Friday, April 26, 2013

Capriles officially does not recognize the election result

You may say that there is no surprise there, but the intention of last night special TV show of Capriles was to announce officially that under the conditions set by the CNE the opposition will not accept to participate in the audit and that it will push forward to denounce in court the election, "impugnar" we call it here. In other words, the ante has been pushed up since last night.

The first problem here is that the Venezuelan electoral board, CNE, has yet to describe how the audit is going to proceed. Capriles set a deadline for Thursday, and the CNE has not sent, that we know of, even a phone call to ask for, say, 24 hours more. No. The dithering of the CNE, Thursday gathered but "unofficially" so no communique could be issued, was a mere taunt.

Since it is clear that the regime has no intention of doing a serious audit (1), the opposition has no other choice than to legally denounce the election and ask for a new one, or at the very least a repeat of all the questioned centers (2), if those one amount to a potential of enough votes to change the final outcome. That would require, and it is my guess, that at least 1 million voters are called back to vote to annul the thin Maduro "margin of victory" and give Capriles a 1 vote majority. Or something like that. Right there you can understand that every single center which voting is contested has to be fought to death to force a new vote.

But then again, say, if the opposition makes a case for more than 2 million voters to vote again, we might as well make the case for repeating the April 14 election altogether.  The paradox is that the regime may actually want to annul the election anyway, thus avoiding an audit that it knows it will lose, and even worse, an audit result that will question results for previous elections all the way back to 2004 recall election fraud........ At least, this is what the few chavista left with some common sense should push for as the least of all evils for them.

My guess is that the regime is going to let Capriles go to court, exhaust him as much as possible him there and avoid the audit. As a P.R. it will be a disaster but for those thugs it does not matter much as long as they remain in office, free of legal prosecution. We can expect on the shirt term increased repression, and grotesque stone walling.

But even the best of stone walling will not serve them well.

First, the simple act of "impugnar" is enough to throw a doubt internationally on the election results  As such, serious countries, will automatically avoid signing major commitments with a regime that could be found out to be illegal suddenly with the people coming after having an excellent excuse not to pay.

Second, Venezuela automatically becomes irrelevant in international forums, what has happened to Iran after Moussavi was robbed of his victory. Not that Iran was much relevant before but after the post electoral repression Iran had to dig in at home and Ahmadinejerk can only travel to countries like Venezuela or its ALBA clients.

Third, as the regime keeps stalling and Venezuela opposition brings its case to international courts, from electoral fraud to fascist lay off of public workers, its ability to function decreases and even the elite economic prospects start being affected, fostering further internal divisions inside chavismo as el pueblo realizes that a regime that is so "cara dura", stone faced, is not worth supporting. And thus, by the end of the year, the regime may have lost enough support that it is not inconceivable that the OAS decides to apply to it the Interamerican Chart for Human Rights (or even Mercosur demands the application of the Ushuaia agreements once Paraguay returns to the fold and gets its hoped for revenge against Maduro (3).

And I can keep evaluating the consequences  But I trust you get my drift, that it is only starting and that difficult days await us ahead. Do not forget that not only the regime has to deal with fraud accusations that are credible, but it has aggravated its case by closing down parliament for all practical purposes, and shown its true fascist nature in the crass manipulation of information by making up outright lies shown in cadena, while abusing all sorts of workers rights. Chavez could get away with some of that because many believed his claim of 4ta republica, sabotage and what not. But Maduro does not have that advantage: he inherits a public administration and a legal system that has been set by them, through 14 years, and that know they want to do without. Overseas, that is not acceptable (4). It is clear for all that the opposition does not have the means to perpetrate the crimes that the regime is trying to paint on it.

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1) Serious audit: having access to the voting books where all voters must sign and stamp their thumb prints. This is the only way to know who really voted, who had the right to vote, who voted more than once. In other words, this si where the fraud resides and why the CNE does not want to surrender the books for examination.

2) Questioned centers: this is where the opposition has unassailable grounds as there are even videos of electoral abuses that simply cannot be dismissed, such as chavista officials watching directly how people voted. And the protests originated early on Sunday 14 so the CNE cannot play dumb. Apparently there are enough reports of those "voto asistido", assisted vote, centers that the opposition claims that 1 million at least should be asked to vote again without pressure.

