The recovery of the opposition is far from starting

If you think that after Sunday 16 the drubbing of the opposition is over, think again.  Some of its past decisions are going to come to haunt the MUD. Actually, it is already starting.

The scenario right now, at least if we interpret the cryptic messages from chavismo, is that Chavez may recover but not for January 10. There is already in preparation yet another constitutional coup where the limit date for swearing in of January 10 may be pushed over. Or said swearing be held in a Havana hospital. Then again we are a Cuban colony and this does not trouble me at all, it is logical.

The 2012 primary results: part 4, the PJ sweep that was not quite a sweep

Certainly Primero Justicia is arguably the biggest political party of Venezuela.  But a closer look at the results of February 12 gives a rather nuanced story.  It seems that the votes of Capriles were more his votes than those of PJ (not surprising, fortunately) but also that PJ is still having more trouble than what one may think at spreading out of its Caracas area bastion.

Capriles votes were his (and only his?)

The 2012 primary results: part 3, the Leopoldo effect

The least heralded winner of February 12 is Leopoldo Lopez.  He has prudently, and wisely, and with class, stayed in the background.  His twitter is almost silent.  No way to tell if it is a political calculation or a sign of depression that he is not on top, but whatever it is, Capriles owes him big time.  Not for his victory which was a given since at least December, but for the margin his endorsement gave him, shutting up any protest, forcing a near enthusiastic unity around him, offering the national recognition as the undisputed leader.  In politics this is gold.

The 2012 primary results: part 2, the turnout

The biggest surprise of Sunday 12 was without a doubt the large turnout of the voters for a primary.  This type of elections are usually an affair between committed and not so committed supporters of a given movement.  Thus the turnout is usually in the single digit numbers and can raise, with a good fight, in the low two digits numbers (less than 15% to put a number).  The reason is very simple: in modern democracies the majority party rarely reaches 60% of the final vote and the abstention rate hovers at 30%.  Thus the theoretical ceiling of a primary vote would be a 40% turnout, a number never seen anywhere.  I am not talking about the US extensive primary system because it is now a tradition, because it varies among states, because it is set to provide a winner A.S.A.P. (though of late it has been failing quite a lot at that).  But when I lived in the US I remember political pundits being ecstatic at a given primary getting a 5% turnout!

For national primaries we have the recent example of France where the Socialists elected François Hollande with  less than 3 million participation.  That is, in France, more than twice the size the population of Venezuela, without any constraints or governmental interference, in percentage the turnout was less than half the Venezuelan turnout.  The French political class was duly impressed by the success of Hollande who has been on top of the polls ever since.  And yet the turnout was single digit..........

Thus, on mere international comparisons the Venezuelan turnout of February 12 is remarkable, a record participation say some, the more so that it took place amid constant attempts at sabotaging by the regime who feared a high turnout and thus did all what it could in "acceptable" scare tactics to keep it below 1.5 million voters.  It got twice that much and sent the regime into a tail spin of invective, fascist maneuvers and what not.  But the opposition in Venezuela should not be too happy either.  If it is true that its chances are greatly improved for October presidential vote, it is also true that the vote of February 12 does not necessarily translate by at least an automatic doubling of its count next October as it seems to be the rule of thumb elsewhere. There are two ways to look at that, the intuitive one and the number crunching.

Is the mood for a doubling of the vote in October?

The 2012 primary results: part 1, the scenery

Last night I got my hands on the actual numerical results and there is a lot to be written on that.  The more so that the ambiguity of many of these results offer so many interpretations....  See, the main salient feature is that the Venezuelan opposition voter has become a master at cross voting whereas the chavista voter punches whatever hole it is asked to do.  Let me give you a glaring example starting with my home state of Yaracuy:

PJ Capriles 27.583 votes
PJ governor 16.206
PJ mayor San Felipe 3.356

On the other hand

UNT/other Perez 16.206
Other "other" prez 1.868
Convergnecia governor 35.339
Convergencia SF mayor 3.832
Other SF mayor  2.754

Clearly, Capriles had zero coattails, or rather his coattails were not enough to compensate the bad impression that Primero Justicia left in the state after 2008 when it was the main responsible agent of the total loss of the state to chavismo.  We remembered and we were not ready to reward PJ whatsoever.

This example illustrate the different points that need to be analyzed out of the real numbers.  Right now, not only there is the actual coattails effect, but we can also look at other type of cross over voting, at the participation by region (5.3% in Delta Amacuro to, say, 24,9% in Miranda), at the surprising surge of Voluntad Popular considering that 2 years ago it did not exist and that its coattail maker withdrew 2 weeks before the vote, at the scores of PJ in some key areas, at a certain resilience of AD and Copei, etc, etc...  a few short posts over the days ahead as time allows me.

The winner and loser list one must do

Blogger cannot escape their fate.  As I am waiting for full results, there is a brief winner and loser list from yesterday.

Winners (and whiners?)

