Monday, February 06, 2012

Your little Monday poll: Capriles blowing the field out

"Capoldo" about to "landslide"?
Election must be close, finally major pollster are coming out with the goods, well, some goods at least.  I just received in my mail box the Datanalisis phone survey of the 8 largest cities of Venezuela.  I do not know whether it is on the web, so you are going to have to trust me on this one (and I can forward it to you if you wish it so, just write me). [Added later: the poll is on the net here] Before you read the rest keep this in mind, it is a phone poll of major cities and Capriles is expected to do better in that range whereas Perez is expected to do better in the Podunck polls.  Still, no matter what caveat one may want to put it looks like the endorsement of Leopoldo Lopez to Capriles has sealed the result.

The first slide has a little surprise: it measures whether people have heard of the candidates. They have, all at the same level more or less, which proves the debates have had following enough and thus were beneficial for voter education.  However that slide also shows the likes and dislikes and Maria Corina Machado, MCM, comes out the loser with the higher negatives.  Obviously a truth and reality based campaign is not of the like of the average Venezuelan.

The second slide measures the Leopoldo effect.  It shows how people changed their voting intention between January 23 and today.  Capriles jumps from 42 to 61% intention while the other stay the same and Pablo Perez actually loses 2 points.

The following slides are of the beauty contest type and thus no interest considering the quickie nature of the poll.

At the end there is a slightly more interesting slide that would suggest that the Leopoldo endorsement has attracted to Capriles more than just the bulk of  his voters: the undecided portion of mid January has been decanting for Capriles helped along by the sense of unity that Leopoldo's endorsement brought.

Finally, what troubles me the most: MCM at only 5% in spite of everything.  I was not expecting her to win but after her January confrontation with Chavez and her strong debate performances I am troubled that she is not getting at least 10%, in spite of her negatives.  Then again I have limited trust in Datanilisis which comes across to me as having an agenda of their own through their polling system, even if they tend to be right when Chavez is in the poll.  Let's see if Datanalisis will be a victim of a Mockus effect...

So there you have it, the highlights.

17 comments:

  1. "MCM, comes out the loser with the higher negatives. Obviously a truth and reality based campaign is not of the like of the average Venezuelan."

    She has tried hard, but she probably still comes out as a "sifrina", way too refined for vast chunks of our under-educated pueblo. Her speech has been a little too fancy, people smell "Caurimare" from miles away.. plus mistakes like "Capitalismo Popular"..

    Capriles has more succes, more than el otro "sifrino" Leopoldo, mainly because, like Chavez, he speaks Venezuelan "gansta" language, el idioma de la mayoria, la langue des masses.. Sad, but true.

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  2. I have a massive distrust of polls for this primary for two reasons: They have failed before (#26S) and this particular kind of election is completely new, so there's no precedent.

    About MCM's numbers, I think polls can underrepresent her, because her base of support is more into the ABC segments in the major cities and polls usually try to present the view of all social segments.

    Unless something unbelievable happens in the next few days, this election is HCR's to lose. And MCM will do better than anybody expects.

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  3. Charly8:41 PM

    Not surprised MCM is trailing. This place is spelled M.A.C.H.O. Reminds me when I was working in Belem do Para many moons ago and when I told a local colleague that back home we had she-ministers, he replied: down here we have another use for women. Plus ça change.......

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  4. I am not surprised at the negative rating that MCM got after the discussion with Chávez. In fact, I commented at the time, in Miguel's blog,that she missed her opportunity to win new fresh votes.

    My reasoning was the following: she was doing very well in the discussion against Chávez, reminding people of the bad situation in Venezuela, of the insecurity, of the lack of basic commodities, etc and then, all of a sudden, she shifted to "expropiar es robar". This is a key concern for those that own important property, but it is not the major concern for the large majority of venezuelans. I said at that time in Miguel's blog that she probably had re-affirmed the vote of those that would vote for her anyways but, unfortunately, she missed the opportunity to win new votes. Moreover, that shifting from other important issues to the property issue probably highlighted her rich girl status and disconnected her from the mainstream voters.


    This being said, I agree with Geha714 that MCM will do better than what the polls say because she has increased her standing among the hard-core voters of the east of Caracas.

    I really like MCM and feel she would be a terrific candidate against Chávez and a very good president...unfortunately I don't think she chose a good strategy to separate herself from the bunch: she should have used the "fed up woman" image more and less the "property" card.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bruni

      I am not so sure. The lack of traction for that issue is linked to the erroneous perception that only big property is targeted. Whenever the opposition has managed to link property rights as being threatened by the regime for ALL, things have suddenly changed. Remember the famous "butcher shop" ad that was banned by the CNE in 2006? It was an example of successful link in popular imagination and the government was prompt in banning the ad.

