Tuesday, December 22, 2015

The now you see, now you don't see the constitutional coup {UPDATED URGENT}

Guys, this is it, the real thing. The regime cannot accept the electoral result of December 6 and has started this week to pull real moves to make sure that it keeps firmly in control of the country, or at least the essential, namely that its leadership does not go to jail (not even keep looting, there is not much left to loot...).

In short the regime is holding a coup d’état except that instead of having tanks rolling down the avenues it is packing the courts and removing representatives recently elected through that packed court. Il suffisait d'y penser (1)


The regime had been remiss in packing the high court, TSJ, a chance it would have got a couple of months ago even though it was illegal as it was at the cost of forced early retirement for the judges whose term ended soon and would be replaced by the new assembly where the regime was sure it would not get the 2/3 and not even the 3/5. For reasons that we do not know the regime did not proceed and now that it lost the election it is going full speed at it even though it is breaking all of the legal parameters that the regime set itself. Now conveniently the TSJ just issued a ruling saying that Diosdado Cabello, the outgoing Assembly chair, can do all the legal violations he is doing.

Yet there is a problem with that attempt at securing for half a decade a unanimous support for the regime at the TSJ: it is so blatantly illegal that the new assembly after some struggle could manage to revoke the new judges. It still would not be able to get a political majority in the TSJ but the mere thought of a dissident opinion is enough to send shivers through the regime spine. Remember: nobody in Venezuela recalls the last time the regime lost a case in court, and nobody has a notion that there could just be such a thing as dissenting court opinion.

Add to this that the recent arrests in Houston and Miami are promising yet more corruption revelations of such a magnitude that, well, time si running short for those who allowed it to happen here. And we can also add that the negotiations between Cuba and the US are at a standstill due to the complex electoral system of the US that makes the year before a presidential year a lost one where no controversial measures can be taken. It is likely that Raul has decided that power has to be retained at all cost so that he keeps getting his monthly allowance (2).

So the regime has decided to go in full coup mode. Today, even though the TSJ is on legal and formal holiday vacation, it reopened for a few minutes to allow the regime to send a writ to suspend at least 22 of the representatives of the opposition elected on December 6.

This is totally illegal for so many reasons...  To begin with, the recourse must be set first with the CNE, electoral board, who has to judge on the merits before it goes to the TSJ. The regime is claiming nakedly electoral fraud even though its control over the electoral system is total and the elections unfair conditions toward the opposition have been widely discussed overseas. What the regime is doing is accusing the opposition of a electoral fraud that it simply has no means to do, even if it wanted to do so; and thus the regime gets a sentence in its favor before the parties get their day in court. Etc., etc...

What the regime wants immediately? If the new assembly finally gathers on January 5 (which is yet to be seen as the Parliament seat is actually occupied by an assembly of the appointed "poder comunal" which the regime is toying with the idea of it replacing the elected assembly) it would be incomplete. Having less than a 2/3 majority the regime could even block its working by walking out and forfeiting the minimum attendance required to vote laws. Also, the opposition worried on regaining its 22 seats will not have time to investigate the Cabellos and Rincon and Ramirez of the regime. And while all of this takes place the regime can come up with more provocations making reactions to such acts an excuse to disband outright the elected assembly.

And more, but this is long enough as it is.

I think that at this point the opposition should come out explicitly announcing that it will go to the OAS and Mercosur to denounce a constitutional violation and annulment of a legitimate power, duly elected though supervision of the enemy.

This is a coup, we must call it so, in the hope (vain?) that the regime will back down from a provocation that will descend the country into chaos and will speed up the bitter end of those who seek protection though that coup. Indictments are coming in the US (and elsewhere), so the best that Cabello and his corrupt narco cohorts can hope for is to transform Venezuela into a jail from which they cannot go out. Then again they are pranes so they may be OK with it. (3)

UPDATE

We just learned that the TSJ said it has not received any writ for cancelling the election of the 22 opposition representatives?  What the f....?

