CHAVEZ 'S OFFENSIVE ON THE ECONOMY FRONT ? [1]
May 21, 2003

After the crippling strike of December-January and the even more crippling economic results of 2002 [2], Chavez needed to do something to stop the bleeding in his revenues. The simplest way was of course to establish a currency control exchange on January 22. By this stroke he forbade any Venezuelan citizen to purchase any foreign currency and he reserved the right to fix the exchange rate and the amount of foreign currency that people would be allowed to buy, eventually. A price control scheme for basic food staples was set up along, and already collapsed.

The controls were announced with an initial moratorium of 5 working days. Today, May 21, the dollars sold are a risible few millions, and only as of this week. The first authorization was announced grand style by Hernadez Behrens, who repeated in front of the cameras the incredible announcement that Cargill had been allowed to purchase 8,000 dollars. Eventually somebody must have told him how ridiculous that sum was and a few days later he tried to say that he meant 8 million. Cargill has remained mute.

It remains that from January 22 until May 16 the private sector has not exchanged a single dollar. Justification? Well, people that want dollars for business have to justify their need and prove that they owe nothing to the government. In a country of deadbeats this was OK, however what was not OK is the sheer incompetence of the government to set up the registration system. One must wonder actually if people can be so incompetent. Is there a devilish purpose behind this? The apparent incompetence of people seems a very good first hint. And there are more.

One governmental option would be to simplify their system at least for some type of imports, such as medicines. Instead, to compensate for the lack of imports in raw materials such as wheat or soy for animal feed, Chavez administration has announced plans to buy frozen chicken from Brazil and a whole assortment of substandard goods through Cuba as an intermediary! This for distribution at subsidized and controlled prices. The brandished excuse is that the private sector pretends that the fixed prices are below actual costs, so the government will show them. Of course to distribute this imports the government is setting up its own food stores, and it is not paying import taxes which the private sector is forced to pay, increasing thus its costs, while making it impossible to compete against the state. Fair?

Even a Morgan Stanley expert sent to see what was going on came with a lapidary review: “it is all Politics” (EN) [3].

CONSEQUENCES

The effect of a two months general strike followed by a three months import “strike” have had a deadly toll on an economy which needs to import 60% of its raw materials.

The Central Bank, which has a more moderate forecast due to its lack of complete independence from the government, has already quite staggering numbers. The expected decrease in the GPI for 2003 is expected to be 17 % (after the 9% decrease of 2002). Just for the first quarter the shock is 35% mainly due to the oil decrease estimated at 45-48% on its own. Its posterior recovery explains why the overall will be 17% (UN). Of course if Chavez is right and the oil industry recovers fully that means that the 17% will be mostly from the private sector.

But private banks are a little bit more pessimistic and talk of a 40-42% first quarter, and a 33.5% inflation for the 2003. Business associations point out that in 1999 there were 11 535 industrial establishments in Venezuela and that by the end of 2003 the number should be down to by 60% to more or less 4500 establishments. This would imply a loss of 800 000 thousand jobs on top of the 600 000 lost until 2002.

A significant report on the custom activities show that this sector has fired 15 000 people since January. Customs revenue has dropped 60% so far this year even though all the imports that were stopped during the strike came in after the imposition of the currency control and thus were processed (EN). The revenues are expected to drop further affecting all the activities linked to custom: transportation, custom agents, shipping, services and others.

Obviously this deepening crisis is going to severely curtail government revenue. No official audit or accounting comes from the oil industry since the take over by Chavez hacks, there is no way to know what is really inside the national treasure. This silence by itself is telling of the mounting financial problems encountered by the administration.

Yet the government tries to appear unperturbed and pretends that everything is returning to normal. One must wonder whether Chavez is looking forward the final economic collapse.


[1] This is the first installment of a series of articles on the Chavez counter-offensive.
[2] A drop of 9% in the GPI (Gross Production Index)
[3] Unfortunately due to the crisis several Venezuelan papers have started charging for Internet access. Thus my ability to put links has been curtailed. For this series of articles I will use the convention UN = el Universal (still free thus some links will appear), EN = El Nacional, for articles appeared between May 11 and today.

