Friday, October 30, 2015

Does chavismo want an election? (election 2015 YV-2)

Count me in those who still doubt that there will be elections on December 6. I cannot see the regime going through elections unless it is certain that the opposition will not get more than 90 seats (about 55%). With that number it should not be too difficult for the regime to lure away enough opposition representatives to recover a weak majority within a year or two. Considering the complete control over everything else, the regime thinks that this is the worst case scenario they are willing to accept.


Unfortunately all polls indicate that 90 may actually be the opposition floor and that in spite of everything the opposition could reach 100 seats (about 61%). That number still far from the needed 66% majority to change things in the country is still high enough that the National Assembly could exert some controls and launch some damaging investigations.  Investigations that of course the regime cannot tolerate, nor dodge. What is worse for the regime is that if the opposition gets 100 or more seats then it is not that unlikely for some chavista to defect to the opposition side if the parliamentary investigations become too spicy. After all Venezuelan politicians are not known for their admirable qualities of sinking with the ship. Their attitude is rather murine.

That increasing desperation inside the regime who justifiably fears for its privileges is sensed more and more. If the sentence on Lopez was a clear salvo, other words are equally telling.

For example the other day nobody less but Maduro's wife, Cilia Flores, said that all of the opposition was suspect of plotting against the regime. She did not nuance much, for her there is no one worth discussing on the other side of the isle. Certainly Cilia being one of the worst offenders as far as nepotism is concerned knows for sure that her shenanigans would not be funded anymore under a new management. This is not a matter of fear for her, she is way too amoral for having such feelings, but rather mere technical points to keep her extended brood on tenure. For people like Cilia, the others simply want her job to cash in.

Her husband Nicolas goes further. He is now seeing conspiracy when people discuss among themselves the Venezuelan economic disaster and speculate how big would a rescue package be. Since Maduro is too dumb to understand, and worse, too unwilling to learn how the real world functions, then these people discussing serious matters are mere conspirators. That is why Lorenzo Mendoza is under threat of jail for having a phone call to Ricardo Hausman tapped illegally. I am quite certain that Maduro knows the risks in jailing Mendoza but if this can stop the election he may well be willing to take that risk. Soon attending a mere campaign meeting will be an act of conspiracy.

Of course, there are the constant and multiple insults from the chavista riffraff but I will spare you that. It will be enough with these two examples coming from the very top of the state to figure out what goes on under.

What is more interesting here, when you read the variety and quality of insults, is that it seems that there is a deep divide inside chavismo as to the election. Granted, all agree on maximum abuse against the opposition making this campaign already the worst in chavista history, a campaign that should have already been condemned internationally as it is.

On one side you have people like Maduro who is on record, as president of the nation, saying that the regime has to win the election at any cost, and that if that did not happen well, let's go and hit the streets and refuse recognition. We even have cute and ridiculous scenes where the regime offers a document that all parts should sign to recognize the result when that document was not discussed by anyone. And then of course attack the opposition as warmongers for not signing it.

On the other side you have a relative silence from the army and from some of the regime operators who abound in attacks against the opposition but try not to go overboard with these. It is all a matter of degree in histrionics.

My interpretation is that there are people like Maduro and Flores who are ready to suspend elections that they cannot win. Period. Come what may. On the other side there are chavistas that think not holding elections could be worse than losing them. They certainly cannot be vocal about it inside a regime permeated with spies all around. I would dare to go as far as putting Diosdado Cabello in that group. Why are these people willing to contemplate a loss? The Sandinista experience is a good piece of data. When they left Violeta Chamorro win they burdened the opposition with the management of the crisis they had left behind, and later they helped create a major division inside the opposition that allowed for their return. And now a divided opposition and Chavez cash have consolidated Sandinismo tenure in ways guns could never manage. Note: Sandinistas always kept control of the army.

Also, for chavismo who lacks an Evita, a little bit of opposition epic like Peronism had in Argentina could be of great help long run.

I the end, besides the army, what will decide whether elections are held, how much fraud is applied, what result is accepted, will be the result of the inner battle within chavismo. The battle is between those that want to null elections and those that are willing to take a risk.  In the end, what is really at stake here is which group from chavismo will get its hands on the remaining riches, as those may be. The opposition is a mere distraction in that battle.


15 comments:

  1. IslandCanuck8:10 AM

    Daniel, as I have posted a number of times I truly believe that there will be no election.
    It's just too damaging to allow it.
    All the noise against Polar & Mendoza is just a prelude to what is coming in the next few weeks.
    Now they want to audit every cent Polar has received from the government as if this has not already been done many times over.
    You can't move at Polar without bumping into a government inspector.

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    Replies
    1. Indeed. I am in that line of business and I know that companies like Polar are CONSTANTLY under inspection, quite often over and over for the very same item.

      In one of our own inspections one of our managers managed to overhear a conversation between the inspector and the superior at the office. She was reprimanded for not having found fault with us after two days of inspection. They are so crooked, so full of shit that they actually cannot conceive that people can run a business in a normal and legal way.

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  2. Dr. Faustus12:03 PM

    Also, pay attention to what is taking place in Argentina. On November 22nd, two weeks before the Venezuelan elections, Cristina's Peronists may in fact lose the election. Bedlam all over the place. Chavista's staring south in disbelief, harbinger of things to come! Pay attention to what is going-on in Argentina!

