Sunday, January 01, 2012

Patente de corso para Chavez

Patente a Surcouf, siglo XVIII
El año empieza bien para Hugo: ahora sabe que puede nacionalizar y robarse lo que el da la gana.  En Venezuela con venezolanos ya no paga un carajo y con empresas extranjeras el costo va a ser bien bajo.  Como a el la plata no le duele, que le importa si le tiene que pagar unos 900 milloncejos de dolares a Exxon/Mobil cuando en algún momento el propio alcahuete-ladrón mayor en PDVSA decía que no iba a pagar mas de 2500 millones.  Si siguen así ni 1500 millones pagarán una vez que se juzgue lo de la Conoco, y eso si es que pagan porque una cosa es perder un juicio o arbitraje y otra es cumplirlo.  De este punto de vista a Hugo no le importa nada de nada, ni la corte Interamericana ni cualquier arbitraje comercial.

¿Sera que nos alegraremos que Venezuela vaya a pagar menos por las fechorías de Hugo?  ¡Para nada!  Eso es mas plata que ellos se van a poder robar, o repartir para comprar votos (después de cobrar la comisión adecuada por comprar y repartir linea blanca).


Vamos a pensar bien y decir que el arbitraje que no le favoreció mucho a la Exxon/Mobil le devuelva en verdad, digamos, 1,000 millones a Hugo.  ¿Que va a hacer el con esa plata?  Digamos que una casa popular modesta cuesta 50,000 dolares.  ¿Alguno de mis lectores piensa en verdad que se construirán 20,000 casas mas en el 2012?  ¿Sera que con eso le alcanza a terminar un par de estaciones de metro en Maracaibo o Valencia?

Cáiganse de esa mata: parte de la plata que escondían para pagar algo de esos arbitrajes (lo suficiente para que esa gente no joda durante la campaña del 2012 y después pa'l carajo con ellos) será gastada en lavadoras y neveras que le van a costar el país 5000 dolares cada una, pero eso si, incluyendo comisiones y corrupción  +IVA.

Total, que cobre Conoco o Chavez o los 4 pendejos que sí conseguirán casa gratis, el que esta seguro de no cobrar nada soy yo.  Ni siquiera los huecos de la ARC me los van a arreglar ni disminuirán los cortes eléctricos......

9 comments:

  1. Well, here I disagree with you. As much as I find Chavismo disgusting, the one who will have to pay is the people. For you it seems any means is acceptable to win over Chávez. That's sad, Daniel.

    If we are going to win Chávez, it will have to be with the force of our arguments addressed to the +-38% of non-voters and to the Chavistas light, not with expecting further misery to fall on Venezuela.

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  2. Kepler, Could you explain what you are talking about?
    Where did Daniel say that in this article?

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  3. Anonymous3:48 PM

    Bien dicho, Daniel. No puedo dejar de desearte lo mejor del mundo, muchos éxitos y prosperidad en este nuevo año a pesar de la rabieta que tienes. Y agradecerte todos los dias tus posts; no me puedo dormir sin leerte. Impecables tus análisis. Gracias, gracias.
    Mercedes

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  4. cochonette en feu

    thank you for pointing the obvious.

    to which i may add that even 1 USD is too much to pay since if Chavez were not breaking contracts at will we would not be in such quandaries.

    thusly, are we to understand that not only we are supposed to be happy that Venezuela is not going to be paying that much, but in addition we should congratulate Chavez for managing to not pay that much?

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  5. Anonymous1:20 AM

    That's depends Daniel. When CAP Nationalized the oil, it costed a lot of money to the country, but, in the end, it was worth it.

    The question here is if we will have our money's worth or not. That is an open question. If Venezuela is able to get more money with the new forced deal, that's OK. If not, the gamble was lost.

    So far, the gamble has costed Venezuela a lot less than what was supposed to cost. So I don't really get your point here.

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  6. It did not cost that much to nationalize the oil industry, most concessions were expiring.The negotiated value was like US$ 300 million.

    Of course it is worth it. This project generates in earnings US$ hundreds of millions per year. Cerro Negro is 100,000 barrels at $100 per barrel, that is like 3.5 billion per year with large margins (60-70%?).

    These projects were iffy with oil at US$ 10-20, that was the risk then. Buying them on the cheap is a terribly good business for Venezuela, even if they mismanage the project.

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  7. Kepler and whoever it may concern:


    The essence of what is important is embedded in Daniel's question:

    "¿Sera que nos alegraremos que Venezuela vaya a pagar menos por las fechorías de Hugo? "


    The arbitration ruled that there definitely was a breach of contract by Chavez.That is the main point and not the amount awarded.

    Changing contracts with others at will is how Chavez runs his government and what he is constantly doing to the Venezuelan people themselves.

    As long as we don't understand that this moral issue is at the bottom of improving Venezuela or not, everything else is secondary.

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  8. Cochonette en feu

    Again thanks. Somebody gets me :)

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  9. Miguel

    If memory serves me well at the time of these contracts oil was already above 30. Otherwise they would not have signed. There is also taxes on "unexpected windfalls" covering pretty much any oil price.

    So yes, on paper maybe PDVSA is ahead (for now) but since they cannot run the show they will have to pay expensive service contracts. When everything is said and done I wonder if the putative gains will have been worth the image of the country.

    ReplyDelete

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