I'll see your Makled and I raise you a Lobo

Chavez, Santos and (OMG!) Lobo

One thing is certain: Colombians now take only cash with Chavez.  Once burned, you know, twice shy....

Chavez really, really wants narcocelebrity Walid Makeld back to Venezuela where a mock trial will silence, for a few weeks at least, all the narco charges pressed against some of the highest military ranks of the Venezuelan army, and who knows how many that are into the laundering system of Venezuela, made proficient through extensive washing of corruption dirty clothing.

So Santos had no trouble to force Chavez to seat down with cursed Honduras president Lobo and have the picture published, with a Chavez looking so ill at ease that for a brief instant I had some kind of sorry pity feeling for him.  But very brief, rest assured, as soon as I remembered that he has only himself to blame for all the blackmail that Santos and Colombia are putting him through.

Lula lies

At the Iberoamerican summit at Estoril the Honduras vote brings the worse in some. One of them is Lula, who huffing and puffing left before the end saying there is no way he will recognize the Honduras result, nor will he talk to Lobo. So far we can accept that but what we cannot accept is the following, according to this dispatch from Europa Press:

The coupster (Roberto Micheletti) acted with cynicism, gave a coup in the country and called for elections when he had no right to do so.

I do not know about you but I detect at least 2 lies and possibly a third one (I should check the Portuguese words maybe?).

The elections, dear president Lula da Silva, were already scheduled before the coup, to the point that even the candidates had been selected by the major parties. That someone in your position utters such nonsense is unacceptable and only reveals that your plans have been trumped and that you are just behaving like the young thug at the sand box keeping the other kids out.

And indeed this tantrum of you seem to be confirmed by you addressing the words of Oscar Arias to you when he questioned your easy recognition of Ahmadinejad, accepting without problem the Iran elections while refusing to discuss the Honduras one. The one with the double moral is you, president da Silva, not Arias.

Thus, dear President Lula da Silva, your early exit is unbecoming, and is made worse when you add that had you known Honduras would have been in the agenda you would not have come. Does that mean that if we do not follow your agenda any future summit will not be graced by your spoiled brat presence?

As my very esteemed colleague Juan Cristobal wrote yesterday, Dear president Lula you look much more like a ignoramus brandishing the pitchfork than a respected world leader aspiring to a permanent seat in the UN security council.

-The end-

Honduras and the US win; Chavez and Lula lose

[Updated] The result is in and there is no doubt, even if some loony characters amusingly try to write fictitious results.

Honduras had its highest voter turnout in several elections, preliminary data putting abstention at below 40%, perhaps even 35%. That Lobo won with more than 50% of the vote is only accessory: the real result is that in spite of huge international pressure, calls from boycott from the Zelaya camp, the Honduran people bravely decided to turn a page on that chapter of their history, sending home packing all the guys that wanted to cause them trouble and grief. It is moments like today that renew our faith in democracy.

Interestingly the day started slowly, perhaps voters waiting to see if the Zelaya people were going to cause trouble. But as the day went on it seems that a strange mechanic took place, people went to vote late and forced an extension of one hour at the voting stations. Hence the delay in final participation result and the hurried communique early in the day by pro Zelaya and pro Chavez joints that the abstention was going to be at 65%. That was not what CNN showed, but Zelaya and Chavez seem to have been day dreaming for too long.

The clarity of the results thus allow us to procede in naming winners and losers.

Winners?

The question mark comes fromt he simple fact that the whole business had been so ill managed that there cannot be real winners here. The only one is the interim government who managed to reach the election without allowing for the return of Zelaya.

We might just settle in saying that the winners are those who manged to gain today a respite, an amount of time that will have to suffice to fix the whole mess. As such we can mark here the US and the traditional parties of Honduras. The former because eventually it figured out what was really going on, it figured out that the rest of the continent was out to get the US through Honduras, and thus the US refused to keep playing along. After having displayed the very best intentions during the early Obama's term when he visited the Trinidad summit, the US went along in the early stages of the Honduras crisis when the US joined the rest of Latin America, expecting unwisely that the OAS woudl come up with a real solution. This did not happen and today is the result of the OAS lack of compass.

The other winners were the traditional political parties of Honduras who trusted the people to see that they would by themselves understand the fraud that Zelaya was. Thus they never fully supported the Micheletti system, concentrating on the November election and letting the folks elected 4 years ago deal with the mess they had created. Make no mistake, one of the main reasons why people went to vote in large mount today is that they understood that the candidates owed nothing to Micheletti and that his administration would exit in full in January. Lobo and Santos managed to detach themselves from most that happened in the last few months and thus gained the trust of the people who voted for them.

Losers!

This is very clear: Chavez and Lula are the great losers of the day as all their manipulations failed. They can wipe a lot of egg from their face even though stupidly a very upset Lula is saying in Portugal that the election cannot be recognized, even though his assistants surely must have informed him of the unusually high turnout. Lula keeps accumulating foreign policy mistakes, a very preoccupying matter for a country which aspires to permanent seat at the security council. As such if in the short term Chavez is the main loser, on the long term Lula and Brazil might be the main losers. Why, you may ask?

The aftermath of today is very simple: the Americas are going to be cut int two because of Honduras. It may not happen if Brazil and Lula finally understand and react, but it will happen if in fact Brazil decides to split the Americas with the US.

