Sunday, December 09, 2012

Towards the end of Chavez, and the beginning of the Maduro era?

Tonight we learned one thing: Maduro is the apparent winner of the succession war. That Chavez was sick and that his coming end was a reality we already knew.  When he tells us that it is only a "few malignant cells to be removed" but adds in the same speech that if worse comes to pass people should vote for Maduro we are confirmed in our strong suspicions that it is a metastatic condition that ails him and the prognosis sucks. A few preliminary comments while we await for the new show to unfold.

First we should sue Chavez for the fraudulent elections he had the country go through. Metastases do not appear out of the blue. Signs were all along. If Chavez real debilitating sickness had not been extreme narcissism he would have had Maduro run for last October vote and campaigned for him. With Chavez actively behind he may have won.

Believe it or not but Maduro is not a bad option to replace Chavez for chavismo. For the other side all are bad but for chavismo Maduro is vulgar, radical and from "el pueblo".  In addition he is the live embodiment of "social promotion" possible under Chavez. From bus driver trade union to foreign minister and vice president the message is clear: it pays to be an amoral chavista. Who needs a real degree and a productive career?

And since it is late and I just got the news coming back from a night out I will just add that it is not all over for Diosdado and that Maduro should not be planning redecorating Miraflores palace just yet. Even if Chavez has all but admitted that he will not be available January 10 for his swearing in the day he finally croaks is not the true date for Maduro ascent. First we need to see the results of next Sunday vote and see which side of chavismo can claim victory. Second, if I have a feel that the "civilian" and radical branches are indeed behind Maduro (and our colonial masters Cuba), the military is the real elector. For the time being I am sure that they said yes to Chavez naming Nicolas Maduro his heir. After all, why rock the boat while Chavez is alive? Trump cards are always played as late as possible, preferably once the strong players have been brought down.

My only regret is that it seems that Chavez will never find his way to a court of justice to account for his crimes though I have no doubt as to the harsh judgment history has in store for him. I certainly would never wish his death and even less in his current option but I have to say that his departure will be a relief for a country that has been in downward spiral for at least 5 years. His passing will not solve anything but his departure is a must as no side or country could prosper as long as he was allegedly in charge. For better or for worse we need him gone.


  1. Don not agree, he should have been alive when the debacle came, now we have a Juan Domingo Peron ready to struck with a Kirchner in the future, now the cancer has been infected in the country.

  2. The only sad thing about this all that Chavez never will be prosecuted for his crimes against the people of Venezuela. I am sure, if good directors are on top, Venezuela can become one of the most beautiful countries in the world. It will take some time to get cured by the cancer, but this country has every potential for it.

  3. Sorry, but indeed Venezuela is allready one of the most beautiful countries in the world.

  4. Milonga9:10 AM

    Amen, Dano, amen!

  5. I am with Rafael on this: historical perceptions are not what professional historians might want them to be. Che was a criminal, but he is seen as a hero. Perón was another criminal but millions adore him. I still remember how an Argentinian biologist on a PhD in Germany around 1999 defended Perón so vehemently (I think now he works in El Impeeeerio, no joooda).
    That's one of the few reasons why I'd rather have Hugo fade away rather than this.

    Remember this:

    The Kurgan

  6. Jeffry House10:27 AM

    Someone interested in legitimacy would have named Maduro Vice President before the election. That way, Maduro would have electoral success, not just the dedo, in his biography when the new campaign begins.

  7. Yes, Maduro is the heir apparent, emphasis in apparent.
    With Chavez gone what will follow is a power vacuum, both in the government and the PSUV, and Maduro is not big enough to fill that vacuum. A biumvirate Maduro, Diosdado may work in the short term but that alliance wouldn't last. Meanwhile with impending presidential elections, the boat sinking and people hedging their bets, the MUD and Capriles need to consolidate an image as the solid, civil, peaceful option for a post Chavez transition.

  8. Like everything with the Chavistas there seems to be an ethnic bias.

    Many Chavistas think it is alright to have the Cubans choose our next president and permeate the government at all levels as they are just our LA cousins.


  9. "I have no doubt as to the harsh judgment history has in store for him."

    The harshness will soften by the psychological damage control, now in progress on VTV, and in the (near? medium-term?) future, Sean Penn as Chávez in a blockbuster movie.

    In sum, move over, Evita Perón. There's a new myth-maker in town.

  10. Considering that, according to law, when a President dies in office s/he goes straight to the Panteón Nacional, I cannot stop wondering if the new mausoleum (the skateboard ramp) was actually for Bolívar or for Chávez himself, a la Lenin.

  11. Anonymous2:28 PM

    Headlines since this weekend: "Chavez Cancer Returns" What??? We here know it never left. What I'm really curious about is what is the talk among the pro chavez folk in the street?

    We can now look forward to the chavista government to empty the national coffers all over again on a second election to get their favorite bus driver elected.

    Buen Viaje Thugo.

    Alejo VZLA Paraiso Perdido

  12. Anonymous9:55 PM

    thanks for sharing.


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