Thursday, February 07, 2013

The election approaches: the new calendar

With what has been going on in the last two weeks we must deduct the following: Chavez is not coming back to office and elections are coming anytime soon. Very soon. After all it has been now 60, SIXTY, days that we have not heard or seen Chavez and if he is in in recovery by now something would have been seen from him, heard from. For that we know he may actually be dead. Add to this the hysteria of Maduro/Cabello and their despair at ruining the opposition by any means and you know that elections cannot be that far in the future.

Other telltale signs point that way. Once again the electoral board CNE has pushed municipal elections, and to July. Which can only mean one thing, a new government must be put in place sometime in June at the latest so it has a few weeks to prepare the municipal election vote buying system.

Another important detail is that the current CNE becomes invalid in a few weeks and there is no 2/3 national assembly majority to push through a compliant new electoral board. Thus elections have to be held soon, so as to have a CNE not too expired to make elections look sort of legal.

Never mind that the economic situation of the country is fraying fast and that the scarcity index reached unacceptable numbers in January.

I am thus in the need to update my previous calendar of January 12 as follow below.




There are really only two dates left for chavismo to account for what I wrote above. I have crossed in red the dates that cannot be used, the first 4 ones because,  well, Chavez is not officially dead or resigned, and the other because of Venezuelan holidays that could affect abstention wise the regime more than the opposition. Elections must be called for within 30 days of the demise.

Thus there are only 4 Sundays left.

May 5 is the last one because any elections after that can be questioned if a new CNE is not set in place (though of course the constitutional court can step in with any other hackneyed  ruling a la January 9). April 28 follows the same logic though May 5 is better since it is after the May 1 holiday.

March 17 is the closest one at hand. But it requires that Chavez demise be announced next week (these weeks are indicated in green brackets). I like that idea because with the Carnival holiday for which curiously the traditional ban on booze has been lifted, could be used for massive public grieving and alcoholic comfort...

I have crossed April 7 because it is still too close from the Easter week long holiday where campaigning will not be very effective. Thus we have April 14 as the next date available. This one would require an announcement of Chavez demise the week of March 4 at the latest (although the Easter week excuse could be used to add an extra week tot he constitutional requirement of 30 days post presidential croaking for elections).

There you have it, the updated calendar according to current "mood". If by March 10 the end of Chavez is not announced can only mean that this one may actually come back or that they decided to risk a new CNE and hold elections sometime in June. After all today we have received the news of the gerrymandering for the municipal elections so the deed is done and a new CNE simply cannot erase that cheating mess in a few weeks.

OOOOPS!  (Added a few minutes after)I had not checked it all before writing this entry and just found out that the PSUV announced today its primaries for April 7. This pretty much rules out April 14 for a presidential election. since chavismo is not going to detract attention to the presidential election by a silly primary. It means that the vote will be March 17 or May 5 and thereafter. After all the primary is ALSO an indirect way to settle the score between Maduro and Cabello as to who will be the next PSUV candidate.

Interesting development.......

5 comments:

  1. Dr. Faustus10:18 PM

    Two questions:

    (1) Why does Chavez have to be declared 'dead' in order for elections to be called? Why can't he just be 'incapacitated?'

    (2) When does the CNE's current board expire? What date and how will that affect an 'early' election in March?

    Confused....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1) to be incapacitated requires a rather long process that would push the whole thing until June at the earliest. It is easier to die or resign, whichever comes first. Then within 30 days we are supposed to pick his successor.

      2) this is not quite clear. Apparently new CNE has to be named in the next two months or so. Which the conservative date I picked for this entry.

      Delete
  2. doubt Ch is dead. For the smiling faces of daughter #1 (Lula visit) and gallivanting daughter #2 (a esa la han metido más mano que pila de agua bendita) tell me that Chávez is still alive.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I was talking to my friend, a pediatric surgeon in Venezuela, regarding the overwhelming support of the poor for chavez. Having lived in your country for two years during my youth, I can observe the decline of your country while chavez has been ruling. What really infuriates me is that the poor masses continue to believe chavez is alive and that he is not being kepton a slab by the Cubans.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous10:35 AM

      In the Oct election last year, a surprising amount of poor Venezuelans voted for the opposition. The other poor voted for Chavez image rather than his accomplishments.

      Delete

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