3) Maduro was caught red handed trying to interfere in Paraguay internal affairs, stirring the military to make a coup. I van assure you that once Paraguay returns in the Mercosur fold, they will not have forgotten that and at the first opportunity will demand the application of democracy clauses of Mercosur against Venezuela.

4) I am giving you a simple telling example. In Spain Rajoy has tried to accept Maduro "victory" after he was promptly brow beaten by threats against Movistar, Repsol and BBVA, big Spanish interests in Venezuela. Even though he was prompt in accusing the socialist in power to be too lax in with Chavez when he was in opposition  Thus El Pais, center left, goes as far as translating into English some of its major recent articles on the crisis, and strong editorials.

22 comments:

  1. Boludo Tejano2:52 PM

    Maduro was caught red handed trying to interfere in Paraguay internal affairs, stirring the military to make a coup. I can assure you that once Paraguay returns in the Mercosur fold, they will not have forgotten that and at the first opportunity will demand the application of democracy clauses of Mercosur against Venezuela.

    Say what you will about Paraguay, one cannot accuse Paraguayans of having only a short-term memory when it comes to politics. When Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay kicked Paraguay out of Mercosur for having followed the Constitution of Paraguay in deposing the Father of the Country, the reply from Paraguay was that this seemed like a return of the Triple Alliance- about a war which ended over 140 years ago.

    Which is why although Cristina Fernandez and Mujica tell Cartes, Mercosur ‘is waiting for the return of Paraguay, after the recent election in Paraguay, Venezuela will do all it can to prevent Paraguay from returning to the Mercosur fold. Should be interesting, where two Chavez allies have come out in support of something that Venezuela can only oppose. What arm-twisting will Venezuela employ? I am reminded of AIO's recent comment about the effect that Hugo Chavez's charisma- and Maduro's lack of charisma- has had on Venezuelan politics.
    Isn't it amazing - and terribly sad, as well as worrisome - how much difference charisma makes?

    Absent Thugo's charisma, the response of Venezuela's allies will probably be, "Donde están los reales?"
    Should be interesting.

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    1. OK, that was kind of surreal...can't remember the last time I was quoted here. (How you doing, Tejano? I can't complain, but I've got far less time to focus on Venezuela than I used to.)

      Don't underestimate the influence of the Triple Alliance War on the Paraguayan psyche. Not only did it decimate the male population and drastically change demographics (seems like 1/2 of the population has Gonzalez as a first or second surname, if not both), but the fact that the country held off two, and arguably three, superior powers for four years is a tremendous point of pride. Never mind that the military genius who made that impressive showing possible was also the insane leader who got them into the whole mess.

      I really am hopeful that Paraguay will attempt to stick it to the rest of these bozo "friends," though I'm hardly sanguine about their chances. Still, it's an opportunity to point out some major hypocrisy, as those who are willing to trash a partner for following constitutional procedures will probably be unwilling to castigate a bigger partner which can't/won't even run a fair vote.

      I do miss terere sometimes, but was never much of a fan of cocido. I have a friend who has posted several pictures of mbeju lately on Facebook, and that is making me really hungry.

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    2. Boludo Tejano2:33 PM

      AIO, your comment was worth quoting.It says a lot about what has transpired. I didn't realize you spent time in Paraguay. I consume a kilo of yerba mate a month, though my method of consumption would not pass muster down South. No mate, no bombilla. I pulverize yerba mate sin palo in a coffee grinder, add it to a cup of hot water, and let the yerba settle down to the bottom.

      My comments are way down, especially because I know so much less about Venezuela than those who comment on the 3 blogs. With a Cono Sur connection in this thread, I have some knowledge to add. And if there are PSFs, I no longer see the point of replying.

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  2. Dr. Faustus6:22 PM

    Oh my. This just came out on the newswires....

    "Venezuela's National Electoral Council's director Vicente Díaz said on Friday that he "understands and welcomes" a request filed by opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski to conduct a review of the voters' lists as part of the audit on 46% of the ballot boxes used in the presidential election held on April 14."


