Open letter to the Venezuelan opposition

Any election, no matter how crooked it might be, brings new elements to the political discourse. Last Sunday disastrous showing for democracy is no exception. The challenge for you, dear opposition leaders, whether you supported abstention or not, whether you dealt behind doors with chavismo or not, is to decide what is your next step according to the new hand given to you..

The good news is that it should not be very complicated for you to realize that you need to come up with a clear strategy as the dust you are biting now should tell you. So, I am willing to help you find a way out.

FIRST, THE FACTS

Let’s look at the results as per the front page of El Nacional today (as good as any other source considering how impossible it is to have a good representation of the country’s political force in view of cheating, abstention and the "morochas", all CNE sponsored).

Chavismo.....47,1%
Other........18,5%
Opposition...17,3%
Null.........17,1%

Let’s start with that extraordinary null vote, which at the very least shows a deficiency in the voting procedure, and at the worst is the mechanism used by the CNE to cheat in order to decrease the abstention numbers. Let’s also assume that it could be in part the voters expressing a “none of the above” option. That should give you pause.

Now, let’s look at chavismo figure. There is good and bad news there. The good is that it failed to pass the 50+% mark so hoped for. That bad is that it passed it as quite a few of the “others” are actually linked more or less to chavismo. But the real good news is that in spite of all the built in advantage, of abstention, chavismo does not get the 59% of August 2004. Isn’t that something!? With a real feisty campaign, there is plenty of room for you to cut into chavismo. Besides, you can hardly go lower than your present 17.3%. Or can you?

The other fact is that at way more than half of your voters, those that usually vote for you, did not bother to vote this time. And most of those already stayed home last October. In other words, managing politics the way you are managing them these days IS NOT GOING TO BRING THEM BACK to the voting stations. It should be clear for you that any “appeasement” strategy that you might have had has failed. Actually, that abstention number is bound to increase dramatically in December as people like me, considering the incredibly obvious manipulations of the CNE this time around and the wimpyness shown by you, will really wonder about the point of voting in December. Yes, I have followed you until now, but there is a new deal in town and my obligations to you have ceased, as little as they might have been.

SIDE PROGRAM, OPERATION CNE

Things have changed, dramatically. Now we are discussing saving democracy. Forget about “preservar espacios” as Sobella Mejais once said to justify her staying in the CNE as a Chinese Jar. In fact, forget about the CNE altogether. With the way the CNE is operating, there is nothing to look for in there. They must be confronted and that is all. You should all rally behind Sumate, or if too unpalatable for some of you, behind some panel that will decide for all of you whether to run in an election or not. But Sumate should be the only conduit to negotiate with the CNE, in the name of ALL of the opposition. Or do you have a better agent? What good as it done to you to forget about Tulio Alvarez and let Sumate hang high and dry for chavismo to make it target practice? You might reply that Rodriguez will never negotiate with Sumate. And who will Rodriguez negotiate with? Come on! Get a grip!

The time has run out with the CNE. Remember that you have the 350 article in the constitution and you can apply it perfectly there. Remember that real observers will come in December and remember what happened when you let observers participate in the negotiations for the Recall Election. Observers are there to observe, so give them something to observe. The best thing that could happen to you is for the EU to say that it is leaving Venezuela simply because elections cannot be run in the conditions imposed by the CNE. REMEMBER, Chavez needs a democratic caution and your blunders have been giving it! When are you going to learn? You need to demonstrate that elections are impossible and refuse to negotiate the basic points defended by Sumate. Even the Carter Center might approve of that!

Besides now we are running for a National Assembly. All that talk of local leadership that will run anyway in Municipal or Regional Elections is now bogus. The way things are in Venezuela we all know that no one is going to make it to the National Assembly if there is no political organization behind. If you agree among yourself, the candidates will have to abide by your decisions.

Besides look at how easily unhinged Rodriguez gets when slightly confronted! Keep confronting him all the time and you will see him resign sooner than expected! And by the way, DEMAND that Sobella resigns. She is all alone there, she is totally ineffective except for a token concession they grant her. Stop playing that game! Let the CNE totally fall in the hands of Chavez. It is acting as such anyway, so let the word know the truth by removing any democratic fig leaf excuse they might still have.

SECOND, THE OBJECTIVE

Now it is the hour of truth: will you rise about your petty interests? Or will you go and meet the final defeat in December, leaving the National Assembly with a more than 2/3 chavista majority, with 25% soldiers that will never question a word from Chavez and will brow beat any civilian in chavismo that dares emit a personal opinion? A 2/3 majority which will make legal all the illegal measures taken by chavismo since 2003 and thus projecting a legal image outside and dooming us for a decade to live under a military boot without even a military coup d’etat? Does Fujimori ring a bell with you? At least he did a coup d'etat! Are you going to allow the election of a 2/3 majority that will vote yet a new High Court, a new CNE, a new Poder Moral, even more subservient, if possible, than those ones that so sadly figure there? A 2/3 majority that will make it impossible to run a partially fair presidential campaign in 2006, with the aggravation that nobody will pay attention to any united front candidate knowing full well that Chavez will win no matter what?

