Sunday, May 01, 2011

Is the opposition alliance already tanking?

There is real cause for concern: all the signals the opposition alliance against Chavez, MUD, has been giving for the past two months are extremely worrisome.  There is no hiding the harsh truth on that.  In fact, I am starting to suspect that the silence form the MUD is due to the inability to keep up their negotiations and reach regularly some agreements.  In other words, the MUD is silent because it is about to break up.

And even worse, the political situation is changing as the Venezuelan barrel of oil is crossing the 100USD mark which is going to give Chavez a few months of respite.  He is showing all signs to use it the best way he can: consolidate his following through hand outs and thus create again a new aura of promises that might be fulfilled.  If he goes unchecked and if oil holds above 90 USD until at December 2011, he will simply walk away with the election in 2012.  True, it will not be a sweeping away victory as in 2006, not even a strong cheating enhanced victory as in 2004, but Chavez will take a 52 to 48 victory without any misgivings and surf ahead in his mad project for Venezuela.

We must realize that the Venezuelan people is not basically democratic and that in spite of civilian governments since 1958, "el pueblo" has never left its longing for the strong authoritarian leader, a tradition going as far in time as the Indian Cacique, the Quilombo Chief, or the merciless Spanish Conquistador.  It is our culture, we were never democrats and the so call democracy of 1958-1998 was just a pseudo democracy where a mild dictator was elected for 5 yeas, softened further by a semi separation of powers and a relative free press with little consequences.  Let's not fool ourselves.  And if you disagree with me let me remind you that were the Venezuelan people real democrats they would have never reelected Chavez in 2006, and they would have even less given him the eternal reelection referendum of 2009.  A true democrat cannot vote for a Chavez style of administration, period.

And thus even with 52% Chavez will be able to pursue his road to destruction for Venezuela that will end up inevitably in civil war and loss of independence.  The opposition needs yet to show us it understands that, and that it is able to provide arguments to rally all democrats and to convince enough pseudo democrats to abandon the regime.  Let's be clear on another thing: if a 52% victory is enough for Chavez, the opposotion needs a bigger margin if it wants a chance to resist the sabotage and cheating of the regime.

Unfortunately for us, the few democrats that are around, maybe a 20% of the Venezuelan population, the MUD has not given any serious hint that it s grasping the changing electoral context.  Besides the pious wishes for unity, there is nothing coming from the MUD since the unity motto of 2010.

For example, the opposotion representatives elected last yer have simply fallen to the parliamentary game even though the National Assembly has been all but voided through the enabling law.  What these people should have done, since they could not perform properly in the National assembly, was to take the streets, to visit government projects to verify their execution, to crate all sorts of media events.  Instead they are doing, well, I do not know what they are doing besides worrying about who will be the next opposition presidential candidate.  Note, all opposition representatives are not worthless, but the bulk of them is, demonstrating that the "negotiated" nominations for the 2010 election was more a way to give a few people a job and steady income rather than making them articulate defenders of freedom.  I dare you to cite 20 names of the National Assembly right now, form the top of your head, as to events they have made notorious in the last three months.  I can, but I cannot name 30, and even less visualize the face of the other 40.  And I am kind of a political wonk.

Preparing the election of 2012 has not been very successful.  With great pain a date of February 12 has finally been fixed, pleasing no one except the dinosaurs of AD, PVzl. UNT...  This would not be so bad if for example we had already the first draft of primary contest rules.  Or if we had been introduced to a commission of 20 guys to write the post Chavez initiatives of government.  But all of that is still clouded in mystery, we are been told that progress is made, and that is that.  As far as I can tell only Primero Justicia and Voluntad  Popular are already working actively in preparation for 2012, starting with the beginning: organizing their bases rather than bemoaning Chavez while discussing the sex of angels or of the next presidential candidate.  The image projected by the MUD is that of a group of people working harder at barring certain candidates than promoting a promising union candidate.