CHAVEZ REDUX
May 20, 2003

Venezuela is experimenting these days quite a lot of maneuvering. It is rather difficult for the casual observer to make sense of it, and in all truth what I will be trying to explain now might be contradicted by events within a few days. The root of it all is of course Chavez trying to keep on the offensive since last February snub (see Vignettes form El Firmazo) while the recall election date is approaching, inexorably. With a sinking economy and popularity Chavez is reduced to find creative ways to hold to power and pursue his authoritarian “project”. In other words he needs to find ways to suspend that referendum until he has a chance to win it, either by increasing popular fervor, or by “tricks” has Carter mentioned in his January visit.

The strategies that Chavez is using are several fold. In no particular order:

1- The currency control exchange in place since January 22. This one is clearly destined to weaken the ability of the private sector to finance the electoral campaign for a recall election. An economical war in due form, waged by the Chavez administration on the biggies of the private sector. That the small guys are the unwilling victims is not to be a distraction from the ultimate goal. Add to this that now the money produced by the State Oil company PDVSA can be disposed of by the government as it pleases, without anyone knowing how much is produced nor where it is spend.

2- The social offensive to try to recover some of the popular support that Chavez enjoyed once. By creating rural movements, installing its own trade unions, letting crime increase, and spreading money around, he is basically trying to convey the image that “there is a pot of gold somewhere but to dip in it you must be with me”. The beauty of this is that if it does not work there will be enough trouble generated to claim that it is impossible to hold an election with such an agitation.

3- The legislative offensive is quite clear cut: with the impending economic collapse that is hanging over us, Chavez needs to do some spin control, or damage control. This can be done by negating dollars to the Media or by passing a law, based supposedly on child protection, to limit the type of news that the media can transmit during daytime and prime time. This legislative offensive is assorted with an attempt at controlling the composition of the electoral directors, attempts to revamp the high court to ensure a locked pro Chavez majority and assorted other measures to limit the autonomy of the local powers that do not swear allegiance to the master.

Obviously, a multi pronged approach to trump the deck in case an election must be held. In the next posts I will be trying to develop each one of these themes.

STREET KIDS
May 11, 2003

Among the spectacular failures of Chavez there is one that shines high: the handling of street kids. This problem is of course endemic in the world and local authorities have diverse programs that deal more or less with the situation, usually less. The presence of street kids is not necessarily the fault of public policies. Social programs cannot foretell all human failures at family level. They are thus mostly targeted at dealing with the consequences of the social break down that dissolved the family unit.

In Venezuela, things are a little bit different. The macho mentality here has a long tradition of leaving unwed mothers and not all of them make it. This mothers might end up in the street with the kid, and eventually the kid might as well decide to strike it on his or her own. Recent numbers published by El Universal today are not very encouraging as to the possibility of things getting better on this front. For Mother’s day the paper publishes the 2001 births numbers.

Total births = 529 552
Births from married women = 146 506
Births from unmarried women but within a family unit = 264 446
Births of unwed women = 108 330

In other words 20,5 % of births in Venezuela in 2001 were without a recognized father.

Ah! And the age of the mothers! 28 758 births are from unwed women that are less than 19 years old. That is, 5,4 % of births in 2001 were to mothers that likely have not finished high school and that will depend on relatives to be able to raise their kid. I think these numbers are quite staggering and point out to a dark future for the births in that 5,4 % group. To this we can add the 11,3 % of births of women less than 19 year old but living with somebody albeit unwed. The odds that many of these women will end up abandoned by their mate are not insignificant.

Of course the prevailing misery and social habits were inherited by Chavez. However, it is fair to discuss what he has done about it. Early in his term, Chavez made a famous discourse, which excerpts are profusely replayed these days. In this speech, he said among other inanities that if within a year there were still street kids he will stop calling himself Hugo Chavez. At the time this created quite a buzz and plenty of initiatives, even at the local level. I was involved by accident with one of these activities in San Felipe while I hosted a friend working with street kids in the US. She gave a seminar, got newspaper interviews, held meetings with me as the translator.

Among some initiatives two big projects came directly from Miraflores Palace. One was the recovery of a big resort abandoned on the Caracas shoreline: Los Caracas. That resort was created 50 years ago as an affordable alternative to the bureaucratic middle class. It pretty much was neglected through the years until it had to be basically abandoned. The idea was to create a special school, away from Caracas, to rehabilitate street kids. Some work started but the deluge of 1999 cut off the road for a few weeks and the project was just shelved. Another project was the recovery of another structure from the 50ies that had been abandoned in Caracas: El Helicoide, a spiral shaped commercial center that was never completed and ended up as a white elephant smack in downtown Caracas. Nobody knows why, but the restoration work was transferred to the political police DISIP and that was that. Now several “dissidents” have had to spend a night at “El Helicoide”, but no street kids that we know off.

