Sunday, May 09, 2004

55 Colombian paramilitary arrested in Caracas!

Breaking news?

Sunday 9, May 2004

TV this morning woke us up with the arrest of 55 Colombian paramilitary in a farm in the South area of Caracas, somewhere between EL Hatillo and Baruta, the farm belonging to a dissident military from the Plaza Altamira. Supposedly they were part of a larger group hired in Colombia from reservist from the Colombian Army, and they were being trained for some major "terrorist" assault somewhere in Caracas.

Now, let me start by saying that yes, some of the dissidents from Plaza Altamira might be crazed enough to try such a dumb scheme.

Now, right off the bat, there are a few things that are not quite right.

55 paramilitary in Caracas? All with their shaved heads like fresh recruits? In military fatigues? And a few dozens of them were able to escape through the mountain? So in an urban farm setting they were hiding perhaps a hundred paramilitary Colombians since who knows when? Osama should be that skilful!

Second, the seizure was rather fast and bloodless. Well, let's accept that.

Third, and the most worrisome. Only the state TV, VTV was on premises. The news were transmitted by Globovision just because they did retransmit the VTV signal. No other independent media had information or where called on site (Union Radio, for example). However already the state radio and Aporrea had long posts on the story. Gee, suddenly they are faster and more effective than Globovision.

But the best part was the interview of one of the "pramilitary". He spoke with an incredibly thick Colombian accent, not a forced one but definitely thick enough so as not to have a doubt as from his origins. He spoke as if nothing to the single VTV journalist, with a background of Venezuelan security agents that looked rather bored considering that they had just saved their country from a terrorists attack. Ah! And the paramilitary was covered with a black headgear as in high mountain activities. He claimed that he could not reveal himself because he would jeopardize his family in Colombia. Huh!? And the Venezuelan security forces will let a terrorist speak to VTV barely an hour after being caught and allow him confidentiality? Without a lawyer, without being in a security jail, just like that in open air?

Last but not least, quickly the VTV journalist was asking such things as "Will the responsibility of the Baruta Town Hall police be investigated? How come the local police was not aware of 150 paramilitary?". Quite a lead, isn't it? And I must congratulate the VTV journalist for his amazing calm and composture considering the situation. And for all the hard questions that he was asking. I wish they would question like that some of the public officials in Venezuela.

I am not too sure how this story is going to develop but this observer is allowing himself to wonder aloud on a few weird things.

Note added in proof: The interview of the Venezuelan security division (DISIP), Rodriguez Torres, was priceless. Already he announced that all the military dissidents will be treated from now on as subversives. I am sure that some are anyway, but it was rather fast a declaration. He, of course, went on wondering how come the local Baruta police had not detected such a large group. I have a question for the DISIP head. The installations of the farm were rather small for 100+ paramilitary being trained. Considering the slope of the terrain and that it looked more like a week end retreat than a farm, where were the 100 paramilitary beign housed and trained? Does he think that other networks are not going to try to film the area A.S.A.P.?
El Rematazo
Another weird turn in Venezuela wild road to an election, any election

Saturday evening

This in "Venezuelan Spanish" means loosely "nailing it and some more". That was the code name for today's event, a run trial of the signature verification process. As a follow up from el firmazo and el reafirmazo.

I wrote yesterday that the Coordinadora Democratica, CD, needed to mobilize at least 1 million people to demonstrate that late this months it would be able to "re-validate" at least 600 000 signatures. Well, I am just listening the declarations of Enrique Mendoza, and he seems very happy.

At 8 PM, with many centers still having people lining up, the CD and Sumate announced that more than 1 million of people did show up today. Mendoza also said that he would not give many details as some of the information that they are gaining today must remain confidential to avoid giving away their strategy to chavismo. Translation: among this 1 million plus there are people that are already valid (like myself), people who need to validate in a few weeks, and people who are not allowed to validate but are complaining to be allowed to do so (and already many have had their status switched as some of the reasons presented by the pro Chavez CNE are unsustainable). Indeed it is a good idea that the CD does not give away the ratio of these numbers, one for psychological reasons against a foe who uses all sorts of psychological pressures from firing public servants to Chavez calling people "traitors the fatherland" if they signed. The CD needs to keep confidential how many people it is guessing will show up to revalidate. Even more if they are optimistic about the final numbers as this would be such a blow for chavismo and would be an excellent stepping stone for the Recall Election campaign.

It was raining in Yaracuy. I went to check out things at 1 PM just before I left for Caracas. As it was lunch hour there were not many people. Still, 4 people were ahead of me. I was dealt with in barely 1 minute since I was only there to confirm that I was not planning to withdraw my signature. The three people that were ahead of me did need to go to re-validate. The fun detail is that the young lady that attended me was one of the people filling up the forms in November. Well, she told me that the forms that she filled up were mostly approved but that her very own signature is not allowed to even go to revalidation process!!!!!!!! These stories of people who cannot repair, or are even just plain missing, abound in newspapers these days, or one can just pick them up in the street by talking to people around!

