Electoral note 2: cheating and less abstention

Did I not tell you that electoral cheating would be brought up a notch today?  Coming back from voting I learned through twitter and the web that the vicious Vice held a "press conference" which had to be condemned by the lone CNE ranger still with some ethical positions.  Maduro stopped his TV apparition but we are told that maybe there will be a communique from Havana in a few minutes.  Now the dead not only vote but call to vote for them....

On other matters. I went to vote, THE LAST one of my close family, including those who are now in Maiquetia waiting for their flight and went early this morning to vote. Then again I wanted to go late to see what was up with the local participation  I am pleased to tell you that in my voting center, perhaps the most anti Chavez of Yaracuy, participation was reaching 50% and people were still trickling in. This is actually "normal" and proven that the abstention talk is mostly a parlor game of the idiots in Caracas.  Let's hope I am proved right.

Electoral note 1: abstention galore

As promised, no election day post, no continuous coverage in deep. But still, an occasional electoral note like this first one.

The news so far is a massive abstention at least in urban centers allegedly favorable to the opposition. There is also abstention in chavista areas but let's not forget that they have a "bring in the vote machinery" that should allow them to bring in more voters than the opposition. In other words, at noon we are in a 3+1 scenario for the opposition (see previous post).

So right now we have twitter filled with people begging oppo folks to go an vote. I do not know how many chavista twitterers of doom are there since I do not follow that garbage and no one has retwitted them.

The December 16 electoral post

I suppose I should write about the Sunday elections. After all, this blog has probably written some of the most comprehensive coverage of Venezuelan recent elections. Maybe not the best but certainly most comprehensive, from pre-electoral numbers to detailed analysis. But times have changed and after realizing how wretched a country we were on October 7, I really had little stomach for more.  For those new here I suggest that they review, for example and corresponding to next Sunday, past work on the 2008 regional elections and the analysis of their results. I know how to do it, if I wanted to or if I thought it important or necessary.

And it did not get better. In addition of the 55% of Chavez we must add a good chunk of opposition idiots, true idiots, who think that we should not vote anymore until the CNE does not guarantee us clean elections. That is, in my current mood no more than 20% of Venezuelans should have the right to vote, and this after passing a test where in, say, 5 simple questions they should be able to say something about each major candidate and the issues they cover (1). But I should stop myself before I get even more accusations of elitism, anti democracy, etc, etc... thrown at me. Those critics, many by the way who are ready to swear that Venezuela is a democracy (just wait for my review on the Afiuni book soon to come in these pages).  But I digress and I should write about Sunday's vote.

Renewed political instability in Venezuela

The departure of Chavez for Cuba yesterday in what could well be a no return trip is sending Venezuela into a probable tail spin of political unrest. The reason is very simple: not only Chavez death is not a certainty and that by itself is already a majorly perturbing element, but both sides of the political spectrum are deeply divided.

Chavez left, hinting that he may not be back and naming a successor in the person of Vice President Nicolas Maduro. Had Nicolas Maduro  been an elected vice president then there would be no questions asked: we would be waiting for the demise of Chavez and Maduro could finish the term. But in the now well proven deficient Constitution of 1999 the Vice president is appointed and thus the only legitimacy it has is Chavez blessing. Granted, in what is become a religious movement this is a lot but it is not enough. To compound this it is clear that as long as Chavez is conscious he could well replace the vice president. The consequence is that all inside chavismo will pay a lip service allegiance to Maduro until Chavez passes. Then the real show begins. Let's keep in mind that inside chavismo we have powerful factions that are only herded together through Chavez ferule.  I will mention the main ones: the narco traffickers, the obscenely rich bolibourgeois, the talibanic left, the liberals who think that it is time to be more realistic, and Giordani.

"el voto entubado" or how irrelevant our political system has become

Days keep passing and my pessimism does not lift much. In fact, even if the opposition were to manage about 10 states next December, I doubt it would cheer me up much.  To give you an idea why I remain so despondent let's talk today about "voto entubado", the latest gimmick of the electoral board, CNE, to favor Chavez camp.

Capriles asking all for Primero Justicia

In the US elections are complicated and the political culture is deliberately oriented towards a two party system, tempered through a vigorous primary activity. Since in some counties even the dog catcher is up for election so it makes sense that complex voting machines have a lever which pulls the votes for all the nominees of a given political party. Not that I approve of the measure but it sorts of forces the voters to assume their responsibility to either make their educated choice for all spots on the ballot, or support their party through and through, or just decide the top of the ticket is alone worth their care.