In the next few weeks, by late January at the latest, Lobo will have been recognized by at least the US, Peru, Canada, Panama, and Costa Rica. If the following countries have not joined the recognition by then, this one could not wait long: Colombia, Mexico, Trinidad, Barbados and Chile if Piñera wins the presidential election. And because El Salvador and Guatemala share such a long border with Honduras it is difficult to imagine them holding off recognition of Lobo for much longer than January. Brazil and the ALBA will be on the other side, with Argentina as long as the Kichners hold power which is today less and less likely. Brazil and the ALBA on one side, representing an idiotic and retrograde left and the democratic market based economies on the other side. How do you think this will play into Brazil next elections? Will Wilma Roussef be willing to carry that Lula albatross if he does not come back into reason and stop receiving creeps like Ahmadinejerk or support clowns like Zelaya?

On the short term of course Chavez is the main loser. His ALBA is exposed as considerably more ineffectual than expected. Now in Nicaragua the opposition will be straightened with the Honduras example and the child molester of Ortega will have a much harder time to be reelected in a free and fair election. Nicaragua could well be the next domino. Unless it is Ecuador. After all, if Peru and Colombia recognize Lobo and unite in front of Chavez aggression, the dollarized economy of Ecuador will not be able to resist long the need to break ties with an ALBA that has no economic future whatsoever.

There are some smaller losers. The OAS has proven its uselessness. The recognition of Lobo by some will drive inside it a stake that could kill it, the more so if Insulza were to be reelected its general secretary. For an account of Insulza and the OAS mistakes read today O'Grady piece.

So let's close this post with a big congratulation to the Honduran people who have managed to stop the colonial ambitions of Chavez. Bravo!

PS: I have considered only countries in the Americas. But apparently plenty of other countries, potential donors to recover the Honduras economy, are willing to recognize today's vote.

UPDATE

The flack is having its effect. If this morning I saw on Spanish TV a confused Moratinos stating that they would not recognize the election but that they could not ignore it, El Pais from Spain might indicate otherwise. That is, Moratinos boss at the Iberoamerican summit of Estoril is moving already to find a way out the ditch in which Spain placed itself as to Honduras. Amazingly at such a summit they allowed Patricia Rodas to speak as if she were still the only legitimate representative of Honduras even though the results were already known. From El Pais article we can gather that Zapatero is starting to realize that a few mistakes were made by Spain. Then again his guiding light was the ineffable Moratinos, the one that a few moths back said that he saw no problem with the freedom of expression in Venezuela. When is Zapatero going to fire Moratinos?

Meanwhile the mood at Estoril is not helping Zapatero as Uribe who is attending (Chavez is not) has announced that Colombia will recognize the Lobo government. Since Colombia is recognizing Lobo faster than what I predicted myself, then we can speculate with amusement about what is going on in the hallways of Estoril......

In its latest coverage El Pais notes dryly "If the elections held yesterday in Honduras are a fraud, as Zelaya maintains, then the fraud was committed almost normally." Which is an elegant way for El Pais, center left newspaper of record for Spain, to recognize that Zelaya is screwed and that it is time to move on. The same article also points out to the intense anti Chavez feeling that El Pais people found in the voting lines of Tegucigalpa. Meanwhile in Venezuela the government has decided it knows best and persist in its line of calling fraud. We see this without restraint in the bitter text found in the page of the Communication ministry itself. Not that it matter much, Lobo will certainly welcome any action that postpones having to renew relations with any of the ALBA countries.

With the partial count electoral participation is hovering at 61%, which would be nearly 10 points above the last election. This makes it even clearer when you think that Honduras has a huge expatriate population that is registered to vote but could not do it except in a very few US places. If we factor this in, the electoral participation WITHIN Honduras might reach 70%, a stunning set back for Zelaya and his Chavez inspired strategy. No wonder Zapatero is moving to leave behind Lula and Chavez.


-The end-

Recognizing Honduras elections

The time has come to chose sides, once and for all. If, and I cannot stress enough that IF, today's election in Honduras are reasonably clean with a reasonably clean cut result there is no reason whatsoever not to recognize the new president elect and the government he will preside starting late January.

Why take that position? Many reasons conduce sensible people, including this blog, to decide that no matter what errors were committed from the ouster of Zelaya, it is time to turn the page and that any further hand wringing is only going to hurt the people of Honduras. President Oscar Arias of Costa Rica is perfectly right, and he has all the necessary credentials. Not to mention that already Panama, Peru and the United States have indicated that some conclusion must be reached about Honduras and that a vote is certainly the necessary first step. We can guess that Canada and Colombia will soon support such a stand and very likely after a few more prudent weeks Mexico and a new Chile government will end this phase of the Honduras charade, accompanied probably by Trinidad and Barbados.

The main reasons are:

- The elections were planned BEFORE the ouster of Zelaya, and planned enough already that the two major parties had held their primaries and chosen their candidates. Today, any serious poll, any street evidence from Honduras indicate that the people still want to decided among the two main candidates selected before the said ouster. What "moral" grounds can one oppose here? Demand that these people renounce their legitimate political ambitions? And for whom?

- Zelaya actions have proven that he is quite unfit to be a president as his own agenda trumps any other agenda that includes the welfare of the Honduran people. Instead of behaving like a responsible deposed president and promote a movement to run in the election and prove his righteousness, he has done anything within his grasp to sabotage the electoral process. Even his followers seem to be preparing the post Zelaya world, such as his "foreign minister", Patricia Rodas words in a Caracas recent rendezvous of the loony left Internationale who looks a lot she is trying to become the future "resistance" leader.