I did observe the books where people were signing today. This time an address was required so people could get the information if their status changed. As far as I can tell people had no objections giving their address!!! Talk about right of secrecy when voting! If Chavez wants it, he could have all these books seized and have the name and address of all his opponents. We are indeed a brave people!

I was the first person to verify my status and report in my own page, but I saw other pages: some had already almost half of the items filled up. Some only a few items. Considering that more than half of the people are already "valid" and most of them unlikely to show up, I thought then that an average of a third of the items filled up today would be rather good. Well, that was at 1 PM, on a rainy day in Yaracuy and still 6 hours to go. I can believe that Mr. Mendoza has reasons to cheer up, his comments match and more my own unscientific but rain-pessimistic predictions.

By the way, chavismo's "Commando Ayacucho", its own version of Sumate, had of course planned a counter media show. Supposedly they were going to go door to door today and "convince" people to withdraw their signatures. Well, tonight in Caracas I am watching the state TV, VTV, showing a documentary on the "media manipulation" instead of reporting on the results of their own maneuvers. Well, what do I know? Maybe they did knock at my door once I had left for Caracas?

Saturday, May 08, 2004

The "Megafraude" in Venezuela

Last December Chavez was bellowing that the opposition had committed a massive fraud in collecting signatures. Apparently all sorts of unspecified electoral crimes were being committed. We are still waiting of course for these crimes to be exposed. Besides a handful of suspect signature collection forms, nothing, no hard evidence, not a legal procedure, even less of an inculpation of any sort for fraud. Words and more words, hot air and more hot air as usual from the Chavez camp, the latest one being that George Bush is responsible for ALL the ills of Chavez.


Well, Mr. Bush must be really powerful, more so than Superman, more so than in Iraq. Today, after the CNE rejected/put under observation over a million signatures, people are going in large amounts to the Sumate booths set up where they signed last November/December, to inquire about the status of their signature (see previous post for details). The throngs of people that are lining up for a few minutes are those people that the pro Chavez Electoral Board would have us think that they did not exist, that their signatures were "cloned" in some mysterious "laboratorio de guerra sucia" (dirty war laboratory).

It is still a little bit too early to evaluate the success of the day. In places it is raining, like San Felipe, which has stopped me from going to check out. Many people are going even if their signatures have been declared "valid" so we cannot yet evaluate how many of the "invalid" are showing up to confirm their status. But already it seems that chavismo will not have much to cheer about tonight. Even if only a million people show up, on a rainy shopping Saturday, on an unofficial verification event, it would be a very strong message sent.

There is only one "megafraud" in Venezuela, the Chavez administration.
The repair process for the Signatures of the Recall Election in Venezuela
A few questions for the Coordinadora Democratica and Sumate

Saturday 8, May 2004

In a few hours the opposition umbrella organization is going to hold a rather memorable day: a test run for the repair process scheduled late this month. The stakes are high and from the success of Saturday's demonstration might come the final result as to whether the CD will go to repairs. Or try adventure, albeit justifiably.

The purpose of Saturday's exercise is for people who signed to 1) re-confirm their status and will if their signatures are "valid" (this blogger own case); 2) confirm the will to go to repair one's firm if it has been put under "observation"; 3) complain if one's signatures is not allowed to go to repair and 4) (perhaps) for those who signed but do not appear anywhere, to at least lodge a complaint. To understand this better it would be a good idea I think to ask some of the important questions that are running within Venezuela, creating great anguish in both sides incidentally.

Indeed, there are many serious questions that the CD must answer to demonstrate to the followers of the opposition that it is worthwhile to keep going on, that one day we will indeed get the option to repudiate Chavez legally. One wonders looking at the way that the Electoral Board, CNE, has been acting lately, or the rhetoric of Chavez (again today in an unspeakable cadena from a school pack with children while he uttered a most vile and violent discourse totally inappropriate for small children).

What about the people that signed and do not show up in any list? This is becoming everyday a bigger and bigger issue and one that currently CD or Sumate (the organization that does the CD electoral work) are dodging! Effectively many people are complaining that their names do not appear in any list, CNE or Sumate. Even tonight, in Globovision's "Alo Ciudadano" to my great surprise I saw two phone calls that made it through of people that do not appear in any list.

And this was no fluke as I personally know three people in such situation.

