Wednesday, February 05, 2014

Rafael Poleo is ever so irritating, but maybe quite right

Rafael Poleo is a journalists already mentioned in this blog who has a long trajectory as a pro AD operative, which has eventually landed him into exile about three years ago when he said on TV that Chavez's end would resemble the one of Mussolini. He was wrong, but in an unexpected way. Still, from Miami he does what he can to keep abreast of Venezuelan politics, but I suspect that he relies more on his historical knowledge than what actually transpires. Whether you love or loathe him, his columns are considered by some as a must read in El Nuevo Pais or Zeta.

Today a title of El Nuevo Pais drew my the attention at the newsstand and I bought it to read a special analysis of the current political situation he penned. I am unfortunately afraid that I agree with him in a lot of points. The paper is not on line so I am putting a pic below for those willing to read it.

The point of his piece is very simple: considering the current economic crisis there are plenty inside the regime that are willing to negotiate an exit and plenty in the opposition willing to do so. And the military is the deciding factor. The interest of the column, besides his febrile tone, is that for once Poleo gives some names, instead of his usual silence on names which detracts a lot of his texts.

For those who cannot read Spanish (with my comments):

Maduro is an historical accident, chosen not for his competency (they knew he had none) but for his dog like loyalty to Cuba.
Elections last December were bought including paying bribes to some opposition "leaders" (no names of course).
Chavez main reason to ruin the economy was to try to stop the rise of Diosdado and his corrupt business cronies (so why is Diosdado so servile in his praises still? Is he really cool with that destruction?)
There is no money left because the need to buy elections through loans and the panicky corruption just in case those elections would be lost broke an equilibrium point of sorts (Poleo is right on one thing: desperate last minute looting sped up Armageddon, but did not cause it).
The expiration date of the regime may be counted in weeks (I can tell readers that my business will close down late March if the regime does not approve importation of raw material, like, tomorrow).
Part of the opposition (Capriles and PJ) are so afraid of a military dictatorship that Jose Vicente Rangel (local hyper corrupt Machiavelli) is convincing them to negotiate something (why are they so afraid? Don't they know we are ALREADY under a military regime?). Poleo even suggests that the Spanish PP is behind that negotiation as it is also somewhat in the Cuban transition negotiation (the PP is idiotic enough for that, I am afraid to say...)
He says that AD-COPEI may also be involved in some form of negotiations, hand in hand with the Church determined to avoid a blood bath at all costs.
The army is in trouble because there are those from each side that think the army would be the perfect expiation sacrifice. But the army may have moved already enough of its trump cards to be in a position to ousts Maduro without much trouble (a birth certificate from Colombia?)
The army is looking towards a "Honduras coup" rather than a "Chile coup" modality. That is, the coup has to come from the civilian with a legal basis and then the army lends its support.
The stumbling block for a final agreement is Ramirez, the PDVSA chief that ruined it and allowed for the looting of the country. He and his combo know that if they leave office they go to jail and so they are there until the bitter end, unless the negotiation manages to find an escape for them. And that escape can only be through blaming Chavez, with an ancillary Maduro.

So there you have it, nothing that this blogger has not said at some point or another in the last couple of years. But it is nice to see it in full print  :)

Title, column 1 and the 2 other ones. Click to enlarge. El Nuevo Pais is not on line for free. Apologies for them for this act of piracy.


  1. Like the new layout, not certain of the color.

    1. Maybe a little red white and blue? :-)

    2. Maybe a little yellow, blue, red? :-) for what is left of it...

    3. Anonymous8:19 PM

      'Like the new layout, not certain of the color.'

      That's why you are Half Empty and not Half Full ;)

      Daniel - Vive le changement


  2. Hola Daniel, very modern looking, less busy design, but I miss a bit of the old colors.

  3. Anonymous8:53 AM

    Why would the chavistas negotiate with the opposition a transition? The opposition does not hold any power at all?

    1. When the country is on the verge of economic collapse and starvation you need to negotiate with the opposition in order to avoid massive riots and worse things. In Libya and Syria and Ukraine the opposition was "powerless" and look at what happened.

  4. After reading the article, I can say that I have a hate/love thingy for Poleo. But certaninly something has to happen -good or bad- in this country, the situation is unsustainable for much long. By situation a mean everything: the economy, the insecurity, the lack of food!

  5. Good gawd! Where did Daniel's blog go?! :-)

  6. Anonymous10:36 AM

    "The expiration date of the regime may be counted in weeks (I can tell readers that my business will close down late March if the regime does not approve importation of raw material, like, tomorrow)."

    In weeks? You'll have to explain that a little bit more. The Venezuelans appear to have taken on a Cuban-like docile trance. Revolutions stat with a tinder box....

    1. Exactly. With the right fuse it could all blow up tomorrow.

      It may start with major looting of grocery stores in weeks as the shelves are getting emptier and emptier and people are getting quite, shall I say, frisky there....

  7. In Honduras the opposition had a majority in Congress which allowed it to remove the president through legislative means but in Venezuela all the outlets of power are totally controlled by the government, both legislative and judicial, and they even have the majority among regional and local governments, so there is no legal means of removing the president.The fact that Maduro is Colombian is not enough to unify the army against him.Whichever way you look at it there are bound to be a sizable group of Chavistas in the army who are benefited from the corruption and would resist any attempt against the government.firepigette

  8. Most of us are allergic to change.

    I love this blog, and as soon as I see (in my mind) only the articles and comments, I will have become framiliar and comfortable with the alterations. And since a change is coming soon to Venezuela, why not a simple metamorphosis in this great blog too.

