The evening update of a Friday 13
13/02/2004

Well, not much to say. The day did not end up too bad, all the action apparently concentrated in the morning CNE outdoor show.

Two newspaper articles (subscription only, sorry) reminded people that violence is the trap that the government is setting up for the opposition, in particular for its fringes spoiling for a fight. Ibeyisse Pacheco, a journalist from El Nacional and Teodoro Petkoff the director of Tal Cual coincided in that we have come too far to blow it with a silly posture of strength and anger tomorrow. Apparently it has worked as the opposition march of tomorrow decided not to look for an alternate way to the CNE, blocked by the silly Mercado Popular on Bolivar Avenue. Still, chavismo has set up a few "street fairs" at diverse sites kind of too close for comfort for the opposition march.

Unfortunately I will not be able to go to that march. Driving plans I had set up fell apart at the last minute, in addition to work problems and what not. I really would have liked to go as it might have been a rather important event. And I wanted to share the emotion and possible risk. However there might be in a few days an equivalent march in Yaracuy as one of the objectives is to give people a "certificate" that they have signed. Mracaibo is doing thus on Sunday and perhaps Yaracuy will get nto the act, if anything as a campaign set up for Lapi re-election.

I will be following events closely tomorrow.

PS: a friend of mine working for the public administration has been called for a meeting for most of Saturday. Chavismo is doing all what it cans to draw people away of the march. Must scary to be so scared.

The PM update of a Friday 13

Let's start with the new travel advisory from the US. Another embarrassing moment for Venezuela as US citizens are advised to stay clear.

Then we can go to the CNE to hear the Carter Center and the OAS express in very diplomatic term their concerns not to say their possible displeasure.

You can also read that while they were making their way to the CNE reunion, the OAS representative's car was attacked by the Lina Ron mob camping out in front of the CNE since Monday. Apparently he was confused with a leader of the opposition but since the chavista mobs are more of the shoot first and ask question later, his car was duly bombed with fireworks and had to be evacuated fast. Live on TV by the way. Probably on CNN by now. One can imagine the ambiance of the reunion in the CNE while pandemonium was going on outside, with the gusts wondering how they were going to leave unscathed. Sound proof rooms soon available inside the CNE?

The question of course is: is Chavez able to control his fringes or is he using them to stir trouble? You can guess my reply.


But Chavez's image received today yet another unexpected blow. Brazil's president yesterday not only trashed the latest Chavez gambit to be a Latin America Revolutionary leader by saying that Venezuela should stay out of the Bolivia Chile quarrel, but that the latest moves in Caracas were conducting to a possible civil war in Venezuela. Lula has been the leader most courted by Chavez. Did not work too well it seems.

It is Friday the 13th for Chavez, not only for the opposition.

Friday13, AM update
I am waiting for Freddie or Jason to pop out at any time

Friday 13, February 2004

I will pass on further jokes as to the date, besides in Venezuela it is Tuesday 13 that people fear. I really do not want to know the reason, but I love 13 as you can always find hard to get appointments on these dates...

First, my bad. Jorge Rodriguez, one of the chavismo members of the CNE declared yesterday that even though the decision for the recall Election is delayed, the clock will run as of today. I do not know if I should be reassured or further worried. Maybe Mr. Rodriguez declared that because he knows that somehow he will make sure that the decision will be favorable to Chavez's interest. Besides, it is his opinion and I can already see chavismo putting down some legal artifact as to make sure the clock runs only after the official announcements. Chavismo is much better at creating legal artifacts than respecting actual laws and rules. But I digress.

Meanwhile this morning the Carter Center is back to the CNE for yet another probably very tense meeting. It looks like the Carter Center is not amused. We'll see.

Interestingly, since yesterday chavismo is rather silent while the opposition is foaming with indignation. Except for the irrepressible Juan Barreto showing yet another "video" to prove that the opposition is arming itself for a coup. The old video was of a shopping trip that the Metropolitana Comander took to Europe 2 or 3 years ago. The video shows people playing with guns rather than plotting anything sinister. Regardless, Barreto in his own unimitable, presented this as irrefutable proof deserving immediate destitution of the usual suspects. And went on fearlessly to state that "4 or 5 containers full or weapons and ammunitions" had just entered the country. The least we can say is that the suppliers are rather long with their delivery. Not to mention the incompetent National Guard that is supposed to watch the harbours and should have stopped "4 or 5" containers.

The rioting in Valencia yesterday was much worse than I thought. Senseless violence by a bunch of wayward "students". Some TV footage on Televen treated us to a couple of people trying to smash a phone booth with student desks. Why, oh why? Besides the "traditional" bus burning of course. The most important event was actually a non event. When the National Guard was called to re-enforce the Carabobo state police, well, it did not show up. This is the same National Guard battalion of the burping general, the one that made its reputation by raiding food storage and beating up civilians during the strike last year. But now their comander is the divinely appointed candidate for the Carabobo statehood and the National Guard there will be all but impartial as was clearly shown yesterday by its absence.

