Maduro charmed at Sharm El-Sheikh

The big discussion today at least for those interested in Venezuela is the handshake and hallway chit chat that Maduro had with France's Macron yesterday at the COP 27 being held in Egypt.  Besides the nauseous images, at least for yours truly, it is necessary to try to figure out what is really going on.

First, what the hell was Maduro doing at Sharm El-Sheikh? He could go there because he did not risk to be detained. Hopefully his two airbus will not be forced to land in a country where there is no dictator like Egypt's Al Sisi. And yes, Maduro went with two big CO2 producing airplanes to Egypt whereas normal head of states go there in a single small plane or, god forbid, fly commercial. The COP 27 is set to deal with climate change and environment. Maduro blamed capitalism in his speech conveniently forgetting to mention that Venezuela has been a major producer of oil for capitalism, under Chavez in particular. He also forgot to mention the considerable environmental damage that the wrecked state oil company PDVSA has done under his tenure, in particular. And never mind the destruction of Venezuela's share of Amazonia due to savage gold prospection, directed by the Venezuelan army in particular.

But I digress, back to the handshake. It seems that there was a part of improvisation and part of manipulation in that fortuitous (?) encounter. From one of the videos I saw it seemed clear that the president of Guinea Bissau was sort of directing Macron towards Maduro. Guinea Bissau is one of the stopping points for drug trafficking between Venezuela and Europe. Just saying. So they met and talked for about one minute. Not to be accused of cheap anti Maduro I will give you the pro regime feed of Telesur:

#COP27 | Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro and France's President Emmanuel Macron hold a dialogue at the 27th United Nations Climate Summit in Egypt. pic.twitter.com/XLHKOODxMq

— teleSUR English (@telesurenglish) November 7, 2022

Now the question is why Macron was so "friendly". Before I go on let me reassure everyone reading this, mostly if there is by happenstance a chavista: the profound distaste of Macron (or almost any western leader) towards Maduro has not changed. In fact it is probably worse than ever now that Maduro is trying to gain leverage with the little bit of oil Venezuela could produce soon.  Blackmail by any other name. Thus what we witnessed there is real politik at its worst, just like Biden visiting the journalist slayer meat processer Mohammed ben Salman (little good it did him but well...)

The Ukraine war happened; energy transition cannot be done in a day; Russia is to be punished; oil and gas must be found somewhere. Even though Venezuela is no condition to double its meager oil output in a year, it is still necessary to ingratiate yourself with the Venezuelan regime since the boycott of Russia will go on for as long as Putin will hold. And lo and behold, the French surely must know about the maneuvering of Chevron to recoup its lost investment, all this supported by the Biden administration willing to trade prisoners with Maduro.  Macron had to run before France's oil giant Total is locked out of a possible reopening of Venezuela. By the way, Total has also a lot of investment to recoup in Venezuela.

So that explains why Macron allowed himself or was forced to be seen with Maduro. I will also remind folks that the Maduro regime was very abusive a year ago with the French embassy in Caracas, cutting off for weeks water and electricity. But that humiliation seems to have been forgotten. Now, about the consequences.

Macron has started getting flack from French press, after years of saying that Maduro is a criminal (Maduro is still a criminal, a hand shake cannot cure this, it just dirties the other hand).  Of course, ever the chavista hard core supporter Jean Luc Melenchon went with his own gleeful tweet saying that oil made people [Macron] polite.  Macron just trashed one of the main political points against the extreme left Melenchon which was his inability to condemn human rights abuse in Venezuela.

But the bad press of Macron really does not register much in France. After all it did not make it in the nightly news that I eagerly awaited yesterday. Only today some comments, not favorable, started appearing though l'Opinion thinks that it was a trap set for Macron who dealt with the best it could.. No, the worse of the whole fiasco is that Maduro got for almost free what he so craved for: recognition, some form of legitimation. That the French president shakes hands with a criminal undoes years of work of US presidents, British prime ministers, German chancellors, etc.

The fact of the matter is that Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed everything causing among other things a panic rush for oil survival [rather than telling the truth to the people about why we must suffer a cold winter at home this year: 1940 heroism is not fashionable anymore]. The big game is barely getting started and for all that we know if given cover we might even see Maduro abandon Putin! Chavismo is venal enough for that if the price is right. Then again Maduro and Putin may be laughing their heads off at Biden and Maduro. 