    1. Good to see that some are getting the big picture :-)

  9. Anonymous1:11 PM

    The blog is much easier on my old eyes now. Thanks for the change.

  10. Charly2:14 PM

    The thing that cheeses me off is that the culprits will literally get away with murder and possibly be decorated. It happened before e.g. France after the 2nd word war. Those who had their businesses expropriated will be screwed for good. Here in Miami, a Venezuelan who shows up with at least one million dollars to invest gets a green card, no questions asked, and who has at least one million dollars these days in the Bolivarian paradise? Make a wild guess At least in Argentina some of these parasites had a useful ultimate purpose, i.e. to feed the crabs, these poor animals need to live too.

  11. Juan Cristóbal2:49 PM

    Epa Daniel. Primero que nada, me gusta el cambio, ya el color mostaza había pasado de moda. En cuanto a Poleo ... ¿qué te hace pensar que esto hay que tomarlo en serio? ¿El régimen va a colapsar en semanas? Chamo, no sé pero mucho conspiracy theory for breakfast.

    Por otra parte, esto: "Part of the opposition (Capriles and PJ) are so afraid of a military dictatorship that Jose Vicente Rangel (local hyper corrupt Machiavelli) is convincing them to negotiate something" me parece notable, de ser cierto. Qué bueno que estén tratando de evitar un baño de sangre... No creo que estén negociando con Rangel, pero sí creo que Capriles entiende que la situación requiere mayor cautela que la que están mostrando López y Ma.Corina.

    1. Bueno, Poleo hay que lavarle siempre algo de amarillo a sus textos antes de vestirlos....

      Lo que si es interesante es que su "modelo" es coherente. Que sea cierto todo o algo o nada es otro asunto, pero por lo menos tiene coherencia en los postulados y la trama. Lo que hoy en días de gritería y miedo e histeria es casi refrescante.

      Gracias por aprobar la renovación. Es que estuve entrampado en un naranja que tuve que cambiar y no pude reproducir sino como una mostaza raro. El design era una institución que me dominaba... Esperemos que nuestros cambios sean precursores de los cambios que en verdad queremos.

      No puse nada en tu pagina porque como cada día van llegando cosas nuevas estoy esperando. Pero se ve bien y tienes un tronco de elenco. Ahora te toca arrear el ganado, good luck with that :)

  12. Anonymous4:48 PM

    Esto lo escribió Petkoff, que no es dado a amarillismos ni miedos histéricos, y es casi palabra por palabra lo que hubiera querido escribir yo en respuesta a "qué te hace pensar que esto hay que tomarlo en serio" (for what is worth).

    "En dos platos, Diosdado sugiere que hay en marcha una conspiración, ante la cual, el remedio, como siempre, es el de aconsejar "la unidad". "Tenemos que unirnos", dice Cabello, pero, alerta, "unidos de verdad, sin zancadillas, sin chismes".

    Más claro no canta un gallo. De las palabras del capitán retirado, pero que conoce ese, su mundo, se puede inferir que hoy la FAN es un hervidero de "chismes y zancadillas". Sólo faltan ­si es que no las ha habido ya­ aquellas inefables "trompadas estatutarias" a que hiciera referencia Gonzalo Barrios, hace mil años, ante una de las frecuentes trifulcas internas en su partido, que solían solventarse a puñetazo limpio y uno que otro tirito.

    En su no tan críptica exhortación, el capitán Cabello sugiere la presencia de "traidores". "El que quiera traicionarnos", advierte que se va a estrellar contra "el pueblo unido". "Traidores" hay, pues, porque Diosdado no se anda por las ramas y llama al pan, pan y al vino, vino.

    De hecho, advirtió otra posibilidad: que hay gente en la FAN que pretendería separarla del pueblo, para "aliarla con la burguesía". No es propiamente con balines de flower que disparó Diosdado sino con salvas de cañón.

    Que un personaje de su envergadura (presidente de la Asamblea Nacional, vicepresidente del partido) haya dicho lo que dijo sugiere que como reza la vieja canción federal, "el cielo encapotado anuncia tempestad". No habla de gratis Diosdado"


  13. Boludo Tejano7:17 PM

    This is a visible improvement over the boldface in the comments that existed for some time.

    No rest for the wicked blog readers: Daughters of Hugo Chavez Still Living in Presidential Palace, Refuse to Move Out:
    Just when you thought that the news from Caracastan could not get any more ridiculous, along comes this item, revealed by Spain's indefatigable dirt-digging newspaper, ABC.

    Yes, the headline above says it all. Rosa Virginia and María Gabriela Chavez continue to occupy "La Casona" in Caracas, Venezuela's official presidential residence, even though their father Hugo has been dead since the 3rd of March 2013, nearly a full year ago.

    Meanwhile, Nicolas Maduro, the current nominal president and former vice-president, is still living in the vice-presidential mansion he occupied while Chavez was still alive. But maybe the Chavez girls think this is only proper, since the real ruler is Raul Castro in Havana.

    An ironic twist adds even more absurdity to this arrangement: as it turns out, Rosa Virginia, the eldest of the two "infantas", or "princesses" -- as they are known in Caracastan -- is married to Jorge Arreaza, the current vice-president of Venezuela.

    So, to recap: the nominal president of Venezuela is living in the vice-presidential mansion while the nominal vice-president resides in the presidential mansion, along with the daughter of the previous nominal president.

    Like they say, don't know whether to laugh or to cry.

  14. Anonymous10:30 PM
    If you bloggers would be the leaders, though u certainly

    a boot the color whats next years? ;P


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