Thursday, February 23, 2017

In praise of the two MUD solution: 1- a new realitity

Let's be frank about it: when Obama and the Pope imposed a dialogue on the Venezuelan opposition MUD alliance they screwed us bad. But at least there is a tiny silver lining: the contradictions inside the MUD are now apparent and must be dealt with.

The recap is simple and at this point in this blog seems redundant. Obama did not want any trouble in the Caribbean while he was trying to bring out of the cold the Cuban dictatorship. In the failed hope that it would favor Hillary electoral prospects when the political situation in Venezuela became tense last summer State sent Thomas Shannon several times to Venezuela to promote a "dialogue". To add weight to the pressure the Vatican was recklessly brought in; a Vatican, need I say, led by a Pope with what we could call more socially liberal ideas, rarely adapted to real politic when you deal with dictatorships.


The rest is history. The Venezuelan regime surfed comfortably over the dialogue wrecking it as wanted, while claiming that they wanted dialogue and more dialogue. The MUD unraveled, the streets got cold and the regime got a very significant extension on its life. Probably until 2019 at the very least. In what shape will the country be in 2019 is not difficult to predict and by then probably no one but narco-chavismo will want it.

But the political scenario emerging this year is not what everyone expected. See, history has a way not to repeat itself. Obama lost its gambit, Cuba is more repressive and so his Venezuela. When the question "who lost Venezuela/Cuba?" will be asked the guilty will not be Bush or Clinton but Obama. Never mind that his indecisiveness masked as grace by his late supporters have probably done a lot to bring forth the "need" for a strong man among enough US voters. Thus the uncomfortable truth that Obama helped a lot to bring the promising disaster of Trump. I have the feeling that in the end Obama will be ranked poorly as a president, when all have a chance to examine how all of his unfinished and untied schemes unravel. Having a scandal free White House simply is not enough to make a Rushmore like president.

So there is Trump and he owes nothing to the Pope. He actually does not give a shit about the Pope. And so far, amazingly, the only aspect in which he has been coherent is toward his non Mexican Latin America policy. If the approach to Mexico is a reckless disaster that has not been the case with the rest. President by president have received a friendly phone call, considerate, business like and often including a conversation about Venezuelan prospects. At least thus it comes from Panama, Peru and Argentina. The now famous "best tweet" of Trump receiving most known political prisoner wife Lilian Tintori at the White House has not been a shot in the dark.

To this you certainly must add that the Vice President of Venezuela has been put on the Treasury Department black list. For drug trafficking. For fake passports. For corruption. For whatever. Us here in Venezuela know very well that Tareck El Aissami fate is to rot in hell, preferably after a few years in some earthly slammer. The problem for the Venezuelan regime is not that Tareck has been penciled in that list. The problem is that he was not the first one and apparently he will not be the last one.

Thus the happy regime that made it to January 10, without a single sanction for violating the Constitution in blocking the recall election is again on the defense. The lull will have lasted barely a month.

Right now the regime is circling its wagons. All rally around Tareck not for love but for survival. I can assure you that if there was a way to send Tareck to the US without internal consequences, he would already be in lots of trouble at home.

If you are not in agreement that the support for Tareck is not out of good will and sincere love, look at what the regime is doing to Venezuela. There is hunger and disease all around and yet, money keeps flowing to Cuba, interests on debt are payed and corruption rakes whatever is left. The heartless nature of the regime, or rather its total lack of humanity is easy to understand: their fate is sealed if they lose power, even if they lose any small parcel of power. None of them, be it Tareck, be it Maduro himself can be thrown away because it would be the time when the regime unravels.

So what else is left for the regime? To begin with, alongside increased repression and constitutional violations, besides trying to bring back desperately the dialogue to clean up its image facing Trump, it decided to make elections impossible this year by demanding a new registration of all political parties. No need to go into the details of the measures taken, suffice to say that the timetables stated are difficult to meet, that the process will drag long enough to kill any election in 2017 and that to boot there is a way to include chavista folks signing down for opposition parties and then suing for fraud because "they have been tricked into". We have seen that movie, we are expecting the remakes. Then the courts can adjourn the registration renewal of any dangerous political parties and hold elections with only the regime party PSUV and a few non dangerous unpopular token ones. Brilliant!

So, what will the opposition do?
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Written listening to Haydn London symphonies, always good to clarify one's mind.


26 comments:

  1. Barack Obama was a terrible president and history will show that.

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    1. Anonymous9:19 AM

      Hi Greg,

      This is a Blog about Venezuela (and at a stretch Latin America).

      If, according to you, Obama was a terrible President, which of these Presidents would you consider better for Venezuela and/or Latin America?

