Friday, October 14, 2011

A quickie electoral round up

When you combine bad internet services and concern at your government trying to screw your business on the flimsiest of grounds, you stay one week without posting. But things are advancing and sooner than I expected it is time for a mini primary vote round up.  In no particular order.

Capriles makes his official launch


So last Wednesday Capriles Radosnki, Miranda governor, the most consolidated primary candidate so far, did his formal electoral launch.  Nothing much to report there.  I did try to cover the launch like I did the one of Leopoldo Lopez, pulling my strings (and a good one) but apparently PJ does stuff on its own and it did not work out.  Too bad because I was in Caracas, in good spirits and thus I would have been able to attend and report on the mood (the content I leave it to the press and press releases).

If I do not mind sitting through a speech when I attend an event I am afraid that watching a video of the event is beyond my energy.  The more so that when reading the papers one of the main promises of Capriles is to preserve the best Chavez programs.  Huh?  There are actually good Chavez programs? (1)

I suppose the point here is that Primero Justicia has decided to lurch decidedly on the "left" to beat Chavez.  It works so far in that it gained the support of the left inside la Unidad (PODEMOS; CausaR).  And it could well work in October 2012.  But in February 2012?

I find Capriles a very acceptable candidate, earnest, hard working, smart on local issues, even though his foreign policy credentials are raw to say the least (Chavez were even rawer you may argue...).  If he wins in February I certainly will endorse him without a single hesitation for October.  But in February I want to vote for a candidate that is at least able to convey that he grasps the extent of the mess the country is in, even if he switches to a "I love chavistas" for the October show.  There is one thing with the electoral positioning, and another thing with gaining the trust in the candidate's ability to face the music....  And I am afraid to say that I do not feel that in Capriles so far.

Still, the man is running now and he went right there to Tachira to pick up the remains of Perez Vivas.

COPEI keeps its slide into oblivion

One does not know what to make of the left overs of COPEI.  With three presidential candidates and maybe 5% of the electorate one wondered about any common sense left there.  But now that two have withdrawn, one makes even less sense of COPEI whose remaining candidate, Eduardo Fernandez, is a near shoo in for latest place in February.

Earlier this week Cesar Perez Vivas, Tachira governor, finally saw the light and decided to do what is best: return to his state house and work for his reelection which is seriously compromised as the regime wants real, real bad to recover that state next year.  It is not that he has lost the state yet, but any longer in his ridicule presidential search was soon going to have an effect.  So, considering that he will be back in charge a full year in San Cristobal in what is a mercurial anti Chavez state, all presidential candidates eyes are turned on Perez Vivas to court his support for February.  Amusingly, it looks that Perez Vivas can offer more primary votes than COPEI by itself.....

Leopoldo has a good week

While all of these realignments were taking place Leopoldo Lopez received good news from Hinterlaces pollsters.  That is, he would be ahead of the race.  I doubt it.  Apparently the poll was a quickie phone poll and the rise of Leopoldo might be as much a sympathy show for his victory in the Inter Americana Court as Chavez cancer gave him a bounce of sorts in polls.  The kind of leads and drops we are seeing a lot of in, say, the GOP primaries.

Still, since Leopoldo has still not managed to get another party endorsement (2) he needs all the help he can.  And he is helping himself, boldly going to popular alleged chavista districts of Caracas.

Pablo Perez is stirring

Leopoldo is not the only one in Caracas hot districts, even Pablo Perez is hitting the "barrios" of Caracas.  But what he is waiting more is for the endorsement of COPEI and AD which would put the other runners in trouble.  But as already reported, the more AD and COPEI wait the more irrelevant their support becomes....  They are waiting too much for their alliances and formal launches as 3 are already running hard, with TV ads even.  If by November 1st Pablo Perez is still courting AD, they could well both become toast no matter how much Tal Cual supports him.  At this point his lone chance would be for Chavez to allow Leopoldo to run as he splits his votes more with Capriles than with Perez.  But I am afraid for him that if Leopoldo is not allowed to run Capriles will have the race pocketed by December....

Note: since Leopoldo has pissed off equally UNT and PJ, he can equally bargain his support with anyone of them.  It is the paradox that Chavez and AD attempts at minimizing Leopoldo might turn him into the king maker........

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1) We must note that the success of Capriles do not stop chavismo from presenting him as a failure even though his "failures" are due to active sabotage by the regime.  But no one will ever accuse chavismo of ethical behavior...

2) When Leopoldo was in Yaracuy last week there were plenty of "Convergencia" banners.  Even though it is a near dead movement, its endorsement could carry Yaracuy in the primaries (but certainly not in October).  But lo' and behold, Convergencia decided to support Pablo Perez....

9 comments:

  1. Good post Daniel:

    Sorry to hear about your troubles with the regime. Take heart, it will be over soon!

    I believe Leopoldo is in a pretty good spot as a kingmaker, he has mostly upside.

    I think your use of the word "lurch" to describe PJ is quite apropos!

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  2. re: lurch

    I try :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. I enjoyed this summary, Daniel, and I look forward to PP's 'lanzamiento oficial'.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Capriles needs to do whatever possible to get elected .
    He needs a Hope and Change agenda , even if he lies , just as Obama did to get elected ( re:pulloout of Iraq , Afghanistan and Guantanamo ) .
    It is the only way to advance in politics -- his agenda came come next

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  5. Anonymous10:29 AM

    Que vivan las primarias y lo más pronto posible. Capriles esta haciendo campaña que esperan los demás ? o es que no estan unidos? Tomen ejemplo sobre los socialistas franceses, hicieron la primera vuelta muy bien y quedan dos que se odian, pero trabajan por su partido. Que Esperamos los Venezolanos?
    La Maga Lee

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  6. It is interesting that the oppo candidates are campaigning more in the barrios than in previous elections.Are the candidates bolder or is Chavez weaker or both?

    I also agree with you on Capriles to some extent.I actually like him for who I perceive him to be, but his image on the videos does not come across as very authentic in my opinion, and I wish he would avoid the theme of religion, that in the end will only be held against him by those who are experts in doing so.In running for office he is no longer a private citizen.

    As for PJ'S lurch,it has been in the tradition of Venezuelan political parties to lurch from left to right when they think it benefits their possibilities of gaining votes.

    Personally I disagree with this tactic, because in the end it only contributes more to the idea of all politics being dirty,and everyone lies.Or, "todos los politicos son iguales de malos, son la misma cosa".

    ReplyDelete
  7. RabbiBulla1:34 PM

    Yes, Firepigette, everyone should "vote early and vote often" my grandfather would say--ha.
    Seriously, large percentage of voters I believe it the key and also I hope it will be obviously clear at election time that Chavez will lose. Voting will send a message -Begone Chavez.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous12:03 PM

    Asi es, todos los politicos son la misma cosa, sigan pensando y actuando con esta idea y tendremos a Chavez In vitam eternam.
    La Maga Lee

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous9:45 PM

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    ReplyDelete

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