During these years it is fair to say that the economic situation has not helped this initiative of Chavez, even though he can be blamed for the sluggish economy. The problem is that he put his name over this initiative like he did not do on anything else. Yet, he has just ignored it even though it was not the most expensive of the social programs.

If you go now downtown Caracas you will be able to see more street kids than ever, scavenging garbage, panhandling, looking for something to snatch. Heartbreaking. And it is made worse with the spectacular growth of an informal commercial economy. This growth of a survival economy due to the collapse of the formal system has littered the main avenues of Caracas with temporary stands and shacks that, of course, provide an ideal hideout for all sorts of thieves, druggies and street kids.

OBJECTIVITY IN REPORTING
May 11, 2003

Today El Universal editorial struck a chord in me. To the point that I have decided to translate it. It talks about how the foreign press on occasion is not afraid of misreporting the news for some obscure interest. Without further ado, today’s editorial, followed by some comments.

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Objective Journalism?

A lot of ink has been spilled here and abroad, lecturing over a supposed lack of journalistic objectivity that some qualify the Venezuelan media with, without much investigation on the events, nor a fair evaluation of the context under which the media undertake their difficult labor.

Fortunately, time and menaces _ thuggery withstanding _ that range from promoting violence to induce assault against journalists, who number hundreds of victims, to the use of ISLR [1], opening of administrative investigations, currency exchange controls and “leyes mordaza” [2], with the objective to cause self-censorship, account for this harsh reality.

The Venezuelan media, although working under an atmosphere of racketeering, have managed adequate levels of professionalism and productivity. Numerous are the investigative works published that support a flow of news that everyday, more and more, point to the nightmare that this regime is becoming, able to exterminate the opposition, destroy institutions and terminate the repose of Venezuelans.

It is disconcerting that sporadically some people report overseas a sort of ritornello, plagued by prejudice, superficiality and concepts with factual mistakes, over aspects related to the popular support of Chavez, or the bounties of a revolution that sometimes rings as a justice bringing to them and some times avenging. This is so, that given the outcry that exists in Venezuela respecting the celebration of a recall election and against a recent New York Times article, two US pollsters felt obliged to send the editor a letter (Chavez and Venezuelans) published May 3, 2003, warning of the mistake that ignoring these realities is. Amen of this other French editor, propaganda master of the regime.

The scandalous controversy that CNN is embroiled in, as a consequence of its decision no to divulge the assassinations and tortures of its local team during the regime of Hussein, allegedly for fear of reprisals and loss of access, which forbade the world to know first hand these horrors, is a warning against the danger of the tyrannies that skillfully charm useful people, to slow down the understanding of the shortfalls and vexations that they subject their citizens to.

[1] Income tax system in Venezuela
[2] “Gag rule law”, currently under discussion.

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Now let me start by saying that El Universal has been the first target of Chavez and thus it is a little bit sensitive. Chavez’s Venezuela is not Saddam’s Iraq, by far. That Chavez might want to become a tropical Saddam is another issue.

However El Universal underlines a very real issue that I have been addressing regularly through these reports.

Many in the foreign press do not seem to try to understand really what is happening here, and worse, try to make it fit pre-established models of third world conflicts: black versus white, rich versus poor, cities versus country sides. This sometimes sounds extremely condescending almost implying that our societies are too primitive to understand concepts of freedom and welfare the way these journalists think. Two of the main culprits are Juan Forero from the New York Times, or Ignacio Ramonet of the Monde Diplomatique who beats all records in cynicism. At least articles of Juan Forero are sometimes contradicted by editorials of the New York Times or balanced by excellent articles like the one of Moises Naim in March. Still, it is incomprehensible that Mr. Forero goes unchecked at this point in the game, though admittedly on occasion doubt seems to creep into his writing.

