Sunday, July 05, 2009

An Honduras show down? Blood for Zelaya?

You might say whatever you want about the Honduras coup but one thing is certain: as I am typing this entry I have not been made aware of anyone killed from the coup, or even hurt beyond a couple of bruises. Normal tradition of LatAm coups include a whole bunch of killed and injured folks, starting with Chavez coups of February and November 1992 that left hundreds of people killed or injured.

Let's keep a sense of perspective here, shall we?

If I am bringing up the example of Chavez it is to remind folks that there is always room for some negotiation, for some agreement and that the end result might surprise all, including the end-of-game winners. Is not Chavez the elected autocrat of Venezuela? Is he not the one presiding the neo-fascist regime of Caracas which is much worse than the one he tried to oust in 1992 or even the one today in Tegucigalpa, a regime who at least has the acquiescence of two out of the three powers, very discreet military presence so far, and demonstrable support in the streets?

It is good to remind folks of these basic facts of life as the media is following with an indecorous frenzy the possible return anytime soon of Zelaya to Tegucigalpa. This return might be taking place in spite of the refusal of the sitting government, the blockade of the airport and the warning of Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga that Zelaya return will lead inevitably to a blood bath. And in this corner of the world they know exactly when blood baths start and how long they last. Ask Guatemala, Salvador and Nicaragua, just to name the three immediate neighbors of Honduras.

But apparently Zelaya cannot wait, his ego duly pumped up by Chavez hired help, promising to accompany him, namely Cristina Kirchner, Rafael Correa, and probably even Paraguay's Lugo. The three of them, by the way, probably most at risk from a coup ouster because of their lousy politics, personal ambition or personal depravity. Or a combination.

If the OAS had an ounce of dignity left, if it indeed wanted to defend democracy which is the art of compromise, the very least it would do is to stop Zelaya, tell him that Honduras is now out of the OAS, that sanctions are coming and that he needs to give sanctions a few weeks to work, to make negotiations possible. After all, Zelaya actions are at the root of the Honduras crisis and this also must be reminded to all, all the time. Running to defend him, no questions asked, is simply outrageous and a symptom of how presidential a system of government our continent has become since TV is everywhere. One almost could sense a common agreement form the US to Argentina that presidents are above all, must be defended against all, at all costs.

Canada's voice stood honorably, asking Zelaya not to return.

As such who cares about Honduran blood? Less illegal workers of the US? A colony for Chavez that no one else will feel compelled to send aid anymore?

As I close I learn that Zelaya took off, with the lone company of Miguel D'Escoto of the UN, a defrocked Catholic priest that served the Sandinista for decades and who is uncountably president of the UN session for the 2008-2009 period. How fitting a company. The others decided to stay put, or to fly to a neighboring country to see how the wind blows.

As usual, those that talk the most usually do the least, as Chavez illustrates so well, he who was the first one in a bailing out move from accompanying Zelaya even to the street corner. I suppose it is good for the cowards that were all talk and no action at the end, but it is still bad for the Honduras people as the possibility for blood before the end of the day increases as the plane nears Honduran space.

-The end-

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