So, which should be your objectives? Very simple, make sure that Chavez does not get that 2/3 majority. Everything else is secondary and can be discussed as of January 2006. Such discussions as a common program government, a platform to rebuild the country, a way to have Chavez lose in 2006 should be postponed: if you do not get 1/3 of parliament in December, it is all over.

Thus what we have ahead are fire and brimstone days and if you have no stomach for it I suggest that you make room for those who have it and wait for more normal days to try a come back.

There is no need to riot in the streets, we do have the necessary democratic tools to force chavismo into a few concessions, such as the 350 article. But to succeed we need to set aside personal interests, be ready to sacrifice what we need to sacrifice, and all go with one clear objective at hand. Account settlement can wait for 2006. Because what we are facing is a chavista campaign that will not hold any punch and if you are not united in some simple common objectives, then you will not be able to withstand the pressure. You must work out fast a commonality of intentions that allows you to include all opposition parties, all abstentionist main leaders. By the end of August all should be ready to go. No Coordinadora Democratica this time, no need for them: the message will be simple and able to include all, to appeal to even some dissatisfied chavista voters.

THIRD, THE MESSAGE

A few lines are enough.

No to Castro. No to financing the rest of South America. Venezuela first. No Bolivian adventure. No China deal. Be patriot!

This can appeal to some chavistas who are getting tired of seeing Chavez traveling back and forth, spreading Venezuela oil money as if it were his only. Forget about Latin American solidarity, did they think of us in 2002? 2004? Attack any travel, any initiative of Chavez, accuse him of being a thief if necessary. What do you have to lose? It is your money you are defending after all! Expose him ruthlessly in every meeting, in every interview you can, without making it personal. Just ask WHERE THE MONEY GOES AND WHO ALOWED HIM TO DO SO. You, in the National Assembly are the only way to put brakes on that piñata.

No to a National Assembly sold to the army. No to the army. No to the war with the US!

The Army has caved in to Chavez. You should use those pictures of soldiers in Cuba to question the devotion of the Army to Venezuela. There is nothing to expect from an army who has abandoned any democratic vocation it might have had in the past. Walking on eggs around them has not brought anything, has it? At least you might force some reaction inside the army and obtain that it remains impartial one election more (though I wonder how impartial it has been in the last three elections, but then again I am such an anti military person, I distrust soldiers so much…)

Offer a referendum on the army, a referendum to put back the army in the barracks. You can call for a referendum from the National Assembly. Say the it is the people who should decide what the army does, not Chavez.

Also, proclaim your friendship with the West. Say that only Europe and the US and Canada and capitalism will allow Venezuela to build a bright future. Criticize Bush, criticize Iraq, point out that Bush is gone in two years but that any war that Chavez starts will last us a life time. Enough of letting Chavez define who is a traitor and who is not! Enough of letting the army fake a war it cannot win and that will leave us ruined even if no shot is ever fired! Accuse Chavez of betrayal at every corner if needed. Or do you think your silence so far has paid of? Peace and jobs, that is your proposal and state that Chavez CANNOT BRING THAT BECAUSE HE DOES NOT WANT IT!

No to violence. No to personal power. Yes to separation of power.

Do not be afraid to attack the judicial system, the CNE, the Chavez administration. They will not help you, they will not rule in your favor. Attack, attack all the time because even if you behave nicely from here to December they will stick to you, put you in jail at the latest sometime in 2007. Actually you should even say that your objectives will be to change the judicial system, to make sure Isaias does not repeat as attorney General, that Clodosvaldo will be moved to another retirement home.

See, you do not need to attack Chavez directly, just attack all the mess he has made!

Say yes to Barrio Adentro, say yes to Mercal.

Say that these programs have convinced you but that they are poorly managed. Say that your objective is to integrate these programs with existing structures to make them work better and that you will pay Venezuelan professionals well so as to free yourself from Cuban doctors.

Say that you will pass laws to recover international trust in Venezuela, to create jobs.

Explain that Chavez support of Castro is blocking private investors, Venezuelans and foreigners and that is why there is no jobs, no housing, no real development. Say that cooperatives are fine but without international and private investment they are not enough. Say that you will offer new laws to strengthen cooperatives and allow them to seek joint ventures with foreign cooperatives and investors. That jobs, jobs and more jobs is your only economical program. Look in the eyes at chavista electors and ask them if they know anyone with a REAL job? Offer jobs to replace all the failed misiones, and use the money of the failed misiones for Mercal and Barrio Adentro. I know, it is tough to swallow but do you have anything better to offer? Do not worry, you are not going to win anyway, what you want to get is a chance to win someday and for that you need to make sure that Chavez does not get 66%!

No to barter, we want cash for our oil.

