Saturday, March 30, 2013

Should Capriles win?

As threatened in the previous post we should look at the worth for Capriles to win next April 14, whether he can win being a moot point.

The situation today is an order of magnitude worse than what it was in October 2012. For all practical purposes the Venezuelan currency is worth less than a third than it was 6 months ago. Oil revenue shows no sign of improving in the next future. We are all but out of milk, and quite low in many other staples. The new labor law as expected is killing whatever productivity was left. And of course  the promises of Chavez for last year are forgotten by politicians while el pueblo may not have forgotten....

To this you add that chavismo without Chavez has already proven to be an heterogeneous coalition veering towards violent account settlements while the only potential umpire for their mess, the army, is revealed more corrupt than expected, just a mere faction of chavismo.

What can Capriles do starting April 15? There is a short lists of stuff he HAS TO do in his first 100 days: increase price of gas; free price controls on many food items or at least allow for a substantial increase in those staples; stop plenty of fraudulent contracts, from arm deals to CADIVI fraud; start dispensing with Cuba and ALBA countries....

How do you think this is going to work out? How long until chavismo unchains a Caracazo bis, or an outright reckless military coup? Amen of assassinating Capriles to call for a new election.

And yet....

We must root for a Capriles win as I, for one, have the feel that he is offering himself into immolation and we should, at the very least, support his noble sacrifice. Yes, noble is the right word at this point.

And also we must root for him because the alternative is unacceptable. A Maduro victory will be the final play for complete control by Cuba over Venezuela. That is, Maduro, having now been proven a Cuban apparatchik with pictures of his training years in Cuba and all, will try to "fuse" Cuba and Venezuela at the benefit of Cuba. At least under Chavez the fusion was made because Chavez thought that once Castro death was announced he would be the boss. Yes, he was naive in his own ways. We know now that Maduro has always been a mole.

But Maduro will not have a free road since too many interests inside chavismo will not agree surrendering to Cuba.  Thus the way to major turmoil without any happy ending, as the chavista pueblo demands what it was promised. A Maduro election will surely end up in more violence because Maduro will need to use more repression than Chavez did; and he already gave us quite a few hints of what is in store in his three months tenure.

We thus need to do our best to make sure Capriles gets as many votes as possible, even if he loses, because the only hope for a peaceful transition is a strong opposition to chavismo to which a faction of chavismo may latch when push comes to shove inside chavismo.  And if Capriles wins, it also applies as Capriles best bet for political survival is a chavismo division.

So stop saying stupid stuff that "we might as well let Maduro win so he will have to deal with Chavez mess". That sounds good, that makes you feel avenged or something.  But for those in Venezuela struggling to survive it sounds like a death sentence. Grow up and do the good fight: YES, Capriles should win if anything because it is the least bad option, the only one that may avoid a civil war.


  1. kernel_panic3:34 PM

    Now, this is the scenario that worries me: capriles wins, however, chavismo still has te state grabbed by the gonads at every level, leaving capriles' power capped, the rojo rojitos start with el saboteo, or not even that, just plain ol' corruption, so nothing changes or it gets worse, finally, the country collapses and then they will say "look, that was made by capitalism, by la cuarta!!! nothing like that happened with our commander-president, socialism is the only way!!

    And bu, just like that, chavismo is "recharged and justified, just like el 13 de abril"

    What's your take on that, Daniel? :p

  2. Ronaldo1:37 AM

    Capriles can save the economy by stopping gifts to Cuba, Argentina, Iran, etc, by stopping the $billion purchases of Russian weapons, by increasing foreign investment, protecting property rights of people and businesses, increasing oil production, replacing Chinese workers with Vzla workers, providing work for Venezuelans, and so on. Just by opening the books of PDVSA and going after the $billions of funds stolen over the last 14 years, the blame can be clearly placed on Chavistas. These are options that Maduro cannot or will not consider. Maduro will continue the same old, same old.


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