And I am naming names, starting with Salas Romer who was the main artifice of the primary postponement I suppose in the hope to see primaries fail and himself become the dark horse candidate.  Continuing with Rosales who cannot understand that his time has passed and that not winning his home state in 2006 is an unforgivable sin in an electoral career.  And going through AD who being without a candidate is trying to see which one of Ledezma and Rosales or even Perez will give them the more town halls and governorships in 2012, and hell with Miraflores.

It is not too late yet.  The MUD needs to understand clearly that it needs to bulk up on the basic ingredient to win an election: raise the trust of its electorate, motivate it.  This can still be done but there is no time to waste anymore.  Within the next three months, and I am not kidding, I really mean by August, the opposition needs to have come up with:

- primary rules, so that the primary campaign can start in earnest, distracting the country from the constant repetitive messages of Chavez in his endless cadenas.

- a country project, not a government program.  That is, a project that will answer questions such as: will we have a decentralized state where people can find solutions at the local level or depend from Caracas?  Will we have a real police even if repressive, with adequate jails and fair tribunals?  Will we have a private sector that will be able to create real jobs?  Will we have social programs that actually work and are designed really for the people that are supposed to be benefited with instead of being a den of corruption?  Will we spend our money on Cuba and weapons or on Venezuela?  Etc...

- a reply system to the regime abuses.  That is, the MUD needs to have specific groups of people that are authorized to speak in its name on different group of issues.  This people not only will seek the press to counter any of Chavez idiocy, but will be crisscrossing the country as needed.  And more importantly, they will provide ALL primary candidates with regular studied replies so that they can all use those they want to counter Chavez propaganda without major cacophony.

- National Assembly members actively on the road, monitoring the government actions, taking risks if needed, showing us all that they mean business and that they will be on the front line if things get ugly in 2012.  Invited or not they should show up to evaluate housing projects of the regime, ministries, Mercal, hospitals, etc... and if the authorities refuse to let them in, they should make sure the media record the scenes and let the people know that the regime is hiding things.  How come they have not started that already, on a weekly basis at the very least? 

If someone has a better idea on how to develop the motivation of the opposotion electorate and how to seduce it with a "can do" attitude the wavering chavista vote, please, be my guest, I will let you publish an article in this blog.  But right now, yours truly is already having visions of himself salvaging the MUD candidate, working for a Chavez victory so as to once and for all sweep away that mentality inside the MUD that cannot learn, that makes Chavez bed on a daily basis.

It is true that I may be over-pessimistic, that no matter how high oil prices are the the system set by Chavez now can never have enough money to make its machine run, that in a few months people may get really sick and tired of the overbearing media presence of Chavez.  But we cannot count on that, and definitively if all of that were to happen, if Chavez keeps adding more errors, it is still not enough for the MUD to win on that mere basis. Yes, the MUD has some early starting advantages but what I see is that we are wasting them steadily.

Oh! nulla! È il vino che mi ha suggerito!

11 comments:

  1. Anonymous1:51 PM

    cono q arrecho, ahora todos los zulianos, los que militamos en UNT, o le damos nuestro voto, casi el 80% de los electores opositores del Zulia, Somos una cuerda de dinosaurios, ex adecos, y lo peor zulianos, defecto anti presidenciable puesto en uso por los pseudo-intelectuales en la red en este ultimo ano (ojo, pero cuidado, no es xenofobia es que los maracuchos son muy raros)
    Ja sigan asi, construyendo pais... sigan creyendo que pueden ganar las presidenciales echandonos a un lado.
    Sigan creyendo y venerando a San Primero justicia, los recien nacidos que no salieron de ningun partido, donde todos son jovensitos y perfectos candidatos... y lo mejor de todo caraquenos.
    Ya me parece aberrante, en la forma como le echan mierda a un partido, pero es muchisimo mas que sus dirigentes...
    Pero buehh que se puede hacer, asi esta la venezuela de hoy en dia.
    pero sigan asi... que van por buen camino...

