Thursday, January 07, 2016

La fuite en avant or is it La politique du pire ?

French political language is rich and dates from the French Revolution where between 1789 and 1815, depending on how you count, up to 12 government systems could be identified. There are two sentences that need to be used for this entry. La fuite en avant refers as when you have no option but just make a run for it straight ahead and hope for the best (escaping straight ahead). La politique du pire refers to make the situation worse in the hope that people will want to go back to a past situation because it was less worse, grammatical mistake on purpose. Or to destroy everything so no one can do anything against you.

Today we can use BOTH expressions.


But before I keep going on you need to understand that the regime is acting as it does because its top leaders know full well that if a semi functional Assembly manages to get hold too many of them will end in jail. If you do not understand that then maybe what comes next will make little sense to you.

The mechanic of Wednesday events started with a series of videos summarized in a Tal Cual entry. These videos explicitly show how all the Chavez propaganda at the National Assembly was taken down Tuesday evening. But that is not the real story. These videos which pretend to be amateur are, I am sure of it, a carefully thought provocation by the new chair of the Assembly, Ramos Allup. Among other things he says that the only pictographie allowed in the Assembly are the official classic portraits of Simon Bolivar, that the necrophiliac reconstruction of Bolivar by Chavez was something crazy and that it should be taken with all the rest to Sabaneta (Chavez birth place) or Miraflores Palace or the trash, that he could not care less but all had to go.

Sure enough the assembly was under siege by chavista supporters Wednesday night...

So why did Ramos Allup took such a chance? Because he knows that a confrontation with the regime is unavoidable. It is going to happen, it is just a calendar question and Ramos Allup has decided that he will hold the calendar of the confrontation. So far at least today he is proven right: chavismo at Wednesday's session was out of itself to the point of hearing stupid things like a decomposed Cabello saying that there will be no money for the Assembly. I suppose that he thinks that international lenders will come and approve loans to Venezuela that are not signed by its National Assembly.....

Ramos Allup also proceeded into the swearing in of the dismissed representatives of Amazonas (though apparently they are refraining from voting). This is the other side of the coin. It may look as a provocation but as long as these never vote the decisions of the assembly cannot be judged illegal. On the other hand the blood thirsty radical wing of the opposition will get a bone to chew on while Ramos Allup woks on the really pressing matters.

In short, Ramos Allup got today the hysteria of the regime in full display showing them saying anything, preparing any thing to stop (or escape from?) the Assembly, la fuite en avant.

That night we got further regime reaction with the naming of the new Maduro government. I have not much to say on that except for a few points that are telling enough.

First, the regime has decided to cave in its radical left. Luis Salas is the new coordinator of the economy. He is a "professor" at the bolivarian university founded by Chavez to "form" all the public administration he needs. Objectivity has never been a value taught at the UBV. He has worked with PODEMOS in Spain. And if that is enough to scare you to death, you just need to read the titles of his opus at Aporrea where you can find gems like "The price of gas as a fetish" or "Economic war and social war. The mafiosi and paramilitary code behind the fascist violence". Yes, an "economic professor" penned title that a serious blogger would never dare to pen.

In his team we have a Caracas PSUV candidate defeated and now available to occupy a seat in an administration in search of its Kerensky. For commerce Maduro named Jesus Farias, a guy holding a positon in the Communist Party until 2007. As if a commie had any idea about what "Exterior Commerce and Foreign Investment" was all about.

At least for some levity Maduro also appointed someone for the banking system that has an idea of what is to be done. He also named for Vice President the governor of Anzoategui, Aristobulo Isturiz, a survivor of pre Chavez years, just like Ramos Allup.

What can we conclude from that? The regime is unable to change its economical system. It simply cannot. So Maduro names the most radical wing to the economy position, to increase further controls as if it were possible. La politique du pire, burnt earth... And the creation of a ministry of "Urban Agriculture" is not going to make us avoid starvation.

But on the other hand the regime has not solved its internal contradictions and the side aware that things have changed has managed to put someone to try not to see the banks fold, and perhaps the only person in the regime that can negotiate a settlement with Ramos Allup: Isturiz. (1)

The only problem here is that I wonder if Maduro has the luxury of time anymore. If he persists in listening to people like Salas that are convinced that the country can produce enough just if capitalism is flushed out then he may be in for a rude awakening. He lost on 6D in 23 de Enero and they are just across the street from Miraflores.

I cannot believe that our hopes are now solely on Isturiz shoulders!