      Reagan
      Bush 1
      Clinton
      Bush 2


      Limey

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    2. Greg is as smart as the el pebli who worshipped Chavez as the savior of the poor.
      Daniel you miss the fact when you talk about Obama and Trump etc that the president of the USA is merely a figurehead for the rich. Rich Americans, mostly through funds own most of those bonds. By having Venezuela near bankruptcy they get 20 to 30 percent returns at a time when no one can get a decent return on investment. They are legally making billions of dollars. They dont give a rats ass about Venezuelans or anyone else in the world. If riots lead to regime change without a negotiated insurance that tye bonds would be looked after then these rich lose billions they made. Trump when elected only served his mighty pocket book and cared about no one else. Hence was not backed by anyone. Since then the Kock brothers and that association of the rich they belong to have secured all the lobby spots within Trumps regime. Is all politics, the rich run the world generally through associations funded by the people that the people believe work for them.

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    3. Reagan, Bush 1 and Clinton would have done better than Obama handling Chavez and Maduro. Bush 2 was lousy, and didn't do much during his tenure about Cubazuela

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    4. Your so not in touch with the ways of the world Fernando. They all would have carried out the wishes of the rich who look after them well during and after their tenure. Any of the ones you mentioned would have looked after the wishes of the billions being made by the USA funds. Is the way of the world. At some point you will realize how the world works.

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    5. Anonymous1:30 AM

      Limey, to answer your question, Bush 1. 41 was best for Latam because of Operation Just Cause. 41 was best for Venezuela because he visited.

      Reagan did more in Latam cleaning the region from Cuban trash but created a mess in Central America.

      Clinton is third with Plan Colombia but blew it with Brothers To The Rescue shootdown.

      Obama was not as strong of a leader. His dealing with Iran and Cuba bought Chavistas time.

      But it was under Obama that we would see the ultimate travesty in the way Josh Holt's abduction has been handled.

      The State Dept knew Americans where at higher risk stemming from narconephews yet nothing was done. No travel advisory warning update.

      When Josh Was abducted on 30 June, it came as no surprise.

      Josh was abducted on orders of Cilia. I cannot emphasize enough what this means.

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    6. Anonymous what are you basis some of what you are saying on. USA as well as Canada have had travel advisories or warnings if you prefer for many years prior to the Holt instance. My wife and I noted them when we travelled there 5 years ago. As for countries handling issues like thus it is all lip service. Cannot forget the USA rich citizens are making billions of bond interest. These are the only people who really matter to politicians. Hence Obama was not going to do anything too radical as to upset this apple cart. Trump won't either.

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  2. "But at least there is a tiny silver lining: the contradictions inside the MUD are now apparent and must be dealt with."

    As everywhere in Vzla, I supect 3 main culprits for the Muddy Mud's failures and divisions: Corruption, Ineptitude and lack of real education.

    Don't surprised in many in the MUD have been bribed in some way. In the AN, and elsewhere. Remember these are Venezuelan Politicians, after all. Remember Vzla has been highly corrupt forever, and was corrupt way before Chavismo, with AD/Copey, etc. Favors, cafecitos, wiskicitos, promesas, alianzas, Chavistas must have bribed, enticed, coerced, los of MUD people. Divide and conquer.. "Una casita por aqui, transferencia por alla, y haces esto o aquello, dices esto, y te peleas con aquel.."

    Ineptitude: because many of these MUD people hardly understand how politics work, what a Republic, the perils of Populism, etc. They want a piece of the pie after Chavismo finally falls, so there is conflict, jalousies, lack of unity and a clear plan of action.

    Lack of education: have you heard some of these MUD people speak? Besides a few like Ramos Allup, may are under-educated pueblo people, few even speak English, or know much about world history, geography or social events. Many have never visited College, with few exception as Leopoldo.

    Thus the MUD is a mess, divided, without a plan or direction. They are waiting que caiga un manguito por ahi.. Una posicion con poder y dinero en el "Gobielno". Y eso sera despues que la gente, o paises extranjeras salen al Chavismo a patadas.

    Y despues, cuando la MUD este gobernando, seguira la corrupcion, chanchullos, divisiones, desorden, crisis por decadas. Habra militares corruptos, jueces corruptus, gobernadores y alcaldes corruptos, ineptos y poco educados.

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    1. Anonymous1:34 AM

      Many in the MUD had their price met. For example, there's the career politician with 4 kids to raise. He wants his kids to recieve US college education. He knows the thugs are not leaving without a fight and believes U.S. and allies will never bring pressure to bear. This is a hypothetical example

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  3. The US has as much to do with the liberation of VZ as it did with the Arab spring or the fall of the Berlin Wall.

