Monday, February 18, 2013

Chavez: "I am baaaack..."

Except that he cannot have said that since he cannot talk.

Poltergeist: "the return" episode has started, and adequately, in the middle of night, straight to a military hospital, no pictures, nothing. Oh! I forgot, his tweeter is back but if you ask me Tweeter is as close to a Poltergeist experience the web 2.0 offers...... But I digress.

Believe it or not, but I just learned about Chavez return. Well, a couple of hours ago but I did not rush to the computer as I am sure the news is everywhere, and this is a commentary blog, not a news service. I have to confess that for the last year or so I have stopped hitting the news in the morning, or the Net part of my blogging life, preferring to watch sitcom reruns or taped Direct TV shows while I sip my tea. It greatly improves my mental health for the day as bad news will always be there, whether you read them at 6 AM or 6 PM (which is when I read the morning paper). Not that I mean Chavez return is bad news, it is, IMVMO, good news.

The only question I really have is why that Photoshop Phiasco last week if they knew they were going to bring Chavez over this Monday? The charitable answer is that they were preparing the chavista populace to receive a diminished leader. The less charitable option is that the pictures Fail forced their hand to bring Chavez back. The rational answer is that the government illegality is starting to weigh heavily and the Cuban masters and chavista hanger on decided to move the simile corpse to Caracas to straighten the January 9 coup so they can start borrowing money again. If they finish him off, well, too bad. If he makes it, once he is sworn in he can be shipped back to Cuba.

Where are the good news, you may ask me?

Well, for a start the opposition restrain will pay off, in particular for not promoting obviously a presidential candidate. One thing less they will accuse us of, though they certainly will try anything.

Another thing is that this means obviously that now elections are not going to take place until June at the earliest. See, they need to swear him the guy, he needs to name a new cabinet, and only then he can resign to allow for new elections but with his true in pectore successor as vice president, and as president for true during the campaign. Because the biggest surprise of all, for Chavez at least, is that Maduro madness has not caught on at all with chavismo and I would not be surprised that Cubans as well as chavismo are now considering dumping Maduro from the ticket. But those are more complex speculations so let's stop here while we are still ahead of the curve.

And I will leave you with a third piece of good news as of this return: since now it is a 95% bet that there will be no elections until early June at best (sudden croaking being always an option), the ill effects of devaluation and gross mismanagement will start to be felt. This is good for the opposition which has now a few extra weeks to put its house in order for the July municipal elections and for the another election which is coming any time this year. Otherwise why would chavismo go through such theatrics if they were not preparing elections, a referendum or even a constitutional assembly?

Now, isn't that all kinda poltergeisty enough for you?


  1. Anonymous6:43 PM

    Could his return be as simple as: he wants to die at home in Venezuela?

  2. nobody except people right next to him know the truth as i have told my family and friends a 1000 times we can keep people alive for a long time now a days. The opposition and most chavistas should make no assumptions and be ready for all possible and impossible outcomes because they lack real information.

  3. Bobby V8:12 PM

    yadda yadda yadda, whatever the speculation the bottom line is "we'll have chavismo for a loooong time coming". Do any of you believe that the opposition could win a presidential election in March, June, July or whenerver?

    1. So, according to you we should just give up, close this blog, forfeit elections in advance, etc.... Just asking.

    2. Bobby V.5:10 AM

      Not at all Daniel, I would never propose to do what the French are so fond of doing ... waving the white flag.

      You can try elections again and again and again like the demented who try the same thing expecting a different result. You love to explain all the nuances in powerpoints and excel spreadsheets and always pat yourself in the back as to how accurate you were in your predictions. And the bottom line is Chavez is still in power.

      Chavismo is in deep trouble, this is the time to act. The insane tangle web they are weaving with Chavez' health plus the economic situation are the right conditions. If Venezuelans don't rise now and go by the hundreds of thousands in front of the Hospital and demand proof of life and demand a change then you deserve the 14 additional years of Chavismo you are going to get.

      Or you can continue with your powerpoints and spreadsheets. Good luck with that.

    3. Bobby

      Let me start by resenting the cheap and out of place white flag comment that can only come from supine ignorance. Maybe the French fell fast in 1940 but in other wars they have been as aggressive as the US was: 1914, Algeria, Vietnam and currently in Mali where they are left alone, by the way. Not that I defend the war actions but when it comes from someone suggesting hard core tactics to be this misinformed (or is that prejudiced the word I am looking for?) it really kills your argument.

      Not that I cannot kill your arguments in other ways. For example what is the point to go at the hospital and demand proof og life of Chavez? What will we gain from that since it is established that Chavez has left and now what is ruling as a narco system? Should I waste my time waiting for a proof of life that is simply put ridiculous?

      As for snide comments on power points and self patting, at least I am doing something day in and day out, something that has even got me threats from the regime. I do what I can do and already with it I have done quite a lot of damage and I have exposed myself much more than most, probably including yourself. when repression comes big way let's see which one of us will go to jail first.

  4. Boludo Tejano9:45 PM

    Here is the Wall Street Journal take on his return. I don't see any earth-shattering commentary in the article, so I will not bother to paste it in.

  5. Whatever method you use to drink the kool aid from the news font, Daniel, keep it up. Your observations are never so welcomed as they are during these days of insanity.

    1. Well, I try to read only the strict necessary and try to stay away from Poltergeist like Tweeter, ABN or Aporrea. :)

      Kidding aside the regime has been into such a manipulation drive for the last year that I suppose one gets sort of immunized against excesses. Also, the damage that Chavez has done is done, so his demise really will not change much in the short and middle term. So, why panic? We are screwed anyway.

    2. bon point. The thing about Chávez' return is that folks can get lulled into thinking, oh good, at least he's finally left the dreadful Castro brothers. It must mean that full sovereignty has returned. But you and I and lots others know that that is not the case. The puppet master and his brother will not let go, even after Chávez dies. At least not in the foreseeable future. May the students keep pressing with their perfect resistance.

  6. Anonymous3:04 AM

    I see a number of reasons for his return. First, the devaluation is not going over well. Second, Maduro is not going over well with the faithful. Third, Dio is a real problem. Prez dies and Dio and his cronies are in charge? What to do? Well my bet is that TSJ agrees that Chavez can (if he wants) resign AFTER a new president is elected. Its the Crillio way. Si?

  7. Anonymous8:09 AM

    Perhaps the cuban doctors are giving up?

    Go home, get your affairs in order, you've got a few weeks...

    1. That too is a possiblity.

    2. Marc,

      The Cuban doctors are NOT calling the shots here.

  8. Anonymous3:01 AM

    I swear i thought i saw hugo in sunday episode of walking dead!!


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