The way we are

I have been distracted by many side issues and I have thus missed the “commemoration”, to give it a name, of the Recall Election of one year ago. There is really nothing to commemorate or celebrate. And I do not think that it would be foolish to claim that it is true for at least 90% of Venezuelans: we are not better off than what we were a year ago. Some might not agree but I would like to point out a few things that any serious observers would be hard pressed to deny:

• the so called Venezuelan pseudo-miracle is due almost uniquely to high oil prices, high enough that they are able to mask an oil production drop while sustaining and expanding our tropical banana version of welfare state
• importation of goods have risen by half, putting to rest the theory of “desarollo endogeno”; if the malls are again full of goodies it is due to the government allowing and subsidizing imports through considerable increases in the public sector wages, while private sector wages lack behind, a situation at the antipodes of true economic growth
• a full year of “peace” has only brought us a Mercal network for distribution of subsidized food mostly bought over seas in a totally unaccountable fashion while local production keeps dropping (we have half of the industries as in 1998, we produce less milk and meat today than what we did in 1998)
• the country is literally falling apart, be it its roads or its hospitals while no major infrastructure project, all launched or projected pre 1998, has been inaugurated or has even shown “normal” progress in its works
• Vargas refugees are still living as refugees, while Venezuela keeps giving money away and even building houses in Cuba
• the country is nowhere closer to reconciliation event though polls and electoral results would make the casual observer think
• crime is as rampant as ever while corruption is vigorously feeding a minority
• death penalty exists as strong as ever in Venezuelan jails
• and more, much more

All documented extensively in this blog, El Universal, Miguel’s work and so many other sources, free or not, but of course not in any governmental channels where all is rosy and fine. Indeed, the imposing amount of advertising made by the government on its state media, and the now intolerable amount it forces on the private one, can only speak of a government trying to hide how stalled, or even bad, things are in so many sectors. Even “cadenas” seem to increase in frequency again, in spite of the Gag law.

In other words we are living in a bubble, inflated by high oil prices, where only some sectors of the economy show some haphazard growing strength while the people simply try to regain a semblance of a normal life.

Two Tough contests

Note of the author: because this is an article about a contest, I do not want to give away the names of the winners too early in the text. For this reason, most of the references that I traditionally include as hyperlinks are cited at the end.

The other day I was discussing with some Venezuelan friends about who they thought was the worst figure in the Chavista government. I am aware that the term “worst” is a bit subjective. It depends on which measure is used to assess “badness”. One could interpret it as the one figure that has been most damageable to the country, or the most incompetent, or the one that uses his/her power in the worst way. So there are many definitions to pick the “worst” figure but, regardless of the definition, the contest is indeed quite tough because the competition is very stiff.

The Chavista government is indeed rich in figures that are incompetent, arrogant and cynic, that have damaged the country permanently and that are unusually vulgar, even for the low standards of Venezuelan politicians.

Attorney general Isaias Rodriguez and Vice-president Jose Vicente Rangel were really popular among my friends, and I must admit that they are hard to beat. And who could be indifferent to the charms of Assembly members Tascon or Iris Varela (1) (R5)? But, after some thoughts, I picked two different candidates.

I picked them because of their arrogance, striking even among all the other Chavistas. They systematically forget what it means to be a mayor representative of a democratic institution. They perform their role as if the institutions they are in were their own, with total disregard for anybody that is not identified with their party and their views. But, among all, I picked them because they have two key positions that are the foundation of any democratic system and their lousy job as keepers of the democratic way will make an impact for generations to come.

My first runner up is Chavez’s major puppet in Congress. I am aware of being a bit harsh because everybody in the current government is Chavez’s puppet, but this is a very important puppet. My first runner up uses the thin government majority in congress shamelessly; he does not even understand what it means to respect the voice of the minority, even within his own party. When a law has to be passed because Chavez wants it badly, like the Civil code modification or the Central Bank law, he asks for a blind vote and does not even admit a discussion within his own caucus, let alone the representatives of the very important opposition (R1,R2,R5).

So, my first runner up is definitely Nicolas Maduro, the president of the National Assembly.