    Admit it. Venezuela is filled with cowards who prefer to run away to Doral or do nothing.

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    1. Look at the freaking Yank from his righteous perch. When the students rioted in February 2014, they were mercilessness slaughtered or jailed under inhumane conditions. Where were you you then? Piss off.

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    2. Anonymous1:42 AM

      Gringo, you mean the US today under Trump? You already know this? You friends with Bannon and Gorka? You are aware of our postwar history in Europe and Berlin? I dont expect civilians to take arms against this regime. I cant even begin to fathom this. You sound tough but tough talk wont get you far in Venezuela.

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  4. Charly it is easy for those of us on the outside to judge cowardliness. Not because we dont have to march down a gun barrel but because we know if our families were dieing from endless crime, starvation and lack of medicine as well as their future flushed down the toilet to live a terrible life that we would stand up to it. How can grown men watch these things happen to their loved ones and do nothing? I am not saying it would be easy but I for one would give my life for my family.

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  5. Charly it is easy for those of us on the outside to judge cowardliness.

    I agree 100%. Revolutions in today's world are getting harder. Fewer places to hide. More spying technology. Fewer morally/financially uncompromised people that can take on leadership. Fewer people that were loved by their families and are able to truly love others...

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  6. Fewer people that were loved by their families ... c.f. "Y salimos a matar gente"

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  7. Anon Gringo's comment hit a raw nerve. I personally threw the towel less than 2 weeks ago and we are now 20km away from Doral on our way to the Great White North. My wife was robbed at gun point in 2006, 2011 and two weeks ago in a clinic would you believe? She was stuck in a shootout between a cop and some ruffians last June and the car picked up two bullets. The cherry on the sunday was a desperate article from Daniel on our last day in Venezuela confirming how lucky we were to get out alive of this shithole. Believe me, we would love to kill every Chavista in sight but unfortunately, they have all the weapons and most of the official oppo in their pocket not to mention freaking comrade Francis. What is left? Homemade bombs. They are very effective but rather indiscriminate, so not a viable solution either. So the solution is to either stick your head in the sand or hit Doral.

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    1. If my readers leave me alone here, what I am to do?

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    2. Since yours is about the best blogs on analysis for the Venezuelan situation, (the other one being Naky's for day to day information), I shall remain a faithful reader even if I do not feel anymore entitled to comment emphatically as before. Thanks Daniel.

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    3. Trump at this point in his presidency has the lowest rating in history based on media coverage. But what has he actually accomplished compared to what other presidents accomplished by this point in time?

      Trump is actually doing a great job based on progress on his campaign promises. He has already moved fast to hire more immigration officials, increase the number of courts to handle immigration cases, and has already started the process of getting bids and concept designs to build the US Southern "wall". He has already prevented thousands of jobs from being lost either from being moved to Mexico or China. He has put in place the most conservative cabinet in modern US history and also the most accomplished cabinet perhaps in US history. His proposal for fixing the health care system should come out in the next week or so and the tax reform bill should come out in the next couple weeks. Basically, Trump is moving rapidly and effectively to do exactly what he said he would do if elected. Most politicians in the US promise the moon and deliver instead maybe a cow patty or two.

      As to latin America - Trump is the president that many wanted for decades. He is a president that will promote democracy, the rule of law and etc., etc., but won't use gunboat diplomacy. He is willing to stand with the under dog and promote the oppressed diplomatically speaking without using overt military or overt clandestine forces.





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    4. Dear Joe 999999999

      This pandering to FOX might have been of interest if the items presented were actually supported by a minimum of consensus. But they are not. For example I am quite certain that were the people to chose between immigration officers and more regular cops, they would decant for the later.

      Remember: this blog discusses US politics when there is a rather direct effect on Venezuela.

      Delete
    5. Charly

      Thanks.

      You can always comment bluntly. This has been no obstacle for people that have never set foot in Venezuela. You, at least, escaped.

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    6. What are you smoking Joe? Other then Trump saying he has done so much what has he done?

      Delete
    7. Anonymous1:53 AM

      Charly, all the best in Canada. You stayed too long!

      You speak the truth. It's not over yet but it's going to take awhile if ever. I remain hopeful these thugs will be intervened by neighbors

      Delete
    8. Anonymous2:00 AM

      Joe has to be Russian. No American bothers to come here spewing that shit. It's a bit creepy and eerie.

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    9. Anonymous2:07 AM

      Days into his presidency, POTUS does ground op in Yemen. That was not a success by the standards of the elite commandos who participated. Joe, you are clueless as to the use and application of military force in Latin America, past, present and future

      Delete
  8. cowardly?...Naw....you just need to read up on the seven deadly sins to understand Venezuelans..they break all of them...lol

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