To end this distasteful moment in a sourer note, there is another reason besides oil why Biden and Macron and soon others, are to talk with Maduro. This one has apparently won his fight with the Venezuelan opposition which is more divided than ever.  They all coalesced to support Guaido against Maduro 3 years ago. From the start the regime through corruption and violence has managed to divide the opposition to the point that now it offers a sickening panorama to observers. Not only many spend more time attacking Guaido than Maduro, but the opposition looks unable to prepare for upcoming presidential elections that on paper it should win. It is simply dumbfounding seen from DC or Paris.  

There may be a vote in a year and yet the opposition is unable to come up with a primary system to pick a unity candidate. We even have the sorry sight of more and more once upon a time believed strong opposition figures meekly calling for the end of sanctions against the higher ups in the regime.  And Biden, Macron et al. should get cold this winter to help such a bunch of incompetents?  I cannot bring myself to blame them.

____________________________

added later, further hunting trophies for Maduro

And finally, here's exchange with @antoniocostaps.

For all of of Maduro's charm offensive, he missed an opportunity to talk up Venezuelan oil when the Portuguese prime minister complained about high energy prices.

"Visit whenever you want. We have lots of Portuguese," he says. pic.twitter.com/xnTIPkMcRU

— Joshua Goodman (@APjoshgoodman) November 8, 2022

The Portuguese Prime minister with Maduro telling him to visit "'cause we have a lot of Portuguese in Venezuela". Classy....

And next with John Kerry who apparently forgot that his country has a 15million$ reward for bringing in Maduro. Though admittedly Kerry does not seem as cheerful as Macron or Costa seemed to have been.

PS/ gets better, State announced that Maduro crashed a meeting where Kerry was participating. It seems more like in line for Maduro: the only people that agree to meet with him are those receiving a stipend in oil from Venezuela.

There was an election a week ago

 After years of covering in detail Venezuelan elections I would be remiss not to mention last Sunday regional "elections" in Venezuela. Then again, as I put in a tweet, the same day Chilean elections seemed more important to follow. At least for me.

Once upon a time, say before 2015, one could still find enough information, enough semi reliable data to look for trends in Venezuelan voting results. I did not do too bad in my analysis predictions. But after the debacle of 2015 the regime made sure no vote meant anything anymore. I am not going to go into tiresome details. Remember, they are mostly pre electoral fraud, from happily banning candidates the regime dislikes to go all out and take over political parties. Amen of all the treachery in voter registration, excessive use of state means for chavista campaign, etc, etc. On election day you keep having all the unfair interventions from the army forcing people to vote, holding results, etc, etc.

All very commie banana republic.

Thus since 2015 I stopped wasting time in electoral analysis. The more so that in addition to the great heights in election treachery we have a large abstention movement and probably up to 4 million Venezuelan voters in exile, and thus with no option.

This being said, there are a few details worth commenting.

First, there was after many years the return of serious electoral observers. Namely proven and tested teams. There are only three sources of reliable electoral observation today: teams set up by the UN, the OAS or EU. Some countries I suppose would also do serious electoral observation, democratic countries like Japan or Canada. Maybe even the Carter Center. But that is all, and certainly not the countries that the regime invited previously for what is at best electoral tourism (Russia or Bolivia, for example).

Why did the regime accepted the European Union to send an observing team? This is the question, the more so that as expected the preliminary report under diplomatic language indicated that the vote of last Sunday was shit.  I suppose that the regime having survived three years of sanctions and pressures and general exhaustion about Venezuela assumed that the world would recognize Maduro if this one held semi palatable elections with a selected few handouts to the opposition, preferably to the opposition that it has tried to build through payoffs. Well, if that was the reason, it did not work out.

Another reason is the need for the regime to reach some form of agreement with the US so that some sanctions are lifted.  But the regime, to begin with, is incapable of seriousness when it is negotiation time. Whether the regime offers decent elections is not really an issue there, though it could help. But as the scorpion crossing the stream on the back of the toad, the regime cannot help itself and it will sabotage any opening, be it formal negotiations or semi fair elections.

