There are moments when public servants lose their calm and composure and suddenly you know what they are all about, what they are really up to. Such a unique moment came today to Jorge Rodriguez, the real president of the Venezuelan Electoral Board, CNE. It would be risible if the stakes were not so high.
From last Sunday election, when the CNE announced "unofficial" results, by itself quite a insecure statement for such an organization, we are dragging some questioned results. One is Carabobo state. It is not the point to enter into the technicalities of the result at this time, but suffice to say that the problems found there justified an intervention of the Caracas CNE inside the local CNE branch, in order to take to Caracas all the electoral material to finish the counting there.
The sensible claim of Carabobo governor is that it does not make sense that his political organization would made a clean sweep of all the assemblymen circuits while losing himself the election with a significantly lower percentage margin. In Venezuelan electoral tradition this has never happened to this amazing extent. Actually, even second finishers in Venezuelan elections tend to have significantly higher voting than their political party, the explanation residing in the fact that many small parties rally behind a main candidate for the top office while running on their own for minor offices.
Now this is something that can be solved quite easily. We select at random, say, a 20 % of the boxes and count the ballots one by one. Most states have already been settled and results accepted. So one cannot even claim that counting Carabobo votes would set a "dangerous precedent".
It turns out that when Salas Feo went to Caracas today to see how things were going he found out that the CNE was just recounting the summary tallies that he had questioned, making the whole exercise totally useless, and the transfer to Caracas of the voting documents pure theatrics. He left the reunion and complained that he had been lied to in the deal on Tuesday morning. He withdrew the witness that he had sent to accompany the tally and went to court.
Now, maybe the governor has been ill informed, maybe he is totally mistaken, but what followed was totally unacceptable. Within a few minutes Carrasquero and Rodriguez went to out to make their own declarations, in an absolutely inappropriate manner.
Carrasquero: "what Salas Feo has informed is a whole bunch of lies, a bulk of incorrect terminology" and he went on defending the impartiality of the CNE which to his understanding has been demonstrated by the recent proclamation of the winners from the opposition. Making abstraction of the fact that performing one's duty is no sign of impartiality, only what is expected from him, I doubt very much that a successful governor, going for his third term, does not manage electoral technology and lingo. Carrasquero was a modest lawyer until one year ago he was pulled out of nowhere to preside the CNE. I am sure that Salas Feo would have made a better job than this third rate lawyer.
But it was not going to stop there. Rodriguez proceeded then to add insult to injury. Salas Feo is known affectionately among his followers as "El Pollo", the chicken, because he is the son of the previous governor Salas Romer, and for his youth, which has not stopped him to acquire the respect of his people for his own merits and survive the chavista onslaught brilliantly. Well, Rodriguez in what is an unacceptable attitude said: "el señor Pollo told us that he had understood that all boxes were going to be opened, a thing that was never said and that cannot be done because it goes against the norms in the tallying process".
In other words Rodriguez used deliberately the nickname of Salas Feo with mockery and a sneer to diminish him, a Governor that represents the third state in the country and who got, even by his alleged defeat number, nearly 50% of the trust of his people. This is simply unacceptable from a public servant who has been merely appointed transiently against the 4th highest elected public servant of the country. And amen of implying that he was the one making the rules and that the boxes were not to be open, ever, August 15 style. So why the boxes?
I am not too sure how I could best express the impression that I got from the whole disgusting show. It was obviously the mad shrink expressing all his ill acquired power, all his abuse of authority, lowering himself to levels that would made him lose his license if he ever were to talk like that to or of a patient. Perhaps that is why he left practice to become an abusive politician, empowered by the great leader and not by any personal merit.
What is sure is that my initial impression of the October 31 election as having been reasonably honest is gone. I thought that the voting act by itself might have been reasonably fair and the count reasonably adequate, though the organization and the campaign have been deeply fraudulent by so many abuses already reported in these pages. But now, seeing the almost mad man look of Rodriguez, and the incommensurable pettiness of Carrasquero I am absolutely convinced that significant fraud has been committed on October 31. As in August, the CNE is doing its best to hide something, but it will be discovered anyway.