    This may be a game changer. What do the Chavistas do now? Condemn him? Expel him from the CNE? Afterwards, what do they say to the world press? If, after this, the CNE decides not to have a comprehensive audit, they will indeed look like they are trying to hide something. The Diaz statement may have been Capriles trump card all along. Good stuff! Just watch em squirm now. Oh my!

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    1. Michel Garcia7:04 PM

      Tibisay Lucena, Sandra Oblitas, and Vicente Díaz end their term this sunday (April, 28th, 2013). Of course, the NA can't replace him only and leave the other two, but they can pick 3 chavistas, or 2 chavistas and a "null".

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  3. The question is - whih 46% of the votes are they going to choose to recount or will it be fair and equitable. One thing is certain that trust and fairness are not part of your government's good attributes. How long before el pueblo decide they've had enough? Patience with these idiots must be wearing very thin

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  4. Milonga7:38 PM

    Go to hell, said one elected Paraguayan representative to Mujica and Cristina saying Paraguay was awaited to Mercosur with open arms http://www.elpais.com.uy/informacion/que-pidan-perdon-de-rodillas-cristina-y-mujica-y-despues-vamos-a-pensar-en-volver-al-mercosur.html (in Spanish, includes audio which is very funny to listen). The elected Cartes wants to return (people say he is pragmatic) but I bet he's going to have a lot of trouble internally. Anyway, Maduro is coming 28th June to Montevideo to receive the Mercosur presidency. We shall be waiting :-)

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    1. Boludo Tejano8:37 PM

      The Paraguayan deputy, among other things, tells Mujica and Evita III to go to hell.

      "¿Saben qué le respondo a Cristina y Mujica? Vayan al diablo. Vamos a pensar nosotros cuándo queremos volver al Mercosur...."

      Granted, President-elect Cartes may not take this tone with Mercosur, but what the deputy expressed is a common opinion in Paraguay.
      That a Paraguayan deputy/congressman is bitter about the way that Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay railroaded Paraguay out of Mercosur is not a surprise.

      What I found a surprise was the tone of the comments from this Uruguayan website. The comments that I read - which I assume are mostly from Uruguayans -were nearly all supportive of the Paraguayan deputy.
      Is this website not supportive of Mujica? Would this explain the comments that are supportive of the Paraguayan deputy? Or is this a fairly neutral source whose commenters include both pro-Mujica and anti-Mujica comments? [I would assume that most Uruguayans would have no problem with anti-Critsina remarks. Certainly President Mujica doesn't!]
      Thanks for this link Milonga. You have made life less of a milonga.

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    2. Milonga9:35 PM

      Boludo Tejano: El País is an opposition newspaper so mostly its readers are also opposition to Mujica. As normal nowadays, we´re about 50-50 although the Broad Front has fallen to 43% if voted today, but we have 22% of undecided, so we can still say that the country is divided in two halves. Everyone here is still pissed with the comment Mujica made when expelling Paraguay and introducing Venezuela thru the window: "The political is above the juridical (law)". That has not been easily forgiven, even by officialists. We still have a more democratic left, that have no shame in saying that Cuba and Venezuela are dictatorships. But Mujica is allied with the Communist Party, that is how he had a majority vote within the zillion-party Broad Front. That's with regards Mujica. As for Evita III, I believe 98,2% of Uruguayans hate her guts as well as the late husband's and have no trouble sending her to hell. Glad you liked the link!!

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  5. This is Mary - "mojopo" - and signatures are needed for the Hon. Jim Karygiannis in Canada who is bringing attention to the elections of April 14th. Please sign and share, and tweet your hearts out. http://bit.ly/ZF2og0

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  6. margareth6:44 AM

    Milonga I lived 6 years in Uruguay, tengo un hijo charrua. Every year we come in november till april in Punta. Have many local friends there and we see many friends overthere too from Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil.... a get together. Last year such a pity we couldn't go, so we had to rent our house, which I never wanted, it made me nervous when it was rented. So you live in Uruguay? Did you know that when Mujica gets mad he takes out his postizo? jajajaja

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  7. margareth7:04 AM

    "Milonga: The elected Cartes wants to return (people say he is pragmatic) but I bet he's going to have a lot of trouble internally. Anyway, Maduro is coming 28th June to Montevideo to receive the Mercosur presidency. We shall be waiting :-)"

