MAKING THE NEWS: LITERALLY
May 9, 2003

I have been a little slack lately considering all the things that need to be written as the Chavez administration seems on an all out strategy to avoid the upcoming referendum, and its monitoring by international observers. More on that later. I think I should start first by the latest illustration on this operetta revolution that Chavez leads.

MAY 1, the facts.

200 000 people were in the streets for the opposition at the high tide. The pro Chavez rally does not seem to have garnered much more than 10 000 people. 1 in 20 ratio, quite a poll if you ask me.

Obviously Chavez was quite displeased by it. And as usual that creates a backlash. One possible one, but people like me are just so prejudiced, is that to divert interest in the opposition number, and try to scare them away from their march in the remote case that their number were to match those of the government, was to kill somebody.

This was done apparently by your average “malandro” (thug) nicknamed “Pollo Ronco” (“Hoarse Chicken”, don’t ask!). From the videos it was quite clear that he was waiting for the marchers, and from several neighbor witnesses, he had uttered plenty of threats the days before and was a local terror in the El Silencio area. The total was one death and two injured, and a “hoarse chicken” on the run.

MAY 1, the investigation.

This is when things get more interesting and show how the Bolivarian system of justice works.

Let’s start with the prosecution. Normally there are a few state prosecutors on “guard” that automatically get the initial investigation in such cases. The one on guard were bypassed and the ineffable Danilo Anderson, officially an environmental prosecutor, was called. This prosecutor has curiously being involved in all the notorious case where some pro-chavez guy shot an anti-chavez person. Notably in the prosecution of Gouveia, the killer of three people at Plaza Altamira in early December.

The defense attorney is no less colorful. Not only he is a noted chavista (weird since if it had been a “passional” crime any attorney would have done), but he was the defender of Lina Ron early in 2002. This personage is the bleached hair Passionaria that rules the downtown gangs of Caracas. Officially she is a “social worker” but in fact she is one of the few people inside the chavista world that has created a genuine following, an Evita of sorts. She pretty much coordinates the crowds that mobilize “spontaneously” to any section of Caracas when needed to fight any anti-chavez cause. Some of her high feats were storming Caracas town hall, or blocking the November 4 march to bring the signed petition to the electoral college. This last one ended up with a couple of dozen of bullet wounds and multitudinary tear gassing of friends and foes alike.

Last but not least. “Pollo Ronco” was finally arrested after a surrendering “deal” with Danilo Anderson, and brought in front of Judge Maikel Moreno. This personage was the defender of the Puente Llaguno shooters of April 11 2002 notoriety. As a reward he has been named “accidental” judge, judges that are put on temporarily to supply somebody, or until they are approved by the legal review process. In other words, an ideal system to appoint a judge for a specific murky task, even if he should not otherwise qualify. Judge Moreno was appointed barely long enough to be able to manage the arrest of Carlos Fernandez, the president of the Business organization, in another famous “by-pass”. This by-pass of established channels was so obvious that eventually the defense was able to appeal successfully and get Fernandez freed. Interestingly this judge has been charged with some misdemeanors in the past, apparently bad enough to disqualify him from being a judge. Somehow he has managed to avoid being disbarred by the complacent high court reviewing the case…

I will leave at your own criteria to evaluate the judiciary system that now exists in Venezuela. However I trust that you will agree with me that the government does not balk at anything to try to make the news go its way.

CHAVEZ AND THE MEDIA
May 4, 2003

In the well crafted defense/propaganda of Chavez on the international front, there is a leitmotiv: the Venezuelan media have ganged up on him and broadcast endless attacks. This line is particularly upheld by certain European leftist papers such as the ineffable Le Monde Diplomatique, the monthly paper for the “gauche caviar” (“the caviar-eating leftists”).

There is indeed some truth in that Chavez has “suffered” quite a blistering onslaught from the media, though Chavez and his followers forget, conveniently, to mention that in the first months of his tenure the press in general was quite favorable with the possible exception of El Universal, the only constant critical voice, though not the most strident by far. They also forget to mention that the verbal attacks to the media by Chavez have resulted in countless street attacks to journalists from the chastised media, explaining perhaps why the media has sped up its defection from the chavista cause.

But close scrutiny of the situation, as always, shows that the actual reality is possibly quite different from the reported reality.

El Universal publishes today a recount of all the “cadenas” through the Chavez tenure. By law governments in Venezuela are allowed to commandeer all the media to emit important messages to the nation. Upon a few minutes notice, all media must surrender their signal to the one from the state owned TV and radio. Thus for a given amount of time, at the government discretion, the same message is transmitted all through the country by all TV and radio stations, be them local or national. Only cable TV escapes this.