I went to vote because I cannot help it, I must vote even if I know that there is a problem with my vote. It is in my genes. And I also thought that by voting the mask would be taken off, as they would be forced to cheat once again. Well, for a couple of days I was fooled, but now I know that I did the right thing Sunday because now I can claim that my vote was stolen in Yaracuy where a similar pattern as in Carabobo has happened. If the CNE refuses to take the adequate steps, then there is no point ever again to go to vote. This Carabobo incident, today ill declarations of possessed little men unable to rise above their condition, have made all worth it. Anyone that still believes after today that there are honest elections in Venezuela is delusional.
And if you persist and think that the Zulia victory of Rosales was a mark of democracy in Chavez, you are very mistaken. Rosales is in the famous Carmona list. As a formidable electoral opponent probably Chavez deiced to let him win and get him later through the courts. That way he will be forced to resign, new elections held and a better chavista candidate sworn in. Tiny Nueva Esparta will be dealt with when it stops serving its purpose as a democracy poster state in Venezuela.
Thus is the logic of non-democratic regimes, any dissidence becomes opprobrious to them.
Sooner or later.
Thursday, November 04, 2004
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
It is about over in Yaracuy
Visiting sub-rector Lucena has announced that with 93% of ballots counted the trend was "irreversible" and that she expected Gimenez to be proclaimed the new governor.
This is very distressing to me as Gimenez has been a failure as a mayor and cannot possibly be a good governor. Unless of course you are on his side and he can find you a stipend to live off public monies. For Yaracuy people this is actually worse than seeing Diosdado Cabello ruling over Miranda. If there is a case of a Chavez-made governor, it is Gimenez. Without direct help from Chavez, Gimenez would have racked at best a 35%. It is also unfair for Lapi who is punished in spite of a reasonable administration recognized by all. But he could not compete with the monies spent through the misiones. Whether he liked them or not he did not have the means to compete with such programs as Yaracuy is a rather poor state with a low tax base. And Lapi had a considerable social conscience and built many social programs!
At least my mayor has been re-elected so I will have some protection from Gimenez excesses which are sure to come.
On other news. After much an anguishing moment Zulia's Rosales was finally proclaimed governor elect with 54 %. A victory good enough, bit maybe not good enough to give him the opposition leadership on a silver platter.
Carlos Ocariz recognized the victory of Rangel. The "vice" son barely managed to squeak back in. Ocariz and Primero Justicia are victims of abstention and division since two years ago that Caracas district was considered not in the reach of the opposition. But the prima donna attitude of Un Solo Pueblo leader William Ojeda when polls did not go his way, the influence of Caracas journalists pro-abstention have been enough to shave the 2-3 % points that doomed Ocariz. Now, Sucre is stuck with four more years of a totally inefficient mayor, not even liked by his base. But Chavez dixit and that was that. What is most amazing is that Ocariz managed to win some of the popular areas that supposedly are die-hard Chavez supporters, breaking the myth of monolithic popular support. AS I pointed out in late August, people and Caracas would prefer a job to a Mision Whatever, and Chavez is not delivering there, at all. But I am sure that fellow travelers and "sandalistas" will not notice this.... I will revisit this result when the CNE page is not too slow, right now it is killing my broadband.
Thus Primero Justicia fails to win its third town hall in Caracas. But chavismo is shaken nevertheless, and Primero Justicia is alone with chavismo in Caracas. No need anymore to seek the favor of mediocrities from AD, or people like Peña.
This is very distressing to me as Gimenez has been a failure as a mayor and cannot possibly be a good governor. Unless of course you are on his side and he can find you a stipend to live off public monies. For Yaracuy people this is actually worse than seeing Diosdado Cabello ruling over Miranda. If there is a case of a Chavez-made governor, it is Gimenez. Without direct help from Chavez, Gimenez would have racked at best a 35%. It is also unfair for Lapi who is punished in spite of a reasonable administration recognized by all. But he could not compete with the monies spent through the misiones. Whether he liked them or not he did not have the means to compete with such programs as Yaracuy is a rather poor state with a low tax base. And Lapi had a considerable social conscience and built many social programs!
At least my mayor has been re-elected so I will have some protection from Gimenez excesses which are sure to come.