But in Venezuela this does not apply because the political aim is for diversity and thus the electoral system is supposedly designed to introduce a dose of proportional representation.  This constitutional provision like so many others has been undone. I am not going to go into the details on how this was achieved, plenty of posts exist on this respect. One, for example, was to have a proportion of Representatives at state level elected on a proportional basis guaranteeing that any group with, say, 20% of the vote, will get at least one seat. Furthermore the winner of the district seats were penalized at the level of state wide list seats to make sure minor groups would get a vote in the elected assembly. This has, again, all been undone, the CNE allowing fake political parties and alliances by majority groups to squeeze out minority groups, amen of extensive gerrymandering and what not.  Thus now, the opposition has been forced into alliances to make sure that they would at least get a few guys elected while Chavez party PSUV is constantly trying to absorb the fringe left into this fold, through good will or electoral shutting up.

Chavez and the December 16 elections

It is certain that the sudden departure of Chavez for Cuba (on a stretcher?) has to have implications for the regional elections of December 16. So many parameters are affected that these elections are perhaps more unpredictable than ever.  And also the hoped for demise of Chavez makes me realize that I should pay more attention to things and that maybe my writing days are not over. But I digress.

First things first. Let's look at what factors are affecting the current campaign and then let's make an educated guess at possible scenarios.

The state races heat up

In spite of my stinky mood about upcoming local elections there was a silly poll, but by DATOS, that lifted a little bit my heavy heart. After all it was to be expected that the poor choice of chavista candidates and its ever reluctance to talk issues preferring to go towards a new "constituyente" had to exact a toll on chavismo.  I thus went back to an October 23 speculation/gut feeling table to which I added the Datos polls and a poll for Aragua, then I came up with a new gut feeling.  Explanations follow.

But before we survey let's remember that the opposition is going with a great handicap: the recent reelection of Chavez which in theory should benefit his side. To this we must add the debilitating settling of scores for the defeat and the knowledge that chavismo has a more powerful electoral machinery than we suspected it had. In this regard, any prediction for December 16 is hazardous and whatever you read below (or elsewhere for that matter) is equal parts reality and wishful thinking.

Let's start with the red states October 23, those that there is no doubt will go for Chavez though we are eagerly waiting to see if he repeats his October % there. Note: order of states is from the one with the most abstention on October 7 to the one with the least abstention, Merida.

Some days I want to cover the elections and most days I do not want to

I wrote a single post on the December regional elections hinting that I may not want to cover further than what I did, silly arithmetic prediction included. But the debacle in the chavistas candidate "nomination" process is so tempting...  then again the ongoing slow motion suicide of the opposition keeps apace so why bother covering what may be the final set up of the totalitarian regime of Chavez whose end can only come through open rebellion? Started by chavistas themselves, mind you!

Let's start with the chavista mess.

Del abstencionismo, el "no hubo fraude" y otras estupideces

Primero permitanme aclarar mi propia actitud: si bien estoy decepcionado con muchas cosas, NO VOY A DEJAR DE VOTAR. Dejar de votar es una estupidez. Punto.

Now what? December troubles

Properly this post should not be included in this series but since the December result will impinge on some of the stuff discussed earlier, it is best to put it here. In two parts, that is: one part about the importance of the election and the second part as the only prediction I will do on that matter.

The first thing we need to understand is that the opposition needs a good score because it needs at least 8-10 governors to be able to launch a counter attack against any of the measures that chavismo is preparing. If you doubt it, this week already the regime has decided that "communal councils" will be allowed into the class room to see whether the teacher teaches what they like, and, well, substitute parents if they must. This is just a test balloon of things to come. Evil knows no rest.....

Unfortunately I do not see it happening.  Below I describe the most optimist scenario I could come up with.

FLASH INFORMATIVO: Resultados de las primarias del PSUV

En senda rueda de prensa el Presidente del PSUV, Don Diosdado Cabello, anuncio los esperados resultados de la primarias del PSUV para cargos a gobernador a disputarse con los majunches electos en sus primarias el mes de febrero, que todos sabemos fueron manipuladas y con una falta de tramparencia total. No dejó de sorprender a la prensa invitada lo acertado de las decisiones soberanas de los 10 millones de miembros del PSUV en esta gloriosa jornada democrática electoral del PSUV, asombrosa por su eficiencia y rapidez.