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  3. Anonymous1:00 PM

    A wild thought....maybe important a consideration of what CUBA wants? In the past Cuba wanted to divert the profits from Venezuelan oil to prop up it's economy. It was ready to do anything to make that possible. If Cuba now perceives that the Venezuelan "grape has been squeezed dry", will it care as much? Comments?

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    1. The question should be "what does the Cuban dictatorship want?" That's an excellent question. Cuba the Castros, and Maduro, to retire to North Korea and run an Internet cafe.

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  4. How could the Chavistas get even 45%. Do they have that many supporters? I really don't understand it.

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  5. Count me in those who still doubt that there will be elections on December 6. I cannot see the regime going through elections unless it is certain that the opposition will not get more than 90 seats (about 55%)"

    Every comment here so far has underestimated the massive fraud potential of chavematics little Oilyvetti machines. Apparently, no one in Vzla understands why no one in Europe except the stupid Estonians want electronic elections, let alone Jorge Rodriguez's infamous, despicable, secret source-code, Antonio Mugica's lovely machines. People forget el foro de sau paolo, forget general Peñalosa's warnings, forget Alek Boyd's pertinent bullet proof investigations about focking smartmatic. Many of you might well be in for a shocking surprise, when 80% disapproval magically materializes into a 48-52% result, after the usual extra innings in Brazil or Cleptozuela, on December 7th.

    Then perhaps, some of the "expert" elections bloggers we have, Octavio, Daniel or Torito will pay further attention to what the entire European continent already knows.

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  6. The other huge mistake of this post is thinking that a 55% result is enough to cange anything in Kleptozuela. CapoCabello will probably, and happily step down, but with their PDVSA trillions don't you know that 80% of MUDcrap "diputados" have a very cheap price tag?

    Nothing will change in the "Parliament". Whatever the Fraudulent elections results are. 45/55% either way. It's still gonna be a dictatorship, run by Cabello and the Military top crooks, with Masburro as tonto inutil until 2019. You just buy a few more Nieves' here and there next year.

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  7. Then again, we can all trust Ramos Allup, plus Copey or Causa R, and their Derwick bolichicos in charge to save the day, and purge the entire TS de Injusticia very quickly in December, freeing Leopoldo and all.

    True separation of powers and full-force Capitalism, free enterprise will be in full effect next year, after a laughable 56% "MUD Victory". Y las vacas vuelan en aviones Smartmatic.

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  8. Seems odd that Maduro wants the document recognizing the election and all the Chavistas media claims Chavistas are now leading in the polls. All smells to me like a faked result same as any dictator country holds. Why not nobody in Venezuela or the world will do anything about it. Will be some protests that the military will squash and the beaten people will go back to waiting for someone else to solve their problems

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    1. Anonymous2:15 PM

      Yep. Even Brazil pulled out as observers. As a close ally of the regime, their conditions must have been minimal but they pulled out so I think they know the fix is in and don't want to be associated with it.

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  9. The problem for Maduro is that he was handed the Presidency of Venezuela. He has never done anything special that would ordinarily qualify him to be President. He was essentially appointed to the office by Hugo Chavez. I think canceling elections is what some are telling him he should do. But this takes courage as there is no telling what will happen in that case. Canceling elections would tell all Venezuelans and the world that the Venezuela government has become a dictatorship.

    A strong dictator might be able to hold on for some time - and then when he steps down, he might even avoid being killed and may remain wealthy. But weak dictators almost always end up dead. Maduro has never done anything to prepare him to be a strong dictator. Therefore, the outcome of becoming a dictatorship would eventually be that Maduro becomes a puppet for others that will be eventually discarded and killed. Even though Maduro is a fool, I think he should be able to sense that fate.

    On the other hand, even if the Chavistas lose badly the elections, he may believe that all is not lost. They might think they can recover or that they can intimidate enough people and continue to hold most of the power.

    Therefore, I think Maduro should opt to have the elections. I could be wrong.





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    1. Joe I for 1 as many believe that Chavez never picked Maduro, Castro did as Maduro is just a puppet, whereas Cabello would have been hard to control. There really is no proof he picked Maduro. Supposedly Castro, Chavez and Maduro had a meeting grands right before Chavez death that this decision was made. Yet everyone knows Chavez was already dead by this so called meeting date. Maduro is simply a puppet and will do what Castro tells him to do. The world already sees him as a dictator and his faked win will be no different thenote the last election where he cheated a win. He will then go on with his media machine claiming it is the people's will and how dare the USA or anyone else stand against the Democratic govt. If the people in mass of Venezuela are not willing to stand in the face of death against him then he will rule on and to this date there is no sign that the people have the fight or courage left to in them.

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    2. Why do people always talk about el burro? And only Maduro? He does not make most of the important decisions. The Military, Cabello, the TSJ crooks, Luisa ortega, the PDVSA top Thieves, Raul Castro's son in law, the Derwick Bolichicos, ask them about anything.

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  10. Chavismo knows that MUD will need 65% to get 52% of Deputies. Not a worry...

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