This is a no brainer. No more barter for ships, no more barter for meat, money will be only spent at home, with Venezuelans, on Venezuelans. Too bad if this puts us at risk with our trading partners. Announce that all commercial deals will be reviewed and that the head of PDVSA, a few ministers, a few ambassadors will be investigated. So they might threaten to sue you? They will do so anyway in 2006, 2007 and the following years on any other excuse. You want to save the country, and get a job along the way? Show disposition for sacrifice, for honesty, publish the tax return of all your candidates and demand to see the one of Chavez and co and to audit them. Play dirty, they will, but play democratic, what you would demand in any civilized country.

Chavez will stay until December 2006

Yes, say it, but also say that you will make sure that he rules better, that the money is spent where it should be spent. Say even that you will force him to pick better ministers!!!! Be creative! After all, cohabitation worked elsewhere, why not in Venezuela? At the very least you would gain a real CNE for 2006 if you manage to get more than a third of the National Assembly.


Voila, you do have a simple program that can reach the masses. You need not go further. And you should actually even make it briefer than what I wrote, just pick something coherent and stick to it. You have to present your self as martyrs willing to sacrifice yourself at the National Assembly if needed, and not as people just trying to look for a well paid job. Play Chavez fire and brimstone game, try to make him talk of December 2006 instead of December 2005. Make him look like a power hungry madman. Challenge him to collaborate with you!

FOURTH, THE ELECTORAL STRATEGY

You must make your “morochas”. Chavismo is going to make theirs, so have no qualms about making your morochas and screw the built in advantage of chavismo. The CNE is not going to ban morochas no matter how illegal they are and how much Teodoro protests. Keep complaining about them, keep asking them to be eliminated, but build them. They will allow two options when you get around to form the list and allow you to agree.

THE UNINOMINAL VOTE

Play the regional card. Forget those who want or thinks they deserve this or that. You will only overcome the seat distribution by playing the regional card.

For the uninominal votes let Copei rule Tachira, Rosales rule Zulia, PJ rule Caracas and Miranda, AD rule Sucre, Margarita and Monagas, PV in Carabobo even if it is a corpse etc…

Allow for the creation of a left wing. Even though the corpuscles such as Solidaridad or left parties such as the MAS are nearly obliterated, make sure they will get half a dozen seats. You will need them for the 2006 presidential race. Put one MAS in Aragua, one Solidaridad in Caracas, one Causa R in Zulia and Bolivar, one Union in Anzoategui and 2 or 3 more here and there. Forgive them for having supported Chavez, you will need a democratic left to pick up the chavista mess someday or it will fall into Chavez II and sequels are never good.

Deal with the abstentionist leaders by promising that if the CNE does not change the ways things are run, you will withdraw all candidates by election day. And then give them a few positions in the ticket. Ledezma in Caracas, Paz in Zulia and one or two more here and there. Let's see of they resign come election day. If you do not like them there will be elections to get rid of them in the future, that is, if you get at least 1/3, remember!

Don't be afraid to nominate more candidates than spots available, you will do primaries through September if needed and have the losers resign. But one thing: whoever wants your general support, your union label must pledge to withdraw after an unfavorable primary. Do not worry, electors will not be fooled, they have demonstrated Sunday that they will stay home and not vote for a "traitor" in case they decide to break their pledge.

THE VOTE LIST

This is where the parties can run. Make it a primary of sorts and do not be afraid to give AD some preferences in the provinces: they still have some appeal there even if you cannot believe it. Or do you think that PJ is ready to take over Trujillo? Solidaridad to win in Zulia? Ledezma to carry Barinas?. This will be a pre-primary to start sifting through a unity candidate for the presidential election. Whichever party runs nominal candidates, it must leave the list vote to the others of the coalition, that way you will really know who has what appeal where by comparing seat votes and list votes.

Thus, on the list vote part of the “morochas” distribute seats as the result of Sunday vote, even if AD gets half of the candidates. You can have there multi party lists and use that as a pre-primary of sorts. Though you could demand to chose some of the AD candidates, force AD to renew itself some, to have less ADecos willing to pact with the devil. AD will do it for a few extra candidates, trust me! More than one party can support the list vote, so go ahead and have fun with it. That way you will protect yourself from any accusation of lack of primaries. But do not worry about that, Chavez is not going to allow primaries in his camp, not after what has been happening with the Tupamaros.

SUPLENTES

The Venezuelan law has a wonderful tool to allow you to reach unity: the replacement assemblyman: "el suplente". The suplente is the guy that seats and votes following Chavez orders when a chavista big week must attend some Chavez meeting or do his or her Miami shopping. Make every candidate that runs under the alliance pledge that they will seat one assembly session yes, one session no, lots drawn after the election. Make every candidate that want Unitarian support sign an official pledge and publish it, along their tax return. That way both principal and "suplente" will be motivated to run together even if they are from different party. They will both seat equally with both serving 6 months session. You can even force them to share any income as an Assembly person! And point out how shameful chavista suplentes have been behaving! Show that yours will be useful national assembly people that will really work if they want to remaining the assembly.