Capriles.  No question, silly me!  His leadership probably surprised him.  Who would have said that the result of 13 years of bombastic leadership would have made bland the "nouveau chic politique"?  But do not be fooled, the guy today had his first Internationale press conference and chavismo is finding out that he has more guts than one thought he had.  Note: I repost as homage a picture of him taken over a year ago when I said that it probably locked his victory, that fateful walk in the mud.

Capriles in, AD out, Chavez shaking

UNIDAD

The title summarizes quite well the momentous results of last night, and momentous they were.

The participation

With 3 million people finding their way to the voting stations the primary overcame all expectations, including the ones of yours truly who was the lone voice around saying that we were going to go above 2 million.  In fact in January 11 I was talking 3 millions but in front of negative reactions from readers and colleagues I went down to 2.5 millions (a bet I made last Saturday).  So folks, I take full credit for that prediction which I will call a victory for me, just as I predicted the 69 seats of 2010.  Datanalisis is my only challenger as of today (for that I eat some crow because I did not believe their 62% poll of last week for Capriles).

The primary day post

12:31 AM next day

The day ended in near disaster.  I was stuck in traffic at La Victoria while these asshole chavistas exited in a complete chaos the premises.  There my battery cell phone run low so I had to keep it for phone calls.

Then there was a multiple car crash at the Caracas entry in Tazon and I staid there almost 3 hours, running out of gas almost.  I had to save the last fumes by going down all the hill in neutral, engine off.  By the time I heard Perez excellent concession speech I had enough of it all and turned off the radio.

These episodes today deserve a post on their own with the details that show how degraded a country we live in.

So no analysis tonight, I just heard some news while I ate a cold slice of pizza arriving home, left who knows when.  I may just finish me off through food poisoning....

1:45 PM


DO NOT BELIEVE ANY EXIT POLL OR WHATEVER!  There is no need for them, no one has money for them, they are extremely casual at best.  I am sure that some polling of sorts exist but it has to do more with motivation and market research more than actual winners.  Most parties have people at their tables and the atmosphere is friendly and good overall.  There is simply no need to invest in an expensive, unreliable and useless poll.  This because I already see creeps giving results!  There are none.  Period.  Do not believe any journalists, not even Ocando in Miami and perhaps him the last as who knows who is feeding him data.

Trying to tie a few loose threads before tomorrow's vote

[UPDATE 2 and final]
Thus we are voting tomorrow and since I will leave for Caracas as soon as I am done voting,  there will be no "election day" blogging as I usually do, though there will be live twittering (more on that later).  This means that anything I have to say before voting starts needs to be said by tonight.  As such this post will be up all day and will be updated as needed.


Clear separate issue paragraphs so you can rad only what interests you.

The stakes tomorrow

Of course, what all have eyes on is the big prize, the presidential nomination.  Unfortunately there are also local races that could influence at the very least the margin of victory.  But since the Unidad Election board at times sounds like your average CNE, they will not announce any partial results until the trend is "irreversible".  For example the strong push of Mendoza in Miranda cannot be looked as a bellwether for how well Capriles is going to do overall: we will know about it after the fact, robbing us from any significant suspense on election night.  And giving me a lot more of work after election results to explain given messes.

An endorsement, an apology to the MUD, and predictions with a review

Thus it is time to round up the primary 2012 series of posts, reserving the label for a few more posts until late next week, as results are commented.  Three items in this post..

Voting for the pleasure of it

It seems that AIO, very occasional contributor, is dying to vote even if he is a gringo.  So I obliged with two polls on the right.  The first one, only for those readers who are actually going to vote next Sunday (please, do not vote more than once from different computers!!!).  And a second open poll for whoever reads this blog, as to who do we really, really wish would win next Sunday even though we may end up voting for another guy.  You know who you are, voting for Capriles but wishing Medina to win....

Your little Monday poll: Capriles blowing the field out

"Capoldo" about to "landslide"?

Election must be close, finally major pollster are coming out with the goods, well, some goods at least.  I just received in my mail box the Datanalisis phone survey of the 8 largest cities of Venezuela.  I do not know whether it is on the web, so you are going to have to trust me on this one (and I can forward it to you if you wish it so, just write me). [Added later: the poll is on the net here] Before you read the rest keep this in mind, it is a phone poll of major cities and Capriles is expected to do better in that range whereas Perez is expected to do better in the Podunck polls.  Still, no matter what caveat one may want to put it looks like the endorsement of Leopoldo Lopez to Capriles has sealed the result.

The first slide has a little surprise: it measures whether people have heard of the candidates. They have, all at the same level more or less, which proves the debates have had following enough and thus were beneficial for voter education.  However that slide also shows the likes and dislikes and Maria Corina Machado, MCM, comes out the loser with the higher negatives.  Obviously a truth and reality based campaign is not of the like of the average Venezuelan.