Now, the curious thing is that this late the TSJ decided to reply, to say no, and to accuse the 2.0 of creating destabilizing rumors. That is, if there is no writ the TSJ could have well waited tomorrow morning, or not replied at all, or elliptically state that they were close for business until January 11 so they could not possibly have any answer. But no, they replied and took the opportunity to lance barbs at the opposition.

What happened?
The reaction may have been fast enough to the point that a few phone calls made through at Maduro's office and the order was stopped (for the time being?).
Or it is a reflection of the internecine warfare of chavismo as such a measure is bound to affect one side more than the other. The side not controlling that event put a stop to it.
Or it could be the military repeating that there is nothing to be done until January 5, that the regime needs to wait for a offense from the opposition before retaliating,  and no offense can be done until January 5).
Heck, it could even be someone at the CNE with half a brain that told them that they should let the CNE rule on that first, that they will oblige gladly but that they should have the first go to make the thing look like a valid judicial trap.
Or simply it was a mere trial to test the opposition readiness for bigger things planned.
Or a distracting tactic so people talk about that instead fo the 12 justices that will be illegally replaced.
Or a combination, or something else totally.

The only thing that is certain is that the regime is looking for ways, and looking, and looking et qui cherche trouve. (4)

Note: I had to change the title of the blog entry. The first time ever!

---------------------------------

1) One just had to think of it

2) Credit to Rafael Poleo of Zeta. Then again for me the case is that these people are probably not even thinking of Cuba now, just thinking as to how to save their butt. So the fortunes of Raul and Fidel are not that pressing for me right now.

3) Pran is a leader in the Venezuelan jail system. That is, a thug/mafiosi/gangster/whatever that directs his gang from inside the jail where he actually gets more protection than if he were outside the jail. Jails in Venezuela even have discos and swimming pool. You may not be able to go out (some do) but life inside is OK and through cel phones you can keep operating your racket.

4) Who seeks shall find

17 comments:

  1. Anonymous9:17 PM

    This would be a good reason for 25k angry people to show up demanding to be given what they voted for. Funny how Maduro can annul an election but the same couldn't be done for him.

    Not sure if OAS or Mercosur can do anything. These organizations are useless.

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  2. It all comes down to whether the military cut a deal or not as to who they will support as they have to know that this will become a bloodbath and that they will have to kill their own relatives sooner or later.

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    1. Anonymous12:27 PM

      Ash, too early for that. FANB is split with GNB trying to take control but the Reverol indictment hurt. More GNB Generals will be indicted and that should weaken GNB and strengthen Army. Navy backs GNB and their contribution is Marines (Infanteria de Armada). Air Force on the fence, they just care about their toys and understand the money is gone. Basically it's the dope runners in the military vs. the rest. The dope runners have a tough fight ahead and will have to always be watching their backs. The U.S. can place bounties on their heads.

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  3. The regime did an about face on the 22 deputies. The TSJ is now on record saying that it is close and it never happened. mere speculation. I guess the reaction to it was louder than what they had hoped.
    http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2015/12/22/sala-electoral-no-ha-recibido-ninguna-impugnacion-sobre-elecciones-parlamentarias-del-6d/

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  4. Anonymous, the OAS and other organizations will weigh but they don't have militaries to invade Venezuela. I'm not sure what you are expecting. Maduro et al would love a confrontation with the U.S. at the moment, so they could claim they are defending South America against the Big Bad US boogeyman.

    In the end the people are going to have to take the to the streets and dare Maduro to order the military to fire on them. I'm not sure enlisted soldiers are going to be willing to kill their fellow citizens to protect the likes of Maduro and Cabello.

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    Replies
    1. Anonymous12:36 PM

      ConsDemo, the U.S. is now openly going after them and what do they do? Nothing. Silence. FEAR. The days of confrontation with the U.S. died with HCh. Oil and Cuba also changed that. Regarding a military invasion, all roads lead to military action. Military action is not invasion. This is a civil-miltiary narco-state that is highly armed and equipped and that is not lost on the other militaries in the region. The fact is Venezuela is surrounded by powerful and capable militaries from other nations. I would think everyone knows better than to try to pick a fight with a foreign adversary and yes, there are things they can do to bring the fight on. Look at history.

