Friday, August 24, 2012

Venezuela's electoral numbers 2012: 3- time to call it for Capriles?

Yes, I think I am ready to call it for Capriles. Remember, that his winning does not assure that he will take office as the thugs in Miraflores palace may have other plans. Also, there is still a month and a half of campaign left and all is possible, even the unthinkable that would plunge the country in chaos. But based on my trend studies, based on the obvious organization and enthusiasm in Capriles campaign, based on the obvious mess in the Chavez camp, I think that right now, today, if elections were held, Capriles would win by at least 100.000, with a potential to grow 300,000 by the end of the month.

Before you read the tables below, a few things to keep in mind.


Polls: only one, that I know of, is calling already for a narrow Capriles lead.  But all serious pollsters are having a positive trend for Capriles.  His camp has even hinted that they are expecting a 500.000 victory margin. As such my trend study is walking hand in hand with these polling numbers so neither one is far of the mark :)

Votes: due to chavismo powerful blackmailing machine, it is my feeling that many people today will say that they are not voting for Capriles.  But more than at any time in recent elections there is the strong possibility that hundred of thousand may change their vote at the voting booth.....  thus I am expecting, and I come on record now with that, at least 200,000 votes more for Capriles than whatever polls say October 1.

Data: as always, my data comes straight from CNE pages and I pretend it as true.  That means I am not dwelling on fraud reported in remote centers, etc...  The point is that even with the CNE data, I see a Capriles win in October. If indeed the opposition manages to cover effectively all centers this time around, then the stronger a Capriles victory will be.  Note: "total" numbers in the tables may not match exactly some of the totals numbers reported by the CNE because I have been rounding up a lot.  That is, 123,456 becomes 123 or even 120 K votes.

Method: I confess that I have been a little bit more sloppy than in previous estimates.  But my private life has been complicated since April and I simply do not have the time or energy to look into as much provincial information and trends as I used to do.  Still, my starting point from past elections is good and I have tried to compensate my accidental sloppiness through very conservative estimates.

Starting points: I used the Rosales/Chavez of 2006.  The most relevant election since then was the parliamentary election of 2010 because Chavez invested himself so much in it, making it an election about him, at least in part.  In that election I considered the results for the "parlatino". In my opinion, the vote for an unknown Latin American parliament is freer of local factors, more likely to be a knee-jerk vote.  There was, besides the opposition list, a PPT and an OPINA lists who did little but enough in some states to influence next October outcome, depending on how these voters shift.  Being conservative I assumed that half of OPINA and PPT would go Capriles.  The rest?  Who knows... I do not subscribe to the opposition thesis that PPT votes will all go Capriles.  The last starting block was the opposition primary results which I was sent to and processed last February in several posts.

Background: you may want to consult three previous posts to help you understand better some of the tables below, the post on why I gave Capriles a starting point of 5 million + vote from the primary result, the trend away from Chavez in popular classes as per my long term watch of Caucagïta, and the three key states of Bolivar, Anzoategui and Lara which I put in purple in one of the tables.

And now the tables. I discovered that I can copy paste excel tables in blogger but some format is lost. It does have the advantage of simplicity for me and the same background.

In the first table we look at how the pro Chavez vote went down between 2006 and 2010.  I have noted the CNE registered voters in the first column but these numbers may change.  There are there for reference in the relative strength of each state.

In pink we can see the states where chavismo dropped more than 20%, and thus the states where the opposition has the most to win, in particular by making sure that its representatives are watching out every voting station.  and in purple what I consider the three major battle ground states.  I am not including there Miranda and Zulia because they are very polarized states from the start and neither side can hope to make much inroads in those at this point. Besides both states have 99% odds to go Capriles.

In the last column I assume that Chavez will make some recovery of the lost ground, as much as 30% of the lost vote in states where his voters abandoned him by more than 20% and only a 15% recover of lost votes in the other states, since I assume that the lower drop meant a more seated polarization, less pickings for each side.

