In other words, what we have been seeing for a long time: the more educated people are, the more dependent they are on their skills and hard work to make a living, the less likely they are to vote for Chavez, or his heirs for that matter. Let's look out now at the numbers.
For this I took the numbers of Capriles (democrats) and Maduro (chavismo) the rest being, well, irrelevant. I excluded the following states: Nueva Esparta because it is essentially urban now and as expected Capriles took it without trouble even though Morel was kicked out last December; Delta Amacuro and Amazonas because they have special conditions and their urban center is sort of urban; and Guarico which is a large state with two urban centers and some smaller ones but all too distant from the rest of the state to have any meaning as I intend for this report. In other words I have chosen the cities or metro areas which are prominent in a given state and which can exert a certain influence in the rest of the state. All in thousand of votes.
In no particular order let's start with the Andes region. There Capriles easily carried Tachira and Merida and did progress significantly in Trujillo. In fact the main city, to which I added the close but more rural Carvajal is a score for the democrats. Merida state has two urban areas, and in both Capriles won, the victory in El Vigia being rather important for the future as Merida/Ejido were already solidly on the democrat side. In Tachira it is difficult to really establish a metro area as the state is rather densely settled, and a lot close to the Colombian border. Thus arbitrarily I settled for the districts that include San Cristobal and Tariba on the North. Very ample victory here for Capriles even though the state was surprisingly lost last December.
|Andes Metro areas|
|The few "metro" areas of Llanos|
|Carabobo Aragua metro areas. Greater Valencia includes Naguanagua, San Diego, etc...|
And now on to the greater Caracas, the plat de résistence.
In yellow the Caracas proper metro area. No surprise here except that I was expecting a tie in Libertador. Apparently the blackmail on public employees worked out. What is important to note here is that the two districts rich in slums, Libertador and Petare (Sucre) give a tie together, showing clearly if you needed further proof that the message of the opposition is climbing the hills, slowly but surely.
In green, and in three parts, what I qualify as the Greater Caracas includes the dormitory cities of Caracas, those that have a rail line for commuters (Charallave/Cua), and those who show humongous lines one way or the other at rush hour. Overall as expected there is a chavismo victory there but a weakened one. If Vargas is still solid, the loss of Los Teques will have consequences. Guatire itself is finishing its final crossing over, probably next election, a possible major blow to chavismo.
Thus, the "big Caracas", the sum of Metro and Greater is now becoming solid opposition.
|Caracas metro in yellow, Caracas outer districts in military green; Big Caracas in orange is the sum of the two.|
And now on to "Oriente" and Bolivar which in October I thought would be the key of the election, a must win for Capriles. Well, he almost made it. True, Nuevas Esparta as indicated above went for Capriles, but Monagas and Sucre remained in the hands of chavismo though an explanation can be offered for Cumana where the local Voluntad Poplar under threat of jail defected to chavismo, possibly explaining the narrow victory of Maduro there. Nor is the victory in Maturin worth writing home about it.... The Bolivar state result is the most interesting. Apparently the fraud accusations of last December must have resonated since now Capriles carried the state and its two principal districts, Ciudad Bolivar now long held by the opposition and Puerto Ordaz making the switch.
|Oriente and Bolivar metro areas|
|Lara and neighbors. Barquisimeto metro includes Cabudare district.|
And for the last item, Zulia, inconceivably lost last December. Well, people have regrets. Not only Maracaibo is a resounding victory for Capriles but its Southern portion, San Francisco with a very militant chavista mayor, went over! For the sake of it I include Costa Oriental which include three districts around Cabimas, not fully urban in union but linked through interests. There the democrats confirm their ascendancy.
|Zulia two metro areas, Maracaibo +San Francisco and the three main districts across the bridge|