Be creative!!!! There is always time later to agree on annulling agreements and what not. Whatever you annul will never be as bad as the unfulfilled Chavez promises. And who knows, you might like it, it might work and by 2006 you might kick Chavez out. But one thing is certain: the way you are managing things, Chavez is staying until kingdom comes!

CONCLUSION

All of this can be set up in one month if there is a will among you. You can do something else if you want, but it has to be as radical, as inspired, as selfless, as looking forward.

Or people like me will stay at home and start looking within chavismo for ways to survive (Tupamaros? A mision "collaboration"?)We are not going to support you any longer if you do not give us reason to support you and if you are dragging us down along. It is time to grow up. The games are over.

Trouble in Venezuelan electoral paradise

Rodriguez, the head of the Venezuelan electoral board CNE keeps trying desperately to apply thick make up on the abstention numbers. With little success, though he did manage to decrease by a point the total abstention "according" to the manual vote counts now in. Isn't it interesting that whenever the manual votes counts come in, chavismo always seem to improve its numbers? Coincidence? Naaaahhhh..... I am just some silly oppo that is always willing to find fault. Shame on me!

The interesting piece of data is that everyone of these already artificially inflated voters cost the nation 20.13 USD! This is kind of steep for virtual voters, if you ask me! You may add Rodriguez, the shrink from hell, to the long list of inefficient Chavez servants. He got the job done, maybe, but at great cost and with all the seams out for all to see.

Meanwhile the Tupamaros are rioting in the streets, and not only those of Caracas. The Tupamaros, who borrowed their name, I think, from one of the most fearsome urban guerilla in Latin America, the one from Uruguay, are a left of Chavez group based originally in the 23 de Enero area, a popular and populous area where the ills of Caracas are particularly strong and which was until this Sunday considered the bedrock of chavismo. This might change soon.

Apparently during the rather fake primary process of selecting candidates for town halls in Chavez party, MVR, (a mistake that will not be repeated for the designation of national assembly candidates of the MVR), the Tupamaros "won" but lost anyway. This at the time was duly reported as scenes of intra chavista fighting were ubiquitous in papers and TV. The Tupamaros were duly pissed off and decided to run on their own, of course to defend the true revolution of President Chavez and to protect him against the thieves inside the MVR who hide the truth to Chavez. Apparently they have not realized yet that Chavez as the president of MVR (illegal and unethical by the way) knows perfectly well that the embarrassing Tupamaros have been set aside. See, Tupamaros have the nerve to demand results from the government actions! Imagine that! Given them money in Mision X is apparently not enough to please them! The nerve!

So now we see them on Globovision and RCTV, two oppo media, defending Chavez but accusing "elements" within the CNE and the MVR of cheating them from their votes. They know of course that all the money comes from Chavez and they are trying the path that so many other ex-chavista tried and failed, to pretend that a camarilla "isolates" Chavez from the reality. Good luck there, Tupas! By the way, in spite of the clear popular roots of the Tupamaros that cannot be accused of being "white" opposition, as you can see from the above picture, they are already being trashed by servile chavistas such as the mayor of Petare who owes his position to his daddy being the vice president. Seeing Vicentico accuse Tupamaros of pro oppo tactics was truly a highlight on how low can people sold out to chavismo fall, how willing they are to become modern days Quislings.

What happened there is that the Tupamaros fell because of the illegal and unethical "morochas" tactics, that is the double voting that favors obscenely the winner of the total vote. That is why chavismo with not much more, if that much, 60% of the vote it racking at least 80% of the seats while Tupamaros or oppo parties, who before Chavez would have got some minority and democratic representation, are shut out from even having a voice to complain. But the regular readers of this blog already know quite well the different ways that chavismo cheats.

It is thus no wonder to see a declaration of Carlos Melo, another one from the left who is left without representation, declare that Chavez objective is the one party state, a la Afro-Muslim fashion where local tyrants pretend that the people are happy with a single party state. And one might add that within that one party structure only the line of El Supremo counts as we see the MVR less and less inclined to try the primary system, going back to the good old days of AD from where it comes from, after all.

And speaking of AD, it also had an internal public fight yesterday. Isn't that something that AD and the MVR look everyday more and more the same! Of course there is a segment of AD that is getting upset at the continuous lack of good results for AD (and Sunday was quite a lackluster day for AD, preferring to go down in flames rather than to concede that it might not be the main opposition voice, another way in which AD and the MVR are so identical!). At least in the press conference that was interrupted by hecklers, AD let out the idea that time for opposition unity had come.

Aside from the funny anecdotal story of this Tupamaros and ADecos, those rioting street scenes should point to us where the future lay, where Chavez wants to go: a single monolithic party that is held together simply because all the electoral mechanism are set and rigged to make it very difficult for a democratic option to develop. The model here is Mexico who managed for 70 years to have the PRI in office. Chavez just want to reach 2021. No! Wait, it is now 2023 and some say 2030. Seems that he is liking power more and more. I suppose he has decided that he wanted at least 20 years of Latin American leadership and each year that Castro lives, well, Chavez must push back his retirement...