Registered Voters 2012  Chavez 2006 parlatino psuv PSUV-CHAVEZ drop in 2010 recovery 2012?
Apure 292 126 98 -22% 106
Portuguesa 544 274 205 -25% 226
Guarico 471 217 160 -26% 177
Barinas 497 212 167 -21% 181
Cojedes 211 100 78 -22% 85
Trujillo 472 210 171 -19% 177
Merida 550 202 174 -14% 178
Tachira 755 258 207 -20% 215
Anzoategui 950 374 266 -29% 298
Nueva Esparta 305 113 75 -34% 86
Monagas 562 254 186 -27% 206
Sucre 602 269 163 -39% 195
Bolivar 894 372 241 -35% 280
Delta Amacuro 108 53 50 -6% 50
Amazonas 75 40 24 -40% 29
Aragua 1.112 538 345 -36% 403
Carabobo 1.416 584 385 -34% 445
Libertador 1.556 658 463 -30% 522
Miranda 1.858 693 650 -6% 656
Vargas 254 113 81 -28% 91
Zulia 2.229 724 655 -10% 665
Yaracuy 388 163 127 -22% 138
Falcon 597 237 180 -24% 197
Lara 1.142 516 213 -59% 304
Total 17840 7300 5364 5910
Registered Chavez 2006 PSUV 2010 Chavez 2012?



In the next table we look at opposition gains since 2006 when Rosales was candidate.  This is the most complex of the lot, sorry.

First column, registered voters.
Second column, from my post in February as to my projections for Capriles based on the primary result. This is what I consider the lowest he will get in October.
Next column is Rosales in 2006, for the record.
Then we have the parlatino vote in 2010, which leads in the shift from 2006 to 2010 next column in percentage. Some cases in pink show that the opposition in some instances did lose a few votes, which is the case in Miranda that I am at a loss to explain, except that there OPINA did a good score.
Which leads us to the next column where I added the PPT and OPINA votes, particularly important in Lara, Miranda and Amazonas.
The last column adds up the 2010 opposition vote plus HALF of the OPINA+PPT vote. You will note that it is slightly below my Capriles prediction in base of his primaries.  Let's call this column the minimum that Capriles will get in October, no matter what, still a hefty million more than Rosales in 2006.

Voters 2012  Primary projection for HCR Rosales 2006 Opposition 2010 OPPO SHIFT 2006-2010 2010 opina+ppt OPPO LOWEST 2010?
Apure 292 58 54 52 -4% 6 55
Portuguesa 544 112 81 97 20% 12 103
Guarico 471 124 84 80 -5% 32 96
Barinas 497 133 95 121 27% 9 126
Cojedes 211 47 36 37 3% 5 40
Trujillo 472 109 92 94 2% 8 98
Merida 550 165 173 173 0% 10 178
Tachira 755 246 245 282 15% 13 289
Anzoategui 950 284 235 313 33% 17 322
Nueva Esparta 305 93 79 102 29% 8 106
Monagas 562 124 103 119 16% 12 125
Sucre 602 181 95 140 47% 12 146
Bolivar 894 270 169 229 36% 22 240
Delta Amacuro 108 16 15 15 0% 2 16
Amazonas 75 27 11 7 -36% 24 19
Aragua 1.112 333 209 318 52% 25 331
Carabobo 1.416 468 360 451 25% 36 469
Libertador 1.556 479 387 460 19% 50 485
Miranda 1.858 700 525 480 -9% 44 502
Vargas 254 58 49 62 27% 6 65
Zulia 2.229 689 683 820 20% 13 827
Yaracuy 388 96 87 82 -6% 21 93
Falcon 597 160 142 158 11% 12 164
Lara 1.142 358 258 289 12% 208 393
TOTAL 17.840 5.328 4.267 4.981        5.285


In this next table we have a first look at Chavez versus Capriles next October.  This is my most conservative scenario, the worst that Capriles can do if his campaign were to start floundering through September.