In previous administrations, “cadenas” were used sparingly, on state holidays, for institutional messages or to announce some public interest services such at school start. Or to announce some important policy changes, the reception of a particular important visitor, etc… Perhaps the total was an average of once a month for up to 30 minutes. During president Caldera first term, he had a weekly “cadena” address of 30 minutes. But its scheduled format was not as disruptive as the “cadena” that can break in at any time.

Well, all records have been broken by Chavez. According to El Universal reporting on the numbers provided by AGB panamericana (a ratings company) Chavez or his ministers have made “cadenas” for a total of 428 hours since 1999 in little more than 4 years. Caldera talked for 130 hours in 5 years! And the pace in 2003 has increased considerably to the point that by April 30 “cadenas” had covered 56.5 hours compared to the 1999 total of 67.6 hours, the lowest “cadena” year so far in Chavez rule.

What does this mean?

Chavez ,and on occasion a minister, talks for an average of 1.8 hours a week on enforced broadcasting. In 2003 the pace has reached 3.3 hours a week!. These 1.8 hours are actually 0.8 hours on PRIME TIME! And the Prime Time portion in 2003 is 1.7 hours weekly so far. Without, of course, any compensation to the private networks and radio stations for lost advertisement revenue.

To give further dimension to this abuse one must realize that the “cadenas” are broadcast by the state TV (VTV) and 4, FOUR, national networks plus all radio stations. In other words Chavez gets a 5 times multiplying factor. And the local networks are not included.

Of course this forced coverage is in addition to the normal news reported by the networks. More damningly, there is a weekly TV address on state TV, 147 emissions so far at an average of 3 to 4 hours, at taxpayer expense, without any question session for the press and media. That is, no accounting! Chavez perorates all what he wants, says any inanity or accusation he seems fit to say and no journalist is allowed to ask him for evidence or explanations. If these addresses are not anymore on “cadena” (they were in the first shows) they still make a significant portion of the nightly news and talk shows.

Next time you hear Chavez complaining that he does not get a fair hearing from the media in Venezuela, think twice before feeling sorry for him. He gets plenty of coverage to transmit his unedited speeches through ALL networks.

CARACAS MAY DAY
May 1, 2003

May Day in the world (besides the US where the original repressed strike on May Day created this world event) is supposed to be a day where workers march to claim for better wages, working conditions, and other benefits. But in Chavez Venezuela it has become a day of protest where bosses and workers meet in the street of Caracas to tell Chavez how unhappy they are with his rule. Chavez keeps operating political miracles!

Since May Day is a holiday falling on Thursday it was a good excuse to leave San Felipe and go to a march for the first time since last January. I met with some friends at 10 AM and we took the subway to Plaza Morelos where the different unions were organizing their different groups as well as a few NGO and opposition parties, mainly from the left.

Today was a very nice and sunny day, and in spite of my hat and SPF 20 I did get some sun. I did stood or walked until around 3 PM. The march was not very long, perhaps considering that there has not been a serious movement since after El Firmazo. However, for a change the opposition dared to march to Plaza O’Leary, in the heart of El Silencio, considered a Chavez stronghold, about 3 blocks from Miraflores Palace.

The attendance was very good, better than I was expecting after the doldrums of these past two months. At least from what I saw, I can estimate from past attendance that at some point up to 200 thousand might have marched. With those that come and go all the time, I think that I might agree with the organizers talking of 400 thousand marchers over the event. We are not back to the million, but times have changed and this participation might be too strong for Chavez’s taste after his offensive of the past two months.

Chavistas had their own march where they were hoping to launch their new “independent” Trade Union. But I suspect that the pro Chavez march was not too successful since many of his supporters preferred to come and harass the opposition march. Indeed, 4 blocks before Plaza O'Leary, a whole bunch of people started to run back towards us as some shooting happened there. Apparently, as of tonight news, a worker from Aragua state was shot by two people that fled on a motor bike. Or were whisked away to anonymity by the security police. Rumors were flying everywhere.

We kept marching. This was indeed a little bit scary since if the shootings had happened on Avenida Universidad where I was it could have created a stampede! I wanted to go back at this point but my party was nosy, and the organizers told us that things were under control and we could keep going. Therefore, we went to Plaza O’Leary. Eventually we reached it but this last leg was more scary. Large numbers of National Guards were barring the entrance of avenues that go toward Miraflores, and of course plenty of hecklers were in front of them, unperturbed. And the march had thinned some so it felt a little bit uncomfortable.