    Que desgracia ser zuliano y pertenecer a UNT, ni he cumplido 30, pero ya soy un dinosaurio... que desgracia que no naci en caracas y milito en Primero justicia para poder ser perfecto.

    ReplyDelete
  2. anónimo

    por favor, indica en donde he criticado a Pablo Perez. tambien indica en donde he escrito que mi candidato es Capriles. es mas, indica donde he indicado cual es mi candidato para la oposición.

    criticar a maniobras dentro de la MUD no es lo mismo que extrapolar como tu lo haces que UNT tiene que desaparecer. UNT es un partido neo-adeco como PJ es neo-copeyano, que le guste a la gente o no. no hay nada de malo en ser neo-algo con tal que la intención sea mejorar el algo ese.

    las sórdidas maniobras dentro de la MUD se deben a Rosales, AD y Salas Romer (hasta donde yo sepa pero seguro hay mas). si UNT se presta a esas maniobras también hay que decirlo. y no tiene nada que ver con ser anti maracucho.

    para tu información te sugiero que visites los archives de este blog en 2006 cuando le di todo mi apoyo a Rosales una vez que le se convirtió en candidato de la oposición, un apoyo que de paso me valió una enemistad con otros de los "pseudo intelectuales de la red" que no lograron supera su desdén de Rosales.

    lo que pasa es que la hora de Rosales pasó, y si UNT quiere crecer tiene que ponerse las pilas, demarcarse de AD y poner a Perez al frente. o sino ni neo-adeco van a ser, solo adecos reencauchados.

    ReplyDelete
  3. kernel_panic3:53 PM

    Totalmente de acuerdo con todo lo dicho en el post, PEEEEEEEERO, tristemente creo que habrá que archivar esto en la categoria "I told you so - post 2012". Ojala me equivoque!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Very good post.
    When I was a teenager, Daniel, I thought Venezuela was THE democratic country in Latin America, in spite of the fact I was already aware of how dysfunctional it was (my parents would tell me). But it was just an ilusion: Venezuelans have a Spanish Middle Age attitude combined with a Carib and I would say a Otomaco set of mind (for further information about the Otomacos, please read the article in Spanish I wrote in WIkipedia).


    UNT is indeed still Acción Democrática 1.2
    And the Salas-Feo clan is a disgrace.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I hope you are wrong, Daniel. If the MUD cracks up, I fully expect its leaders to end up all in prison; you either hang together,or you hang separately.

    It's going to be a totalitarian state unless the MUD stays together.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Marypuchy5:28 PM

    Venezuela is so screwed......... "run for the hills." (get out now)

    I was there two weeks ago with a six month absense...... it is so worse now..... Unbelievable!

    Honestly, I could care less if I ever return. It is getting very bad!

    Sad but true!

    Wake up people please! Enough talk.........

    Marypuchy

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous5:38 PM

    Aqui todos estamos de acuerdo en que la hora de Rosales ya paso, eso esta claro, que el mantengan sus intenciones de ser candidato (cuando obviamente no lo podrá ser, es cuestión de el y unos pocos dirigentes del partido) no es mas que una maniobra política de rosales, para seguir haciendo bulla (como diría el)... el problema es que al parecer solo el y barboza son el partido, según ustedes, por ellos dos, todos somos una cuerda de neo-adecos dinosaurios...
    Existe un movimiento antizuliano y anti unt en parte de la oposición venezolana, eso se ha notado en todos los medios de oposicionista (noticias24, globovision, etc) eso se vio claramente en las ultimas elecciones regionales de diciembre en la forma como atacaron a eveling y en la forma como alabaron como un dios, a un candidato EMBUSTERO, que obligo a q se hicieran unas primarias por que supuestamente el estaba ganando y después termina con un mediocre 30% de los votos,(aqui mismo en este blog, se menciono como algo que reconocer, que guanipa llego en un Honorable segundo lugar, en unas primarias entre solo DOS candidatos) y para rematar, tiene el cinismo de decir, que esos resultados se debieron a la "gran maquinaria" electoral de UNT, es decir, aquí todos somos unos pendejos que votamos por el que nos digan que tenemos que votar, tal cual chavistas pues. como si a todos nos obligaran a votar por UNT, muy facil se puede votar por otro partido, pero por que la gran mayoria de los opositores zulianos, confiamos y le damos nuestro voto a UNT? que,
    para desgracia de ustedes, es el unico partido politico que se da el lujo de ser el mas votado en algun estado de venezuela por ensima del psuv.