Here I simply compare the votes between Chavez and Rosales in 2006 and what I expect these results to be in 2012 with Capriles. In other words, I see that Chavez has lost 1.3 million while the opposition gained 1 million (implying more abstention than in 2006, mostly due to chavista voters staying home).  In this worst case scenario, Capriles loses by 600.  But in the next table, I try to take into account other factors which reverse that result.  But before we go there observe that this 1 million gain for the opposition offers very significant state gains compared to 2006, highlighted in pale blue.  Miranda does not figure in the gains because Rosales did poorly there in 2006. But all logic, observations, etc., give Miranda to Capriles in October

Registered Voters 2012  Chavez 2006 Chavez 2012? Rosales 2006 Capriles 2010?
Apure 292 126 106 54 55
Portuguesa 544 274 226 81 103
Guarico 471 217 177 84 96
Barinas 497 212 181 95 126
Cojedes 211 100 85 36 40
Trujillo 472 210 177 92 98
Merida 550 202 178 173 178
Tachira 755 258 215 245 289
Anzoategui 950 374 298 235 322
Nueva Esparta 305 113 86 79 106
Monagas 562 254 206 103 125
Sucre 602 269 195 95 146
Bolivar 894 372 280 169 240
Delta Amacuro 108 53 50 15 16
Amazonas 75 40 29 11 19
Aragua 1.112 538 403 209 331
Carabobo 1.416 584 445 360 469
Libertador 1.556 658 522 387 485
Miranda 1.858 693 656 525 502
Vargas 254 113 91 49 65
Zulia 2.229 724 665 683 827
Yaracuy 388 163 138 87 93
Falcon 597 237 197 142 164
Lara 1.142 516 304 258 393
Total 17840 7300 5910 4267 5285



Thus we reach the last table which is where more of my gut feeling and recent observations come into play, such as voiding the scenario where Miranda would not be won by Capriles.  In that table I still remain conservative.

In this table Chavez 2012? and Capriles 2012? are values "corrected" from above. For example I actually improve Chavez in Guarico in spite of a bad result in 2010.  But in general I improve Capriles and lower Chavez based on the political mistakes that Chavez perpetrates and the expected local consequences (not trying to be more impressed than necessary by Capriles street showings, remember, conservative estimates!)

With these corrections now Capriles beats Chavez by 100,000.  I know, I know, it is all very subjective to my appreciations (and I can still change by October). But I persist and went further by adding two columns of states where I think there is a current down trend for Chavez and an uptrend for Capriles.  These should come to fruition by September and then Capriles in my speculation will be ahead by 300,000 votes. Note that and uptrend for one does not imply a downtrend in the other.  What I am trying to guess, among other, is how abstention evolves. By the way, in this "corrected" scenario I see almost 300,000 voters than in 2006.

Registered Voters 2012  Chavez 2006 Chavez 2012? downtrend Chavez Rosales 2006 Capriles 2012? uptrend Capriles
Apure 292 126 106 54 65
Portuguesa 544 274 226 10 81 103 10
Guarico 471 217 177 84 100 10
Barinas 497 212 175 95 130
Cojedes 211 100 80 36 40 5
Trujillo 472 210 175 92 105 10
Merida 550 202 170 5 173 190
Tachira 755 258 215 245 289
Anzoategui 950 374 280 10 235 330
Nueva Esparta 305 113 86 5 79 106
Monagas 562 254 190 10 103 150 10
Sucre 602 269 180 95 160 20
Bolivar 894 372 250 169 260 5
Delta Amacuro 108 53 40 15 20
Amazonas 75 40 30 11 25 5
Aragua 1.112 538 403 209 360
Carabobo 1.416 584 440 10 360 480
Libertador 1.556 658 500 10 387 525 10
Miranda 1.858 693 550 10 525 650 10
Vargas 254 113 91 5 49 65 5
Zulia 2.229 724 665 15 683 850
Yaracuy 388 163 115 5 87 100
Falcon 597 237 170 5 142 175 5
Lara 1.142 516 280 258 420
Total 17840 7300 5594 100 4267 5697 105
Total if? 5494 5802


So there you have it, my first official prediction. Capriles winning by 300,000. If any one can prove me wrong, you are welcome to make your case.  It should not be too difficult as there is a lot of guessing and gut feeling above.  But be warned that it is coherent and based on much more than how many people show up at Capriles rallies or do not show up at Chavez shows. If one were to use that criteria Capriles by now would be winning by a couple of million of votes.