The real result of Sunday's election

And to keep the suspense short, it is the high rate of abstention.

Yeah, yeah, chavismo got 80% of the seats, and this and that, but this is not very interesting to discuss as it was already predicted. As I wrote yesterday, it is enough to look at some key results to have an idea of the local variations played, something expected in a local election, the only real interesting thing. Even within chavismo, local disputes affected the outcome of that 80%, as the Tupamaros were protesting today claiming that chavismo "morochas" had robbed them of councilmen supposedly elected on their lists. Welcome to the opposition frustrations Tupamaros! It was fun to see you on Globovision tonight. They did not want to receive you in VTV?

But the abstention number, the official CNE of 69.18% (you gotta love that 0.18!), this is the number that excites all from chavismo to antichavismo. Definitely the political frame has shifted yesterday. Thus, let's go by parts.

Pollsters in the mist

...,les augures menteurs,...

Some polls before the election were giving all sorts of high numbers for Chavez, as high as 80% even as many questions would cast doubt as to the methods of the polling. Reminder: a country that has suffered the apartheid making Tascon's list is not going to reply very honestly to pollsters. Pollsters seem to be unable or unwilling to modify their techniques and keep getting weird results.

This does not mean that I do not acknowledge Chavez appeal, and after Sunday I would look like a fool pretending otherwise. But certainly that support is very badly evaluated. A little bit over a week ago the director of Keller and associates, the only polling firm that seems to get its act together these days, was interviewed by Roberto Giusti. This fascinating interview has been translated into English. What is remarkable in the work of Keller is the differentiation between illusion and reality in Chavez supporters and how Chavez manages to maintain popularity on the illusion he creates rather than actual deeds. The conclusion, one that this blogger has always held to, is that the hard core chavismo vote is 30%, something that even in the heyday of opposition hopes in the mid 2003 when some polls seem to drop Chavez to 20% and so many people were so willing to accept, I always supported.

It seems that Sunday's result will force people to consider Alfredo Keller a little bit more seriously. Unfortunately for the opposition, his numbers do not point to an easy way out without work and a modicum of unity....

The CNE abstention

Et la foule grandit, plus innombrable encor.

The CNE has come out with its number and nobody believes it, not even the allegedly pro Chavez observers of Ojo Electoral who give 74% abstention. Sumate goes to 78.1% abstention. The truth is obviously somewhere in between, that is about the number of 2000. This is very bad for the CNE indeed. The 12/2000 elections came after two years of 6 difficult and tense elections. Actually, chavismo was so afraid of elector exhaustion that it added at the last minute a trade union referendum in the hope of stimulating participation. The result was disappointing as 76% stayed home.

But it gets worse. If it were not for the last minute prolongation, illegal prolongation, of voting hours until 7 PM, by the CNE own admission 500 000 more people would have been added to the abstention numbers, bringing the results to the 2000 one. If voter fatigue was obvious in 2000, voter fatigue cannot be claimed today, even more as chavismo made a big issue of having its supporters go out and vote.

The CNE in fact has been trying extremely hard to cover this fiasco. Arrogance and grandiloquence and presidential congratulations, all was used to that effect, even a cadena of youth and student festival. But we all know what we saw on Sunday, or rather did not see. We all are still waiting for the visual evidence that at 4 PM on Sunday voting centers had so many people standing in line that voting hours had to be extended. So far we only have the word of Lucena and Rodriguez, and it has proven worthless long ago. It would be as if Cindy Crawford where to try to cover her beauty mark with make up: she might manage it but you would still know it is somewhere below.

It reeks of CNE fraud, yet again, and a miserable one as it is not even a matter of changing voting numbers, just trying to have people show up.

The chavismo abstention

Pour les âges futurs, l'héroïque Laurier.

Of the opposition abstention there is not much to say. It had been announced, people had campaigned for abstention, the CNE even emitted veiled threats against such a campaign. Whether the strategy of abstention promoters to fight chavismo is good or not is not for today, but that abstention was not a surprise.

But the chavismo abstention was a surprise. Let's, for the sake of argument, believe the CNE number of 70 %. And let's believe the datanalisis polls of 70% for Chavez. And let's assume that of the 30% that voted, 8% only were opposition. So we have 70% chavistas of which less, much less than half of them, 22 %, bothered to vote, IN SPITE of a dedicated campaign, IN SPITE of even a semi cadena on voting day, IN SPITE of all the free bees distributed, IN SPITE of last minute voting hours, and IN SPITE of many other things we do not know about.

Any long winded explanation on how these type of elections always provoke high abstention cannot explain how come a leadership based on passion (see the Keller interview above) cannot convince more than a third of its followers to go and vote.

Why the abstention?

Déjà le temps brandit l'arme fatale.

