Thursday, September 29, 2011

The Chavez cancer circus show

I really do not understand how people let themselves be played around with Chavez cancer.  I mean, is it not obvious that for a couple of months now he has started using his disease has an electoral card?  He has little to show for 12 years of rule. The cancer seems almost a godsend for him as it allows him to play it for the masses as a victim, or a superhero that comes form the grave and what not, incubus included.  That it is successful or not is not the issue, but that he manages to distract political discourse from his failures to his diseases is no mean feat.

Today we had yet another episode as El Nuevo Herald in Miami tells us of kidney failure in Chavez.  That as a consequence of his chemotherapy Chavez may have some temporal kidney problem is not to be surprising.  But El nuevo Herald, as it has done in the past, and considering its Cuban Exile influence, tried to grab the headlines   And succeeded.  It also succeeded unwillingly in giving Chavez an opportunity to promptly attack the private media as congenital liars.

Why do we (well, not me) succumb so easily to such manipulations?  Why do we need to discuss, even to dismiss it, El Nuevo Herald? I even had a reader who sent me an article he published in Facebook on this subject.  The fact of the matter is that I have come to think that Chavez and his Cuban "image" advisers are trying to play all us by releasing true and false "leaks" and see where that does lead them.  Thus in an effort to calm all of you and to try to make you concentrate on more important things such as Venezuelan disaster, the opposition primary and other such assorted worthy undertakings, I am going to list some simple rules to help you keep your mental compass on the fixed North of your choice.

The transition will start only when it starts.  Miguel pointed out that the main thing to watch for is the change in vice-president.  I semi agree with him in that Jaua, obviouly not the successor of choice for Chavez or the Cubans, will leave the vicepresidency anytime soon anyway to run for Miranda Governor.  What would be at the very least equally interesting is who succeeds him.  If it is Maduro then the transition has started (though a couple of other names could be possible depending if they want Maduro to run in lieu of Chavez, for example Jose Vicente to run the country while Maduro runs the campaign, though very, very unlikely). If it is anyone else it means all and nothing.

This is all an internal matter of chavismo.  All the rumors that circulate are more directed toward any possible succession war inside chavismo than any attempt at stirring the opposition into some crazy maneuver.  We are not in 2002 anymore.  The opposition has no way to trigger a coup today.  If there is such a thing as a coup it is a product of Chavez succession wars when one side of chavismo does not get it and cannot accept that another side gets it.  That the coup-mongering side tries to co-opt some inside the opposition is purely cosmetic.  NONE of the main presidential contenders in the opposition would support a coup since it looks more and more likely that the winner of the primary in February will be the winner in October 2012.  Why risk it all to please some corrupt military inside chavismo?

There is panic inside chavismo.  This is of course due to Chavez obvious diseases (whatever incubic cancer this one is in the end).  But it is also due, and people do not realize it quite well, that no matter where in chavistadom you are located, come October 8 2012 there is absolutely no job security for you.  If the opposition wins, it is clear that a boatload of office holders will join the jobless lines.  But if chavismo were to prevail there is little more security.  If Chavez could not run, then if you were not on the side of chavista winner (Maduro, Cabello, etc, etc...) you are in trouble.  But even if Chavez were to be reelected there is little job security because considering the economical situation of the country a few thousand to hundred of thousand of public workers will be laid off.  They all know that and right now there is an effervescence of corruption to finish to pay off debts before October 2012.  When such things are at stake do not be surprised that generating wild rumors inside chavismo is also valid warfare strategy to survive by flushing out the competition through their perceived reaction to rumors.

MY ADVICE?  Stay put, relax, make some popcorn and watch.  If you must, the only worthwhile rumors to follow show up in Venezuelan English Language blogs, Tal Cual or Globovision.  El Universal is too serious for rumors even though it hosts Boccaranda....  The rest, you may consider at your own risks.

18 comments:

  1. Random thought? If Chavez were to die, instead of being re-elected or forcing his way to stay in power, how many Venezuelan lives would be saved? (Not to mention improving general living conditions for most people, shorter live-spans for those hurt by the Chabruto regime)

    That is, if 50 people are killed every week, or whatever, in our country, could that get any worse under any other political system?
    Of course not.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous3:08 PM

    That which we call Chavez, by any other name would smell as foul.

    Juliet

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous3:50 PM

    Como que se le fue la mano. The pity game is over. If he is so pepiaito that he can play softball and give such a vitriolic press conference, then "El Inmortal" should be able to go back to "work" ¿no? He already had enough vacations in Cuba. He better find his "appropiate rhythm" soon. All those houses to be built....

    Gold

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  4. El Chiguire totally gets it:

    http://www.elchiguirebipolar.net/29-09-2011/chavez-esta-sano-pero-se-puso-chimbo/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+elchiguirebipolar+%28El+Chig%C3%BCire+Bipolar%29

    Nothing more to add.

    ReplyDelete
  5. RabbiBulla4:25 PM

    The rumors are distracting everyone away from the
    huge cases for billions against Venezuela -example Exxon..

    ReplyDelete
  6. The worms at the Caracas landfill are salivating at the prospect of dining on the carcass of el supremo!

    ReplyDelete
  7. It's all a big bore to me....people guessing, second guessing, assuming, posturing, imagining....yuck!


