Friday, January 01, 2010

May you all have the best possible 2010!

A new year just started. It will be the year of the "metal tiger" in February which apparently has all sorts of implications. The last time there was a "metal tiger " year, I read it was 1950 and that year Delgado Chalbaud was assassinated, Perez Jimenez started his rise to absolute power. We are thus promised plenty of drama this year. Another horoscope says that there will be surprises in the legislative election. Imagine that.....

But the fact of the matter is that the year starts with a massive handicap for Chavez. The economy contracted by 2.9% this year per the numbers of the Central Bank (probably somewhat minimized). Reserves are lower than one year ago. No one can see how oil production can increase significantly since PDVSA has no money to invest. And oil prices increase threaten to be insufficient to compensate for the revenue Chavez needs for his personal worldly ambitions. And of course no one will invest his or her hard earned money knowing full well that nationalization of anything of value lays at the end of the road.

No horoscope is needed to guess that 2010 rhymes with trouble.

Thus you are warned: if you live in Venezuela you can make yours that Chinese greeting (I think it is Chinese) "May you live through interesting times". And if you do not live in Venezuela you may have an easier time than us as long as you can retain your job. Thus my advice for today: stay put and forget about the world for 24 hours. Hopefully some of you will have a hangover to help :)

At any rate may you all receive my best wishes for 2010, along my earnest gratitude for your concern when I was sick. If odds are reasonable after three significant health problems this year I should be good to go for next year, ready to deal with whatever is sent our way. Because a blog is more about its readers than about the authors.


  1. Hi Daniel,

    A Happy en Healthy New Year and that 2010 will brings what you wish for.


  2. Anonymous12:00 PM

    Feliz 2010 Daniel y todos

  3. Here is wishing Daniel and all of the regular commenters on this blog a happy new year.

    Having said that, it is a forgone conclusion that it will not be the best of times for Venezuela. It doesn´t require devine prescience or a crystal ball to predict a train wreck when the two onrushing trains are only 100 meters apart.

  4. 1979 Boat People6:07 PM

    2010 will be a more interesting time in Venezuela and Iran indeed.

    May the opposition gain more strenght to face Thugo as the Iran Green movement has demonstrated to the World recently.

    Freedom to ALL!

  5. Mercedes7:23 PM

    Feliz Año Daniel. Lo mejor del mundo para ti y tu gente querida y sigue recuperándote del susto. Ya pusiste el mosquitero y la tela metálica?

  6. ADOLFO9:46 AM

    Feliz Año Daniel y Foristas espero que el Metal Tiger destruya el muñeco de estiércol que nos oprime.

  7. Happy New Year to all!

    As for Chinese Astrology, I don't know enough about it to have much opinion.

    Metal Tiger sounds sharp and aggressive and reminds me of Blake's poem:

    "In what distant deeps or skies.
    Burnt the fire of thine eyes?
    On what wings dare he aspire?
    What the hand, dare seize the fire?"

    But Astral energy is just the energy of imagination and not the energy of all possibility .Rampant and uncontrolled imagination is very powerful but not as powerful as Will.

    There is always a chance that the ultimate train collision Roy speaks of be avoided.

  8. Lula's problem is that he thinks he is running Brazil like a Populist Banana-republic. The actual government and its policies are very conservative and don't seem to have much foreign policy except for Lula's mouth! Mexico keeps its foreign policy low too. If it did not it would have to deal with a bunch of neighbor countries some the size of a suburb in Mexico City. I don't think either want to Federalize with any of them. The rest in the long run have no choice but to create a EU type government. Chavez has proved his plan won't work and if you look at the new EU president from Spain, even they have a lot of problems to work out.

  9. Anonymous10:32 PM

    Best wishes for a speedy recovery. (Damned bugs!)

  10. la maga lee11:07 AM

    feliz año a todos!

  11. 1979 Boat People2:15 PM

    Hugo Chávez drafted banker in fraud case to fix Cuba's economy, insiders say

  12. Feliz Ano.

    Thanks for you dedication and I hope you have happier news to report in 2010. Glad to have you back and hopefully recovered. All the best to you and Venezuela.


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