One is a dramatic case. It is the relative of mine who was sick in December and for whom I took the pain to find and transport an "itinerant" signature collector with the chavista witness, in my car. The form was filled by the collector, approved by the witness, and thumb printed and signed by my relative. Well, when my relative introduces her ID number in all the databases available she comes out as not having signed anywhere. Now this is grave because not only she is a registered voter but she voted in all recent elections. What happened with her firm? Was it subtracted after she signed? Where the "itinerant" collectors working for the chavista side? Does Sumate really controls the process? What can my relative do? Looking at the platitudes that the Sumate representative was saying tonight on such cases ("well, you should go anyway tomorrow and bring coffee for the other guys") I am allowed to express some doubt, to wonder if these people really understand what is going on.

What about the people that signed to recall Chavez and now under pressure are "having second thoughts"? Indeed, the real CNE president, Rodriguez, has been claiming that people that decided that they were sorry could just withdraw their signatures by showing up. This is a shameful move from the chavista controlled CNE. First, people that "are who are having second thoughts" and would like now to stamp their signatures" cannot do so!!!! Rodriguez thesis seems to work one way but not the other one. Where is thy fairness Rodriguez, as lamely you declare to the press that you are tired to discuss rules? Why did you not do your job right?

But this goes further. According to the CNE rules of last fall, before all sorts of modifications were made after the signatures were collected, to withdraw your signature you had to prove that someone else had signed for you. In other words you had to come forward and make a legal statement that could be used to pursue the person that signed for you in courts. Now you just go and say "I am sorry". How can we protect the public servants who are pressured EVERYWHERE to withdraw their signatures? This is no joke, as the cases now amount in the thousands, and more if you add up relatives of public servants. Thus it is easy to imagine the even larger numbers of the unreported cases as the judicial system collapses.

What are the conditions and protections that the citizens will have during the actual repair process? From the above question it is clear that safety and trust are everyday more an issue. For example, how do I know that if I stay home someone else is not going to go with a fake ID to remove my signature? Reports of fake ID being issued have become so strong that the CD has asked for an international auditory of the Venezuelan ID system. This is no idle complaint as the US has pointed out that it is very easy for terrorists or just criminals to acquire a real Venezuelan passport! This is why incredibly I have to go tomorrow to write down somewhere that I am not "having second thoughts" and that I meant what I did!

At least one thing has been gained, Jimmy Carter himself and Gaviria will be in Venezuela during the repair process which might ensure that no open violence occurs these days. One would expect more from them, but one must understand that they do get only one chance to declare governmental fraud. They must be absolutely sure that there is no other option but to declare Chavez an election fraud. Still, the insecurity on one's good name is quite an issue that must be addressed unambiguously at some point, the sooner the better.

What guarantees do we have that the repair process will be the last hurdle? Of course we are all aware that chavismo will try its outmost to find a way to rob the opposition from its victory. Now that they have admitted that 15% did signed, that their "megafraud" campaign was only hot air, they are cornered, and thus desperate and ready for anything. Beyond this how do we know that the CD has a Plan B? Does the CD understand that having a Plan B is a motivating factor for people to get again through one major ordeal?

One very troubling thing on this subject is the STILL discordant data tot he the point that the CD has asked to proof the repair books before the repair day. Immediately the chavismo representative to the CNE, the ineffable representative Lara has refused, raising all sorts of suspicions. Why not let the opposition check out the material before the new journey?


There are more questions but these will do for the time being. Regardless tomorrow will find me early where I signed late November. I will sign anything to prove that I mean it. I will ask how I can make sure that my signature is not stolen. I will do all what one must do when one knows he is dealing with crooks.

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PS: for once I did not deliberately placed links in this post. There would simply be too many of them, and most of the assertions I wrote are today public knowledge from any one who watches TV or reads the Venezuelan papers. When even major political figures are denied the possibility to repair their signatures (amazingly from both sides) you know that there is something rotten in Venezuela.

Friday, May 07, 2004

The John Kerry Hugo Chavez sparing on Venezuela
And boy, did the news hurt!!!

As expected the chavista apologists quickly pounced on the Kerry declarations. Judging for their reactions on TV tonight, or in Internet, it hurt. It hurt bad.

On the site venezuelanalysis.com you can find an article from Eve Golinger dated from today. Note that Ms. Golinger is doing her job. She writes for several "alternative" sites/pages. In one of her articles she said that she lives in Brooklyn NY, if memory serves me well. Thus one can assume that she is well connected in the US left (NY as a hotbed) and that she knows how to refute anything from real news to a pamphlet.

But somebody should have advised her. Her article today made a major mistake. She added to her article a large picture of Chavez with a young girl, supposedly to demonstrate the fatherly aspect, his bonhomie, implying that he is not a bloody tyrant. Well, Ms. Golinger, all tyrants through history have been very careful to be continuously photographed with children. From Hitler to Castro. Going through our own Perez Jimenez. The effect is wasted, I am afraid. Not to mention downright scary for those of us that DO KNOW our world history.