My winner is, in my opinion, the most intelligent Chavista in the current government. One may argue that that is not a very difficult achievement given the kind of government figures that are running the country. As we say in Venezuela, “en el pais de los ciegos, el tuerto (2) es rey” (in the country of the blind, the one eyed is king). But my winner is no “tuerto”, he has both eyes and he knows how to use them. No wonder Chavez has chosen for him what is probably the most important position in his government. One may not like him, but the guy can think.

He transformed a vibrant democracy where people believed in their system into the twilight zone we have now in which nobody has any trust in the voting process. A twilight zone in which people see the abstention as the only way to protest what is happening in Venezuela. He did it by the sheer use of his arrogance and probably, his professional knowledge (3). When the opposition raised doubts about the validity of the results of the Revocatory Referendum of August 2004, he systematically refused to provide the voters with the only proof that the system still worked: the manual counting of all the ballot boxes. When Sumate claims that articles 95 and 106 of the Ley Organica del Sufragio have not been respected, he just disregards Sumate claims and says that Sumate may have confused the law with a law in the United States. When Sumate indicates that the electronic notebooks compromise the secrecy of the vote, he disregards it again.

Why do I say he is the most intelligent Chavista of the bunch? Because his strategy is brilliant:

1.- Stand in your position and forget the impartiality that the keeper of the most sacred democratic process should have.

2.-Disregard complaints and public opinion to discourage opposition voters.

3.-When necessary, accuse the opponents of the same ailments of which you are being accused.

So, it is with great amazement that I recently read that he claimed that Venezuela’s current electronic voting system was the most secure of the world and attacked the “cheating” of previous governments that used manual counting (R3,R4). That is brilliant because Sumate is asking for manual counting to insure that Venezuelans trust their system again.

Sumate is his pain in the neck (R6,R7,R8, R9). So by attacking manual counting as a cheating system, he not only wants to pass as the champion of transparency but also attacks Sumate in its quest for clean elections.

So, my winner is definitely my “tocayo” (4) Jorge Rodriguez, president of the CNE.

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At the end of this discussion, I asked another question to my friends.

“And, what is the Chavista that you like the most?”

They looked at me as if I were an extraterrestrial. It was the classical question that could only had one answer. In fact, they unanimously said

“none!”

I insisted and they kept telling me that there was absolutely no one in the government they could agree with or think good about. I do not accept defeat too easily, so, in the end I changed the question:

“OK, maybe I should not be asking about the chavista that you like the most but rather about the one that you hate the least… ”

They thought very hard about it and one of them, the most virulent anti-Chavez of the group, jokingly came up with this very surprising answer:

“Chavez!”

Even as a joke, I jumped from my seat in disbelief. He added:

« Why not? Remember, Jorge, En el pais de los ciegos, el tuerto es rey »

They meant that the Chavistas are so bad, that, ironically, Chavez himself might be the best of the bunch.

I have been thinking about his answer for a while and found out that I profoundly disagree with my friend. This has been exactly the strategy Chavez has been having lately, his government is so bad that, for his followers, he is a saint that has to put up with those very inefficient ministers. And, for his enemies, his government is so bad that he stands out as the best chavista.

Sorry Hugo, but I am not fooled that easily. You are bad, really bad. I am even tempted to move down Jorge Rodriguez to second place but I want to remain loyal to my original understanding of the term “chavista figures” (that excludes Chavez).

Call me a purist. I told you noneles that this was a difficult contest.

And as for Jorge Rodriguez…

My dear tocayo, in my mind, you are second only to Chavez himself. And, by the way, all my condolences for the ugly tricks that the “mano peluda” (hairy hand) (5) was doing with your book. But you know, tocayo, that will teach you a very important lesson :

When you are the author of a book, YOU SHOULD READ IT FIRST!

Jorge Arena.

(1) Iris Varela is known for some amazing declarations like the infamous “porque nos da la gana” referring to the fact that even with a very thin majority in Congress, the Chavistas will pass any law, no matter how absurd or unconstitutional, “porque les da la gana” (because they feel like it).

(2) In colloquial Venezuelan Spanish a “Tuerto” is a person that lost one eye.

(3) Interestingly, Jorge Rodriguez is a psychiatrist.