On other news. After much an anguishing moment Zulia's Rosales was finally proclaimed governor elect with 54 %. A victory good enough, bit maybe not good enough to give him the opposition leadership on a silver platter.
Carlos Ocariz recognized the victory of Rangel. The "vice" son barely managed to squeak back in. Ocariz and Primero Justicia are victims of abstention and division since two years ago that Caracas district was considered not in the reach of the opposition. But the prima donna attitude of Un Solo Pueblo leader William Ojeda when polls did not go his way, the influence of Caracas journalists pro-abstention have been enough to shave the 2-3 % points that doomed Ocariz. Now, Sucre is stuck with four more years of a totally inefficient mayor, not even liked by his base. But Chavez dixit and that was that. What is most amazing is that Ocariz managed to win some of the popular areas that supposedly are die-hard Chavez supporters, breaking the myth of monolithic popular support. AS I pointed out in late August, people and Caracas would prefer a job to a Mision Whatever, and Chavez is not delivering there, at all. But I am sure that fellow travelers and "sandalistas" will not notice this.... I will revisit this result when the CNE page is not too slow, right now it is killing my broadband.
Thus Primero Justicia fails to win its third town hall in Caracas. But chavismo is shaken nevertheless, and Primero Justicia is alone with chavismo in Caracas. No need anymore to seek the favor of mediocrities from AD, or people like Peña.
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Trouble in Yaracuy
Pictures at the end added later
Posturing is always what most politicians, and people associated with them, like very much to do. So In Yaracuy, we had today a pre-taste of what it is to live under a military dictatorship.
It is no secret for readers of this blog that I am anti-military and that I personally think that the military in Venezuela is already acting as if they were in charge of everything, dictatorship style. Well, they are in charge as a matter of fact, as Chavez always sends them on mission for this or that, while our borders have become a broad sieve. I have personally sensed it in May 2003 and felt it in the flesh in September 2003. Any delusion that I might have had is long, long gone.
For some obscure reason some military commander decided to take over the state offices building in San Felipe. Creating quite a commotion. When I found out about it I decided to try to go but when I went around 1:30 PM, it was just to see the army finally lifting the siege and packing 4 truckload of conscripts... Still, they left a couple of trucks behind with perhaps a couple dozens of military in full battle gear.
Now, whether Lapi lost the election is irrelevant: he is still governor for a few more days to finish his constitutional term. Even if he says that he will not surrender his office, that he is piling up water and salt crackers in his desk drawers, that he had a chemical toilet set up and an electric generator, etc, etc... The thugs in charge of the army have to wait until his term expires to storm the state building.
Pleaaaaaaase!
I was thus too late for a good picture though I took some that I will see later if they are worth posting.
I did go around to check other locations. The governor mansion was fine, not even a police officer outside... But the electoral delegation was surrounded. Or more exactly, the street at both ends was barred by two small armored vehicle and an assortment of battle geared soldiers. This did not stop the Gimenez people to mass at one end, preparing some rally, presumably to celebrate Gimenez victory once the pro Chavez CNE sub-rector Tibisay Lucena comes to town today to supervise the local counts. Interestingly this brings to mind an observation that I have made long ago: not only Zamora has not been replaced, but the sub-rectors affiliated with the opposition have not found an occupation within the CNE, while several of the pro-Chavez sub-rectors go around in all sorts of activities. This by itself should tell external observers volumes on the "impartiality" of the CNE, where all is made by chavistas with the single voice, now just ridicule, of Sobella Mejias.
But that is OK. I was ready for it, I have been convinced for a while that we are already in a dictatorship, although of the "legal" and "soft" type, as the Ecuadorian used to call their last one, "dictablanda" instead of dictadura.
More later.
--------
Here is the later
The first picture (2PM) is the Plaza Bolivar (a nice one by the way) with the state capitol and behind the state office building. These were the ones earlier on for some obscure reason were seized. The people in front (that were still hanging out in larger numbers at 5 PM) are now Lapi supporters. The Gimenez supporters left for the Yaracuy delegation of the CNE in the following picture.