This new PR failure behind us, what else can we rescue from last Sunday?  As expected the regime won handily but not that great. Abstention was here and with a copious dose of opposition division it still lost on the total vote but carried all states but 3, while loosing a bunch of town halls.  In fact that townhall fall back should be worrisome for the regime: for once the regime did better in big cities than in the country side towns where the opposition struck a few interesting wins. The provinces, apparently, are starting to be tired of being taken for granted.

Thus, in spite of all the treachery, the regime vote count keeps sliding down, fast enough that it cannot be hidden.

What else is worth noting? The opposition division. This one is basically 4 fold, believe it or not.

First, the 4 million + overseas. Where would those go were presidential elections carried tomorrow?

Second, the chronic abstention. Their number look good if you count in the 4 million abroad. But the fact of the matter is that some are starting to vote again. Why? Because the abstention promoters offer nothing in exchange, and people want solutions, not speeches on morality.

In third we have the pro Chavez opposition. Those are a set of individuals that came from the opposition but decided to try to reach political deals with the regime. All for naught of course, nobody is fooled. In last year parliamentary election the regime had to fudge some dubious vote count to make sure a handful of them would get elected! But they are very useful for the opposition in a way I am surprised people do not talk about. Last week they got more votes than what we could have expected. Me thinks that many chavistas voted for them as a protest vote against Maduro! And remember: when you have been attached for two decades to a political idea, the first vote against is the more difficult; it gets easier after. And those fake opposition parties are a good stepping stone for transitioning.

Finally we have the remains of the real opposition, those that did jail, were tortured, are in exile, whatever. They did not do too good, though they took 1/6 of townhalls and two states. That is, a little bit more than last time and in spite of abstention exile and divisions. For better or for worse, the so called G4 remains the true opposition and is still recognized as such after last Sunday show.

That is all.  We'll see what's next.

Epic lies, epic Covid in Venezuela

As weeks go by the situation in Venezuela gets worse. Reports that reach me are frightening.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote a long tweet thread in Spanish and with new updates I think it is a time to make it a text in english.

Me van a perdonar por esta serie de hilos en matrioshka sobre la incompetencia del régimen frente al Covid, pero cada día hay más barbaridades que agregar.
Hoy tenemos que reportar lo de @DrodriguezVen al rechazar la entrada de #AstraZeneca, bordeando la locura asesina. https://t.co/DaYP9rqZke

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) March 25, 2021

The thread was taken and retaken as a matryoshka doll as new stuff occurred; so I'll try to give the linear story below.

ONE YEAR AGO/ COVID LANDS

In what has probably been the only good measure taken against the Covid19 pandemia, the regime locked its border like no one else. I suppose that the regime knew it could not face the pandemia and thus its only weapon was to lock up every body so as to have the lowest possible spread. And yet two despicable acts accompanied it. First, it was made an unnecessarily stringent lock up as there was a major gas shortage. Confinement made that shortage less obvious. But what was truly despicable was the regime talking of "imported" cases. In its daily notes the regime mentioned something like this "today we have detected 5 new cases, 4 of them being imported". The meta message was that Covid was sent to us from overseas, that the good Venezuelan people could possibly not have anything to do with it. In the first weeks the number of "imported" cases tended to be the highest of the two. Until eventually the charade had to stop: with airports closed for weeks how could you still talk of "imported cases"?

PANDEMIA CATCHES UP 

There is well over a million Venezuelan refugees in Colombia. As Colombia was struck down with Covid, many considered coming back to Venezuela either because doors were shutting in Colombia or because they needed to go back to Venezuela to take care of those left behind: namely the grand parents and the grand kids they were taking care of while the adults tried their luck away. On their return at the border they were mercilessly put in concentration camps, with little food or hygiene to quarantine. And they were subjected to scorn for having left the homeland, and whatnot.