- Some actors have proven their unworthiness in this whole affair, using the Honduras crisis to promote their own hemispheric political interests. The biggest one is of course Chavez of whom there is no need to comment further except to note that unbelievably the Spanish government is offended by the political campaigns there using Chavez as a scarecrow. No, the one in mind here is most of all Brazil who keeps destroying fast its credibility, almost near zero now that Lula has received in great pump the Irani murderer. By supporting the Honduras elections, one takes a stand for democracy against those who abuse it in the name of democracy, namely the ALBA, Brazil and their client states who preach democracy from the mouth out.

I ask you the following question: do you prefer to adopt a political system like the Venezuelan one where water, electricity, and soon food will be scarce or a more open and democratic system where at least the government makes genuine efforts to provide these goods instead of spending its time trying to find an external guilty party to hide their very own guilt, as Chavez does everyday to hide his incompetence and corruption, moral and financial corruption for that matter?

No more hypocrisy anymore, there is no time for self righteous doubt. It is not a matter of supporting the Honduras vote and forget about the whole thing. The new government will have quite a daunting task at cleaning up the current mess, including sanction to all those that deserve it, and not only Zelaya or the Zelaya camp. But surely you must agree that a newly elected government has a better chance to resolve these issues than the current worn out actors.

To conclude this, if today's vote is reasonably clean, the real result is not who will win but how many people will have voted. The trend in recent elections there was for abstention to grow, but if today more than 60% of the people vote then the Zelaya cause is toast. And even if OAS observers are not present, or the even more discredited Carter Center is absent, there will be enough observers of serious background to let us know what is going on there. Heck, we will see that at the CNN images tomorrow, with or without observers.

-The end-

A Halloween agreement in Honduras

The agreement signed in Honduras yesterday is conveniently close to Halloween, a weird omen about its effectiveness and who might win the battle in the end. It is not just a matter of disguise as a Venetian Carnival would have been. In Honduras the threat of further violence and terror exists behind the continuous masquerade where all know what is at stake but where few dare to say it aloud. Freddy would have a field day playing the different inner terror of these people.

We have several pieces that try to explain what the agreement is. The Wall Street Journal titles Honduras 1, Hillary 0. Besides the note that it givers us our third capital H for the day it would seem that the WSJ is betting on the Micheletti combo to carry the day. They do have a point: the Us indeed wants this masquerade out and is indirectly acknowledging that for 4 months the Micheletti administration has been paying the bills and pushing forward the election. The Zelaya camp besides its clownesque discredit has been sabotaging elections instead of trying to take an active role in them and building for the future, which must be reminded is less than 3-4 years from now, less than the duration of a presidential term.

I am not so sure. Zelaya, or Roldos, or another will have the financial backing of Chavez, the implicit support of Brazil if Lula manages to decide who succeeds him, the complacency of the US, the intrigues of Insulza, etc, etc.... In other words, Honduras is far from having escaped the Chavez communism curse (Chavez himself in a lapsus brutis used the term communism to qualify his pseudo socialism of the XXI century).

The Washington Post has a more complete article and a more skeptical one as to who is in the winning seat. It would be all fine if they had charged the beginning of the crisis at Zelaya's attempt at unconstitutionally changing the constitution rather than the fact of the military putting him in pajamas in an airplane. But certain patterns of guilt attribution seem hard to break no matter how much evidence is brought forth.

Curiously in its editorial the Washington Post is way more sanguine than its article. For them, it is OK to sub-title "How the Obama administration outmaneuvered Hugo Chavez". True, on paper Zelaya gets to return, maybe, to his old job but in a much weakened position, a true lame duck presidency while free and recognized elections can now be held. If the turnout is above 60% this would guarantee final proof that Honduras never supported Zelaya's plan to create his own version of presidency for life. The flaw here is that it all depends on how much the US is willing to bend its muscle to enforce the deal. We might expect in the US favor that Lula, having understood the image damage he did by accepting on his own Zelaya in Brazil's embassy, might consider now that supporting the US here and telling Chavez to back off would be in fact a nice touch for Lula to end his presidency with more of a statesman image. That would explain why Chavez is using his trade mark "por ahora" about Zelaya, understanding that for the time being he cannot do anything further in Honduras. "For the time being", it must be underlined.

The New York Times looks more at the strong arms tactics need by the US to reach an agreement. If the WSJ journal took this allegedly forceful attitude as a way out for the US, the Times is somewhat more positive. though there is a slight pro Zelaya aroma that comes out of the article. The NYT, it must be noted, did not worry as much about the hand of Chavez in the continuous whole story, almost contenting itself in making the Honduras crisis a classical banana republic tale. Today we must note this sentence "But hundreds of millions of dollars in American humanitarian assistance continued to flow" making one wonder whether the NYT journalists would have liked to see more misery in the streets of Honduras... Makes you wonder if they ever called Caracas correspondent Simon Romero to check about the bounties of XXI century socialo/communism...

I am not too sure what to think of this agreement. First, for the Micheletti side to sign, no matter how much pressure Hillary put on them, it must mean that they have a fair sense that they can prevail in the end. After all hurricane season is nearly over an Honduras was spared this year, giving less opportunity for chaos which would have favored the Zelaya side. Second, they got what they wanted, elections at the end of the month with Zelaya out long enough to cease being a major destructive influence on the democratic process. Third, having removed Zelaya for so long allowed the transition government to purge or neutralize the local administration of the worse pro Chavez agents: Zelaya will have a hard time putting them back in charge, in particular if the president elect gets a good share of the electorate and if the runner up recognizes the victory without ambiguity.

