Monday, July 17, 2017

La hora cero: measuring Sunday 16 vote

A little while ago the president of the National Assembly announced the Zero Hour. That means, the hour at which the opposition will start its march for the final overthrow of the regime.

The opposition really has no choice but to confront once and for all the regime.

The denial of chavismo today is spectacular. Then again what else could you expect from people that face jail terms any time soon, people that have stolen much, much more than Lula or Humala who are now ex presidents getting acquainted with jail cells even though they have stolen a fraction of what any asshole minister under chavismo has stolen.  The latest example, last week, is the Swiss tax folks blocking 42 million dollars from the account of Haiman El Troudi mother in law.  Apparently the wife accounts may be next.

Then again you must understand that yesterday event was no mere peanuts. It was, arguably, one of the biggest acts of civil disobedience in history. To find bigger you need to look at Gandhi in India, for example. In the Americas it is possible that the 7 million votes of yesterday are the biggest civilian act ever. The magnitude of the result, the visual images of huge lines in Barcelona, Madrid, Miami, Bogota etc have convinced the world that yesterday was indeed A VOTE, not a consultation anymore. Period.

So we will see what the opposition announces in the coming hours. Get ready, the ride is about to get rougher as the regime is pushed to either compromise or repress as never before, meaning not 100 deaths, but thousands. There is no other way for the regime that yesterday lost any legitimacy it may still had.

And note that the crisis would have been solved easily long ago had the regime wanted to solve it. A mere vote for governors in December 2016 could have done the trick and allow Maduro to serve his full term. Had even 100% of governors been elected for the opposition.


  1. And the announcement is?

    1. Shut down the country for a day. Something the people have expressed they don't want and something the regime has shown it is happy to do itself, ie when power was in short supply. Such a threat.

    2. Anonymous12:33 AM

      "Something the people have expressed they don't want....."

      What people are you talking about? which news have you been watching?

    3. Anonymous it was Rueters and CNN about 2 or 3 months ago (maybe more) the opposition proposed a similiar strike and many in the opposition spoke out saying they were opposed to it, that it only hurt their livelihoods and didn't affect the gov't supporters working and that the gov't wouldn't care if the people perminantly went on strike. If you have not noticed yet the regime has done all it can to destroy productivity. Is all part of the scorched earth effect it has desired from the start. A nation wide strike only affects the regular people, the regime still eats like pigs and goes on its mary way.

    4. Read the peoples comments in tgis article as an example:

    5. Anonymous12:28 PM

      So, what is your solution, Ash? Have discussions/negotiations with the Narco-regime? Give more legitimacy to the dictatorship?

      The only solution out of this mess is mass civil disobedience and work towards getting the army to back the majority which clearly is the opposition now.

    6. Agree massive civil war is the only way out, and likely the only way to turn the military. Not an easy solution as likely tesults in thousands dead but is the only way out of this. Unless you hold out until big industry decides it wants the oil bad enough and big money wants a transition that assures its loans are paid. May happen in a fee years.

    7. Anonymous6:27 PM

      I said "mass civil disobedience", not "massive civil war". Second option you mentioned is not an option, in my opinion.

    8. There is a credible US threat of sanctions on the table should the "constitutional congress" vote go forward. The US administration understands that the methods to select the members of the constitutional congress that Maduro and the Chavistas have created would create a dictatorship in Venezuela. Thus, the US has indicated that nothing is off the table with respect to sanctions.

    9. OMG anonymous mass civil disobedience will not change the regimes ways. They want to create it

  2. The narco-regime will probably try to weasel it's way out ('guabinear'). And they will probably be able to, they don't care about marches or strikes, and they still have the support of the military.

    They'll probably make a few concessions, allow foreign aid, free some political prisoners, cool down the repression and violence a bit. If the shyt hits the fan, call la GN and block access. As time goes by........

    Until the October, 2018 Presidential Elections, which are unavoidable. (The 'constituyente' will not go, even f they are suicidal).The MUD will take charge only in 2019, while the criminal thugs figure ways to escape, hide their stolen money, or bribe their way to blend into the mud, literally. That's almost 2 years from now, in effect.

    Even if the US and India stop buying heavy oil, and selling light oil plus lots of gasoline too; China, Russia and others would bail Chavismo out. With that money, plus dubious bond deals,, etc,, they'll continue to bribe the military, Sebin, GN for protection and to avoid rebellions, with millions to spare for themselves.

    Meanwhile, they are probably thinking: "que pataleen todo lo que quieran"

    1. Anonymous1:28 PM

      It is not going to be that easy for the narco-regime anymore.

  3. I opine that it is going to come crashing down..Much the way the Caracazco did...Maybe a march on Miraflores, refusing to leave despite the brutality and repression that will happen. As the people did in Argentina en 2001 when they went to outside the Casa Rosada and would not leave, and it toppled De La Rua.

    1. Anonymous12:25 PM

      The people will decide the next course of action, not the opposition leaders, not the MUD. Hopefully, the narco-regime will realize much sooner than later that their window of time for governing has long passed.

  4. As ever, thanks Daniel.
    I'd hope, I think ( because who ever knows the end result ) that there are ambitious people in the military who will act, now they know beyond doubt that the majority wants a change of government. However, maybe not, or not until there is a military opposition visible, to join, to lead,to use to justify, or maybe not at all...and they'll do the bidding of the regime...who knows ?
    Sounds indeed like the oppos intend to push this crisis to some sort of conclusion, as they should, though the consequences are unknown and potentially very nasty. However, while there is still the possibility of speaking the truth in public, of gathering in numbers, of marching, one must do everything one can.
    My thoughts are with all oppos right now, and really with virtually all Venezuelans; when terrible things happen, all suffer.
    Hope you, your special other, and all those you care for Daniel, come through whatever's going to take place, safely.

  5. The Regime has no fear...Zero fear...they will repress and repress...their minions have no fear...if you cannot make them bleed..then they will continue with repression...

  6. Civil disobedience? What does Anonymous think they've been doing for the last three months? The normally "laid back" Venezuelan (or so we're told) will have to get bit more serious if s/he wants their country back. Mike is correct. The regime will not give up power without a good fight. They need to bleed but while they keep paying the military it's difficult to see how.


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