I have to add that we were made even more anxious by an event that happened right in front of us. We saw somebody escaping from the cops and caught up right in front of us! He was an opposition marcher and, apparently, he picked a fight with a heckler. It was impressive for the speed at which it took place, and the post realization that had there been gun shots it would have been too close for comfort. That a few hundred were around me is not comforting... And had I seen somebody shot in front would not have made think of the odds in my favor for the next round…

But in spite of that we did reach the edge of Plaza O’Leary, rather reluctantly on my side. But we did. Since the area seemed a little bit agitated we decided that it was good enough and headed back, with a quick stop at McDonalds were I tried their new product minted for Venezuela: fried Yucca! Greasy…

Of course the march was beautiful, a sea of colorful Venezuelan flags ahead of, and behind, us. I took nice pictures. I also took pictures of the National Guard blocking every single street that would go in the direction of the National Assembly or Miraflores Palace. US marines in Iraq were not any better endowed. And people were furious!!! The Metropolitan Police had actually a cordon between the National Guards and us. The frightening thing was that the officers seemed to be taunting the marchers instead of being in clear defensive and non-provoking positions. Confirming my suspicions that Chavez is selecting the members of the National Guard to make them his own praetorian guards. Oh well...

Anyway, I came back satisfied but more worried than in the January marches. The mood was different this time. People seem in a somber mood, more grimly determined. Things are different now. We'll see.

VENEZUELA AFTER 4 YEARS OF THE CHAVEZ ADMINISTRATION.
April 24, 2003

Chavez was sworn in office on February 1999. Thus he has finished a term by US standards. Several prime ministers and even presidents of the US have had books dedicated to them even though they did not reach 4 years in office or finish their first term. It is fair to evaluate Chavez tenure.

POLITICAL

Chavez was elected on a strong political platform. He sold the idea that a new constitution would solve many a Venezuelan problem. Indeed December 15 of 1999 he got his referendum approving the new constitution. This one allowed him in the following months to sweep away most of the institutions, and the people associated with him, as holdovers of the corrupt old system. This orgy of replacement was basically done by August 2000.

No doubt it was a very big political victory. Was it a “good” victory?

The constitution was written too fast, too extensively, and without good care of the transition period procedures while switching from one to the other. Today, many of the problems encountered by Chavez actually come from these gaps and loose ends. For example the problem in the redistribution of moneys between the central government and the local ones. For example the messy judicial system, near chaos and insignificance. And more damming, the realization that a lot of the social promises made in that constitution cannot be paid off. Not now, and possibly never. Yet, written in they are.

But for Chavez it reached his objectives, to destroy many of the normal barriers in a democracy that limit the excess of governments. Chavez does as he pleases, pretty much. In front of him there is only the press and media left, the opposition marching in the streets, and foreign opinion up to a point.

ECONOMICAL

This is very simple. The rate of exchange when Chavez took office was below 600 Bolivares for a dollar. Today, with a fixed exchange system, the Bolivar is fixed at 1610 for the dollar but on the black market it is around 2200. By any standard, trebling the value of the US dollar points to a mismanagement of the economy and the public administration.

Other indicators are as catastrophic. Real inflation through the 4 years is estimated around 100% and did not go any higher since the country has been in a semi constant recession through the four years. The best the government has to show for itself was 2001 with a meager 3% increase, bracketed by two years of production output decrease. 2002 numbers are not clear at this point but they seem to point to a 5-7% decrease.

Apparently of 10 able bodied Venezuelans in the work force, only 3 hold a steady job. 2 are plain jobless and 5 work in the informal sector or occasional jobs.

Inflation + Recession + Devaluation + Jobless Increase. The almost impossible equation has been achieved.

And I will not go into the destruction of the industrial network with continuous closings, the sacking of the oil workers, the emigration of educated elite, the pauperization of the University system, etc…

SOCIAL

There is of course no surprise here. A government that has worried only about politics and that run to the ground the economy can only expect to have a huge social crisis in its hands.

In real value the minimal wage is today 136 US dollars a month. Down from 225 a year ago. Higher wages and compensations of course are hit proportionately even more since many enterprises have not increased upper management wages in more than a year. Thus the purchasing power of the people has been dramatically cut. How do we see this?

If you walk Caracas streets, you will see more homeless and street children than ever. If you hold a business that still operates you will see long fired workers trying to get their job back and promising to behave. If you must resort to public health services, you will be asked to buy your own medicines, to bring food and linen if you need to be hospitalized. The hospital is willing to give you medicines, they just run out and the government is not providing enough. Tales of hungry children sent to schools do not make it anymore to the news.

Of course this gives rise to crime. El Universal reports in a graphic on Wednesday April 23 that 9620 people were murdered in Venezuela in 2002. That is right, 9620 people were murdered for robberies, gang fights for street controls, domestic violence and others. This is for a population of 23 million people. In 1998, the year that saw the election of Chavez the total murders were 4550. In 1999 this climbed to 8022, steadied at 7960 in 2001 and zoomed to 9620. Projections for 2003 are above 10,000 since the first quarter of 203 is already at 2720.

