Friday, June 28, 2013

Brinkmanship and fatherland: will Maduro charge against students tomorrow?

One thing quite remarkable, in a perverse way, is that since we are told that Maduro has assumed power last December, no major decision has been taken by the regime, outside of a devaluation that came without any de rigueur measures to try to make the best of it. If it is clear that the regime is practicing some form of macroeconomic adjustment while trying to hide it, and thus we know little of its details, less of its scope while on any regards it is not working. The reason behind that secrecy is that the power struggle to replace Chavez is far from resolved so no one among his heirs wants to be seen as responsible from the bad news even though by not taking charge or attempting some form of coherence they are making things worse.

And thus violence seems the last option for the regime.

I suppose that the threats made by Maduro yesterday against the autonomous universities students and faculties march of tomorrow were a foretold conclusion after what was said last week end. It was a long week end because on Monday we commemorated Carabobo, our Yorktown for those who know US history. The ceremonies take place at the battle field shrine and used to be Chavez favorite. Maduro tried to look the big leader with little success; however he announced that corruption would devour the revolution and that some were trying the ridicule the fatherland concept as understood by chavismo.

The meta message was elsewhere. What the regime announced was that it was loosing patience with two groups: those inside chavismo that had other interests than those of the leadership, and the opposition who refuses to recognize Maduro, a fortuitous coincidence that is making Maduro's life quite unbearable.

The corruption salvo was to convince us that Chavez was the first president that managed scrupulously the moneys of the nation and thus any corrupt person is anti chavista. I am not going to insult the intelligence of the readers by reminding them why the chavista regime has been the most corrupt in Venezuela's history. We are not Maduro's audience. What Maduro is doing here is trying to shed away from him a corruption that cannot be hidden anymore, by either putting it on the opposition or making the corrupt faction that opposes him (Cabello et al.) as an opposition by themselves. The veracity of the charges is inconsequential here, as we were reminded again this week with yet another piped hearing for Lara's governor Falcon alleged corruption. No, the corruption charges mean that the regime faction around Maduro is prepared to play dirty to get rid of his opposition, and dirty here means illegality and violence and massive lies.

The fatherland salvo was in large part forced upon Maduro because of the idiotic and yet purposeful words the prior day of Jaua in his revenge seeking quest against Capriles for beating him in December elections. Jaua under pressure by his own chavista audience told them that it did not matter that they were out of toilet paper because now we have fatherland. That is right, besides saying that Capriles could f***k himself with a roll of missing toilet paper he told his audience that the fatherland of the revolution could not be measured against empty shelves. You can watch a video here if you doubt me (in Spanish, sorry). Certainly this P.R. disaster had to be recovered and Maduro who claimed that an opposition fascist and corrupt was ridiculing the notion of fatherland that Chavez left the country with.

In other words last week end we were told clearly that those who continue to oppose Maduro are traitors tot eh fatherland, fascists and corrupt, amen that Maduro and his people are the ones acting like fascist and corrupt by the mere way in which they proffer those accusations. The rest of the week has been a confirmation of this, from a cadena by Maduro to a pathetic scene on Globovision airwaves where a minster of Maduro attacked in an hysterical way governor Falcon insulting him of many things and fascists proffered several times. In any normal country a minister that behaves like Izarra is IMMEDIATELY fired but in Venezuela we wonder up to what point the hysterics were not planed to carry the point that the regime is about to pass on the offensive.

The escalation went as high as Maduro threatening the striking universities tomorrow if they dared march in protest. He went as far as singling out Leopoldo Lopez as the leader behind the university strike, as if he had such power.  Of course an undaunted Lopez not only called all to go Saturday to protest, but went as far as telling Maduro to stop being such a coward.

It seems that the regime is starting to get really nervous. Maduro gets no respect from any quarter and we can genuinely wonder how can he rule for 5 more years when he is covered in such a pile of ridicule. Also, after what happened in Brazil the regime certainly understands that probably Venezuela is tinder that has yet to find its match. Something has to be done and in the current situation, with no dollars, with no will to announce the measures to be taken, with a protest that grows by the way around real grievances, from lack of toilet paper to the asphyxia of autonomous universities the regime must feel cornered enough to feel ready to use violence.

But Maduro has boxed himself. If he represses the protest tomorrow he will become an instant pariah world wide. If he does not repress he risks to have chavismo look for one who will get the job done. I guess we will find out soon if that renewed fascist posturing of the regime means business.


  1. Anonymous8:31 AM

    What is sad is that once again the students will become front line cannon fodder. Make sure the cameras are rolling so that maybe their sacrifices won't be in vain.


  2. Anonymous9:00 AM

    the "fatherland" Sounds very historical referring to the 1930's Germany. Their seem to be many similarities. Repression, singling out certain groups and alot of hot air

    1. fatherland has some strange historical overtones in the English language, not so in Spanish, where the word "patria" is routinely used, in democratic or autocratic climates.

    2. It might be referring to Venezuelanos from before the bourgeoisie invaders that have taken over the country.

  3. watching with interest the strength from López ...

  4. Charly11:31 AM

    I have come to the conclusion that Maduro is a "pussy", all bark and no teeth. The local Yorktown hoopla last week was quite educative, Cabello received the honors, Maduro just standing there like the moron he is. As for Henri Falcon, let's not think for one minute he is a saint. He is a Chavista turned sour but a Chavista nevertheless in is wheelings and dealings. He had to clean up his act because his every move is being watched by officialdom. I went to visit the famous flower three or four years ago. In a word: pathetic, among others, the fish had just died. Transbarca, that is him. The bus terminal that started sinking into the ground, that is also him. When he was Chavista mayor of Barquisimeto and Reyes Reyes Chavista governor of Lara, Reyes pleaded with him to put the brakes on the amount of corruption he was handling, go figure.

    I come more and more to the conclusion there are two politicians worth listening to these day, Aria and Medina and perhaps Machado if she can shut her trap at the right time.

    1. Correction: Aria = Diego Arria

    2. agree with you regarding Arria: Cogent, obviously experienced, and with an historical, insider perspective shared by few Vz politicians, today.

      also agree with you re MCM.

      I don't know enough about Medina to opine.

  5. Will it ever implode or explode? Or will the mess continue to fester indefinitely?

    1. My guess is that festerin' is more likely.There are too many 'enchufados'.


  6. While Carabobo and Yorktown end the conflicts, it is what started it that is important. I think the Boston Massacre and other events that galvanize opposition are more important. The same can be said for France, Spain and most any country. We teach it in schools. Of course those who don't learn the lessons of history are bound to repeat them!

  7. margareth4:17 PM

    Just read on Globovision: "El ministro de la Defensa, Diego Molero, indicó que para el 4 de julio están previstos los ascensos desde tenientes coroneles hasta generales de división"

    This can cause "Fire fire in the wire wire"

  8. I haven't seen any news at all of what happened at this protest, or if it happened. What happened?

    1. The government decided to stay put, limiting itself to force the students to change their march route. they also did their own march where public employees were forced to attend.

  9. Meanwhile ... I wonder if Snowden will be traveling to Cuba, courtesy of Maduro and Cubana de Aviación. For, as Casto Ocando ‏@cocando dixit:

    Maduro volvió a viajar Caracas-Moscú por Cubana de Aviación, en mismo Ilyushin IL-96-300 que usó en Roma-Lisboa-París. Matrícula CU-T1250.


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