Indeed, Zelaya might be so weakened now, equally from the corset about to be set up on him as well as his ridiculous handling of the situation, that the Micheletti camp might feel it worth to take the risk of bringing him back in office, to politically finish him up once and for all. There is also the possibility that Zelaya knows his days are over and he will accept to play the game so as to bring back into Honduras people like Patricia Rodas and pass the baton to them. By coming back even as a figurehead, even for only three months, Zelaya ensure his presidential pension, his retirement on his Honduras land and maybe not a too awful position in Honduras history books.

But in such an aleatory situation one never knows what surprises are in store. So let's wait to see first whether the Honduras congress will vote the agreement, the first mine field to cross. It will take at least a week or two, but no more because they need international observers for the elections. That is the final goal after all for the Micheletti people: reach a recognized election result.

-The end-

Nicaragua-Honduras: when blogs go fast

A WSJ editorial FINALLY writes what I wrote almost a week ago, that the judicial coup in Nicaragua was a vindication of what the Micheletti group did in Honduras three months ago. It is not really that I might be smarter than the WSJ, or that blogging is faster, it is simply a matter of logic: all gang up on Honduras and yet Ortega did the same shit, at least on a legal point of view, and nobody at the OAS has said anything.

Each day the OAS keeps sinking in deeper opprobrium. And the US plays along, not always but way, way too often.

-The end-

My little bit to help Honduras

Over there they are interested is seeing what they might have escaped from. Please, visit la Gringa and thank her for having forced me to work extra this week end.

-The end-

A good day for Honduras? Nicaragua makes its own coup!

The provisional government of Honduras received a big boost yesterday, courtesy of nothing else than Nicaragua. Daniel Ortega, the thug, accused of rape and all sorts of other dubious moral acts, has managed to have a portion of the High Court to gather in a very questionable legality to suppress a constitutional article banning immediate reelection. That is, he goes one further than Zelaya, he uses an opaque ruling, not bothering with parliamentarian debate, or referendum, no nothing.

While we wait how this "legal" constitutional coup plays (I mean, a sudden convocation at 1 PM to decide in a rush the reelection of a president? gimme a break!) we can turn toward Honduras who feels cornered today but who must feel quite an ego boost, quite a validation after the cavalier way into which Ortega, its local nemesis, managed his right to reelection.

At this point Honduras would be well justified in breaking relationships with Brazil, turn off the embassy electricity (in solidarity with the Venezuelan people?), send the OAS packing and release a note stating that when the OAS worries at least half as much about Nicaragua than Honduras then they will be more than willing to reopen talks. I, for one, would support such a stand. After all, there is barely a month left for the vote and even if creeps like dictator loving foreign minister Moratinos of Spain announces that Spain will not recognize the result I can assure Micheletti that drop wise countries will come around after November 29.

The farce is reaching new heights of ridicule. The OAS is now totally discredited. After having bombastically condemned the Micheletti legal regime it had to accept to come to Tegucigalpa to negotiate to try to stop the blood shed that irresponsibly the OAS promoted with its knee jerk reaction to Chavez interests in the name of a moral that Chavez is the first one of the lot to ignore. I mean, the disregard of Chavez for the OAS is such that he had no qualms in promoting a judicial coup in Managua just as the OAS is negotiating another coup not even an hour away by plane. You will observe that the way the coup was conducted in Nicaragua is an imitation of the few judicial coups already experienced in Venezuela under Chavez.

Note: the coup was held courtesy of the lousy Latino American custom of having "substitutes" that can act whenever the main holder of the office is absent. In civilized country there is no such a figure, only too prone to abuses. When a US Supreme Court is sick or dies, his seat is vacant until a new Justice is named. When a Congress member becomes secretary or dies, the seat is vacant, period. And the Vice President, the only substitute contemplated in the constitution, has no power except presiding the Senate. Even in France where representatives are elected with a substitute, this last one has no duties until the seat if officially vacated for good because the holder has become a minister, resigned or croaked. Once the substitute enters the Palais Bourbon, he becomes the holder for good.

But in our culture where political rewards are the norm, they invented the substitute practice that allows constant interchangeability. That way more people could get if not a fully paid job (they get in general compensation when they replace the main holder even for only a day) they get at least a "honor". This is what happened in Nicaragua where the Liberal holders of the Court seats were convoked too late, or were away, and the substitutes, Sandinistas (?!?!?!?!), stepped in a jiffy to vote a major constitutional interpretation.

That pernicious custom, as well as reelections, are to be banned from our political system if we want to have some day serious governments. And that goes for you too, Alvaro Uribe, NO REELECTION and if we must have it, two consecutive SHORT terms, period.

-The end-

Young Zelaya

My mail box brings me strange things. I have no idea whether the picture of a young Zelaya below is real or not, but based on his career these past few months, as Italians say, "si non e vero, e ben trovato", or the US, "too good to be true". In other words if this picture is true (and that should not be too difficult to establish), and does not correspond to a tawdry Halloween scene, then the case is close and Zelaya should be swept away to the trash bin of history, now.

You may click to enlarge if you can stomach it.

-The end-

Oh dear, antisemitism in Honduras too?

Do we detect a pattern?

-The end-

And Zelaya is back on Honduras

Really.... What a way to spoil a perfectly beautiful day in Seattle than having to think about all of these creeps again. Hillary and Arias seem to think that it might be for the best, assuming I suppose that Micheletti and Zelaya will sit down for some drinks and settle it all.....

You know what is interesting though is that Zelaya sought refuge in the Brazilian embassy. If Brazil knew of that before hand then we must admit that Brazil has been doing "foreign intervention". There might be a lot behind this renewed charade but you know what, I will sit it out for the time being, just stating that Zelaya is truly a creep and that by his own actions since his removal he has shown that he was unworthy to be president of his country. Let's see how many people die in the next few days....