(4) Also in colloquial Venezuelan Spanish, people with the same given name are called “tocayos”.

(5) In Venezuela people often refer to a “hairy hand” when unexplicable things happen at the political level.

Articles and references:

(R1)“Maduro sin metro”

(R2)“Otra vez el Codigo”

(R3)“Rodriguez: no hay sistema electoral tan seguro como el de Venezuela”

(R4)“Jorge Rodriguez: credibilidad del CNE aumenta 6%”

(R5)Tal Cual 22/6/05 page 3 “Porque nos da la gana”

(R6)« Estamos haciendo algo importante con Sumate : la estamos ignorando »

(R7)« Sumate introdujo ante el TSJ recurso contencioso electoral contra el CNE »

(R8)« El 7 de Agosto no habra elecciones limpias »

(R9)« CNE confia en decision favorable en Sala Electoral » El Nacional, July 22, 2005, A1.

(R10) “CNE : libro sobre RR tiene erroes, omisiones, mentiras y tergiversaciones”

New French blog on Venezuela

Sometimes it takes the eye of the accidental tourist to cast a new look on some given Venezuelan scenes. Please, welcome Victor Bruley and his great pictures on Venezuela and chavista paraphernalia.

Favoritism in the news, even when reporting tragedy in Venezuela

Yesterday there was a tragic plane crash in the Perija/Machiques area of Venezuela. 160 people died, all passengers being French tourists from Martinique who chartered that plane to go visit Colombia and Panama.

Since the crash was in Venezuela, of course Venezuelan media here the first ones on the spot. But as I found last night, access to the crash site was restricted according, apparently, to how close to Chavez your boss is.

Since it was a French tragedy, I watched last night on cable the French international broadcast of TV5. I was aghast to observe that all long ditance shots where carrying the Globovision logo. However all the wreckage scenes were "exclusives" from VIVE TV, the pro Chavez network founded sometime in 2004. I would be very interested to know how cvome the VIVE crew coudl film the close up it filmed and how come Globovision and RCTV could only show images from afar. There is no morbity here, just a question on how come some media seem to be more equal than others.

A translation

Michel Garcia has honored this blog by translating the long letter to the opposition leadership that I wrote a few days ago. The translation into Spanish can be found here, and I hope it will circulate in order to stimulate discussion.

Delirium tremens in Venezuela?

Quo non ascendet?

On August 15 1805 legend has it that Simon Bolivar swore on some Roman ruins that he would fight until death to free America from European yoke. Or was that Caracas from Spain? Nobody really knows for sure as it was only reported decades after the death of Simon Bolivar, by the only alleged eye witness, Simon Rodriguez, to someone else who waited a few years until saying it so himself. But no reference of this scene in Bolivar’s own hand writing.

It does not matter: it is a tall tale worth exploiting and as a child I remember cartoon books on Bolivar with a dashing young Simon swearing in Rome, with romantic ruins in the background. Very Goethe.

Nobody dwelling much on the fact that to be traveling as a tourist in 1805 Rome one had to be rather rich, in addition of adventurous. Which of course speaks of the high class background of one who these days some would love to pass as the first Marxist in history.

One of those who could not resist to have his little own Roman holiday was El Supremo. But it did not work out, probably after somebody told him that Rome in August 15 was not the very best place where to go and do campaign as only carloads of Japanese tourists would be there to welcome him. Add to it the expensive youth festival and a rather pitiful electoral showing on Sunday 7 for somebody hoping to gain 10 million a year form now, and Chavez decided to do his own little Monte Sacro party at home.

So, taking advantage of adulating and well paid youth hanging around in Caracas streets, courtesy of Venezuelan petrodollars, Chavez had his little party at he Panteon church hill in lieu of some Roman hill. At least he had the remains of Bolivar a few feet away from the podium.

But the honors really were not going to be for Bolivar. In his speech (1) Chavez announced to probably a few bemused faces that he was planning to do better than Bolivar, that he would not plow the sea and retire late enough to make sure that his work would be accomplished. In short, Chavez will lead personally the fight to vanquish the US imperialism, the worst that ever existed on earth, about to commit genocide on who knows what. You got to love that free use of such burdened words as genocide and imperialism: in his supreme ignorance of history recent speeches seem to indicate that Chavez has decided that it would be simply better to rewrite it.

