Thursday, March 28, 2013

Can Capriles win?

Maybe that should be two entries: "Can Capriles win?" and "Should Capriles win?". Since tonight is Maundy Thursday let's assume that we have met some form of redemption and that indeed there is a chance for Capriles to win. What would be the conditions?

First, it is clear that Capriles campaign is the one making the news while the Maduro one makes the negative news. Not that in a recently still heavily messianic country this matters much but one thing seems clear, it looks like Capriles may make it to at least his October number whereas Maduro is not likely to make it to Chavez last score. Thus the first condition: Capriles makes it to his October number, 6.6 million votes.

I think that the opposition is in a revival of sorts and the abstention sirens are fading some. Also, it is clear that Maduro is not making unanimity in his camp. It is not that far-fetched that the opposition votes Capriles may lose may be made up by some chavistas getting tired of the whole thing, in particular the blackmailed ones finding new nerve. Thus 6.6 millions it is.

The second condition is that Maduro cannot capitalize on the sympathy vote as he hopes too. It is not idle to remind the reader that when Chavez was not directly in the ballot his scores where lower and he even lost twice (2007, 2010). No matter how big the emotional manipulation  this one is not guaranteed to bring all the faithful to the ballot box, and, may even backfire. Allow me to remind you a post barely a week old where I expressed my doubts as to the existence of a true sympathy vote. That would be no more than 6.1 million votes (deducted from the tables in a three days old entry).

Of course Maduro may still overcome that difference as I explained, but it is not as easy as one would have been thinking a week ago.

For all its power, the "drive in the vote machinery" of chavismo has its limitations. Just to go and fetch 100,000 voters at least 10.000 vehicle doing a round trip with an average of 10 voters per truck. Certainly possible but still a daunting task to do when the paid folks that do the work may be asking more than 6 months ago while they are less motivated.

Blackmailing has its limits. Once Chavez is gone and once it is becoming clearer that the regime is not working as well as it did under Chavez  repression wise, less people will be scared to vote for the opposition, or stay at home. After all they may just decide to leave home of the day least someone comes knocking at their door. Electoral hookie if you please.

Etc...

This was all well explained by Semtei on TV last night but with rosier numbers. When I looked at mine I still agreed that a Capriles victory is possible. But then again I thought it possible last October if abstention was high. We all know what happened.  The question here is whether Maduro can pull it off. I think he still can but I am advancing now that he will get at least 1 million less votes than Chavez. That is, I am putting my neck forward that Maduro is not going to get more than 7.2 million votes.

So right now Capriles 6.6 and Maduro 7.2. Two weeks of campaign left......

23 comments:

  1. Anonymous6:55 AM

    "The opera isn't over until the fat lady sings"

    Two weeks left and Maduro is very worried, making mistakes, losing ground, and probably not attracting new votes.

    Get opposition representatives at all voting mesas.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous8:39 AM

    Chavismo has been busy for weeks with government employees set up in rooms calling down the electorial registry list to pressure voters to commit their vote. Who will say on that phone call that they will not vote for maduro? In this government, that yes is as good as a physical vote in the box. To think that chavismo mobilized transport for 8 million voters is naive. What they did do was actually shut down public transport in October, reserving the buses for that day which sat idle making it difficult for Capriles votes to make it to ballot. With the CNE in pocket, that is the scenario. If actual votes were counted and respected, the outcome in October would have been much different. Count on a similar outcome from tibesy unless the vote count behind closed doors is not monitored.

    concerned

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have direct solid evidence?

      Delete
  3. "it is clear that Capriles campaign is the one making the news" ...but is that news filtering down to the voters? ...the ones who don't have Globovision?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, you measure that on the attacks Maduro feels compelled to do.

      Delete
  4. Anonymous10:29 AM

    I know as fact about the government employees calling down the electoral roll again as in September. I know as fact about the reserved and idle public transport in october. That chavismo mobilized in the last hours to obtain more than 8 million votes is not realistic. The lines were not there in the polls of that magnitude. That chavismo won Zulia, Nueva Esparta and Anzoategui are not realistic. That was just a definitive power statement to insure control of oil and ports, and eliminate the opposition strongholds. That chavez controled tibesey and the cne is common knowlege. All mixed together to combine my opinion or conspiracy theory. I could be wrong, but maybe not..........

    concerned

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please, quantify or at least give us plausible number theory.

      Delete
  5. Island Canuck11:06 AM

    Concerned: Are you saying that in states like Nueva Esparta where there were oppo witnesses on every table that there was fraud & the opposition said nothing?

    I don't believe that - sorry.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Island

      Thank you.

