Thursday, September 10, 2009

To Primary or not to Primary

Apparently my esteemed colleague Juan Cristobal is endorsing strongly Leopoldo Lopez call for a opposition primary. Something who is also a choice of my other esteemed colleague Miguel.

Well, I am not so sure, though I agree that a dose of primary would do much good to the opposition, if anything to create and train the supervising teams that will be needed to control all the CNE abuses coming our way.

I am not going to go into full details because I already broached extensively the subject late June. Since I am tired after a long road trip this post is really a way to bring back to the forth my previous post and participate in the current debate: it is as current today as it was two months ago. However I will add at the end of this post the Mini Petkoff Tal Cual of Wednesday which in Spanish summarizes my position well.

Just a note on why Leopoldo is so adamant about primaries: because he thinks that through such a system he could create his very own movement. He thinks he has coattails even if those were not as strong as he expected them to be in Chacao last November where his candidate won but not by the large margins Leopoldo had hoped. Just like Chavez, whatever popularity they benefit, coattails are never a sure thing. However the damage that Leopoldo could inflict if he becomes stubborn on that issue is a sure thing. Needless to say that I am not on board with him on that one, at least as he is presenting it right now. But if he wants to know more about the out of Caracas politics he could do worse than consulting with me :)


¿Tarjeta única?

Por ahí anda una de esas proposiciones, en el fondo bizantinas, sobre la necesidad de una tarjeta única de los partidos opositores, para las elecciones parlamentarias.

La idea parece atractiva, pero equivale a colocar la carreta delante de los bueyes. Para que haya una tarjeta única es imprescindible, condición sine qua non, que la oposición alcance una alianza perfecta para sus candidaturas. Si no se da una alianza perfecta, esto es, listas únicas y unitarias en cada uno de los estados y candidatos únicos y unitarios en cada uno de los circuitos electorales, no es posible una tarjeta única. Si no hay candidatos únicos, no es posible tarjeta única.

Pero si la alianza perfecta se produce, como es indispensable (porque de lo contrario, no hay vida), entonces la tarjeta única no hace falta porque cualquiera de ellas sirve para votar por candidatos que son comunes a todos los partidos. Las distintas tarjetas cubren los mismos nombres en cada estado y cada circuito. Claro que si se diera una alianza perfecta, una tarjeta única que las cubra no sería mala idea, pero existen intereses muy legítimos de fuerzas políticas que quieren medir su propia evolución electoral. Y éste es un interés muy respetable. Otra idea bizantina que anda por ahí es reducir solamente a elecciones primarias el mecanismo de selección de candidatos. ¿Por qué sólo ese? ¿Por qué descartar de antemano la posibilidad de que en distintos sitios existan candidatos indiscutibles, sobre los cuales todo el mundo podría acordarse sin mayor discusión? El sentido común pareciera indicar que, tanto los acuerdos como las primarias e incluso las encuestas, son todos mecanismos a la disposición de la implementación del acuerdo electoral unitario.

¿Por qué crear esa oposición artificial entre primarias y cualquier otro método? Van a perdonar a este minicronista que se meta a opinar en esta materia pero es que hay veces que siento que alguna gente en el mundo político opositor suele confundir la gimnasia con la magnesia e introduce elementos polémicos arbitrarios y, además, perjudiciales.

-The end-

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