It is actually very simple, beyond all sorts of complex explanations such as why misiones cannot buy eternal loyalty. The fact is simply that in a regime that is more and more centralized around a unique leader, it becomes pointless to vote for anything as all know that it is irrelevant. The leader might as well name whoever he wants. Thus, in a future measure, as a hardening of the government is sure to follow such a spiteful electoral demonstration, we can expect the "democracia participativa" to find ways to force people to go and vote. Chavez needs more votes in 2006 than he got in 2004. A veneer of democracy needs to be shown to the world. Or why else did you think the electronic voter registration is all about? It is to know who voted and for whom. That for sure will encourage people to move their butts on election days.

All verses from the same French poet. Bonus point to whomever guesses the name.

Some symbolic results

Finally, the extremely slow CNE page is releasing some results. I have compared what can be compared, that is the list votes to council folks and the list votes for the state assemblies of October 2004, which were already much lower than the votes for governor or mayor. Of course, this is assuming that what the CNE publishes ressembles the truth.

San Felipe is lost for the opposition. In October 2004 with 34% abstention, the Chavez candidate got 5 894 votes. Yesterday the chavista list got 6 006, a thin increase. The opposition had carried San Felipe for Lapi's party with 9 996. Now it has 2 853, a drop of 71%. So, before anyone says that the talent of Gimenez at the Yaracuy state since late 2004 is responsible for the victory, I would suggest that they get their calculator and verify these numbers. Any victory of chavismo in San Felipe is by forfeit. Chavismo might be happy to gain the town hall but it is a hollow victory. If fair elections ever come again to Yaracuy, they should worry about their seats as they have failed to grow after 10 months in office except for the newly registered voters as per the change in public workers that moved to San Felipe. I do not think that the drop in Convergencia vote is solely due to pro Lapi public workers moving out..... As for the opposition, in flawed 2004 elections it still managed to retain San Felipe. They could have retained town hall. Now they will have to deal with the chavista folks in town hall, harakiri is thy name.

Caracas Park Avenue, Chacao, remains Primero Justicia. In 2004 Chacao voted 20 844 for the state assembly in spite of an already strong abstention movement (something that did not happen in Yaracuy). This time the PJ list dropped to 14 693, a solid 30% FURTHER drop. Chavismo was 4 402 and this time drops to 3 120! A 25%! And those are some of the rich chavistas (Rodriguez among many lives in Chacao, in a luxurious pent house, I was told).

Baruta, middle and upper middle class stays PJ. 37 797 in October 2004, but this time 12 395!! Yet chavismo goes from 9 011 to 6 359. So, there is chavista abstention even though by voting they would have had a chance to improve their holdings in Baruta and embarrass PJ. But the anger of the middle class for the system cannot be hidden anymore, even the middle class chavistas as I assume there are some in Baruta.

Chavismo abstains in popular Caracas neighborhoods. Sort of looking at random I picked El Valle, a low middle class and lower class neighborhood. In October the MVR, Chavez list, got 17 985. This time it got 10 485. A 42% drop is just not normal, no matter what spin chavismo puts on, in particular when the October 2004 elections had already some abstention effect in the Caracas area, including El Valle. Interestingly although not a PJ area this one did run a list both times but experienced a slight increase! From 905 to 1032. In 2004 the MAS (center left) was running in the union list with PJ but this time went alone. And its vote, although meager, also went up from 145 to 479. Thus clearly there is something else going on in El Valle: the locals are not happy with the infamous Bernal, at the very least, and some are unhappy enough to go out to vote for someone else.

PJ points its nose in the provinces. In Lecherias PJ gets 2 501 votes to 842 for the MVR! Up from the 1 320 from 2004 whereas MVR actually goes down from its 1 211 result! Even if Lecherias is a rather open area that lives on tourism and thus more open to the language of PJ, it is still a demonstration that with time an effort PJ can get a few townhalls outside of Caracas. But in Maracay more affluent Las Delicias PJ fails to pierce even it it gets into second place, probably victim of abstention, and a heavy wealthy military component in the neighborhood cashing on Chavez bonanza. Thus the MVR gets 4 070 to PJ 973. AD is a distant memory in Las Delicias.

Proyecto Venezuela in big trouble. In the affluent Naguanagua district the PV list vote went down from a 2004 total of 13 545 to a stunning 1 995! The lack of fighting spirit of Salas Feo, the defeated and more than likely cheated out ex governor might have had something to do with it as his electors just abandoned his party! In rural Bejuma it is a complete collapse. PV goes down to 111 from a 2 388 in 2004! The implosion of PV is just a major fact of this election as even in Caracas very affluent El Hatillo district, PJ takes the majority of the town hall and they are not in best term with the barely reelected and very questioned PV mayor Catalan who probably worries as of today of a Recall Election on him next year, even if PJ does not ask for one.