Entre los elevados a tan gran honor se destacan algunos próceres de la revolución:

¿Ustedes quieren hablar de fraude? Pues hablemos…

El fraude estaba montado en el mismo tarjetón, con todas las tarjetas de Chávez arriba. Por lo tanto para votar para Chávez había que inclinarse algo hacia adelante y con los parabanes demasiados bajos eso se podía ver muy fácil.

The 2012 Prez results: Crystal ball gazers' Waterloo

Certainly before I write anything analytic on Sunday's numbers I need to make my mea culpa if I want to rescue any shred of credibility I may have left.

The October 7 election day post

21:50

Apparently we lost. As I predicted, a high participation favors Chavez. And it was high, very high.

Why Capriles should win and why Chavez could still manage to hold to his chair

The Venezuelan campaign of 2012 will be for the history books before we know the results. Beyond opinion polls and considerations of momentum, at this late in the game all is possible, from Capriles winning by a mini landslide to Chavez becoming, with all of his aging bloatedness, the come back kid.  How is that possible?

The Capriles campaign has been brilliant, considering all the obstacles

VN&V final predictions for October 7

Really...  as if pandemonium could still not happen until next Sunday [deep sigh].

But here they are, my last predictions if possible, where I give Capriles 540,000 more votes than Chavez. That means that with a 25% abstention Capriles would get around 7.3 million votes to Chavez 6.7 million. In percentage that would be 51,4% to Chavez 47,6% and the rest to minor guys.

Details next.

An emotional moment in Venezuelan history

Va, pensiero, sull'ali dorate;
va, ti posa sui clivi, sui colli,
ove olezzano tepide e molli
l'aure dolci del suolo natal!

For a long battered opposition it has been the sweetest of days, charged with promises as we have not had in a long time. And I am not minding merely a change of president. After more than a decade of serious punishment  where all received that curse, even those who received a prize, we have sensed this afternoon that we payed our dues, that we may have made penance for our mistakes and maybe we are ready for the promised land, for atonement.

The biggest electoral march / rally / event in the history of the Americas

The official Reuters picture of the Bolivar avenue, from the back. The stand is far in the horizon. On the right is the stream arriving from the East of Caracas, all the way through Plaza Venezuela, Solano and Miranda avenues

As I put in a tweet that has been re-tweeted a few times, I dare anyone to prove me wrong  that there has not been in the electoral history of the Americas a event of such amplitude. I am not quite ready to put "political event" since some confused revolutions can bring boatloads of people in the streets. I can assure you of one thing, from past experience in Venezuela, today Capriles has put AT LEAST a million and a half people in the streets of Caracas. What you see in the opening picture is the Bolivar avenue which can contain if absolutely full, like today, about 150,000 folks. But those are the ones that came early, for hours people tried to come and go, or just walk a portion of the different set routes. The Libertador, the Solano, the Miranda, the San Martin avenues were full, and more. For hours.


Below some of the pictures sent by readers, for your enjoyment. Internet in San Felipe has been EXCRUCIATINGLY SLOW today so I had to give up on some edit and maybe have not received all the pics I was supposed to receive. Update later as needed. I only identify readers with initials. IF you want your name complete, put it in the comments :)

When Chavez recognizes his defeat: tales of a rudderless campaign

Yesterday we had two quite extraordinary events that really reflect how bad is Chavez doing and how clueless he has become.  In chronological order.

Chavez had the bad idea to make a provocation in Monagas. True, it was the state where he was the most voted in 2006, I think, but after the major PDVSA oil spill over in Maturin's drinking water and the clumsy attempt at the regime to hide the ecological crime and force people to drink it anyway, he all but lost the state. That is, it might still be chavista enough for him to squeak a 1% victory but with the governor running against him now, and a lot of the local pols that know better, Chavez chances are dim.

Breaking news! Consultores 21 ratifies electoral findings of VN&V

The last poll before election of Consultores 21 is out and as expected the rise of Capriles kept going on and now he is leading OUTSIDE of the error margin of 2,7%. Capriles is now leading  48,9 to 45,7. That is 3,2%. Incidentally my spread number on September 17 was 2,2 for Capriles. Thus my conservative number being below the one of Consultores 21, I am happy.