I suppose that in some deranged minds US imperialism is worse than, say, the Holocaust or the Gulag. Let’s assume for the sake of the argument that there is indeed a relation between Bagdad and Buchenwald (as my fingers just hurt typing this blasphemy). But when one reads that Venezuela is buying bad Ecuadorian debt, one is allowed to ask the following question: “and what about Venezuelan imperialism?”

In aeternum

Unfortunately it seems that Chavez is getting ready to stay in office until now 2030. at which time he would be 75 years old. So conceivably sometime along the way he could pull a Castro and push the envelope until 2035 or later. There is already talk of 9 year presidential terms and unlimited reelections. Probably with Rodriguez directing the farce all along, vis comica at the CNE

Of course, the real question here is how come someone can think of himself as so indispensable? Even the longest “serving” tyrants of our history were more careful with appearances. Guzman Blanco retired for a while to France before coming back. Gomez did put puppet presidents, and even left the country without a president for a little while. But now El Supremo is shamelessly planning an “until death does us part”. If there were ever an opportunity for people to start wondering about Chavez good intentions and metal balance, well, that is the one. Quosque tandem at Miraflores?

Sustine et abstine

Indeed this new development is quite worrying. I think that Chavez is smart enough to realize that not only his words are silly, but that they spread unnecessary alarm here and abroad. Not because it is necessarily a bad thing to have a president for life if he were really doing a good job, but someone who already survived a Recall Election with 40% of the people truly opposing his stay cannot possibly assume 2030 as a dead line, even more after last Sunday not even half of his folks bothered going to vote in spite of all his entreaties and CNE cheating. Castro does not seem to have such problems when he calls for elections: he gets his 100% participation and yes. So, what’s the deal?

Perhaps that braggadocio is actually a way to pretend to ignore what happened last Sunday. A betrayal of his subconscient? Or actually an announcement of things to come? Meanwhile we might as well get ready for even wilder speeches to come as we are reaching a few bicentennial events.

(1) Special treat today: all links to articles in English!

Venezuela news roundup: real cheap politics and electoral fraud again

A roundup? You mean there were other news besides the Sunday election commentary?

Well, yes, there was other news, including information on possible electoral fraud. Thus in no particular order as all the news are equally bad.

The DEA is out

President Chavez decided to sever ties with the US Drugs Enforcement Agency. One at first would wonder what would be the interest of Venezuela in breaking up with the DEA, which acts conjointly with all sorts of anti drug traffic agency. But apparently they were spying or something. No kidding... Of course the DEA is spying everywhere, or how else do you think they can catch drug traffickers? But soon the US announced that the visa was revoked to 3 National Guard officers (rumors are that they are actually involved in drug trafficking themselves). The reader can draw its own conclusions, this blogger limiting itself to think aloud about the continued decomposition of the Venezuelan army.

Do not miss the take of Manuel Caballero on "Narcochavismo" today!

The US is on trial at the "Youth Festival"

While commentators where wondering about the Sunday results the Youth and Students festival was inaugurated. This left over from the communist party better days turned out as expected, a silly crusade against the US. Of course, it was disguised first as some affair to fight for peace and anti globalization. But that would have carried the progressive and democratic veneer of the Porto Alegre Forum. No qualms here to shift to an all out attack on the US. In the country of the benevolent leader that sank around 50 USD per day per attendee (according to the National Assembly "extra budgetary credit"), all is allowed as long as his image is glorified, with Castro's along but Bush/US vilified as mush as possible. In a week where we learnt that HIV medicines are short and that the public hospitals have asked private clinics to help with radiography services as all the ones in the public sector are out of order, a simple calculation shows that the government has sunk at least an admitted 9 millon USD in a festival which gave us the following highlights:

