No break even for lunch. Turning on I learn that Ramon Guillermo Aveledo has resigned his chair at the head of the MUD.
Of course from twitter we get everything from praise the lord, about time, to fewer thanks for a job well done. I am in the later sets even though in past months Aveledo had more misses than hits.
For those late in the game, Aveledo was the umpire in the opposition alliance in the MUD. As such his role was to shepherd a coalition of democratic groups that shared a profound alienation to the anti democratic nature of Chavez and the regime that succeeded him. Unfortunately that was all that the coalition shared, as Fausto Maso happens to point out yesterday in El Nacional, having the merit to state clearly what we all know that one thing is to be anti chavista and another not to have an inner chavista.
As a consequence of its nature the MUD and its candidates could not offer a clear cut program of changes for the country. That worked up to a point as long as Chavez was alive since the fight there was more about personality and abuse rather than development theories. And thus integrity and opportunism could coexist inside the MUD. But Chavez gone this coexistence was not possible anymore. On one side there were people with convictions and the willingness to stand for them. On the other those who thought that it was all a matter of time and that it was enough to slowly recover the disgruntled chavista vote. Faced with a frontal thugocracy the differences deepened.
Aveledo is a man of democratic convictions and substantial negotiating skills. That served him well when the opposition recovered and grew to become a majority in April 2013. We shall ever be grateful for his brilliant role until then. But that victory was also the beginning of the end of the Aveledo system. With a Capriles that was in the ranks of the opportunists and the bulk of the MUD wondering whether it was worth taking over government considering the crisis ahead, I think that Aveledo started overruling his convictions to appear more like a compromiser. As such all decided to accept the electoral fraud of April 2013 that became unassailable after the political mistakes at the root of the December 2013 local elections setbacks. Thus the MUD became unmanageable as conviction and opportunity could not coexist anymore under the directing wand of Aveledo.
Even though Aveledo strikes some rather undignified notes in his resignation speech, his departure had become inevitable as the radical opposition was on the verge of breaking away, sinking the chances for all. But it is also my opinion that the Capriles/Aveledo model has run its course and that after 3 electoral set backs in a row, no matter how nicely worded the notice is and no matter the positive signs coming along, the model was exhausted, the label of loser inescapable.
It is unavoidable: the opposition needs to have its unitary model evolve and needs to adopt some clear positions behind which all will stand. The time of love and kisses is gone, whether we chose to accept it. The paradox is that the slow but certain sinking of chavismo may allow the opposition to split and solve its difference though internal elections without major damage. Capriles and Aveledo, deservedly or not, had started to be seen as an obstruction.
Now we can just hope that after the democratic example of Aveledo withdrawal of the front line (he will remain inside the MUD) that people much more destructive than Aveledo ever was will take heed and do the same. You know who you are Ramos Allup and Ramon Jose Medina.