In other words, what I am hinting at is that this election more than ever will depend on abstention, this one this time jeopardizing the chances of Chavez as his followers may not be ready to vote for Capriles but are more than ready to stay home in disgust.  That is the number to watch on polls and through election day.

25 comments:

  1. Anonymous9:34 PM

    The Chavistas will commit mass murder if they lose. They are brainwashed to hate anyone who opposes them. There are guns everywhere given out by Chavez to arm his militias. The Chavista cronies will not give up their ill-gotten wealth. This is a very dangerous time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I love it when anonymous share with us wisdom.

      So? What do you suggest we do? Stay home and give the election to Chavez? Should I close my blog? Is it better to flip burgers in Miami or serve tapas in Madrid?

      Delete
    2. Anonymous8:37 AM

      Chavistas are bullies. And like all bullies, they're very "brave" when they feel they are the ones with the power, but absolute cowards when they feel they're about to lose that power. The moment they feel Chavez's loss in unavoidable, they'll escape for Cuba, Ecuador or Bolivia faster than speeding bullet.

      Delete
    3. Neither Daniel, you should come get rich in Tallahassee.

      Delete
    4. Défine rich.

      Delete
    5. hehehe

      Delete
  2. Anonymous10:55 PM

    Estas ignorando algo,

    Por ejemplo, en Carabobo dices que votarán 920mil personas (440 Chávez y 480 Capriles), cuando hay inscritos 1419. Es decir, estimas una abstención de 35%? Muy alta! Fuera de toda lógica.

    En el 2010 fue 33% y en el 2006 fue 24%! Fijate que Carabobo tiene la ventaja que registra abstenciones similares a las de pais!

    Todas las encuestadoras estan registrando una participación mejor que en el 2010! Yo la estimo (a nivel nacional) entre 74% y 78%. Supongamos que es 75% a nivel nacional y 75% en Carabobo.

    Deben votar en Carabobo 1060mil personas... 140mil mas de lo que tu estimas... Como hacemos?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1) el registro electoral deja mucho que desear.

      2) hago estimaciones muy prudentes. Es decir que más bien favorezco a Chavez, y con una abstención parecida al 2006 (pongo 250000 más votos que en 2006).

      3) esto al final me lleva a decir que como en el 2007 esta vez la abstención favorece más a la oposición aunque por razones distintas.

      No te olvides de una cosa: para un chavista que votó Chavez desde 1998 votar Capriles hoy es muy duro, es reconocer 14 años de error. Quedarse en casa es más facil. Por lo tanto no es inconcebible que en Carabobo chavistas arrechos se queden en gran número en casa y que efectivamente la abstención suba!

      Pero no te preocupes, lo importante del post no es Carabobo versus Miranda donde supuestamente Chavez ganaría si nos basamos en 2006. El error que hago con un estado se compensa con el error en otro estado. Lo importante es que mis cálculos dan por primera vez desde que los hago una clara ventaja a la oposición, y creciendo.

      Delete
    2. Anonymous11:00 AM

      I hope you are right, but I didn't analize this like you. The point about chavistas staying home, looks good, but... I don't know..

      It's hard for me to believe, under 75% participation in a presidential election.

      Delete
  3. Island Canuck7:01 AM

    I attended a Capriles rally in Nueva Esparta yesterday.
    It's something to experience an event like this live & feel the emotion in the people. He's like a rock star, especially among the women. His message is short & direct. He listens. He states the obvious & he'll win easily.

    He also has no fear to walk among the people - a hug here, a kiss there and a handshake everywhere. He's totally believable. His comments always include everyone regardless of political affiliation.

    All the venom that spews from Chavez' mouth & from those around him will not win this election.