    Yo lo que siento, con todos estos ataques de la pseudo intelectualidad de la web en contra de los zulianos, es que a la final nos van a terminar alienando, y muchos se quedaran preguntando si no ira a ser igual de centralizata que chavez, el candidato de la caracas es caracas y lo demas monte y culebra... el de el perfecto partido politico de los angeles reencarnados primero justicia.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous, I agree with you on the dinosaur meme.

    "los recien nacidos que no salieron de ningun partido, donde todos son jovensitos y perfectos candidatos... y lo mejor de todo caraquenos. "

    Young or old...this is not the important factor.

    Applying memes keeps us from thinking creatively.

    The opposition is so entrenched in dividing itself through the use of these memes, that it is no wonder Chavez has the power.Just imagine: the dinosaurs plus the past and current followers of dinosaurs are OUT.All the "Maria Alejandra Lopezes" as well( quite a few ).Oh, and the sifrino meme is doing huge damage to MCM also :(

    Then you have the useless meme that the opposition is worse than or just as bad as Chavez.

    Add this meme cocktail to the fact that almost nobody confronts the super relevant factor of fear in all its manifestations, nor studies its consequences and the opposition's masochistic- self- hatred expressed as perfectionism when it comes to pointing out the fact that there are actually some oppo candidates who refuse to allow Chavez to frame the game

    and bingo: Chavez wins.

    Geez, Chavez should not even be called a candidate.He's the principle one not following the rules of anything even remotely democratic.

    ReplyDelete
  9. anónimo maracucho

    me vas a perdonar pero siento en ti una paranoia injustificada, por lo menos en este blog.

    no quiero polemizar contigo, pero con 30% es un resultado honorable en cualquier eleccion, con dos o sopotocientos candidatos. yo, personalmente, ni me va no me viene que guanipa o trejo sean alcalde de maracaibo.

    segundo, este blog es seguramente pro zuliano aunque tu pienses lo contrario. te invito a leer, por ejemplo, el post que le dedique de una manera exclusiva al zulia para las parlamentarios del año pasado.

    http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2010/08/2010-election-predictions-zulia.html

    si después de leer esto todavía piensas que yo soy anti zuliano, entonces ya el problema es tuyo, no mio. te voy a recordar que yo NO ESCRIBO DESDE CARACAS, y que lo que hace mi blog algo diferente es que justamente reporto mucho mas lo que pasa en la provincia que otros blogs, en inglés o en cristiano, for that matter. mal puedo yo desde san felipe promover a primero justicia en maracaibo cuando en otra entrada de mi blog critiqué severamente a primero justicia sobre el desastre que provoco en yaracuy en el 2008.

    http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2008/11/2008-venezuelan-results-3-yaracuy-as.html

    ReplyDelete
  10. Anonymous10:25 PM

    Extremely OT: according to both CNN.com and foxnews.com, Osama Bin Laden is dead.

    Let's see if it's true and what Hugolin The First has to say about that.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Juan Cristobal8:41 AM

    Eso de que UNT = maracucho es el reduccionismo de un subnormal. Yo soy maracucho, y bien rajao piaso'e bolsa, y ni de vaina voto por UNT. Asi que sacude!

    ReplyDelete

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