COVAX TIMES

The end of 2020 came with the promise of vaccines, in particular the COVAX program from the WHO to provide dosis at reasonable prices or even free to poor countries so they could at least vaccinate medical personnel; teachers, etc....  But there was a problem with that program: you had to be up to date on your WHO membership and that meant Venezuela would have to pay 11 million dollars late fees/dues dollars to have access. Chavismo is now a constant dead beat, and the WHO is no exception. Instead of sending a check (the regime was at the time talking of buying new army weaponry) the regime tried to use the excuse of the US sanctions as to why they could not pay. Then started the leitmotiv "we cannot vaccinate because the US will not let us do it". Which is of course total despicable bull shit.

CARVATIVIR: whitcraft?

In January came the Carvativir fiasco. As Covid cases kept growing the government was in need to show some initiative. What did they do? Another great business opportunity. Through two unknown guys, with no CV in the hard sciences needed for that, and a brand new company, Maduro announced on TV some mysterious drops bases on plant oils that prevented and cured Covid. The world was soon going to be told about the virtues of Carvativir! And yet here we are still awaiting for the data with bated breath.

OPPOSITION TRIES ITS BEST

The regime excuse for no money was countered by the opposition who offered to ask the US to unfreeze some assets so that vaccines could be bought. An initial agreement was reached with over 300,000 test kits that would be distributed to a list of centers. The kits arrived, the regime took over them, decided to distribute them wherever they liked and....  we never heard of them anymore. Why? Because the regime does not want to publish any real numbers of any medical sistation, and this has happened for many years already. More importantly, they took the tests to be used for the higher up of the regime. Privatized so to speak. Bloomberg reports that only 3,000 or so results were reported. No word on the 300,000 other tests. This will have grave consequences on the willingness of donors in the future since trust is lost to unrefrained cronyism and absolute irresponsibility.

FOR THE REGIME ALL IS BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY

Before I go on it is important to understand what is going on with the regime on Covid matters

• Denial. Numbers can never be published. It is not happening to us. The US invented it.
• All must be controlled by the regime. Thus any help from any donor has to be given to regime personnel to do as it pleases, namely distribution as pro regime propaganda.
• The opposition is the great villain: any initiative0 or offer of collaboration by the opposition must be refused, sabotaged and what not.
• And greed, so much greed. One recent example is that a new laboratory without any track record on medical analisis and less on Covid got the exclusive privilege to offer mandatory COVID PCR test to incoming travellers who must pay 60$ IN CASH at arrival at the airport, regardless if they did a test before boarding, if they have been vaccinated, etc. 60 USD in cash, no credit card, no local currency, greenbacks or nothing.

So it should not come as a surprise that we have the first reports of blackmarket vials of vaccines who can come only out of the doses already entering the country under strict regime control.

SPUTNIK V COMETH

The vaccine era finally arrived and started with the Russians testing their Sputnik vaccine on Venezuelans. Nothing has been published about the results, that I know of. But I also know first hand that some testing was seriously made from a scientist friend that received a dose. OK, so lets give the benefit of the doubt here. What is not to be doubted is that when the first lot of Sputnik came for actual vaccination the priorities were clearly announced by the regime: security personnel AND medical personnel, named in second. There was a brief scandal when we learned that the representatives of the illegal national assembly elected in December 2020 were among the first ones to be vaccinated. Some were dumb enough to show their selfies of the moment until told to remove them from social media fast.  But Maduro was dumb and crass enough to brag on TV that he did get his shots... Meanwhile doctors and nurses were left without vaccine, scavenging for soap and masks.

Ah! I was forgetting! 95% of Cuban personnel in Venezuela is already vaccinated, ahead of Venezuelan doctors. That is what happens to you when you accept to become a colony..... Note: vaccinated NOT by the alleged Cuban vaccines in development but by the regime purchased ones.

THE HOI POLOI STARTS GETTING SOME

Eventually the regime felt the need to vaccinate some besides the generals and Maduro's entourage. So we were treated to the first videos of elderly being called to get vaccinated. And propaganda it was......

In this thread I explained how 529 doses of Sputnik were distributed only to those who owned a "carnet de la patria". That is, if you are not chavista or have not surrendered to chavismo, you get no vaccine. Think about this for a minute.....