In other words, the demonstrations yesterday were not spontaneous at all, but designed specifically to demonstrate that the actual governor cannot keep order in the state but that the burper will be. And if you have any doubt you could also watch Carabobo chavistas that have taken over the Bolivar Square of Valencia and forbidding access to it to anyone that cannot prove his or her fealty to the great leader.

Jason and Freddie watch out! The Burper is coming!

A quick update
Thursday 12, February 2004

I was rather busy today and this late hour I have not even read a paper yet. Only a little bit of TV and a couple of phone calls. Still, quite enough to get unsettled.

Today a lot of unrest was observed around Venezuela as many students using the excuse of the "Day of the youth" to riot in front of their school, some time with no particular reason other than hormonal imbalance, or so it would seem. And Chavez missed an important appointment, no explanaition at the time.

The Electoral Board (CNE) kept its internal struggles and definitely we will not know any time soon when a decision, if any, will be made. One could suggest a compromise, announce that the official result will be announced later but that the calendar for the voting will start as of tomorrow anyway. That is, there will be only a delay in the announcement but not a delay in an eventual recall election. That the CNE refuses to consider that proposal is enough evidence that the objective of the chavistas in it is purely and simply to delay, delay, delay... Or was that cancel, cancel and cancel?

The reason, and I must talk about this now, is that suddenly the chavista camp objected to a whole bunch of forms that were filled up by a single hand, except of course the signature and the thumb print (planillas planas). According to chavistas they were "manufactured". For the opposition it was simply zeal at the collection centers to make sure that no mistake would be made and that all of the information would clearly be taken from the people that had only to sign. After all, most public documents in Venezuela are filled up by third parties and only signed by the interested parties. But if one is to believe chavismo, it has now become easier in Venezuela to fulfill the legal requirements for marriage, wills, transfer of properties and what not rather than petition the government for an election. Democracy anyone?

For those that have read my posts through the recollection process you will recall that I did get one of the signature collector to go to a relative that could not go out to sign. I did get inside my car the recollection guy and the pro-Chavez witness. We went to my relative's house and she showed up at the door. There the recollection guy asked for her ID and filled up the form, while I was amiably chit chatting with the chavista witness. Then my relative signed, stamped her thumbprint, the collector showed it to the witness and off we went. Yes, that is right, the collector under the watchful gaze of the chavista witness was filling up the form all by himself. Apparently chavismo would like us to believe that he was committing fraud. Well, at least my chavista that day was nice and sensible, not like the goons now posted in front of the CNE to block access to any opposition character that dares to go downtown Caracas. Decency anyone?

But one good new nevertheless. The French Language site Forum France Venezuela has been revived!!!! At long last. They have had some problems since last summer but formed a new team and are going on with translations of important Venezuelan articles and documents. Even some original contributions on occasion although they seek to be strictly a medium to transmit in French information material that is screened out by smooth operators like the infamous Le Monde Diplomatique. I will be honored with occasional contributions, in French, there. Please do visit at least once and let your francophone friends know about this contribution to our fight to preserve democracy in Venezuela.

See you tomorrow as something my hit the fan.

Late night TV in time of crisis
Thursday 12, February 2004

I am a little bit restless tonight and not being able to sleep I went back to watch TV. For some reason I decided to watch the State TV (VTV) instead of a rerun of the X files. And indeed sometimes there are such cosmic coincidences: after I while I did not know which one I was watching.

I caught it when some "star", that I have never heard of, was being lengthy interviewed and saying how much he supported the "revolution" or some such nonsense. But that is par for the course for the state TV. Then during commercials VTV showed their little daily feature called "contact with reality" where supposedly real people say what is going on really in the country, as opposed, I suppose, to what is seen on the media from the other side. I was rather surprised to see Jimmy Carter starring in today’s clip!!! He was simply stating that he did not think that the Electoral Board (CNE) could not finish in the set dead line. Personally I would have agreed with Jimmy Carter when he said that, had I been in the country two weeks ago. But what is interesting is that this became the clip "du jour" just as the CNE postponed the final verdict on the Recall Election.

We moved on to a re-run of this morning talk show, En confianza, directed by Ernesto Villegas. I used to watch Mr. Villegas talk show on occasion as I considered that he was doing a valiant effort to provide some balance. He was probably the only show on VTV to even try it. That is, until October 2002. From then on he only invited people from the Chavez side and objectivity was pretty much sent away. As the strike unfolded he became more radical in his comments, still hiding behind his good kid looks. I thought that he had been given orders from above and wanted to keep his job but over time I had to admit to myself that he was the real thing. I was just finding out that his heart had been all along on the Chavez side. Since the agreements of May 2003, he has started to invite again some opposition figures, but rarely more than a token guest. Oh well.