You need a sense of perspective? You have to wait for 1992 (3,366) to find a year with as many murders in total than for the first quarter only of 2003. To find such murder rates one would have to look at countries in the middle of a civil war, such as Colombia. How many people have been killed during the Iraq war?

Corruption is at an all time high, and immune from any type of prosecution it seems. This I write in the Social section instead on the Economy section. I think that the moral damage that the Chavez corruption has done to the Army and administration will have serious consequences at the social level. Proof of corruption? Well, the Chavez administration has received the largest amount of dollars that any previous administration has received. And left the worse economic crisis of our history. Where is the money?

CONCLUSION

The Chavez administration is turning out to be perhaps the worst one of the last century of our history. Clearly, with just what is written above a US president, heck!, any president would have a hard time to achieve re-election by fair ways. This explains perhaps the instability going on in Venezuela these days.

Venezuela Legalizes Import of Newsprint
APRIL 18, 2003
Venezuela Legalizes Import of Newsprint
As Dailies Face Dwindling Supply

By Mark Fitzgerald

CHICAGO -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's government recently added newsprint to the list of goods that can be imported by newspapers that have been rationing their dwindling supply since last November.

Newspapers had accused Chavez of taking revenge for their opposition to his rule by effectively banning newsprint imports through currency controls.

Even with newsprint on the "importable" list, the complex currency regulations are still stymieing newspapers' efforts to obtain dollars to pay for the commodity, Rafael Poleo, editor of the daily El Nuevo Pais told E&P Online. Venezuelan dailies are eliminating pages and are now as thin as they were during World War II, said Poleo, who indicated he has enough newsprint to last until about June.

[from Editor&Publisher online]

Venezuelan Prez Starves Papers of Newsprint
Govt. Uses Currency Controls to Stifle Press

CHICAGO -- "Freedom of the press," journalist A.J. Liebling wrote back in 1960, "is guaranteed only to those who own one." But, in the face of a vigorous and critical press, Venezuela President Hugo Chavez has figured a way around that guarantee: Last month, he imposed currency controls that effectively deny newsprint for those hostile printing presses.

[From Editor&Publisher online]

April 10, on the eve of April 11.

One year ago Venezuela was in total turmoil. A stubborn president was faced by an opposition that in a very few months had become formidable, if unorganized. On that Wednesday 10 2002 we were living the third general strike in our history, the second in less than 6 months. The leaders of the oil industry had been fired and an extraordinary show of support had come from the people. Streets were everyday fuller of people to an extent never seen before. During the afternoon of Wednesday 10 a march and rally were called in front of the main offices of the Sate Oil Company, for Thursday 11 in the morning. This march was the biggest one ever seen in Venezuelan history. For some unclear reasons it decided to march directly towards Miraflores to ask the president for his resignation. At some point on April 11 the president, Hugo Chavez decided to deploy the army and stop the progress of that march. The army refused to lend itself to a maneuver that could end in the shooting of a peaceful unarmed march. Only some units of the National Guard were around to defend the Miraflores Palace, and a few thousands of Chavez supporters. When the front to the march arrived in downtown Caracas a confusing shooting started. The best-documented shots were fired by chavistas from above Puente Llaguno, one of them an elected official. That video went around the globe. All in all 2 dozen people were shot and several dozen injured. In the evening Chavez offered his resignation. Three days after, the surprise at the swiftness of the downfall contributed to create an administrative chaos that eventually allowed for the return of Chavez into office, considering that he resigned but never signed it.

One year after we still do not know for sure how many people were killed (19 seems the consensus). We know even less how many were hurt, and even less how many were killed or injured in the days of looting and rioting that followed. Only the people that were filmed on Llaguno had been arrested but after many a legalistic loophole are now free and considered “heroes” of the revolution. The government has been trying to pin the events and the massacre on the opposition but has failed completely to do so, or even to produce a single viable arrest. Even the High Court has ruled that April 11 was a vacuum power and no coup took place on that precise day. Suspiciously the government through the National Assembly has managed to block the installation of an independent commission to investigate all of these events, as if the same government were the least interested party to know what exactly happened. One year after, one is allowed to wonder if such a commission could now bring light to the events. One also is allowed to wonder what justice exists in our country.

Yet, in spite of the economic crisis that was aggravated by this last year turmoil, the government finds the funds to install today a forum on “Solidarity with the Bolivarian Revolution” managing to find enough people to attend and vent their political ideas. Why on this date? What is there to celebrate? If you are unable or unwilling to find the people that did the shooting, could you not at least respect a date that has no glory for any of those involved with?