The other primaries: the battle of the proxies

[UPDATED]I am late in covering the other primaries but the task has been more difficult than expected.  First, there is the myriad of alliances that do not match those made at the top of the ticket, and they keep shifting as MCM goes up or Leo goes out.  Second, there is a dearth of polls so really, it is difficult to get even a "trend" that we can trust.  And third, in recent weeks, all are jumping on coattails: even if opposing, candidates for the town-hall of Tucusiapon have their picture taken with Capriles.  One has a sense that if Perez where also to offer his picture with both of them they would probably accept.

The dust settles over the primary campaign perturbations

Two recent events have thrown two powerful wrenches into the carefully orchestrated Unidad primary where all was supposed to go smoothly toward a united candidate, at the price of, lets's say it, a rather dull campaign.  And today it is nice to see that the wrenches will not have wrecked the opposition united resolve as chavismo keeps hoping; and maybe made it even stronger.

The first wrench was the head to head of Maria Corina Machado and Chavez on January 13.  Besides the folklore around such an event the fact of the matter is that MCM became a credible candidate and one with a real political future.  Suddenly the perspective that she could do better than a 4th place and deny an outright majority to the winner became clear to all and forced the other guys to review their strategies.

Vote for Leopoldo, pray for Maria Corina, but bet on Henrique

Wilson at 29

Even though this headline does not apply anymore, I was not going to let it go to waste, having been planning a post with that title for a few days.  The line comes from noted US historian Samuel Eliot Morison who recalled that the first time he voted was for the election of 1912 between Taft, T. Roosevelt as a dissident and Wilson for the Democrats.  Young and inexperienced he asked for advice and one of his friends told him that line that for some strange reason always stayed with me for its nearly exquisite understanding of politics: "Vote for Roosevelt, pray for Taft, but bet on Wilson." (1)

Until Monday night this had been pretty much my feeling as to what the outcome of February 2012 should be, or at least how should I think about it.  Alas, Leopoldo and Henrique tied the knot yesterday and I have not been able to pull out an adequate historical quote.

The debate that ended in a real surprise

At the debate tonight what mattered the most was the leaving line of Leopoldo Lopez as to a forthcoming joint announcement with Capriles next day.  In fact, after watching it live, really, Miguel and I did hang out for a while and all candidates did, except Leopoldo who was nowhere to be found, with few of his supporters around except for his mother that made a point to go and give Capriles a hug (well, we thought it was Leopoldo's mother anyway).  There is no need to treat this as some form of running away, but simply something big is planned tomorrow and the less people had access to LL and his close circle, the less possibility of a leak as to the details.

It would be unbecoming, so to speak, to speculate widely as to the announcement tomorrow but tonight we can certainly piece up a few things.  Readers of this blog should not be too surprised after all: the Maria Corina Machado bout with Chavez 10 days ago has changed the dynamics of the campaign (here and here).  Not that Henrique Capriles Radonski  is threatened decisively but now positions 2, 3 and 4 are up for grabs and wide open for Pablo Perez, LL and MCM, without discounting that after tonight's performance HCR is not going to go up in polls and could well be in trouble by February 12.  Let's face it, if Capriles were so sure of winning, why would he accept a pact with Leopoldo at this late in the game?

So, what gives?

A 23 de Enero with a new breeze

Today we commemorate January 23 1958 date we threw out or one before last dictator.  Yes, I consider now Chavez a dictator even if he has been elected at some point So the opposition Unidad decided to use the date to offer the governmental program for the next elected president of the opposition.  Assuming we will win....  Still, it was a nice ceremony that I attended courtesy of my contacts with X.  I did a live twittering of the whole thing with some picture (not too good, my zoom stopped working for some mystery reason not solved yet).  Nice, simple ceremony with the 6 candidates on state listening the presentation and not declaring anything.

Debate tonight

Tonight we have what might be the last debate before the campaign ending, or at least the last debate that may still change the arriving order.  I will be covering it live either on twitter or blog.  Starting Caracas time 8 PM.  It is hosted by Globovision and it seems that the format will change some so that the candidates will have the opportunity to diss the other guys a little bit.  should be more enjoyable than the previous ones.  And Globovision is seen in many countries so check your cable if your Spanish allows for trying to watch the show.

Campaign temperature

Without judging the value of that video or investigating whether the claims are correct (I assume that they are not totally misleading because at this stage of the campaign it would be too dangerous to pull such a stunt) I am putting this video ad of Leopoldo Lopez which apparently was censored by X.  It is about Lopez commitment to fight crime.  I have no further detail so far on that censorship allegation.  Regardless, it gives you an idea of the campaign temperature and probably foretells a more interesting debate than usual next Monday night.  You do not need to understand Spanish to get the mood.

The other primaries: PJ gambit in Miranda and Aragua

Let's start for the easiest one to discuss and the only one that has reliable polls for some of the races. Primero Justicia is trying to with Miranda what UNT has done in Zulia: transform the state into its political base and try from there to hopscotch elsewhere, like in next door Aragua.  For this it is willing to burn bridges and antagonize whoever it needs to.

Miranda governor