AD in trouble too. Monagas state was a bastion of AD. Well, apparently no more. In one of the state capital Maturin districts, San Simon, AD drops to third with 1 889. It had 16 348 less than a year ago! But MVR has nothing to write home about. It also drops to 11 308 from a high of 20 445. But apparently some divisions among chavismo there is responsible for that result. Yet, the drop is impressive! In Lara we can see more trouble for AD. It seems that the division tactics of AD there affected any recovery it might have hoped. In Barquisimeto's Catedral parish we can see the order of players evolve. In 2004 we had MVR with 14 412, PJ with 1 309 and AD with 1 304. In second was a coalition now gone but whose main party was OFM with 3 617. Today we see MVR with 9 573 (chavismo suffers as in Caracas, even in militant Lara), PJ gets a decent 1 167 which brings it to a sudden second in an area which is not very favorable a priori, OFM drops to 4 with 978 votes and AD to a distant 6th with 826! Though there is a chavismo dissidence with the Communist party getting a third position with 1 079 as governor Reyes Reyes dynastic intentions are causing trouble in chavismo rank and file. Thus AD seems to continue its decomposition as its isolationistic and arrogant position is not bringing the dividend it hopes even when chavismo falls back some.

Even in Margarita island where it holds a governor, AD is not faring much better. Porlamar, the main city of the state, sees AD go down form a 2004 of 4 220 to a 3 085 today. Each time, even though the MVR is rather unpopular in Margarita whose tourism industry has suffered through currency controls and import restrictions, the MVR wins, in 2004 with 7 153 and yesterday with 3 903, admittedly a spectacular drop! Chavismo CAN lose votes!

Conclusions?. There is no need this time to make a deep analysis as I did in previous electoral moments. Besides, the nefarious role of the now infamous CNE is even more perturbing, even less favorable for a serious analysis of the real trends of the country as it was in October or August 2004. The only conclusion that one might dare to draw is that chavismo is much more vulnerable than thought at first. But we can also conclude that the opposition is far from showing any ability to gain from this. PJ ascendancy is far from assured though of all the opposition parties it is the only one that can lick its wounds. AD is not yet dead but it is corpse like in texture. The others are pretty much history or reduced to local accidents such as Rosales in Zulia state or Copei reduced to Tachira. PV might be gone. The center left is not even ready to run in competitive elections. However those conclusions are drawn, and I must insist on that, under the light of the consequences of an ethically corrupt CNE who has deeply damaged the electoral act.

A much more interesting post to be written later is to study how come chavismo has such a sudden weakness. Or to discuss what the abstention camp, a very meager victor, and an ineffectual one, will offer now. But that will have to wait for another day.

The cadena from hell

Today, fortunately for the government, there is the opening of the Youth Festival, XVIth edition. This festival created long ago for socialo-communist youth used to be held in formerly held soviet block countries. Now, of course, it must seek greener pastures, and wallets, in places such as Venezuela. I do not want to appear cynical as I support any summer festival that keeps youth from drugs and who knows whatelse, but when one reads the planned activities, well, it is like a summer school for old fashioned unreconstructed leftists. Here, a few beauties:

• Peace and security in a world free of nuclear weapons (this in a country where the beloved Supremo is sorta seeking a little nuclear facility).
• Prevention and resolution of conflicts (in a country where El Supremo places himself in as many a conflict as he may get away with)
• Religious fundamentalism, nationalism, terrorism and intolerance (now, that is a mish-mash that I would like to attend!)
• Brain drain (a forum on how the best and brightest in Venezuela are finding their way out of Venezuela?)

Some others do make sense such as gender rights and AIDS fight, something that any youth should really worry about. But I suppose that those are the ones that will be attended by the genuine folks, the above mentioned meetings probably reserved for the indoctrination of the cadres that will propagate the glorious bolibananarian revolution. Or the Cuban one, this is a multiple choice option.

Fortunately this is timely for Chavez as a "triumphant" government getting about 80% of electoral seats seems to prefer to talk of anything but yesterday's electoral results. Even Tony Blair was more gracious in his victory. So tonight, as talk shows warm up, we get a cadena for the inauguration of the festival. Political discussion on the high abstention, the real meaning of the electoral day, will have to wait for another day.

Right now all Venezuelan channels must show the opening ceremonies, a forced cadena. A sloppily conducted affair in dire need of some semi serious choreographer. It takes place in the military parading fields of Fuerte Tiuna, with El Supremo himself receiving the flags. It could have also been taken place in La Carlota airport (too close form the Eastern Districts that in spite of heavy abstention have rejected massively chavismo?). Or the Bolivar Avenue (but too unsafe for participants at this time of night?). No, we go to Tiuna Fort because it is the only place where Chavez feels semi safe even as supposedly 80% of the country is voting for him. So all these youths are actually partying in a military field that soon might become and interment camp. A lesson to meditate tonight on, guys!

As for TV show? Well, if the kids seem to have fun, it is very, very lousy and very boring TV, full of extremely cheesy folklore totally lost in the crowd as the field keeps filing up. The Olympics it ain't! And I will spare you the high pitched voice of the female announcer and her cheap revolutionary comments. I suggest that people find something for the rest of the evening, as we are barely into Cuba entering the grounds and quite a while from the speech of El Supremo. Thank the Lord for cable TV! I will watch "Lost" tonight, on AX network, quite appropriate watching after this and yesterday visions.