This picture was at 2 PM one block down from the CNE. At 5 PM they had grown to perhaps 1-2 thousand (I could not see the side streets and I decided that I better not walk around with a camera in hand, considering that in August I was not already very welcomed at a much more relaxed chavista event). People seem to come mostly from the Veroes and Marin areas, known to be a chavista stronghold and the ones with the highest amount of Cuban doctors. Not that it really means much for the matter at hand, but this is an informative blog :-) . What is more relevant is that the people there come from lower classes (the ring leaders were all in nice cars and well dressed, no pictures taken for obvious reasons) who are gathering in the ritzier neighborhood of Yaracuy. I can imagine the stress in some of the nice houses... And I am pleased to see that no matter what the party is in Venezuela, the ring leaders have nice clothes and stay in the back, leaving the crowds under the direction of some handymen controlled through cel phone.
This last picture is a road block by the Army, with tank and all. Now, this makes no sense at all. There are at least 10 ways to get inside San Felipe and they chose this entrance for their road block just because there is a gas station (I did put some gas there so I had an excuse for a discreet picture). I can understand that as a serious military operation they want to secure one gas station, but why the need of a road block to check cars? To kill boredom? And what does Lapi have to require a tank? Geez....
Posturing is always what most politicians, and people associated with them, like very much to do. So In Yaracuy, we had today a pre-taste of what it is to live under a military dictatorship.
It is no secret for readers of this blog that I am anti-military and that I personally think that the military in Venezuela is already acting as if they were in charge of everything, dictatorship style. Well, they are in charge as a matter of fact, as Chavez always sends them on mission for this or that, while our borders have become a broad sieve. I have personally sensed it in May 2003 and felt it in the flesh in September 2003. Any delusion that I might have had is long, long gone.
For some obscure reason some military commander decided to take over the state offices building in San Felipe. Creating quite a commotion. When I found out about it I decided to try to go but when I went around 1:30 PM, it was just to see the army finally lifting the siege and packing 4 truckload of conscripts... Still, they left a couple of trucks behind with perhaps a couple dozens of military in full battle gear.
Now, whether Lapi lost the election is irrelevant: he is still governor for a few more days to finish his constitutional term. Even if he says that he will not surrender his office, that he is piling up water and salt crackers in his desk drawers, that he had a chemical toilet set up and an electric generator, etc, etc... The thugs in charge of the army have to wait until his term expires to storm the state building.
Pleaaaaaaase!
I was thus too late for a good picture though I took some that I will see later if they are worth posting.
I did go around to check other locations. The governor mansion was fine, not even a police officer outside... But the electoral delegation was surrounded. Or more exactly, the street at both ends was barred by two small armored vehicle and an assortment of battle geared soldiers. This did not stop the Gimenez people to mass at one end, preparing some rally, presumably to celebrate Gimenez victory once the pro Chavez CNE sub-rector Tibisay Lucena comes to town today to supervise the local counts. Interestingly this brings to mind an observation that I have made long ago: not only Zamora has not been replaced, but the sub-rectors affiliated with the opposition have not found an occupation within the CNE, while several of the pro-Chavez sub-rectors go around in all sorts of activities. This by itself should tell external observers volumes on the "impartiality" of the CNE, where all is made by chavistas with the single voice, now just ridicule, of Sobella Mejias.
But that is OK. I was ready for it, I have been convinced for a while that we are already in a dictatorship, although of the "legal" and "soft" type, as the Ecuadorian used to call their last one, "dictablanda" instead of dictadura.
More later.
--------
Here is the later
The first picture (2PM) is the Plaza Bolivar (a nice one by the way) with the state capitol and behind the state office building. These were the ones earlier on for some obscure reason were seized. The people in front (that were still hanging out in larger numbers at 5 PM) are now Lapi supporters. The Gimenez supporters left for the Yaracuy delegation of the CNE in the following picture.
This picture was at 2 PM one block down from the CNE. At 5 PM they had grown to perhaps 1-2 thousand (I could not see the side streets and I decided that I better not walk around with a camera in hand, considering that in August I was not already very welcomed at a much more relaxed chavista event). People seem to come mostly from the Veroes and Marin areas, known to be a chavista stronghold and the ones with the highest amount of Cuban doctors. Not that it really means much for the matter at hand, but this is an informative blog :-) . What is more relevant is that the people there come from lower classes (the ring leaders were all in nice cars and well dressed, no pictures taken for obvious reasons) who are gathering in the ritzier neighborhood of Yaracuy. I can imagine the stress in some of the nice houses... And I am pleased to see that no matter what the party is in Venezuela, the ring leaders have nice clothes and stay in the back, leaving the crowds under the direction of some handymen controlled through cel phone.