We all knew the vaccination of Venezuelan people would only happen as long as the regime could gain political advantage from it. This video from "journalist" @YndiTorregrosa shows you how far the regime will go for its propaganda and social control. https://t.co/oCq8qsHnL9

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) April 10, 2021

ASTRA ZENECA BANNED

Russian and dubious Chinese vaccines are arriving dropwise. COVAX worked out and agreement between the regime and the opposition to bring in Astra Zeneca AND equipment for the logistic process in distributing the vaccines. Yes, that is right, the current situation of Venezuela requires that in addition of bringing in vaccines donors should also bring in refrigerators, power plants and what not since Venezuela cannot even guarantee enough electrical power. No Pfizer ever here. Well, Venezuela was going to receive over 10 million doses of Astra Zeneca vaccine, the easiest one to handle and that could cover at least the main cities, ALL medical and teaching personnel and the elderly. At the last minute Maduro used the excuse of the troubles with AstraZeneca to ban it outright and announce that it would be substituted by the Cuban ones, not even in Phase III testing, that is, improper to massive vaccination (amen on whether Cuba can produce enough of them).

The opposition was prompt in denouncing the regime who prefers to see thousand more die of the virus than to accept that the opposition gets any credit in the fight against the pandemia.

THE SCARLETT LETTER

Meanwhile as vaccines are delayed, the pandemia advances. A creative chavista mayor decided to make it public and notorious to identify the homes of those who had a Covid case inside....  Words fail me on that one.......

One of the primitive mayors of my home state.
Any home in Sucre were a #covid case is reported will be plastered with a notice. Any attempt at removing will mean removal from the regime handouts programs, essential in impoverished Sucre county.#BringInYourInnerFascist https://t.co/PgizBWJjuC

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) April 7, 2021

IT IS FREE ONLY IN VENEZUELA

The lies of the regime are so linked that you need new ones daily to try to escape being exposed as a liar yesterday. The latest atrocious lie comes from Vice Delcy who tells on national TV that only Venezuela gives vaccines for free while infamous capitalist countries like the US demand payment. Once again, in front of such blatant lies I remain speechless....  Though I can point out that it does not matter whether vaccines are free in Venezuela since there are none to be found.....

 AND MORE DISASTERS

I need to end this entry. There is so much more to say. El Pais of Spain has an excellent summary of recent problems which should tell the regime that the world is watching the crimes it is committing.  Among those:

• The private business organization FEDECAMARAS offered the regime to pay and bring in vaccines for its own workers. It even accepted a fee of 20% cut of these vaccines for the regime at its discretionary use. Yes, that is right, private enterprise would pay for the vaccines of its employees and their family and pay for an extra big chunk of vaccines for a regime that should be vaccinating all for free. The regime refused.
• El Pais is worried about the sudden desperate search for oxygen in Venezuela. Social media is awash with people looking for oxygen tanks anywhere at any cost. That is a sure sigh that the Covid economic is now out of control in Venezuela. And the lack of oxygen supplies is simply impossible to solve. Even less by the regime.
• El Pais also wonders how come that since Russia and China are supposedly close allies they are not sending as many vaccine doses as they are sending elsewhere.

SO?

Time to stop for today. Just a few thoughts about the nastiness and why the regime is handling so badly the epidemic in Venezuela.

The first thing that strikes us is the secrecy about it all, the great length the regime takes to hide the tragedy. Not only numbers now come from independent medical observers, and well, well above those of the regime, but we are not told about the mass burials in unmarked graves, the near impossibility that crematorium have in processing all the demands they receive as Covid death are cremated, not buried. I know of two cases from people relatively close who had loved ones die and all the travails they had to endure to recover the bodies (and I will spare you the illness stories and how they ended up in public hospitals or the Poliedro which are now little more that thanatoriums). 

The second striking thing is that the pandemia is all about politics. The regime absolute refusal to get help from the opposition and international donors is simply put genocidal. The regime pretends that all be given to them, all sanctions lifted, etc. while at the same time it demonstrates once and again its incompetence, its sectarism, the waste it would be if by chance donors would be foolish enough to cave in their demands. That is, give in or not to the regime, it is clear that the death toll will be similar.