But Le Monde Diplomatique, as the editorial alluded to “Amen of this other French editor, propaganda master of the regime” has indeed become the official propaganda agency of the regime in France, going as far as organizing a Bolivarian Forum. The funding still remains to be accounted, and not only in the pages of Le Monde Diplomatique which so far as not published a diverging opinion. Or at least I did not find it. (Note, the venerable Le Monde is more balanced, Le Monde Diplomatique is a monthly paper, beware of confusion). The point is that Ignacio Ramonet is clearly using Chavez to promote his image of the intellectual leader of the anti globalization. Chavez is clearly using him to get the intellectual patina that he has rotundly failed to get among Venezuelan serious intellectuals that have mostly abandoned him.

The CNN reference is actually chilling and I am adding to end this post what I found on the New York Times after a quick search. Additional comments are unnecessary after reading this little bit that the archives grant, but I will remind you that on January 19 I witnessed how a large crowd of tens of thousand booed out of the stage the CNN journalist Criskaut that was trying to report. I wonder if CNN ever mentioned this anecdote…

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Editorial Desk | April 21, 2003, Monday
Editorial Observer; The Rules for Covering Brutal Dictatorships Aren't Black and White

By ETHAN BRONNER (NYT)
Late Edition - Final , Section A , Page 22 , Column 1

ABSTRACT - Ethan Bronner Editorial Observer on Eason Jordon's revelation that CNN failed to report some despicable facts about regime of Saddam Hussein in order to protect news organization's Iraqi staff; says controversy highlights uncomfortable reality that covering totalitarian states forces journalists to act in compromising ways Eason Jordan, the news chief of CNN, unburdened himself of some horrific secrets recently and is the object of withering attack. In an article on the facing page on April 11, Mr. Jordan said that on trips to Baghdad, he learned despicable facts about the regime of Saddam Hussein that CNN could not report without endangering its Iraqi staff. Among those facts: a CNN cameraman was tortured by government thugs; Uday Hussein, the dictator's son, said he intended to murder two brothers-in-law and King Hussein of Jordan; and an aide to Uday said his front teeth had been yanked out with pliers by Uday's henchmen, who told him not to wear dentures so he would remember never to upset his boss. To have reported any of this, Mr. Jordan wrote, would have endangered his local employees and their families.

Nobody assailing Mr. Jordan -- in a flood of letters to The Times and in opinion columns and broadcasts -- questioned the danger. But many argued that CNN should have closed its bureau and then reported the truth. Moreover, they said, CNN's decision to keep a presence in Baghdad had less to do with concern for Iraqis or journalism than with money. With an eye on its ratings, CNN had sold its soul.

MAKING THE NEWS: LITERALLY
May 9, 2003

I have been a little slack lately considering all the things that need to be written as the Chavez administration seems on an all out strategy to avoid the upcoming referendum, and its monitoring by international observers. More on that later. I think I should start first by the latest illustration on this operetta revolution that Chavez leads.

MAY 1, the facts.

200 000 people were in the streets for the opposition at the high tide. The pro Chavez rally does not seem to have garnered much more than 10 000 people. 1 in 20 ratio, quite a poll if you ask me.

Obviously Chavez was quite displeased by it. And as usual that creates a backlash. One possible one, but people like me are just so prejudiced, is that to divert interest in the opposition number, and try to scare them away from their march in the remote case that their number were to match those of the government, was to kill somebody.

This was done apparently by your average “malandro” (thug) nicknamed “Pollo Ronco” (“Hoarse Chicken”, don’t ask!). From the videos it was quite clear that he was waiting for the marchers, and from several neighbor witnesses, he had uttered plenty of threats the days before and was a local terror in the El Silencio area. The total was one death and two injured, and a “hoarse chicken” on the run.

MAY 1, the investigation.

This is when things get more interesting and show how the Bolivarian system of justice works.

Let’s start with the prosecution. Normally there are a few state prosecutors on “guard” that automatically get the initial investigation in such cases. The one on guard were bypassed and the ineffable Danilo Anderson, officially an environmental prosecutor, was called. This prosecutor has curiously being involved in all the notorious case where some pro-chavez guy shot an anti-chavez person. Notably in the prosecution of Gouveia, the killer of three people at Plaza Altamira in early December.