Note: read Maria Anastasia O´Grady denouncing how it is that Clinton and Obama are violating the rule of law. Food for thought.

-The end-

No Mas Chavez: the fall out in Venezuela

You only need to look at the overreacting of many chavistas to notice that no matter how big yesterday's No Mas Chavez rally were, chavista officialdom is really upset. They cannot hide it.

Be it Chavez who takes lots of time to explain to us he does not care, from Syria, from Iran.

Be it the Venezuelan ambassador in Bogota who says that Venezuela is insulted (correction, you might be insulted, I am not) and implying that the Bogota government should not allow such demonstrations.

Be it the half-assed attempt today at calling pro Chavez march across Venezuela as the opposition led another successful and gigantic march in Caracas apparently dwarfing the counter march from chavismo.

Be it the Nazional Assembly member Augusto Montiel associating himself with people beating up anti Chavez protesters in Brussels.

In fact chavismo is so upset that revenge must be exacted. Thus Globovison, the closest object at hand, once again is under attack by a particularly bitter Diosdado Cabello, the guy in charge while Chavez visits the planets collection of tyrants. Not only a new investigation against Globovision is undertaken for a single alleged SMS (whereas the VTV ticker spews constant violence that the regime supports by ignoring them), but 29 more radio stations are to be taken off the air waves (in addition to the 34 already killed). Globovison offers the video of Cabello threats and bitterness. But the world is noticing and Diosdado words hit the news wires fast, even in English. They sure will be a nice complement to Chavez words supporting Iran's nuclear program today.

Meanwhile there will be more wounds to lick for Chavismo: BBCmundo reports that in Honduras the No Mas Chavez was big in 5 cities of the small country while the pro Chavez zelayista camp coudl only manage an activity in Tegucigalpa. The picture on the left is from the BBC mundo site and speaks for itself, even at a time where suddenly the US decides to show more bite against Honduras. A very bad P.R. week for chavismo.

-The end-

Honduras versus Venezuela: who is the real democracy?

A few essential details have come to mind that force us to reconsider completely the Honduras coup.

In Honduras the de facto government received the the OAS rights court: the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. It was allowed to work in Tegucigalpa and to talk with whomever it wanted. It collected the data it wanted and soon we will get a report though they already expressed that there had been violations.

In Venezuela in spite of numerous human rights violations, the same tribunal has been forbidden to visit since, I believe, 2005. As such chavismo forbids ANY independent verification in situ.

A commission of the OAS has just finished a visit in Tegucigalpa. It was composed by various foreign ministers. It visited with whomever it wanted. It left a preliminary report and left unarmed and without any disrespect.

In Venezuela the mere visit of electoral observers from the European Union already raises tremendously the tone of the Chavez government. You may forget about an OAS commission.

In Tegucigalpa protests keep happening, even in front of the presidential palace.

In Venezuela no protest is allowed close to downtown and from what I watch on TV repression in Venezuela seems at the very least as strong as in Honduras, and stronger in my humble opinion.

The Surpeme court of Honduras is the one blocking any deal brokered by Oscar Arias. In Venezuela the supreme courts bends over backward to support any of Chavez initiatives.

As far as I know services in Tegucigalpa are still of a quality comparable from what it was before Zelaya was ousted. In Venezuela... well, do not get me started.

I do not know about you, but just based on that one is allowed to wonder which is the most democratic country: subjected coup Honduras or democratically elected Venezuela. For me, right now, after what Chavez has been doing in the last 6 months, there is much better air of democracy in Tegucigalpa than in Caracas.

Not to mention much more dignity in Guatemala, Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama to deal with the crisis than vile abuse from Venezuela, Ecuador and Argentina.

I am afraid that we are going to have to congratulate the Honduras regime to have the balls and gumption of refusing to let Honduras become another creepy chavista state. Chavez is going to manage this feat, to make certain coups a valid option. amazing!


-The end-

Concrete vision of the future versus the nutty living in a reactionary past

While I was on the road today on my way to Caracas news came together that made this evening a delightful moment of glee.

On one side the two powerhouses of Latin America decided to start speaking in earnest about free trade and oil cooperation. Mexico and Brazil are now, by far, the two biggest economies south of the Rio Grande. Even if the Mexican one has been battered lately from a larval civil war due to drug captaincies to a flu pandemic, not to mention its unhealthy dependence on exports to the US, it still is varied and large enough to start rebounding any time soon. President Calderon from the right wing PAN is touring Brazil of left wing PT's Lula. Well, I should rather write right of or left of center to describe them but let's hold unto the cliches of that past even though these two man are consummate pragmatists.

During that visit Calderon proposed what should have been proposed long ago, a free trade deal between Brazil and Mexico. Can you imagine what that would mean for Latin America if these two countries could manage such a feat? Their economies are really not complementary but Mexico is an entry to the US and Brazil is an expanding market with a rising technological value. Calderon is certainly aware of that as he is trying still to stir Mexico away of the last two decades of PRI doldrums and he even proposed a cooperation between Pemex and Petrobras.

Let me put it this way, if such a deal is worked out and if it succeeds more or less Latin America could finally once and for all take the path away from underdevelopment. Between them, all the other economies of the sub-continent would have to align their economic policies and the US would need, really need, its FTA to work out full speed with Colombia, Peru and Chile to counter somewhat the new economic colossus that could emerge. Because of course Mercosur would follow Brazil's lead and Mexico would be able to retake its natural area of influence, the Caribbean and Central America.

This is so big that one wonders how come it was not tried out earlier. I suspect that the US recession and a certain protectionist bent of the US since Obama's election must have played a role since Calderon was barely coming out of the North American summit.