Another damning thing is the extremely poor scientific and medical means of the regime. From inventing Carvativir to ban Astra Zeneca for problems irrelevant for the current Venezuelan health system YOU KNOW that those in charge of the pandemia have fucking no idea of what they are doing. Explanation? Those in charge are political hacks who would not know if an astrazeneca beast from an oxygen diving gear.

These are crimes against humanity that need to be documented for future use.

Chavismo reshifting roles

 Now that we have a novel National Assembly, who is speaking for chavismo? (1)

One "surprise" is that Jorge Rodriguez is the new chair of the nNA. Well, not that much of a surprise since he was sent to run while he was occupying high positions inside the chavista nomenklatura. He has been mentioned enough in this blog so I will not review his extended life serving chavismo. From an alleged impartial electoral umpire in the early 2000 elections he ended up as Vice President of Chavez in the many positions he occupied. He, and his sister currently the vice president (2), are now the main operators of Maduro, sort of representing the civilian side of chavismo.

Carvativir as the symbol of Covid Maduro's failure

It is now common knowledge that Venezuela's dealings with Covid19 have been a failure. The best that can be said is that the regime has bet secretly on herd immunity because, well, there is nothing else the regime can do.

And yet in the midst of this abject failure to preserve the health of Venezuelans, the regime manages to outdo itself in its abjectness. Now Maduro on TV has revealed himself a snake oil promoter. Rarely I have been as angry at the regime than after seeing the clip below.

Well, against his incapacity to deal with COVID and much less to vaccinate the country @NicolasMaduro has decided to sell snake oil. With "carvativir" he claims that 10 drops under your tongue every 4 hours will kill 100% of the coronavirus.
Let's delve: https://t.co/0CpLkxz0Eb pic.twitter.com/Rms6HYcN8v

— daniel duquenal (@danielduquenal) January 25, 2021

What is behind all of that charade?

Same old, same old for chavismo?

 So, chavo/madurismo has all in its hands (1). No Venezuelan government in history had so many levers of power in its hands. All the formal state institutions are now controlled by the regime except a handful of state houses and town halls. But those are restricted on their means, heavily supervised and thus almost insignificant in their potential actions. What makes this one more of a dictatorship than any past one is the complete control on press and media, and the economic control that no government in Venezuela ever had. That these controls broke the country is another matter, though it happened because of these controls.

Not at a cross roads

The election that is held today in Venezuela is not bringing the country at a crossroads, it is the end of a long and painful involution. 

A whirlwind start of year

Over a month and a half without writing...

Then again I learned the limitations of writing from outside of Venezuela. January and February have been so eventful that just thinking seriously about the implications of the events was not possible: something came right along to cancel any prediction or conclusion one may have had (or at the very least to force a review). I like to think about things because I like to have a reasonably definite opinion. Over the years I think this served me well. This January I would have had to change more than once..... And I observed that many journalists did not bother correcting themselves (I am looking at you NYT, among others but you were a repeat offender).

Then again I was very active on twitter, the only way to follow the cascade of events.

So perhaps it is time for a summary of sorts now that things flow at a more normal pace.

Tug of war

I was distracted with other issues, so let's have a quick catch up, in what seems to be now the usual mode, item by item.

What is the legal status of Juan Guaido?

Venezuela as moral bankruptcy of the left: seeking "dialogue" at this point is supporting Maduro

Before I go into this I need to clarify the meaning of some terms least people go all bonkers. What I call left is strictly people that are to the left of European social democrats or US liberals.  Myself I politically gravitate between social democrat /liberal and center. Though if the candidate is appealing I have crossed the line more than once.  One of my griefs against Reagan is that he turned decisively Liberal US into a dirty word. Liberals were the heirs of a great tradition of free enterprise and social responsibility; now rednecks toss around Liberal in the same sentence as Commie. And that has been so damaging...

The reason of this rant type of entry is that suddenly out of nowhere some people are proposing that the regime and the Venezuelan opposition "dialogue" again.  At this point in time offering that as the lone idea to bring peace to Venezuela is to mock's people's intelligence. And worse, it does give Maduro some time to recoup and charge again.

Misinformation galore wars: separating the wheat from the chaff

It has been raining political analysis, misplaced opinions, and whatnot, specially from the foreign press, leftists and what not who just learned how to place Venezuela on a map (if that much).

