Rafael Poleo is a journalists already mentioned in this blog who has a long trajectory as a pro AD operative, which has eventually landed him into exile about three years ago when he said on TV that Chavez's end would resemble the one of Mussolini. He was wrong, but in an unexpected way. Still, from Miami he does what he can to keep abreast of Venezuelan politics, but I suspect that he relies more on his historical knowledge than what actually transpires. Whether you love or loathe him, his columns are considered by some as a must read in El Nuevo Pais or Zeta.
Today a title of El Nuevo Pais drew my the attention at the newsstand and I bought it to read a special analysis of the current political situation he penned. I am unfortunately afraid that I agree with him in a lot of points. The paper is not on line so I am putting a pic below for those willing to read it.
The point of his piece is very simple: considering the current economic crisis there are plenty inside the regime that are willing to negotiate an exit and plenty in the opposition willing to do so. And the military is the deciding factor. The interest of the column, besides his febrile tone, is that for once Poleo gives some names, instead of his usual silence on names which detracts a lot of his texts.
For those who cannot read Spanish (with my comments):
Maduro is an historical accident, chosen not for his competency (they knew he had none) but for his dog like loyalty to Cuba.
Elections last December were bought including paying bribes to some opposition "leaders" (no names of course).
Chavez main reason to ruin the economy was to try to stop the rise of Diosdado and his corrupt business cronies (so why is Diosdado so servile in his praises still? Is he really cool with that destruction?)
There is no money left because the need to buy elections through loans and the panicky corruption just in case those elections would be lost broke an equilibrium point of sorts (Poleo is right on one thing: desperate last minute looting sped up Armageddon, but did not cause it).
The expiration date of the regime may be counted in weeks (I can tell readers that my business will close down late March if the regime does not approve importation of raw material, like, tomorrow).
Part of the opposition (Capriles and PJ) are so afraid of a military dictatorship that Jose Vicente Rangel (local hyper corrupt Machiavelli) is convincing them to negotiate something (why are they so afraid? Don't they know we are ALREADY under a military regime?). Poleo even suggests that the Spanish PP is behind that negotiation as it is also somewhat in the Cuban transition negotiation (the PP is idiotic enough for that, I am afraid to say...)
He says that AD-COPEI may also be involved in some form of negotiations, hand in hand with the Church determined to avoid a blood bath at all costs.
The army is in trouble because there are those from each side that think the army would be the perfect expiation sacrifice. But the army may have moved already enough of its trump cards to be in a position to ousts Maduro without much trouble (a birth certificate from Colombia?)
The army is looking towards a "Honduras coup" rather than a "Chile coup" modality. That is, the coup has to come from the civilian with a legal basis and then the army lends its support.
The stumbling block for a final agreement is Ramirez, the PDVSA chief that ruined it and allowed for the looting of the country. He and his combo know that if they leave office they go to jail and so they are there until the bitter end, unless the negotiation manages to find an escape for them. And that escape can only be through blaming Chavez, with an ancillary Maduro.
So there you have it, nothing that this blogger has not said at some point or another in the last couple of years. But it is nice to see it in full print :)
Title, column 1 and the 2 other ones. Click to enlarge. El Nuevo Pais is not on line for free. Apologies for them for this act of piracy.