The defense attorney is no less colorful. Not only he is a noted chavista (weird since if it had been a “passional” crime any attorney would have done), but he was the defender of Lina Ron early in 2002. This personage is the bleached hair Passionaria that rules the downtown gangs of Caracas. Officially she is a “social worker” but in fact she is one of the few people inside the chavista world that has created a genuine following, an Evita of sorts. She pretty much coordinates the crowds that mobilize “spontaneously” to any section of Caracas when needed to fight any anti-chavez cause. Some of her high feats were storming Caracas town hall, or blocking the November 4 march to bring the signed petition to the electoral college. This last one ended up with a couple of dozen of bullet wounds and multitudinary tear gassing of friends and foes alike.

Last but not least. “Pollo Ronco” was finally arrested after a surrendering “deal” with Danilo Anderson, and brought in front of Judge Maikel Moreno. This personage was the defender of the Puente Llaguno shooters of April 11 2002 notoriety. As a reward he has been named “accidental” judge, judges that are put on temporarily to supply somebody, or until they are approved by the legal review process. In other words, an ideal system to appoint a judge for a specific murky task, even if he should not otherwise qualify. Judge Moreno was appointed barely long enough to be able to manage the arrest of Carlos Fernandez, the president of the Business organization, in another famous “by-pass”. This by-pass of established channels was so obvious that eventually the defense was able to appeal successfully and get Fernandez freed. Interestingly this judge has been charged with some misdemeanors in the past, apparently bad enough to disqualify him from being a judge. Somehow he has managed to avoid being disbarred by the complacent high court reviewing the case…

I will leave at your own criteria to evaluate the judiciary system that now exists in Venezuela. However I trust that you will agree with me that the government does not balk at anything to try to make the news go its way.

CHAVEZ AND THE MEDIA
May 4, 2003

In the well crafted defense/propaganda of Chavez on the international front, there is a leitmotiv: the Venezuelan media have ganged up on him and broadcast endless attacks. This line is particularly upheld by certain European leftist papers such as the ineffable Le Monde Diplomatique, the monthly paper for the “gauche caviar” (“the caviar-eating leftists”).

There is indeed some truth in that Chavez has “suffered” quite a blistering onslaught from the media, though Chavez and his followers forget, conveniently, to mention that in the first months of his tenure the press in general was quite favorable with the possible exception of El Universal, the only constant critical voice, though not the most strident by far. They also forget to mention that the verbal attacks to the media by Chavez have resulted in countless street attacks to journalists from the chastised media, explaining perhaps why the media has sped up its defection from the chavista cause.

But close scrutiny of the situation, as always, shows that the actual reality is possibly quite different from the reported reality.

El Universal publishes today a recount of all the “cadenas” through the Chavez tenure. By law governments in Venezuela are allowed to commandeer all the media to emit important messages to the nation. Upon a few minutes notice, all media must surrender their signal to the one from the state owned TV and radio. Thus for a given amount of time, at the government discretion, the same message is transmitted all through the country by all TV and radio stations, be them local or national. Only cable TV escapes this.

In previous administrations, “cadenas” were used sparingly, on state holidays, for institutional messages or to announce some public interest services such at school start. Or to announce some important policy changes, the reception of a particular important visitor, etc… Perhaps the total was an average of once a month for up to 30 minutes. During president Caldera first term, he had a weekly “cadena” address of 30 minutes. But its scheduled format was not as disruptive as the “cadena” that can break in at any time.

Well, all records have been broken by Chavez. According to El Universal reporting on the numbers provided by AGB panamericana (a ratings company) Chavez or his ministers have made “cadenas” for a total of 428 hours since 1999 in little more than 4 years. Caldera talked for 130 hours in 5 years! And the pace in 2003 has increased considerably to the point that by April 30 “cadenas” had covered 56.5 hours compared to the 1999 total of 67.6 hours, the lowest “cadena” year so far in Chavez rule.

What does this mean?

Chavez ,and on occasion a minister, talks for an average of 1.8 hours a week on enforced broadcasting. In 2003 the pace has reached 3.3 hours a week!. These 1.8 hours are actually 0.8 hours on PRIME TIME! And the Prime Time portion in 2003 is 1.7 hours weekly so far. Without, of course, any compensation to the private networks and radio stations for lost advertisement revenue.

To give further dimension to this abuse one must realize that the “cadenas” are broadcast by the state TV (VTV) and 4, FOUR, national networks plus all radio stations. In other words Chavez gets a 5 times multiplying factor. And the local networks are not included.