    It is quite distracting as well as boring.Some doctors say this, others that...if there is anything that bores me it is a RUMOR :(


    However, most people are quite distracted, and enamored of this most useless pass time. I see people moving farther and farther into the darkness of confusion and distraction until there is just this pinpoint of light, as I sit here staring helpless into the abyss.

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  8. In all honesty, it's really tough to tell. You don't wish bad health on anyone, and I actually sort-of like listening to the Chavez dude at times, I don't think he's evil or anything.. just completely wrong, megalomaniac, and hurting so many people like he has no idea.

    That said, and it's up to the stars, millions of people would be a lot better off if he disappeared ASAP. That's just a fact, especially when you consider people getting killed every day for lack of public security, just to name one thing. I have dear friends in Venezuela still, all in peril and messed up by all his political crap, so screw Chavez. If lightening must strike, why not on his head, or on Castro's head 45 years ago, sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  9. RabbiBulla1:58 AM

    Sledge said-.. "I actually sort-of like listening to the Chavez dude at times, I don't think he's evil or anything"..C'mon man. Just when I was starting to like you all over again- Chavez has robbed the country including the future of billions to build an evil empire that reaches far and wide in this world.It will take many years to fix the damage done.
    (I know-I saw all of the other things you said and I agree- but that one statement-what were you doing?Crying in your beer?

    ReplyDelete
  10. simon7:44 AM

    Daniel, it's funny what you say - and rings true for me. When the cancer story first started I was certain it was a stunt planned for Chavez to gain popularity. There have been many cases of celebrities who are vilified by the public and media, but who suddenly find a huge outpouring of sympathy when they get a terminal disease. I'm still not sure this isn't all a game - he doesn't really look that ill to me and shaved his head before you could notice it falling out from the chemo. One thing that surprises me is the crazy nutcase hasn't tried to blame the yanquis for 'infecting' him somehow as an assassination attempt!

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  11. Charly2:15 PM

    I tend to agree with Sledge, Chavez is not a bad man, he is a world improver. He is invested with a mission to improve our lives. In this capacity, he joins other altruist dob gooders such as Pol Pot, Mao tse tung, Hitler, Stalin, Fidel castro, Musolini and maybe in the near future evo Morales and the other idiot who rules Ecuador.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Anonymous5:33 PM

    Charly said:
    '...and the other idiot who rules Ecuador.'

    Best comment of the week!

    Today is 30-S day celebrating the Raffy fake coup of last year with the police! The dispute was originally over the police wanting a raise.....after this supposed 'coup' Raffy gave all the police a raise!!!!

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  13. This whole scene is beginning to remind me of The Tibetan Book of the Dead, (which can also be applied to life by the way).

    Image after image appears to us, all of which are ONLY illusions. Both good and bad images keep popping up in front of us as angels, demons,or whatever..... but we are supposed to ignore them and keep our eyes on the light and not be fooled by Samsara( these images). The images are not real.

    This is the best explanation I have for what has been happening in Venezuela for years, but now it is so clear cut.

    Time and time again Chavez plays us like a fiddle...we keep looking at the details, and not at the big picture....

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  14. RabbiBulla9:53 PM

    I think in a sense Chavez is pulling a “disappearing act”
    and this is because of the real world is all bad publicity.
    Soon we will not be able to “find Chavez” – as Firepigette
    said- just some images, details, but not the real Chavez..
    In a sense he is -already gone…even though he claims
    he is returning ‘a new Chavez” -swollen, and then shrinking,
    -strange drama,,

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  15. RabbiBulla,

    Has Venezuela ever been just an ordinary place? Never...which might be why I always loved it so much....

    But it's true for anyone to see that this tendency to 'unusual' has blossomed into BIZARRE.

    Daniel should take his diary and write a book at some point.

    Firepigette

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  16. RabbiBulla9:53 PM

    Firepigette, every day with Chavez around is certainly not normal.(I think there is a bit of relief when he travels..but,at the same time you realize he is acting,talking like a fool, making stupid deals-in other countries-putting on a rediculous show.)
    Maybe this illness-the grotesque photos were intended to portray realistic suffering-hard to believe they could be faked, makeup etc. like a Hollywood show??

    Remember the quote"if you tell a lie long enough and loud enough...
    and use enough makeup??

    ReplyDelete
  17. RabbiBulla9:58 PM

    Seriously, is there any doubt
    that Chavez is capable of
    playing tricks and lying to
    everyone?
    Also, personally, I dream of
    a quiet, peaceful Venezuela
    that has become nicely developed
    and working, nice streets, clean country and happy, hospitable
    people -and no military,no weapons-military
    out planting trees and helping
    build housing for poor, etc..

    ReplyDelete
  18. RabbiBulla9:30 AM

    Chavez-speaking about Quadaffi yesterday"who knows where he is, maybe in the desert..."
    Where ever Qadaffi is-he is probably hiding behind women like he has always done (women bodyguards)And,CHavez-he's hiding
    behind his illness-just like Castro did -and it freakin worked!
    Where are all of the people who want Castro impeached, imprisoned
    now.No, it is not cool to "attack
    a sick man"..no, doesn't matter if he is an evil dictator we must pray for him? I disagree.

    ReplyDelete

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