Let's take it in an occamish manner and answer a few questions (keeping in mind idiocies spewed from the left, the leftist press as the worst offender to one's intelligence!)).

Who is Juan Guaido?

And so we reached January 13, to everybody's great surprise

What has been remarkable in the last three days is what DID NOT happen. What happened was not necessarily meaningful, nor did it solve any problem but it contributed to set the base line for the next weeks, until January 23 unless the regime cracks down before. (1)

What happened was that Maduro did swear in at the high court (TSJ). As if his word had more value than Venezuelan currency.

And in the next two days the opposition at the National Assembly started the process to declare itself as the new government since Maduro election is not recognized and he did not swear in as the constitution demands. So he does not exist and any paper with his signature as of January 10 is worthless.

January 9, the eve of "10 de enero"

The fateful day is in a couple of hours.  A brief review of where we stand at. In no particular order.  But first, the way the main drag of Carcas was covered today (and I presume other venues).

Toda la avenida Bolívar de Caracas forrada con pendones de “Yo Soy Presidente”, dándose poder de algo que no es.

Al menos, yo no lo reconozco ni reconoceré #9Ene #YoSoyPresidente pic.twitter.com/P2DXL1nme7

— Luis Gonzalo Pérez (@luisgonzaloprz) 9 de enero de 2019

The banner reads "I am president" with an hashtag, you know, to make it more contemporary.

Reviewing the "10 de enero" myth: the end of the road

Three weeks ago I was commenting how dire the situation was as the fateful date of January 10 approached. Today things are clearing up and we may get surprises.

First, a brief recall.
1) An illegally elected Maduro on May 20 needs to be sworn in by the National Assembly.
2) the NA powers have been voided by the high court TSJ in an illegal way. No law passed by the NA is valid. Yet the swearing in itself is not a law and thus there is no way to annul the NA on that prerogative. 3) Maduro will not go to the AN for swearing in because not only he cannot do so legally but he cannot appear to be caving in to the NA legitimate demands.  You could talk about the Mexico wall deadlock, but you ain't seen no nothing compared to the deadlock here since 2015.
4) The NA cannot compromise with Maduro because his election was outside of the constitutional requirements, both in date and organization. If a fraction of the opposition would break away to make a new majority pact with chavismo representatives (absent since late 2015) it still would be illegal and that portion of the opposition would have no chance ever to get votes in future elections.

The "10 de enero" myth

Chavismo has a way to turn things into myth even though they have not happened yet. They even do so unaware.  The latest is what will happen on January 10.

Technically, and constitutionally, it is very simple. Maduro "reelection" last May not having been made according to form is not legal. In addition he must be sworn in by the National Assembly on that date for his next term to be legal. Let's pass on all the past technicalities that make Maduro an illegal president all the way to the death of Chavez. Let's just focus on that January 10 dead line.

The Venezuelan opposition reaches the deep end (2): the Albán effect

Note: I was going to write a brainy post of unrequested advice as to what the opposition should do in the coming weeks. But fortunately I procrastinated some and then there was a whirlwind of events that would have made that projected post nearly useless. The part 1 is still valid. Let's see how long does part 2 stands the test of time.
-------------------------------------------------------

The events that have shaken the political table these last two weeks are the following:

The downfall of Maduro can only come from outside

And by that I do not mean the marines landing in La Guaira tomorrow. It will not happen. We are in the XXI century and things are done in other effective ways, as needed.

The title comes because the opposition is STILL collapsing further, in an hopeless slump that stops it from benefiting from any bonus point undeservedly thrown its way.

Venezuela as a permanent problem

Now that all objective observers have concluded that this is a military narco kleptocracy, what are we going to do about it? This is keeping many people awake at night, but not enough of them. Andres Oppenheimer writes today a piece that underlines that dealing in Venezuela is an urgent matter, that times works in favor of Maduro.  He makes fair points and space limit probably did not allow him to develop. But that is where blogs come in handy.

Hurriedly to illegality

One tries to take a couple days off for a "procedure" and one comes back to yet a new spectacle of the absurd.

Amazing mess, how sweet you are

This will be short and sweet. It may be a couple of days before I can post again.