I am not sure if Chavez realizes what happened today, what major geological shift suddenly started that could render Venezuela totally insignificant, but he certainly had his head elsewhere, probably up his, well, you know what...

First, the good man took his plane, a tax payer expense, to Cuba just to wish Fidel Castro a happy birthday. No word about the real presents carried to Havana, nor about how many people, all expenses paid, went along with Chavez. Maybe Chavez has accumulated enough frequent flier miles to fly for free to Cuba, including his court?

After this memory trip to a past that is reeking more and more of reactionary if anything because it has already been 50 years of standstill at Havana when the rest of the continent has moved on, Chavez came back to offer yet another old and probably dead idea: whip Obama. I suppose that he got that from Fidel who cannot live without an enemy in Washington. If Obama were a genuine friend of Cuba Fidel would still try to make him an enemy!

So today Chavez said that Obama was lost in space because he called him hypocrite for Chavez wanting him to intervene in Honduras. Note to president Obama: Dear Mr. President, Chavez is like a scorpion, it does not pay to be nice to him because he will always stab you in the back. Though the scorpion has an excuse because of the position of his tail, Chavez has none as he is merely a coward, unable to face the people he insults. In Spanish, on TV, with Chavez grimacing it is much stronger than the Reuters script I link above.

So to make sure what a reactionary throwback Chavez is at heart he went on again on the US having unseated Zelaya, putting the most formal accusation to date. Why so late Hugo? Your other arguments have failed so badly that now you have only leis left to your arsenal? Or is it that you simply cannot abandon the worn out line coming from Fidel? Is there no originality left in you now that your ship of state is having serious leaks? Why not you worry more about the PEMEX-Petrobras bond forming while you have been unable to do a PDVSA-Petrobras bond? I suppose it is because when Petrobras caught whiff of the corrupt set that manages PDVSA even the one at Pemex does not look that bad.

Anyway poor Obama gets hit from all sides, including a Wall Street Journal piece by Maria Anastasia O'Grady that includes the infamous picture of Chavez receiving Raul Castro with a military salute, quite a symbol of how passé, retrograde and reactionary the guerrilla left, the military and the the anti US cheapo rhetoric have become (1). The title, "anti American Amigos", says it all, how much at risk is the US policy in Latin America if some new thinking does not come fast at the White House (I am less concerned about State, I think the short is at the White House). You know guys, if you need help you could do worse than calling me, and I would not charge.

The future is more than ever with Lula and Calderon, not with Castro and Chavez and that accidental clown in the picture, the Kirchner fraud.

1) I cannot imagine ANY Venezuelan president in past history salute military the head of state of ANY country. Such image is enough, in my opinion to impeach Chavez. Not even because he is betraying Venezuela but for being so stupid, so lack of self worth. Bolivar must have rolled in his grave!

-The end-

UNASUR in Quito: another Chavez defeat?

So Correa assumed office today with a 40% approval rating, a ten points loss since his reelection, with an intractable conflict with Colombia, economic troubles, a break in his coalition, a dollarized economy that limits his populism and more. The only think he could come up with was a promise of more radicalization of his government and an attack on the local media. Let's not call it a regime yet, as we must give it the benefit of the doubt that a genuine new constitution will be put to work in Ecuador. But considering the history of the country we can already start wondering whether Correa will finish his term...

But I digress, the real news was UNASUR.

As we were all expecting yesterday, ALBA et al were going to try to gang up on Uribe. They tried but they did not succeed, even though Chavez broke protocol (imagine that!) and went on a speech on the "winds of war". In the end the UNASUR summit, the wanna-be NATO cum OAS for South America, failed to produce the Colombian condemnation that Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador sought so desperately. And I use the word "desperate" deliberately.

Not only that but president Lula said that dialog should be long and extensive, that the US should be included and that folks should be willing to hear hard truths. I guess that last part was meant for Chavez more than for the US and Uribe, you know....

"People will have to listen to hard truths, on the contrary UNASUR risks becoming a club of pals encircled by enemies from everywhere" [My translation]

Preliminary conclusions:

1) Uribe's tour last week seems to have been way more successful than anticipated, at least by Chavez

2) Chavez convenient (imagined?) Colombian invasion of yesterday did not help his cause. Nor did his drama queen speech. He did not get anything he wanted at Quito except a song a dance that evening by Correa's supporters.

3) Lula is taking seriously UNASUR and as yours truly told you, Lula knows that without Colombia, the second army of the subcontinent in number and quite likely the number one in readiness, UNASUR is meaningless. You can bet that he will do his utmost to force Colombia and Chavez to reach some understanding

4) Last but not necessarily least though it is too early to tell, the absence of Uribe and his foreign minister (Colombia only sent a vice minister) does not seem to have hurt him much. Within a very few weeks a new summit will be held possibly in Argentina where these questions will be discussed. On that respect the show of Chavez at Quito probably helped immensely Uribe: the BBC reports that at declaration time all presidents looked ill at ease. Chavez needs to learn that at international meeting serious heads of state are not keen to gang up on the absent unless the absent is a totally rogue regime which is very far from being the case of Colombia. Or put it in a more pedestrian way, Chavez needs to learn that international summits are not managed like a bully would manage the school yard or a boot camp.

But not is smooth sailing for Uribe, far from it. He gained a nice respite but he still has lots of work to do. At least now Chavez will be less of a pain in the neck, confined to cheap vociferation from Caracas.