      The line of reasoning of concerned reminds me of those that swear, proof in hand!, that neither egyptians nor mayas were able to build pyramids on their own and that some anti gravitational beam had to be wielded by some extra terrestrial. The extraterrestrial was duly depicted either as the Sphinx or Pacal.

      Delete
    2. Charly2:18 PM

      Do you mean to say that where there are oppo witnesses fraud is not possible. Would you mind to develop the idea so as to enlighten me? Thanks

      Delete
    3. To me?

      Oppo witness are no guarantee. But at least chavista have to bribe them. Without witnesses it is a free for all.

      Delete
    4. Charly12:22 PM

      OK, so it won't be a free for all, little bit of discipline helps. Yet, who knows what is going on in these machines, even less behind the closed doors of the CNE, which way is the data traveling between the CNE and he voting stations etc, etc, Only way to ensure that the vote will be free, fair and secret is to go back to pencil and paper, then the only possibility of fraud will be the traditional ballot stuffing that can be prevented by having oppo witnesses. All the rest is wishful thinking. Listen to what the newly sanctified jerk said repeatedly; the oppo will never get back in power. Are these empty words, rodomontades? I personality take him very seriously. The oppo should devote all its effort to dismantle the CNE, nothing short of that will ensure this country will ever go back the path of democracy.

      Delete
  6. Anonymous11:10 AM

    I think there should not be elections at all. The country is so messed up that Venezuela should wait and let it collapse that way the same chavistas might realize what a terrible mistake was to think that Chavez and his gang were "enviados de dios" the only difference is that this will only allow Maduro and the remaining corrupt chavistas in power to flee the country and hide their fortune. If Capriles wins he will have such a hard time to remain in power and 50% of the people will blame on him all the disgrace the country is in now and Chavez will continue to be the hero.

    I vote for Maduro so I can see the how the hell he is going to solve all the misery that the country is in now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you for such an enlightening and constructive statement. Now we know why chavismo has held sway for 14 years, and obviously counting.

      Delete
  7. Anonymous11:20 AM

    With he CNE we have, why does everyone still believe Capriles can win? Come on, do not be so naive. Really are we so dumb and blind.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With all due respect the dumb ones may be those who think that reading the title of the post is enough to zap a comment.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous7:44 PM

      Hey Daniel, no reason to be ofensive, nobody is dumb here.It is not that I did not read the full article, but you base your analysis on the premise that we still a fair and "democratic" system like the one we grew up in (with a totally fair CNE). I totally respect your view. Very positive view, if the playing field was all equal, which is not. I do sincerely hope that by whatever reason/miracle Capriles would win, but I stand by my comment, Really, are we still so dumb and blind?

      Delete
  8. Anonymous12:46 PM

    Who doesn't believe in extra terrestrials? :) Maybe the same ones who don't believe that chavez had to be restrained and medicated after he choked tibesy by the neck after Baduel and the military forced her to report the real vote count when chavez lost the first referendum. Soon after Baduel is in prison and the military was overhauled in leadership and salary. The rest is history, and also why chavismo is really not that scared about April 15.

    concerned

    ReplyDelete
  9. Electoral hookie if you please.

    Heh, serious US American archao-slang there... I'm impressed. :)

    ReplyDelete
  10. Can Capriles win? OF COURSE not. Maduro and his accomplices will CHEAT. Much like Chavistas always bribe, cheat, pay off people and buy them stuff all the time. Let's wake up, people, Capriles has ZERO chance, unfortunately.
    CI

    ReplyDelete
  11. Even with th e terrible economy, rampant inflation, most of the uneducated, poor people are getting bribed and gifted with cheap stuff. That's more than they've ever gotten before Chavismo. And even a step further here, many people, especially from the mid-higher classes, 90% left Venezuela a long ago not to get killed for decent watch or a pair of shoes. So what they have left, are mostly uneducated, bribed people, who will vote mostly for the thugs like Maduro, just to keep getting a piece of the pie.

    And Maduro and the rest will stop at nothing just to get the power and the $$$$ involved.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Plus I'm, afraid that the next generation of "bolivarianos, socialistas, chavistas" is going to be even worse that the 14 dreadful years with Chavez.. It's going to continue to be a lying Dictatorship, an authoritarian regime, except with less funny monkeys in power as Chavez was.

    ReplyDelete
  13. margareth5:56 PM

    6.6 million votes last October. Campaign of Capriles was not that aggresive as now. His speeches are much much better. He moved the students. I say 6.6 million in October + many more millions added in april.
    No doubt he will win this time!!! And that will be a big surprise.

    ReplyDelete

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