This last picture is a road block by the Army, with tank and all. Now, this makes no sense at all. There are at least 10 ways to get inside San Felipe and they chose this entrance for their road block just because there is a gas station (I did put some gas there so I had an excuse for a discreet picture). I can understand that as a serious military operation they want to secure one gas station, but why the need of a road block to check cars? To kill boredom? And what does Lapi have to require a tank? Geez....
Diosdado Cabello , the new Miranda governor
Diosdado has just been proclaimed governor and there is unrest in Los Teques, Miranda's capital.
This victory, if indeed real, is due mostly to abstention in Caracas. Abstentionist can come with all sorts of reasons or excuses, but the thin victory margin is due to the abstention. Period.
Now they are stuck with Diosdado. I am waiting to see who is going to go to marches in Caracas now. Because this is the state that CHAVEZ WANTED THE MOST. Chavez does not want people in the street protesting his beloved rule. All possible tricks will be done to allow this result to favor Chavez, be it the REP, the money, the whatever. Period.
The web page of globovision where I got that link showed the following set up at the time.
Yep, I wonder how many people will click to see how to get a US visa, how to get a job there! (for the record, this blogger did not click on it :-)
But that is OK, I am sure that Chavez will not mind having all of these highly skilled managers find better shores. I am sure he has enough Cubans and "sandalistas" listed up.
Woe is us!
This victory, if indeed real, is due mostly to abstention in Caracas. Abstentionist can come with all sorts of reasons or excuses, but the thin victory margin is due to the abstention. Period.
Now they are stuck with Diosdado. I am waiting to see who is going to go to marches in Caracas now. Because this is the state that CHAVEZ WANTED THE MOST. Chavez does not want people in the street protesting his beloved rule. All possible tricks will be done to allow this result to favor Chavez, be it the REP, the money, the whatever. Period.
The web page of globovision where I got that link showed the following set up at the time.
Yep, I wonder how many people will click to see how to get a US visa, how to get a job there! (for the record, this blogger did not click on it :-)
But that is OK, I am sure that Chavez will not mind having all of these highly skilled managers find better shores. I am sure he has enough Cubans and "sandalistas" listed up.
Woe is us!
The chavista massive abstention
I was forgetting a most important detail! One on occasion does not see the forest for the tree....
If asbtention is recognized at 55 % of the electorate, then one is allowed to wonder about what happened to the "massive" pro Chavez vote of August 15 2004. Note, the abstention in 2000 was 44%
Chavistas did not like the candidates imposed by the beloved leader?
They followed the appeals to abstain of the opposition?
They knew that the CNE would vote for them?
They do not exist except as fraudulent voters on August 15?
Any answer to any of these questions is crucial but one thing is certain: the chavista government will never seek these answers............
If asbtention is recognized at 55 % of the electorate, then one is allowed to wonder about what happened to the "massive" pro Chavez vote of August 15 2004. Note, the abstention in 2000 was 44%
Chavistas did not like the candidates imposed by the beloved leader?
They followed the appeals to abstain of the opposition?
They knew that the CNE would vote for them?
They do not exist except as fraudulent voters on August 15?
Any answer to any of these questions is crucial but one thing is certain: the chavista government will never seek these answers............
Results in Venezuela start to clear up, some
This is a very preliminary analysis of the results, and I might have to correct myself. But since in this land of magical realism the very same CNE allows itself to publish "unofficial" results, this blogger can certainly be forgiven for taking example. After all, if the higher authority is into unofficial, one can wonder where the heck is official.
The first striking conclusion as I am starting to have access to real results, and as sitting governors start conceding defeat is that the disunion of the opposition and its abstention are the main factors by far in their defeat. True, Chavez lavished money and his own persona in local contests but it seems to me that these gifts from El Supremo enhanced the victory of his supporters more than actually creating it. I can see that in Lara and in Merida in particular.