Meanwhile it is not getting any better for Chavez in Honduras even though he paraded Zelaya in Quito all day long. Obama is now on the record saying that Chavez attitude in Honduras is an hypocrisy. Here are his words:

"The same critics who say that the United States has not intervened enough in Honduras are the same people who say that we're always intervening and the Yankees need to get out of Latin America"

"If these critics think that it's appropriate for us to suddenly act in ways that in every other context they consider inappropriate, then I think what that indicates is that maybe there's some hypocrisy involved in their -- their approach to U.S.-Latin American relations"

Canadian Prime Minster Stephen Harper supported the statements made by Mr. Obama, suggesting that "If I were an American, I would be really fed up with this kind of hypocrisy."

"You know, the United States is accused of meddling except when it's accused of not meddling," Harper said.

Now observe that Harper is a "right wing" politician and Obama a "left wing", at least in the reductionist mind of some and yet Harper came with this strong support. That is what is expected from true allies, from statesmen that are able to look a little bit further than what plays at home. It also seems that Obama paused briefly before using the H word. I love it....

Definitely, yet another rotten day for Chavez....


-The end-

Honduras: when the mediator becomes the problem and when clichés are the looking glass

We interrupt our coverage of Colombia to take up again our Honduras coverage. Both cases highlight well how ineffective Chavez is becoming.

In Honduras the de facto government seems well on its way to make it through to reach the next elections. We are now mid August, barely three months for the next election, which could be brought up a month earlier. Two months, even if full sanctions are imposed, is not that long to hold. Even if creeps like Moratinos of Spain say that they would not recognize elections held under Micheletti what is he going to do when a new president is sworn in and Micheletti term officially expires?

The latest maneuver consisted in sending a group of foreign ministers to Tegucigalpa and find ways to apply the Arias mediation. It seems a good idea, a group of counties that will offer themselves as the guarantors of any mediation, for example leaving monitors in Tegucigalpa that will make sure the an eventual return of Zelaya would not result in petty revenges, further constitutional violations and such things.

Well, it will not work because OAS secretary Insulza decided to head that commission even if it is absolutely clear that the Micheletti camp want nothing to do with him. So Honduras send a message today that they would not receive the commission if Insulza came along, but that they were very open to a future trip without Insulza.

"The intransigence of the secretary general in insisting he be part of the mission ... has made it impossible that the visit go ahead," Honduras' foreign ministry said in a statement.

That is right, Insulza who should be the mediator for the Americas has become the problem. And he has only himself to blame as his pictures of cozying up to the ALBA group are still in everyone memories, not to mention the incendiary words he proffered in his last very unfortunate visit to Tegucigalpa where he made things worse for ALL parts.

I am betting that this simple Honduras communique is the nail in the Insulza reelection coffin. A few countries must shiver at the idea that one day he might be the mediator of any conflict they might be involved in. Lists are probably drawn for his successor as I type.

But there are other people also that are not helping at all by writing pamphlets through news agency. The latest one of AP, reproduced by the New York Times who should know better and yet published something hardly better, is a choice piece in how to look the world through rose colored glasses, the rose being the socialist rose of course. Well, at least the NYT piece was signed by Ginger Thompson whereas the AP is unsigned and probably the result of some intern that was left alone to ma the fort on week ends...

Both pieces seem to have discovered warm water: there is a big social gap in Honduras!!!! No kidding....... And both minimize conveniently that Zelaya was elected by the "elites" that he betrayed not for the people but for his personal ambition. Let's be real here: if Zelaya really wanted to help "the people" he could have done it sitting as the president without the need to plot with Chavez. He could even had started a new political party to run for his chosen successor to continue his programs. Do I have to spell it out further?

At least the NYT is well written though we miss the hand of Romero who does manage to bring shreds of objectify from the most impossible situations. But I must repeat that the AP piece is a mere sophomoric pamphlet, sophomoric without the humor, that is. Even a recent graduate in real journalism from a serious college would not write such a simplistic sentence:

Elites across Latin America are watching the standoff closely, as they plot their own strategies to combat democratically elected presidents such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez who have demonized the wealthy as they push for a more even distribution of income.

And this is just the third sentence. Enough said!

-The end-

People that were never meant to be president of a country, even as small as Honduras

Being a president is more than just carrying a big silly wide white brim hat. Being a president also requires to know how to behave depending on where you are. Only successful demagogues like Chavez can get away with murder, and not all the time as a king may cross his path and cut him down to size.

Today we learned that Zelaya was all but expelled from Mexico after having been received with all the honors due to a head of state. In fact, the presidential guard did not allow Zelaya to speak with reporters before leaving and all but forcibly packed him and a plane to ship him back to Managua. What happened?

Well, big mouthed Zelaya thinking he is some Chavez wanna-be went to a pro-Obrador meeting and implied that you do not need to be the sitting president to feel like the real president. Calderon was not amused, the more so that Obrador party was trashed, TRASHED, by the Mexican voters at midterm elections, tied in large part of the never ending Obrador circus, a sore loser if ever there was one.

Understandably Calderon, who had to endure the rudeness of the Obrador sabotage for three years, a sabotage that certainly weakened him as he had to face real daunting tasks from drug warlords to influenza pandemic, probably making matters worse than what they should have been, was not amused that Zelaya, who he has been backing fully, who he has invited and probably paid for every expense, who received him with all the honors due a sitting head of state as the sternest possible rebuke Mexico could give to the Honduras de facto government, went to support the loser and saboteur of Obrador. Zelaya was promptly dismissed and can forget about further help from Mexico.

Another case of truth being stranger than fiction.