    The key point is what will happen on 8O when the reality hits Chavismo.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous9:54 AM

    The only dictator that gave up power voluntarily, that I know of, was Augusto Pinochet in Chile. Chavez is no Pinochet! Much as I dislike predictions, unless Capriles wins by a huge margin, Chavez will probably do everything possible to stay in power, including some form of "golpe". That's what all those AK-47s are for.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Dr. Faustus10:05 AM

    With that catastrophe at Amuay this morning, the Chavistas have been put in a corner. Be careful. They will lash out with vengence. There will be an attempt to 'rally the base.' Those are primal instincts. Something is about to happen, I just don't know what.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Charly11:16 AM

      Never a dull moment in the Bolivarian republic We owe it to Chavez, the circus master.

      Delete
  6. torres10:30 AM

    A "call it" coming from you, Daniel, has much weight, at least to me. Then looking at your reasoning and numbers, it gave me goose bumps.

    --

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous1:00 PM

      Thank you, Daniel. This confirms my gut feeling as well. What you feel in the country right now cannot be measured with simple statistics. The time for change is here.

      The Perfect Shitstorm that was brewing over castrochavismo has now hit full force.

      Anonymous: "mass murder"?, AK-47s? Really? Pásate por Bello Monte. We are already at war.

      Gold

      Delete
  7. Not every Chavista is hardcore. They have a soft vote too. There is certain percent that is tired and don't care anymore. They are sick of the rhetoric and will be motivated to stay home. The Capriles vote is he high turnout and motivated vote.

    ReplyDelete
  8. ADíaz3:13 PM

    As a detergent-box-social-psychologist, I would say that venezuelans get tired of things easily, therefore I think that many ni nis’ decision at the voting machine would benefit Capriles. Sort of “let’s give this other guy the chance”, just because he is new. I’m talking about people who don’t expect much from any government, or who are just too busy making a living to think about politics or, as Ken says, are soft core chavistas. IMHO…

    ReplyDelete
  9. Milonga6:11 PM

    All I can say is: The righteous cry, and the LORD heareth, and delivereth them out of all their troubles. Amen!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And I say, "The Lord helps those who help themselves."

      Delete
  10. I think that you have done a very good job in estimating the results of the elections.Even with your so called "sloppiness" it's a much more detailed calculation then any other I have seen.

    -firepigette

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you, but I have stuck my neck out more than ever with that one. Heck, I pout state results when in fact I meant to put only vote differential.... Somebody is going to hang me for that....

      Delete
  11. kernel_panic7:26 PM

    Tough but interesting question: what effect does the Amuay thing has on this? significant or just barely? :$

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It should cost Chavez Falcon which was teetering. Capriles should definitely pick it up by 10 K now. And after Chavez performance today it may go up to 15K....

      Delete
  12. Federico S1:15 PM

    Hi Daniel, a very interesting post. Yet I have two major questions:
    1. Isn't the comparison of a presidential election to a parliamentary election unfair, in particular when determining the vote for Chavez?People who like Chavez frequently hate the rest of Chavismo (so this would exaggerate the decline in support for Chavez from 2006-2010)
    2. How do you factor in the very different economic situation in the country now as opposed to 2010? 2010 RGDP fell by 1.5%, right now GDP is increasing on the margin by 5% (at least according to the BCV).
    Thanks again for the post!
    Federico

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The answers are in the post, but since you do not seem to understand them...

      2007 and 2009 were referendum, one lost and one won by chavez. as such they cancel each other out.

      2008 was a regional election and as such there are local factors that had an influence in the outcome.

      only 2010 can be used for comparison because, 1) it was a national election and 2) chavez invested himself heavily in the election asking for a 2/3 majority in the assembly. he did put himself at play and made the election about him. not me.

      as for the economic situation. where is the 5% growth? you may see it, you may benefit from it but certainly not me, nor my business, nor my employees.

      the current "boom" is not a real one. it is mere distribution of money that only benefits a few, preferably those that already vote for chavez. it is a consumption boom. only construction sector has real growth but agriculture and manufacturing according to their sectors are either stationary or actually decreasing. the venezuelan economy has become so state dependent that only those associated with the state may experience better times. as such the increase in 5%, if it is indeed that much, is felt less than the decrease in 1.5% of 2010. in fact, very few in the private sector have recovered from 2010, and certainly not employment.

      you cannot apply political rules of other countries in venezuela such as "it is the economy stupid".

      Delete

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