Tonight rebroadcast was a gem. His guest was an obscure professor from Zulia who has created a polling organization of sorts that is been wildly quoted in the chavista media, giving of course very favorable numbers for Chavez. Ana Irene Mendez was presenting her numbers in not very glamorous fashion, which is also a trade mark of VTV aiming at being simpler and thus "closer" to the people. But her numbers did not add up, literally. In one chart she stated people's vote intentions. First item was Chavez with 49 %. Second item was candidate A with 16 %. Third was candidate B with 11 % and in fourth candidate C with 9 %. There was a final column of none of the above, with 4 %. The exact numbers I do not recall but one thing I do recall was that their added total was 41 %! 49 + 41 = 90. I am sure of the 49 and 41, I counted them twice. She had lost 10% along the way!!!! This is inexcusable as she had included a none of the above column!!!!!!! But Chavez red column looked so much bigger than the other guys’s columns in pastel tones. Undaunted and unquestioned she moved along to explain how surveys can be fudged (she should know) and ended by reading some religious work on the poor and the rich and how unfair it is all.

During commercials we were treated to a breaking news item, at 11:30 PM! Saturday there will be a giant popular market held on Avenida Bolivar. The voice over with some footage of a previously held market was from some general that I have not heard of until today. He was haltingly explaining how important it was to hold such a market this Saturday as "people" needed all those difficult to find/buy basic staples. Besides the fact that it is an admission of economical failure that the government must step in for direct subsidy for the masses, it is interesting to observe that this market is convoked a few hours after the opposition decided to hold a protest march on the shenanigans of the CNE. And part of the protest is schedule d to walk to the CNE through Avenida Bolivar. Talk of childish and desperate strategies from chavismo! And then some people wonder on how why I do not pay much attention to rumors of coup and counter coups. I mean, if the only thing that they can come up in the middle of the worst crisis since the general strike is to hold a open air street fair, then how could they organize a military coup pro Chavez?

I think I can go to sleep now, oddly.

And thus came the trick
11/02/2004

The Electoral Board (CNE) president gave a few minutes ago less than convincing declarations about the "probity" of the CNE. Mr. Carrasquero will have even a harder time in the future to pretend that he is not sold out to chavismo. The brief declaration just announced that the CNE had agreed to "review" again the signatures from 11 states. The dissenting votes plainly stated that it was not necessary as the physical revision was complete (implying clearly that it was a delaying tactic). Other crucial decisions were postponed for tomorrow.

Translation: the refusal to take questions from the press is a direct admission that we will not have a verdict on the Friday 13 deadline. Remember, you read it here first.

I will write later when I get some more info.

The reasons behind chavismo nervous breakdown
Wednesday 11, February 2004

Things did not look any tenser this morning except that the march for Saturday has been officially convoked. Since it has been a slow day at work, some news from Tal Cual decided me to cull a few numbers here and there and post this table below.

To be able to understand the table you must know first that:

1) signatures were collected in "planillas" or forms that could contain up to 10 signatures. Some forms will have 10 signatures, some less, some less than 10 valid depending on how many files were filled and how many were properly filled.

2) the Electoral Board (CNE) verifies first if the forms are duly documented and then proceeds to validate the signatures of the form. A prescreening of sorts to eliminate possible forgeries.

3) the forms that show some problem are brought to a second review to determine the source of the problem before deciding whether the signatures in that form are valid. Of course, the idea is to verify that the form has not been fabricated, but when in doubt the will of the person signing is what should matter at the end. Thus a "reparacion" process would take place at a later date for the forms that were messed up by the signature collectors but still represent the will of the signatory.

Needless to say that chavismo within the CNE has used any artifice it could come up with to discard signatures, forms and what not. The table below illustrates the relative success, or failure, of chavismo. The calculations were made considering:

*) I have assumed that an average of 7 valid signatures for every valid form. That is a rather high 30% rejection rate.

*) I have assumed that the re-verified forms will have an average of 5 valid signatures. Which is an even higher rejection rate of 50%

The results:



There are a few things that can be interpreted from this table.

First, the opposition has the signatures, no matter what tricks chavismo has been able to sneak into the CNE. And even though it barely makes it above the magical number (with a very harsh 30 to 50% rejection rate I gave according to the case), it has deep reserves to compensate any challenge once the 700 thousand get the screening they deserve.

Second, there are more problems with the forms collected by chavismo. Obviously the work of Sumate paid off in organizing the signature drive. No wonder chavismo is so resentful of Sumate and tries to make it an agency of the CIA and who knows what else. We can see yet another example of chavismo incompetence.

Translation of all of this: the CNE controlled by the pro Chavez camp, but under close scrutiny by the opposition and the Carter Center, OAS, etc., has been unable to annul enough signatures. What it will probably try to do is to validate less than the 2.4 million necessary, say 2 million and give a 5 days chance for the opposition to "correct" the 700 thousand in question. Think about it for a second:

- 700 000 people must be notified fast.

-they must come to Caracas

-they 5 days to fix it up. If the CNE expedits 1 person per minute it will take just for 100 000 people 1666 hours, or 69 days, of 24 hour days.

I surely hope that we will not come to that and that another version will be the one to occur: the CNE will give just enough signatures and Chavez will contest. The Recall Election will be delayed by a few more weeks but finally will be granted. Remember that the objective of Chavez is to have the recall election, if he cannot avoid it, after August 20 when it will let the vice president that he will name to finish the two years remaining to the term, instead of a new president likely from the opposition.

And there are still some people that think that Chavez is a democrat.