The day after: a bitter taste for Chavez in Venezuela

The first thing a casual observer might think in Venezuela is that there was an election and nobody won. Indeed at home I was not kept up at night with people celebrating in the streets. Actually, as I write, we do not know yet the results, any results even if you look at the CNE web page where there is only, finally, the Rodriguez communique of last night posted. A communique that did not say much and was trying mostly to make the CNE look good after yesterday's obvious manipulations.

But commentators are starting sprouting articles and interviews. The good news for this blogger is that they confirm what he was already writing last night. This does not necessarily reflect on the sapience of this blogger, but rather on how obvious the results for anyone with a semi objective mind. In no particular order:

SUMATE states that today there are less people trusting the CNE than yesterday. The rhetoric and obscure maneuvers of yesterday, the delay in the results, the unhinging of Rodriguez again, and many more are eventually hitting home: the CNE is unable to convince people to go and vote. Sumate promises a press conference later. Will be interesting to see their numbers.

Teodoro Petkoff in Tal Cual writes an editorial about the abstention being a result of chavistas upset with the direction the government has taken after the Recall Election. His competitor in "Las verdades de Miguel" of Miguel Salazar much closer to chavismo, chimes in! Well, not really as he tries to deflect the guilt of high abstention to Chavez party rather than Chavez himself.

The more and more prestigious Keller group gives already an analysis. First it debunks the pseudo myth that the CNE has tried to project that the abstention in municipal elections is 70%. It is around 48% in Venezuela's precedents (interestingly Salazar agrees with that). The 2000 figure that the CNE hangs to as a life raft is for a very atypical election totally skewed by an unpopular and useless trade union referendum imposed on it. But Keller goes further blaming abstention on the lack of honesty from the CNE, and the divorce between Chavez and his base since the Recall Election, such as the dislike for the exaggerated pro Cuban bent that all polls observe!

But it gets better as apparently rumors fly that the opposition might have gotten way more seats than planned in spite of the abstention. If this is true, then abstention was really as much a chavista phenomenon than an opposition one and something really important happened yesterday. Could this be a defeated victory for Chavez? To be continued.

Why the CNE keeps losing credibility

This morning as I am having my breakfast I log in the Venezuelan Electoral Board, CNE, page to check on yesterday's results. Nothing yet.

Now, in 2003 the CNE embarked on a massive automatization program, ditching the previous system that served to elect Chavez in 1998 for a new system from Smartmatic and co. The new machines were supposed to be more reliable, faster, stop fraud, allow for timely publication of the results. But this morning AT 7:30 AM THERE IS NOT EVEN AN ESTIMATE OF THE ABSTENTION NUMBERS, even less of some local results.

In fact,as I see the void CNE page, I am brought back to last night when there was a controversy over a sudden extension of voting hours, on the stupid and nervous replies of Rodriguez, on its dare to a journalist to bring proof of irregularities when it is common knowledge that it is the CNE that blocked/blocks any comprehensive verification by, for example, simply opening the ballot boxes in August 2004, or the still somber maneuvers in October 2004 with Carabobo ballots brought to Caracas and never seen anymore, and so many more things. A Rodriguez still fighting old battles, battles he is unable to extricate himself of by simply doing the right thing, just as a new one is falling on his head.

No, no matter what Rodriguez and co. say, the CNE has lost even more credibility yesterday and it does not seem to realize it, or it is pretending that tall is fine in what is now an offensive aggression to our intelligence. When we see a Rodriguez claiming that the election abstention will be lower than the 2000 75% figure and yet not advancing any number we wonder if he thinks that the rest of the world is more stupid than he is. In many countries where ballots are counted one by one within a couple of hours of closing the voting centers we have the abstention number, the general result and a large number of local results, a number as large as 90% sometimes. Here, with Smartmatic, the finger printing machines, satellite reception dishes, and it is soon 8 AM and we only have a few results from the political parties.

And what about the Chavez cadena of sorts yesterday when he went to cast his ballot? About one hour of B.S. speech, a substitute on his comedy Sunday show, where he campaigned for electoral participation to support the revolution? Was that legal or not? Was that violating the CNE rules about campaign deadlines or not? But when Rodriguez is asked about it he does not know, he did not see it, the board will have to consult, lawyers will be asked, etc, etc... Showing once again all the partisanship of THE ONE institution that should be above all political partisanship.

Or what about the red hue in everything at the state TV, VTV, where Vanessa Davies late evening interviews showed her sporting a red scarf that looked Chirtmas kind of out of place? Was VTV anchor people campaigning until the last minute?

Gimme a break!

Well, maybe the CNE is an honest institution, but it behaves as if it had a lot of things to hide. And this is becoming the gravest of the problems.