• Revolutionary youth of the world shopping at fancy Caracas malls electronic stores
• Revolutionary Cuban young women shopping for soap and shampoo in downtown Caracas
• Revolutionary concerts free for attendees. Local kids that wanted to go also (there was plenty of room in some of those concerts) where not allowed in
• A mock trial against Imperialism (a.k.a. as the United States of America) where all the evidence against the US 200 years of imperialist career was presented. Interestingly the accusatory part was Eva Golinger, US attorney who made a specialty of accusing Venezuelan opposition figures for not even a fraction of what she did against her country today. But the US is a democracy and Venezuela has ceased to be one. I am not sure if Ms. Golinger realizes how disgraced she came out today.
• An hysterical 12 year old Cuban kid who had been brain washed and who broke at least a dozen of Venezuelan laws and regulations with his speech live on state TV. The kid words were so incendiary that Globovision had to "beep" them, but they made it live on VTV who, we are sure, will not be molested by the state regulatory agencies (1).
• And who knows how many "cadenas" for El Supremo inspiring words.

All of this duly documented in Venezuelan papers, including moderately pro Chavez Ultimas Noticias who probably could not believe its own ears and eyes (2). Plus the mock trial on the festival web site for Eva whereabouts in her Caracas Rose starring role

Electoral fraud

Friday night on Globovision we had Alfredo Keller declaring that his vote was not reflected in the table where he voted, according to the CNE web page. Miguel reports today with his juicy comments that in addition of the extraordinary number of null votes, the CNE admitted that results were erroneously reported on the CNE web page. Today we read the interview of Tulio Alvarez where he comes right out to say that the August 7 elections were fraudulent. Thus the numbers of votes, the abstention, the results, are all meaningless. The only thing that is true is the empty voting stations so amply reported everywhere while we are still waiting for the documented evidence for voting stations with long voting lines that "forced" the CNE to extend voting hours for three hours. All serious observers concur to suspect that these three hours where part of the fraud.

But the biggest fraud was that the CNE accepted the "morochas" of chavismo allowing basically the double vote of chavismo. If we count the null votes (amazing by themselves, read Miguel) we find out that with about 30% of the votes Chavez party get about 60% of the seats at stake. With its allies it gets about 80% while its dissidence is spoiled of its few seats and end up rioting in the streets. But a deal must have been reached as the Tupamaros rioting last week have announced that they were going back into the fold, that there was no fraud. Sure, guys, suddenly you saw the light... The reader again can draw it own conclusions.

But we are left with a few questions that need to be answered by the CNE, no that it would help them greatly at this point as their reputation is pretty much shot in both camps.

Why the voting prolongation? How come there is NO HARD EVIDENCE at this point that there was a need to keep voting stations open three more hours? How come you knew that there was voting lines through the finger print machines which supposedly do not communicate with the CNE during voting hours? Was the CNE electronically linked to voting stations in spite of your promises? Were you again monitoring who was voting for whom and where and when?

Why so many Null votes? Why the automated system with Smartmatic, that cost us a fortune and still gives us 17% null, huge delays in reporting, and bad reporting anyway? (Do not miss a new great investigative reporting by Alek Boyd on the cheats at Smartmatic and how US electoral districts would be well advised before trusting their electronic votes to such people!)

And many more questions that could be asked, but the reader surely will consider this enough to draw more conclusions. By the way Sobella, how long until you quit the CNE? Or must this blogger decide once and for all that you are actually an active accomplice in the forgeries of the Rodriguez sleaze team?

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(1) Venezuelan laws forbid the appearance of kids at political events. In addition, the new "gag" law forbids obscenity and diverse bad languages during kid TV hours, hours when that particular "pionerito" pronounced his hysterical words. This is a judicial no-brainer, but of course, I advise people not to hold their breath waiting for the sanctions.

(2) Ultimas Noticias and El Nacional reported on the HIV drugs deficiency (subscription only, as Tal Cual, sorry!). One of my friends taking them confirmed to me that indeed gaps are now frequent and CD4 monitoring deficient. But he considers himself lucky as he has not been without drugs for more than a week though it happened more than once. He does not know whether he is getting the real thing or Cuban generics. The collapsed radiation system has been extensively reported, in particular by Tal Cual. Again I have a relative on a long waiting list for anti tumor drugs. He will get radition AFTER the chimiotherapy. Hopefully things will work better then. How many pounds of HIV drugs can be bought and how many radiation reactors can be fixed with 9 million USD?