    The senate, el senado, is very strong in Paraguay, so I think they will halt Cartes for some time. If anyone is interested one should look at maps from Paraguay in the beginnings of 1700, to get an idea how big Paraguay was with access to the sea. Also read the history of this country, I suggest "triple allianze"

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    1. Milonga9:14 AM

      The problem, Margareth, is that Cartes will have majority in the Senate (Lugo only obtained 3,3% of votes but will still be senator) and he sort of campaigned for a return of Paraguay to Mercosur. Still, I think he will have a lot of internal pressure and will think it twice if it's worth losing face with his nationals. That representative above recalled the Triple Alliance and said that they were betrayed twice by Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. And that is the feeling exactly in Paraguay. Let`s see how things develop. Anyway, as is normal in democratic countries, Cartes will only be president on August 15, they have a long transition period. Although invited, he said he will not be present in Montevideo on June 28 for the changing of the guard (presidency of Mercosur), saying he will not be president yet then. By the way, nobody understood why Maduro was inaugurated so quickly, in spite of him being a continuation.

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    2. Are we about to open a Charrua section for the blog? ;-)

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    3. Boludo Tejan2:40 PM

      This thread has been taken over by Cono Sur Connoisseurs. You Vill Haff to start offering Yerba Mate. Either in standard mate form or as tereré, which will satisfy those of Paraguayan tendencies. And which brand? Taragüi, for those of Argentine sensibilities, or Canarias for those of Uruguayan tendencies? Pararuayan? If the Paraguayans don't like brands from their country being left out, the Triple Alliance can always be revived. :)

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    4. Milonga2:58 PM

      haha, probably will be a good idea to open a Charrua section. (Yes, Margareth, I live in Montevideo - next time you come, let´s get together!!) Actually, there's a pattern going on. Suddenly, the judiciary is being attacked everywhere. There is a Brazilian analyst at Veja, Reinaldo Azevedo, who wrote that this is a Foro de San Pablo strategy http://veja.abril.com.br/blog/reinaldo/geral/governos-do-pt-e-petistas-apoiam-os-varios-assaltos-ao-judiciario-na-america-latina-trata-se-de-uma-estrategia/. So, we have to be alert to these symptoms at home, because I believe that things are changing and they are nervous all around and trying to impose things while they can.

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    5. margareth4:25 PM

      "Milonga: Maduro was inaugurated so quickly, in spite of him being a continuation."

      England excepted him as President..... where is Margareth Tatcher?

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    6. Collective bombilla is not my cup of tea. If I were living down there I would be considered truly anti social, carrying my own thermo of hot water, my own bombilla and refusing to share.

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  8. Island Canuck12:14 PM

    2 interesting news items this morning:
    The Supreme Court will take up to 3 months to deny the MUD's petition to annul the April 14th election:
    http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/130427/tres-meses-minimo-puede-tardar-el-tsj-en-decidir-la-impugnacion

    The CNE will announce the rules for the recount tonight at 9 PM in a long cadena which reportedly will not include the election books.
    http://www.noticierodigital.com/2013/04/eugenio-martinez-la-cadena-del-cne-sera-esta-noche-a-las-9pm-y-sera-larga/

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    1. Milonga3:05 PM

      Tonight at 9 when most people are having a ball???? Pathetic! And what took them so long? Doesn't the CNE have written rules? Then, it's not the most perfect voting system in the whole wide world to begin with!! These guys think we are all stupid, and I believe this is what has been keeping Capriles going and his supporters growing!! Nobody likes being made a fool of!! And as a Estado de Sao Paulo editorial says: Maduro acts as if he had 100% of the votes and that all those that voted for Capriles are not half the country but a bunch of thugs.

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  9. Anonymous1:02 PM

    Casto Ocando ‏@cocando:
    Jorge Rodriguez explica de manera ilustrativa cómo se hace el fraude electoral (ver minuto 7:20):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imUEobv0s-E

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  10. margareth4:20 PM

    Daniel: Are we about to open a Charrua section for the blog? ;-)

    The last Charrua died in Paris.

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