Any Chavez apparition probably was worth 5% more in the results, at least for the week that followed his apparition but in Merida and Lara that was not the case as he did not visit these states. These Chavez visits probably had more of an effect in Yaracuy and Tachira. But in Merida it is difficult to understand how a conservative state has so completely fallen into the chavista camp. No, the explanation there is to be found at the level of local divisions between adecos and others which sunk both to unexpected depths. Having been taken for granted for so long, Merida denizens found it refreshing to be courted by chavismo.
The results that the CNE page is emitting are rather surprising. I will take Yaracuy, just as I seeing them this morning, a few minutes ago.
Gimenez..........76 822....49,6%
Lapi.............74 934....48,4%
Now let's look at the result for the state assembly vote
Gimenez coalition.....45 517.....41,2%
Lapi coalition........60 715.....54,9%
Any "connoisseur" of Venezuelan elections knows full well that this is impossible. It would be the first case where a major candidate has less votes, percentage wise, than his/her party. That can happen for minor candidates where vote crossing is rather frequent, but as far as I know I have never seen it in major candidates. What is even stranger is that it seems to be also the case in Carabobo! As Salas Feo said there, it is like putting the cart in front of the oxen.
This needs following and relates quite well to what I reported earlier on, selective reporting of results for political interests.
On other news. Monagas and Bolivar governors have conceded. That was unfortunately predictable as I had ranked these two states as vulnerable, in particular Bolivar. They were reasonably good governor, but Monagas's Call was an adeco old style and their time is past. Bolivar's Rojas Suarez was an ex chavista in a red state without his own party and just an heterogeneous opposition coalition to support him. Not to mention that he was questioned (I reported long ago the disgust of Milagros Socorro on such a selection, which I shared, though pragmatically he was the only choice there). So his defeat is not surprising and his good work, such as it might be, was not enough in front of the gigantic amounts of money that Chavez spent there.
AD is looking grim even if bravely Ramos Allup stated that AD was still the major party of the opposition (whatever that means) and that it would go solo to rewrite its programs to attract back the voters (good luck!). But the reality that is already seen is that AD is history and that with only the Nueva Esparta state, it has little to brag about. Rosales in Zulia, even as an ex Adeco, has managed to free himself of that label and he needs AD much less than this one needs Rosales. Well, at least I have the consolation to see AD lose big.
Rosales after another scare last night seems finally on his way to be confirmed once and for all. Last night the chavista candidate came out again, Carabobo style, to claim a close race. Perhaps he thought that the CNE would manage to "find" votes. But now it seems that Rosales will get a 54% to the votes. Which is less than what I thought he would get (at least 60%), but then Chavez pushed hard and spent heavy there, trying to erase the stink of the strike in Zulia and rewrite history by claiming that the people of Zulia were with him during the strike and that only "a few" were trying to sabotage the oil industry. Well, sorry, but Zulia IS NOT with Chavez. Well, at least at 8 AM this morning.
On the anecdotal side, the PPT, a minor Chavez ally, managed to pick 31 town halls. Its leader has said that it will require a sworn statement of the elected officials so as to prove that they will not get rich during their tenure. One does not whether to cry or to laugh! Have they no shame? Does he think that ANYONE will believe that?
And to finish with a flourish. Foreign minister Jesus Perez seems very pleased by the monochromatic Venezuelan result. Apparently he is the type of people that like "single teams", stalinistically one would presume. It probably comes from his young student days as a communist agitator in France. At any rate, it would be easier for him, or so he thinks, to present Venezuela as a shiny example of the people united behind its beloved leader and the glorious revolution. Maybe some one should murmur in his left ear that foreign ministers of Eastern Europe, or Cuba and North Korea, were never the most popular or the most influent. Perhaps his good friends at the French embassy could coach him some before he makes "un derrière" of himself.
The first striking conclusion as I am starting to have access to real results, and as sitting governors start conceding defeat is that the disunion of the opposition and its abstention are the main factors by far in their defeat. True, Chavez lavished money and his own persona in local contests but it seems to me that these gifts from El Supremo enhanced the victory of his supporters more than actually creating it. I can see that in Lara and in Merida in particular.