Below I did take a PrintScreen of the window of Ms. Golinger article. You can see by the way that all the adequate "revolutionary links" form Aporrea to Venpres are on the left side, as lined up by Venezueanalysis.com. A sure indication of an independent and objective site of course, the perfect vehicle to debunk the biased and false appreciations in Kerry declarations.

Thursday, May 06, 2004

Cute news that Chavez does not need
Thursday 6, May 2004

Sometimes one gets a smile reading the newspapers. Even though this is on all Venezuelan blogs today, it is too pleasant not to chime in.

The Chavez organization was rather incensed when the web site of Senator Kerry wrote that his campaign was not looking very favorably at Venezuela under Chavez. Some chavistas went as far as saying that it was a hack job and that Kerry did not know what was going on in his site. Well, now they know. Unambiguously John Kerry told Univision that he thinks that Chavez is on his way to establish a dictatorship.

"Chavez is fast on the road of becoming exactly that. He is breaking the rules of democracy. I think it is very important for him to allow that referendum to take place and for this administration and others to put more visibility on what is happening so we can hold him accountable to international standards of behavior. Democracy is at risk."

I suppose that the lobbying folks recently hired by Chavez to improve his image will have to charge more now that they must work both sides....

But those were not the only news. Chavez ambassador to the OAS made a big show a few weeks ago as to the money given by the US to some Venezuelan NGO. Even though the amounts from the National Endowment for Democracy were rather ridiculous to achieve the evil aims that chavistas claim they were for. Well, Citgo, the Venezuelan Oil Concern PDVSA subsidiary in the US has been giving lots of money to both Republican and Democratic campaigns. Oh well, I am sure that chavismo will come up with an excellent explanaition. I can hardly wait.

Venezuela, where baseness of spirit resides
The "Vile Moment of the Day Award" goes to President Chavez

While the body of Angel Ciro Pedreanez lays in state for burial tomorrow in Santa Barbara del Zulia (South of the state), Chavez gave yet a new cadena.

Right around 7:30 PM, the medal ceremony that the state TV, VTV, was transmitting became a National forced broadcast, a cadena, on every single TV and radio station, when Chavez started his lengthy speech.

In about an hour we got a inkling of what is to come.

The ceremony was to pin medals on the National Guards that had been injured during the events of February March. That is, the people that followed orders to repress people, some of them probably injuring themselves by the excesses of tear gas bombs that they threw at the protesters, received a medal for doing their job (?) as it they were some war heroes. Every young soldier was called, the injury duly described, sometimes even morbidly, while he received his medal from the hands of the Great Leader himself. All were in military fatigues, as they seem to be all the time since February, one supposes to make believe that we are in a real war. A battalion was duly armored like beetles form Mars in the background.

Then Chavez spoke.

He criticized the media, in particular Venevision, for using the death of the soldier for political purposes. He said that the last declarations of the dead soldiers "might be" fake, indicating to the subservient judicial system what is his expected outcome for the investigation. He claimed that all was fine within the Army. He announced that the Army was in unison with the revolution and that it would fight the return of the old political factors. He congratulated them for their work during the February and March unrest. And he announced an increase in the military expenditures. The real message was very clear: the army is with me, you are with me, and get ready for more action, we are going to bust these guys; stay with me and you will do good; stay with me and you will be able to do whatever you want to do, I'll protect you.

Actually I think that I will grant Chavez the Award for Vile Moment of the Week, I doubt that anyone will match this performance by Sunday.

Now I have a very simple question. Could that ceremony could have been postponed by a couple of days? Naively I thought about that for a very few minutes. And then the answer was no. Actually the ceremony might have even be advanced for today! The Public Relation disaster is so bad that Chavez must attack mercilessly. He has to be his outmost rude, insensitive, cynic, vulgar, denigrating, liar if he wants to create some media shock to distract his followers from the fate of the burnt soldiers. He has to work overtime to avoid the armed forces from wondering about what is going on. He has to preach to all of them endlessly for the next few days to convince them again that he is their benevolent father. He has to bribe them all over again with gifts for the troop, and grafts for the higher up, though this of course will be done discretely. For all his talk of people-soldier revolutionary alliance, he has to find a way to convince them to close themselves from the civilian sector altogether. It will not enough now to forbid, inside military quarters, broadcasting anything else but VTV; now he has to separate the armed forces from the country, to make them feel superior to civilians. On the way to a real dictatorship from the Army and the Army only.

To conclude I have another question, a not so simple question perhaps. How low is the Army willing to go?

Followers