      But it really does not matter, MCM bout with Chavez is a bonus she will cash in the future, not right now no matter how much people speak about that, just as the "por ahora" of Chavez came to haunt us long after he said those words.

      Delete
  5. I can't believe this is happening already - just a few days away! How's the mood about this there in Venezuela? How's the mood of you readers/voters (i.e., the ones who are both, as opposed to just the former, like me)?

    By the way, the minimal difference between slides 4 and 7 seems very significant to me, as it suggests almost no one is voting for the frontrunner even though he's not their preferred candidate. (Could be some liars there, I know.) And slide 8 may very well sum up why Capriles could be the best candidate against Chavez.

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    Replies
    1. Why? You wanna me put up polls?

      Delete
  6. Maria Corina never gained any traction, period. She has never had any meaningful levels in any poll by any pollster. She has no national structure. Started late. She has never appealed outside of the East of Caracas, she is too sifrina, too young. Compare her to Leopoldo who has been working longer and all over and also did not get traction.

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    Replies
    1. By the way Miguel. this poll has been criticized and Datanalisis accused of complicity with the campaign of Capriles. Not surprising, he has been saying all what Luis Vicente Leon says candidates should stick to......

      Delete
  7. Anonymous12:46 PM

    There is no time now, but I believe(don't ask why)Perez will get larger numbers than expected from the small towns. I just hope the Perez voters support Capriles after losing.
    Too bad about Machado, I am surprised that more women especially are not supporting her. Maybe they are,just quietly and will vote for her...
    And, has "capitalismo" really become a bad word
    in Venezuela?

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  8. I too very much wanted MCM to do better, and one of the reasons is the following: I think she ,more than any of the others exposes( or makes conscious) the essential lies that cause Venezuelans to be confused about the issues.Just the fact that some people might equate expropriation only with large companies is a great example....somehow people are not listening.

    It is my opinion that unless Venezuelans can tolerate the truth openly and clearly without reading their prejudices and insults into an honest train of thought...there is little hope for essentially improving National problems.....instead we might find just a little shuffling of the problems to the other side of the room.

    It is always painful to grow, and this is not only true for Venezuela but for all of us everywhere.....the first step is becoming conscious.

    Appeasement and bargaining with the devil only prolongs the misery.

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    Replies
    1. Anonymous4:51 PM

      So you know the truth, MCM knows the truth, and the problem is that most Venezuelans can't tolarate it....OMG, your statement is beyond crazy, Ms. Piggy

      Delete
    2. Anonymous,

      By definition it is correct, and far from crazy. MCM calls Chavez a thief in so many words which he is, and many are horrified by such an 'aggression'...but thankfully not all of us.

      SO many seem to think she is not diplomatic enough.They think her anger is wrong, when in reality it is just honest.... folks just hate to hear the naked truth.

      Delete
    3. kernel_panic11:47 PM

      I agree that MCM know her stuff and speaks the truth, however, what Miguel Octavio says it's also true :p

      Right now I can't make up my mind, either MCM because she's the one I stand for, or, capriles, with the sole purpose of that being: PP MUST NOT WIN!!!

      I know most likely he isn't gonna win anyways, but it scares the nabla out of me whenever I think of PP for president T_T

      Delete
  9. Anonymous4:07 AM

    Guys, this is ridiculous. Just vote for Maria Corina if that is what you want. Don't vote for the other guy because "he has more chances". Just vote for her, because everybody else is doing it and she is going to win. She will beat the hell out of chavez and we will have the change we want. As simple as that.

    ReplyDelete
  10. No, Firepigette, most of us are not horrified that María Corina tells Chávez he is a thief. For all I care, she can say he is a wanker AND a bloody thief, which is true. The point is she spent in her only opportunity to have Chávez face to face in one year more than 50% of her time referring to the perspective of the exproppiated businessmen, which count for less than 2% of Venezuela's population, people who anyway are going to vote against Chávez.
    She also speaks like someone who only now is showing some interest in the poor.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I don't like "matanálisis", they always show as winner whoever paid the poll, and twist the results by asking questions that lead to that twisting, in example, if they ask if Chávez is popular (which everyone would say he is) they would publish number saying he has so-and-so percent of acceptance and support. Don't like or trust them, at all.

    ReplyDelete

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