Any Chavez apparition probably was worth 5% more in the results, at least for the week that followed his apparition but in Merida and Lara that was not the case as he did not visit these states. These Chavez visits probably had more of an effect in Yaracuy and Tachira. But in Merida it is difficult to understand how a conservative state has so completely fallen into the chavista camp. No, the explanation there is to be found at the level of local divisions between adecos and others which sunk both to unexpected depths. Having been taken for granted for so long, Merida denizens found it refreshing to be courted by chavismo.
The results that the CNE page is emitting are rather surprising. I will take Yaracuy, just as I seeing them this morning, a few minutes ago.
Gimenez..........76 822....49,6%
Lapi.............74 934....48,4%
Now let's look at the result for the state assembly vote
Gimenez coalition.....45 517.....41,2%
Lapi coalition........60 715.....54,9%
Any "connoisseur" of Venezuelan elections knows full well that this is impossible. It would be the first case where a major candidate has less votes, percentage wise, than his/her party. That can happen for minor candidates where vote crossing is rather frequent, but as far as I know I have never seen it in major candidates. What is even stranger is that it seems to be also the case in Carabobo! As Salas Feo said there, it is like putting the cart in front of the oxen.
This needs following and relates quite well to what I reported earlier on, selective reporting of results for political interests.
On other news. Monagas and Bolivar governors have conceded. That was unfortunately predictable as I had ranked these two states as vulnerable, in particular Bolivar. They were reasonably good governor, but Monagas's Call was an adeco old style and their time is past. Bolivar's Rojas Suarez was an ex chavista in a red state without his own party and just an heterogeneous opposition coalition to support him. Not to mention that he was questioned (I reported long ago the disgust of Milagros Socorro on such a selection, which I shared, though pragmatically he was the only choice there). So his defeat is not surprising and his good work, such as it might be, was not enough in front of the gigantic amounts of money that Chavez spent there.
AD is looking grim even if bravely Ramos Allup stated that AD was still the major party of the opposition (whatever that means) and that it would go solo to rewrite its programs to attract back the voters (good luck!). But the reality that is already seen is that AD is history and that with only the Nueva Esparta state, it has little to brag about. Rosales in Zulia, even as an ex Adeco, has managed to free himself of that label and he needs AD much less than this one needs Rosales. Well, at least I have the consolation to see AD lose big.
Rosales after another scare last night seems finally on his way to be confirmed once and for all. Last night the chavista candidate came out again, Carabobo style, to claim a close race. Perhaps he thought that the CNE would manage to "find" votes. But now it seems that Rosales will get a 54% to the votes. Which is less than what I thought he would get (at least 60%), but then Chavez pushed hard and spent heavy there, trying to erase the stink of the strike in Zulia and rewrite history by claiming that the people of Zulia were with him during the strike and that only "a few" were trying to sabotage the oil industry. Well, sorry, but Zulia IS NOT with Chavez. Well, at least at 8 AM this morning.
On the anecdotal side, the PPT, a minor Chavez ally, managed to pick 31 town halls. Its leader has said that it will require a sworn statement of the elected officials so as to prove that they will not get rich during their tenure. One does not whether to cry or to laugh! Have they no shame? Does he think that ANYONE will believe that?
And to finish with a flourish. Foreign minister Jesus Perez seems very pleased by the monochromatic Venezuelan result. Apparently he is the type of people that like "single teams", stalinistically one would presume. It probably comes from his young student days as a communist agitator in France. At any rate, it would be easier for him, or so he thinks, to present Venezuela as a shiny example of the people united behind its beloved leader and the glorious revolution. Maybe some one should murmur in his left ear that foreign ministers of Eastern Europe, or Cuba and North Korea, were never the most popular or the most influent. Perhaps his good friends at the French embassy could coach him some before he makes "un derrière" of himself.
Change of Address
I have made the switch to Gmail. It was too much of a hassle to use hotmail. Not that from now on you will write me to
danielinyaracuy @ gmail . com
the old hotmail address will still be in use for a while but I hope to phase it out completely soon.
danielinyaracuy @ gmail . com
the old hotmail address will still be in use for a while but I hope to phase it out completely soon.
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