Before we start discussing the short lived campaign it may be good to establish a few facts that, from pollsters to journalists through blog readers of this or any other blog, all may want to keep at hand at all times.
I posit that polls are going to be particularly useless at this time.
First, even trackers in one month will have a hard time to "keep track" for which you need to establish a base line. Once Chavez death was announced, you had to rebuild a new base line.
Second, the confrontational way the campaign has started will make public opinion very fluid until eventually it starts decanting, probably a few days before elections, too late for a serious poll.
Last but not least, by any means, the emotional factor. To win the opposition needs a huge abstention inside chavismo. We can assume that the opposition will recover most of its 6,5 million but there has been not enough time since October 2012, not enough economic suffering yet, to increase that number significantly. That is, a large chunk of chavista voters are going to be in some sort of emotional turmoil, voting for Maduro one day, for Capriles the next and abstaining on the third Depending how the emotional cycle catches them on April 14 will determine their vote/nonvote. How do you poll that, reliably?
And a note: considering the dismal track record of ALL posters on October 2012, why would you waste money in a poll, or your time reading its results? (yes, I include Datanalisis that semi guessed the result but did so many blunders in other state polls....)
This campaign is not going to be about electoral promises. The opposition tried its hand in October: the message was received and people voted for Chavez anyway. Does anyone think that a Capriles repeating his potholing fixing speech will make any difference in a flash election?
Yes, there will be plenty of promises made but do not waste time comparing them, analyzing their plausibility: we all know what this election is all about and promises will have limited impact, at best. After all, that chavismo has not fulfilled a single of the promises made by Chavez 4 months ago does not seem to affect anything.....
If you thought you saw electoral cheating before, you ain't seen no nothing. Just from the start we can score: 1) the CNE announcement to strictly favor chavismo interests, 2) that the CNE did not do a thing to secure Capriles arrival for registration when chavista thugs were barring all accesses 3) that the CNE ignores already all the electoral material that chavismo had ready before Chavez croaked. and 4) many other hints...
I let you guess on what comes next from the CNE....
This time around I can assure you that in any table where the opposition does not have a 24/24 witness, there will be 100% voting and 100% voting for Maduro.
Why should I even bother getting started?
From the local levels since so many states have new governors, to the macro level where the crying vote is the norm, what's the use?
I will probably do a general estimation of possible abstention in a week or two and that will be it. It is better this time around to cover in detail all the CNE cheating to establish a case, should we need one.