But we also learn a lot about Zelaya. That he is a lout. That he is arrogant. That he thinks all is due to him. That he cannot be bothered with doing elemental home to know his host quirks. That Hondurans were, well, maybe right in kicking him out as Zelaya is clearly unfit to be president of anything. This single incident almost by itself validates the Honduras coup even though probably nobody will make a big fuss out of it. After all Zelaya is like a candle burning itself down faster and faster. Why rock the boat? We are already in August, elections might be as early as late October in Honduras....

-The end-

Zelaya the Clown

UPDATED: click link below for the Edo cartoon on the same topic :)


Looks like I am not the only making the analogy between Zelaya and a bad clown. Weil in Tal cual today.

The Edo cartoon, equally priceless (hat tip Miguel)

"There we go, we got in! Uh Ah, people's victory!"

-The end-

Patricia Rodas: the woman who married Zelaya to Chavez?

UPDATED: a Rodas in the White House?

Reader Milonga brought my attention to these recent words from Patricia Rodas, ex (?) foreign minister of Zelaya, currently fluttering around to have her boss back in office:

"Un saludo a nuestro comandante Hugo Chávez. Sin él, sin su apoyo, esta repercusión mediática no habría sido posible" A salutation to our comandante Hugo Chavez. Without him, without his support, this media blitz would not have been possible. [my emphasis on the our]

As a confession of who is the real boss on Honduras moves this one is matchless.

I had heard about that woman, I had noticed already her loving words when she helped engineer the shameful lift of sanctions on Cuba a couple of months ago at the OAS meeting of San Pedro Sula. A quick search offers me two juicy pieces on her.

From an Honduran paper we can alredy see that last year she was in trouble with the Liberal party of Honduras who was maneuvering to have her removed from the direction. The causes? Her left turn without consulting with the party and her simple inability at managing it.

In English I found an interview with a Nicaraguan journalist. Asked about Patrica Roldas she has this to say:

She is a woman of the left; she has a tradition of grassroots organization. It’s she who has filled Mel Zelaya’s head with debatable initiatives, with transformation. Nobody is analyzing with depth her role in this shift made by Zelaya, who is a man that comes from the most rancid rightwing of the Honduran oligarchy.

Patricia Rodas has assembled inside the Honduran Liberal Party a group that calls itself “The Patricios,” those who have more of a social base; they have more of a tradition of popular organization. Another thing is that they were being isolated inside the Liberal Party.

This interview of Maria Lopez Vigil was published in Havana Times, a strange web page which seems unable to make up its mind about Cuba, fitting the studied ambiguity of some of Raul words. In other words, not the kind of web site you would expect to find a rather critical evaluation of the Zelaya role.

And of course that photo which shows her "interest" for Chavez.

All speculations are allowed about Ms. Roldas, from her role in Chavez Honduras involvement to whatever your febrile minds wants to think of.

UPDATE: To complement this post the Wall Street Journal brings us two articles this morning.

Maria Anastasia O'Grady writes about Greg Craig, the ex lawyer of Elian Gonzalez, who now seems to be directing the shots on Latin America. Are we seeing a potential conflict between State and and the White House brewing? It sounds that Obama has a Rodas of sorts, no?

And Micheletti gets his own say in a US paper. You like it or not but there it is. Slowly but surely people are realizing that they need to listen to someone else than the clown at the border and his sponsor.

-The end-

Zelaya in Honduras, now you see him, now you don't

Zelaya did indeed go to Honduras and stayed there for a few minutes. If you blinked you might have missed him. Tonight he is back safely into Nicaragua, sleeping in much better conditions I am sure than many of the supporters he managed to have go tot eh "entry" check point. He might keep replaying that show. Maybe next time he might take a piss on the Honduras side of the border, which would be way more symbolic of what he really wishes for the people of his country.

IF chavistas seem amused and please, if Cuban press talk of "popular mobilizations", they certainly were not big enough to have the military desist of blocking the entry of Zelaya, and arrest him had he persisted. "Abril 13" it was not no mater how hard chavismo tried to replicate the 2002 legend. And it might never be as some people are starting to investigate whether some of these Zelaya "supporters" are paid to attend, chavismo style.

On the other hand Secretary Clinton did not mid saying that Zelaya was reckless, meaning not about himself but about the fate of the people for which welfare he was supposed to care.

Meanwhile someone in a major paper finally decided to write in English a complete summary of the recent Honduras story. Even coming from the WSJ, one is very hard pressed to find words to defend Zelaya criticizing the author, Jose Cordoba. The more so that Cordoba has written impeccable articles on Venezuela. Why would he lie on Honduras when what he wrote about Chavez and Venezuela was worse? But Zelaya is a clown, a manipulated one at that, and Cordoba makes you realize that without a doubt.

If you prefer to read a more confused view on the situation you can read the CNN report of this new farcical day. Well, at least they stopped briefly glossing on every fart of Zelaya on his way to mention that there was an anti Zelaya popular meeting in San Pedro Sula. I do not know about you but even as a Liberal I greatly enjoy myself watching an alleged Liberal media tie itself in knots defending an autocrat without defending it. Because let's face it, the relative incoherence of CNN probably does more to make you question Zelaya's motives than the straight shooting Cordoba piece. Ironic, no?

PS: I was forgetting! The "ass of the day award" does not go to Zelaya, believe it or not. It goes to Miguel D'escoto, the ex guerrilla from Nicaragua who now serves as the current chair of the UN assembly (a rotating post of no big significance). He said that Zelaya should get extra days in his term to compensate for those he lost in exile. See, this the kind of "mediators" that are put in charge at the UN; people that should know better and who actually make matters worse. And then the UN wants respect....

-The end-