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1) Besides the impression that reaching to lunatics like Salas show that Maduro is short on people willing to work with him, we should note that Venezuela has a 1.500 million dollar bond issue coming to term. Can anyone imagine Salas negotiating an extension? Is default a near certainty? Is this why Medina went banking control, to prepare for default?

10 comments:

  1. Anonymous2:38 AM

    I think this is why they chose Ramos Allup. He represents the old guard, yes. But he's also a political animal who knows how to play the political games and to keep the regime on the wrong foot.

    If Venezuela is to be saved from Chavizmo, people like him are needed, unfortunately.

    ReplyDelete
  2. So it looks like Spanish communists from Valencia's CEPS, the Podemos School of Economic MisGovernance, are going to be writing the grand finale.

    Based on my experience in Cuba, Venezuelans will soon be eating cats, dogs, pigeons, rats. I have to confess I ate cat willingly. And vulture, but I didn't know what it was.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous5:49 AM

      And force the closure of Chinese restaurants? Surely not! There will be a ministry of urban consumable animal production.

      Delete
  3. Things have to get worse before they can get better? Seems like Chavismo needs to burn Rome!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are relentless. They won't stop at anything. They MAY be contained after they've caused enough damage. This is why I think getting General Baduel out of jail is going to help. He realizes the whole mess is a Cuban invasion.

      Delete
  4. IslandCanuck7:12 AM

    Could someone explain to me why the AN is only going to meet 2 times a week - Tuesdays & Thursdays??

    They've had 1 month to prepare. Shouldn't they be in permanent session for at least the first couple of months?

    It's like they're not seeing the real picture here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous7:49 PM

      They meet twice a week in chambers, Tuesday and Thursdays. Wednesdays are for working in committees, which not necessarily takes place n the chambers per se.

      Perhaps in the beginning they will session in chambers more.

      Roberto N

      Delete
  5. What a confused situation. Is there any coordination between Maduro and Cabello towards destruction? Also, the situation is so ironic. If His Nibs happens to run under a bus tomorrow then we have two dinosaurs from the fourth on each side of the divide. Better than the yerno though, Aristobulo has proven he can jump around.

    Very good post Daniel. What I retain mainly and I had thought about that over the last few days is: "...international lenders will come and approve loans to Venezuela that are not signed by its National Assembly.....". This is kryptonite in the hands of Ramos.

    ReplyDelete
  6. So the high-school drop-out, accomplished bus driver from Colombia, created 3 more Ministerios? We already possessed the undisputed World Record, with 32 useless ministries, add 3 more just to ensure the infamous crown? Or perhaps to hook-up (Enchufar) 100,000 more government Leeches? (Exceeding 4 million to this day).

    That's how it's done in Cuba: you force people to be poor, keep them poor, make stay at their ranchitos with chickens, matica e' mango, and brain-wash them with bad-or-no education. Keep them on their peñeros all day fighting for daily survival, feed them TV cadenas at night, and cheap rum to get drunk before bed. Let'em get old, and stupid. Cuban Style.

    Beyond Pathetic:

    http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/306947/maduro-designo-ministros-para-produccion-agricola-y-tierras-pesca-y-acuicultura-agricultura-urbana/

    ReplyDelete
  7. Main reasons they expand even more the countless tentacles of their putrid Desgobierno:

    - To bribe, enlist and brain-wash even more amoral "pueblo"people: The more "Ministries", the more bureaucracy, the more public employees, the more millions of people the corrupt regime can grab by the testicles. Not only they depend on their inflated salaries, special favors, palancas, segundas, tigritos, guisos and enchiladas, but they also become Complicit, liable for breaking the Law, for stealing. So they instill Fear, threats, and dependency on the brutal regime. You can't blow the whistle, it would be like pissing against the wind.

    - You have more eyes&ears at every barrio, every caserio in the entire country. You employ thousands of poor, ignorant,uneducated "pueblo" people, bribe them, juice-them up a bit. Give'em a refrigerator, a horse or a moto, or something. They will be eternally grateful.. You keep brain washing them, and their children, busy bachaqueando or growing potatoes, instead of studying.

    - You make alliances and create divisions. "Either you're with the rebolusion bananera, or you're against Chavez and Bolivar and la Patria."
    Thus, you destroy honest, private enterprise, and only regime-related, corrupt guisos can survive. The best, educated, professional people then either leave the country, as soon as they can, or do something else. Probably Enchufarse too, somehow.

    The 1.5 Million people and who got the hell out of Vzla lately know this.
    But "el pueblo", (always deemed to be honest, hard-working, loyal, with high moral values, perfect..) has no clue.

    ReplyDelete

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