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  5. Apologies.
    The entry was written so fast that when I went to Update it I reread it and was obliged to make quite a few corrections.

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  6. Interesting how the whole world had quickly reported the act but have not made mention yet of the TSJ response. I wouldn't doubt that the military didn't stop this action too saying it will not support it forcing the regime to backtrack quickly. There seems to be big problems in the regime as they seem to have lost control of the CNE and quite possibly, looking at election night, the military.

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  7. Charly1:30 AM

    My dear friends, please forget about a military intervention tonight, they are sipping Buchanan 12 year old with us on these holy week, so if there is a coup it will have to wait a few days more. Merry Christmas to all.

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  8. I would also worry about losing three National. Assembly Members on the way to the first vote needing 2/3. I bet the regimen is working on three to turn sides.

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  9. Excellent analysis, totally agree with every paragraph (rare occurrence on any blog). Especially the last part. Who knows what the desperate regime is toying with, planning or experimenting with. It's probably a mixture of incompetence, negligence and/or ignorance of the Law and the Constitution, political flares to divert public attention, or simply "un tiro al aire pa' ver lo que cae".

    I also agree that CapoCabello, the Military crooks, the PDVSA and Corpoelec mega-thieves, the putrid TSJ, they must all be shitting in their pants right now. They risk extensive Jail time and/or losing all the millions they stole. Andorra, the narco-sobrinos, Rincon, even Noriega must be in their sweet dreams. To erradicate all those criminal thugs from power will be "mas dificil que matar a un burro a pellizcos". Y el pataleo acaba de empezar. For starters, I expect physical brawls - a coñazo limpio" in the AN next year. It's gonna get real ugly.

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  10. Boludo Tejano1:47 PM

    What happened?

    As is said in Guatemala, saber....

    Following is one explanation- or speculation? - from commenter Bill Bass.

    The TSJ sentence was already prepared and ready for signature , at the last moment one key magistrate refused to sign and now the TSJ has issued a message that implies such decision was never requested and was never on the works. As a matter of fact the filing of the submission was indeed made, given a docket number which now appears to have never existed . One magistrates signature was all that stood between this coup being implemented or abandoned .

    Maybe the position taken by some military had something to do with it , maybe the warning from some foreign former presidents , maybe the MUD´S very straightforward stance ……..the thing is that its apparently been called off. No doubt new attempts will be made to sabotage the oppos electoral victory , but for the time beings it appears as a stand off….


    What will be Chavismo's next attempt to annul the 112 seat victory? This attempt was not the first nor will it be the last. One apparent lesson from this latest attempt is that Chavismo is not immune to protests from outside the circle.


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  11. i stated on 6 D within an hour after the election results. "PSUV's first order of business is going to nullify as many diputados it takes to cause the MUD to lose the Super Majority. That is so important to them.

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  12. i stated on 6 D within an hour after the election results. "PSUV's first order of business is going to nullify as many diputados it takes to cause the MUD to lose the Super Majority. That is so important to them.

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  13. Perhaps, the factions of the regime cannot agree on an excuse to nullify the majority status of the MUD. It's an ominous act of corruption to undermine the will of the majority. It takes a lot courage to subvert the will of so many to protect a few crooks!

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  14. Anonymous8:29 AM

    The first order of business should be freeing Leopoldo Lopez and all political prisoners. Or should be. These people are being tortured, for so long.. The MUD should look in the mirror, do a little soul-searching and make it their top priority. After that free Ledezma, Ceballos and all from house arrest. And rehabilitate Maria Corina Machado.

    This, besides being a most important humanitarian concern, would give the opposition much more force. Leopoldo Lopez is no wimp. Has more testicles than Capriles and all. He would get to work immediately against the dictatorial regime, and gather even more supporters. Even Macri knows that. And that's why Cabello and his 40 Ladrones are scared to death at the prospect of a free Leopoldo Lopez.

    Lee Kuan Yew.

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