Of course this forced coverage is in addition to the normal news reported by the networks. More damningly, there is a weekly TV address on state TV, 147 emissions so far at an average of 3 to 4 hours, at taxpayer expense, without any question session for the press and media. That is, no accounting! Chavez perorates all what he wants, says any inanity or accusation he seems fit to say and no journalist is allowed to ask him for evidence or explanations. If these addresses are not anymore on “cadena” (they were in the first shows) they still make a significant portion of the nightly news and talk shows.

Next time you hear Chavez complaining that he does not get a fair hearing from the media in Venezuela, think twice before feeling sorry for him. He gets plenty of coverage to transmit his unedited speeches through ALL networks.

CARACAS MAY DAY
May 1, 2003

May Day in the world (besides the US where the original repressed strike on May Day created this world event) is supposed to be a day where workers march to claim for better wages, working conditions, and other benefits. But in Chavez Venezuela it has become a day of protest where bosses and workers meet in the street of Caracas to tell Chavez how unhappy they are with his rule. Chavez keeps operating political miracles!

Since May Day is a holiday falling on Thursday it was a good excuse to leave San Felipe and go to a march for the first time since last January. I met with some friends at 10 AM and we took the subway to Plaza Morelos where the different unions were organizing their different groups as well as a few NGO and opposition parties, mainly from the left.

Today was a very nice and sunny day, and in spite of my hat and SPF 20 I did get some sun. I did stood or walked until around 3 PM. The march was not very long, perhaps considering that there has not been a serious movement since after El Firmazo. However, for a change the opposition dared to march to Plaza O’Leary, in the heart of El Silencio, considered a Chavez stronghold, about 3 blocks from Miraflores Palace.

The attendance was very good, better than I was expecting after the doldrums of these past two months. At least from what I saw, I can estimate from past attendance that at some point up to 200 thousand might have marched. With those that come and go all the time, I think that I might agree with the organizers talking of 400 thousand marchers over the event. We are not back to the million, but times have changed and this participation might be too strong for Chavez’s taste after his offensive of the past two months.

Chavistas had their own march where they were hoping to launch their new “independent” Trade Union. But I suspect that the pro Chavez march was not too successful since many of his supporters preferred to come and harass the opposition march. Indeed, 4 blocks before Plaza O'Leary, a whole bunch of people started to run back towards us as some shooting happened there. Apparently, as of tonight news, a worker from Aragua state was shot by two people that fled on a motor bike. Or were whisked away to anonymity by the security police. Rumors were flying everywhere.

We kept marching. This was indeed a little bit scary since if the shootings had happened on Avenida Universidad where I was it could have created a stampede! I wanted to go back at this point but my party was nosy, and the organizers told us that things were under control and we could keep going. Therefore, we went to Plaza O’Leary. Eventually we reached it but this last leg was more scary. Large numbers of National Guards were barring the entrance of avenues that go toward Miraflores, and of course plenty of hecklers were in front of them, unperturbed. And the march had thinned some so it felt a little bit uncomfortable.

I have to add that we were made even more anxious by an event that happened right in front of us. We saw somebody escaping from the cops and caught up right in front of us! He was an opposition marcher and, apparently, he picked a fight with a heckler. It was impressive for the speed at which it took place, and the post realization that had there been gun shots it would have been too close for comfort. That a few hundred were around me is not comforting... And had I seen somebody shot in front would not have made think of the odds in my favor for the next round…

But in spite of that we did reach the edge of Plaza O’Leary, rather reluctantly on my side. But we did. Since the area seemed a little bit agitated we decided that it was good enough and headed back, with a quick stop at McDonalds were I tried their new product minted for Venezuela: fried Yucca! Greasy…

Of course the march was beautiful, a sea of colorful Venezuelan flags ahead of, and behind, us. I took nice pictures. I also took pictures of the National Guard blocking every single street that would go in the direction of the National Assembly or Miraflores Palace. US marines in Iraq were not any better endowed. And people were furious!!! The Metropolitan Police had actually a cordon between the National Guards and us. The frightening thing was that the officers seemed to be taunting the marchers instead of being in clear defensive and non-provoking positions. Confirming my suspicions that Chavez is selecting the members of the National Guard to make them his own praetorian guards. Oh well...

Anyway, I came back satisfied but more worried than in the January marches. The mood was different this time. People seem in a somber mood, more grimly determined. Things are different now. We'll see.