Tuesday, April 23, 2013

The April 14 2013 results: chavismo loses the metro areas, often big time

The more noteworthy result of Sunday 14 is that with electoral cheating and all, the regime admits that it has lost the control of the major urban agglomerations. That is, the victory of Maduro, if we can call that a victory, comes from places with less than a few dozen thousand folks. These places are much likely to depend on state largess for their survival (Misiones) whereas urban centers dispose of more qualified workers, more artisans, more professional  trades, more educated people and also more "rich" people, but now a relative minority in the new coalition the opposition is building.

In other words, what we have been seeing for a long time: the more educated people are, the more dependent they are on their skills and hard work to make a living, the less likely they are to vote for Chavez, or his heirs for that matter. Let's look out now at the numbers.

For this I took the numbers of Capriles (democrats) and Maduro (chavismo) the rest being, well, irrelevant.  I excluded the following states: Nueva Esparta because it is essentially urban now and as expected Capriles took it without trouble even though Morel was kicked out last December; Delta Amacuro and Amazonas because they have special conditions and their urban center is sort of urban; and Guarico which is a large state with two urban centers and some smaller ones but all too distant from the rest of the state to have any meaning as I intend for this report.  In other words I have chosen the cities or metro areas which are prominent in a given state and which can exert a certain influence in the rest of the state. All in thousand of votes.

In no particular order let's start with the Andes region. There Capriles easily carried Tachira and Merida and did progress significantly in Trujillo. In fact the main city, to which I added the close but more rural Carvajal is a score for the democrats. Merida state has two urban areas, and in both Capriles won, the victory in El Vigia being rather important for the future as Merida/Ejido were already solidly on the democrat side. In Tachira it is difficult to really establish a metro area as the state is rather densely settled, and a lot close to the Colombian border. Thus arbitrarily I settled for the districts that include San Cristobal and Tariba on the North. Very ample victory here for Capriles even though the state was surprisingly lost last December.

Andes Metro areas
Let's move on to the Llanos now. As expected all was carried by chavismo except for an interesting surprise  heavy with symbolism and implications for the future: Barinas capital, Barinas, was taken over solidly by Capriles. The home state of Chavez did not embrace his appointed successor....
The few "metro" areas of Llanos
Let's move now to the vote rich central states of Aragua and Carabobo. As expected Maduro prevailed in Aragua but the Maracay metro area went this time solidly for the democrats. The threat to jail P.J. Representative Nardo has backfired.  Carabobo is an interesting case because lost in December it was barely lost a week ago and it is one of the states where most irregularities are being reported  as I understand at this writing. Here I have separated Valencia from its belt and in both Capriles won.  This is very significant because it means that even heavy chavista areas like Tocuyito were not the vote reservoir they were supposed to be for chavismo.  As for Valencia itself I am a little bit surprised, expecting a wider margin for Capriles. But that is probably due to the divisive inheritance of the Salas, not settled yet.

Carabobo Aragua metro areas. Greater Valencia includes Naguanagua, San Diego, etc...

And now on to the greater Caracas, the plat de résistence.
In yellow the Caracas proper metro area. No surprise here except that I was expecting a tie in Libertador. Apparently the blackmail on public employees worked out. What is important to note here is that the two districts rich in slums, Libertador and Petare (Sucre) give a tie together, showing clearly if you needed further proof that the message of the opposition is climbing the hills, slowly but surely.
In green, and in three parts, what I qualify as the Greater Caracas includes the dormitory cities of Caracas, those that have a rail line for commuters (Charallave/Cua), and those who show humongous lines one way or the other at rush hour. Overall as expected there is a chavismo victory there but a weakened one. If Vargas is still solid, the loss of Los Teques will have consequences. Guatire itself is finishing its final crossing over, probably next election, a possible major blow to chavismo.
Thus, the "big Caracas", the sum of Metro and Greater is now becoming solid opposition.

Caracas metro in yellow, Caracas outer districts in military green; Big Caracas in orange is the sum of the two.

And now on to "Oriente" and Bolivar which in October I thought would be the key of the election, a must win for Capriles. Well, he almost made it. True, Nuevas Esparta as indicated above went for Capriles, but Monagas and Sucre remained in the hands of chavismo though an explanation can be offered for Cumana where the local Voluntad Poplar under threat of jail defected to chavismo, possibly explaining the narrow victory of Maduro there. Nor is the victory in Maturin worth writing home about it....  The Bolivar state result is the most interesting. Apparently the fraud accusations of last December must have resonated since now Capriles carried the state and its two principal districts, Ciudad Bolivar now long held by the opposition and Puerto Ordaz making the switch.

Oriente and Bolivar metro areas
To finish this entry let's go back tot he occidental part of the country.  There, only Falcon has two urban areas, Coro and Punto Fijo which I have enhanced somewhat with the next door district. One now is solidly democrat whereas the politicized employees of PDVSA still retain Punto Fijo.  In Lara the new coalition led by Henry Falcon keeps advancing. The metro of Barquisimeto and Cabudare are now solidly in the hands of the democrats and chavismo can kiss goodbye the mayor office of Irribarren district.  And finally my home district in Yaracuy, a curious amalgam of small districts for a metro area which used to come out even but now returns to the opposition.
Lara and neighbors. Barquisimeto metro includes Cabudare district.

And for the last item, Zulia, inconceivably lost last December. Well, people have regrets.  Not only Maracaibo is a resounding victory for Capriles but its Southern portion, San Francisco with a very militant chavista mayor, went over! For the sake of it I include Costa Oriental which include three districts around Cabimas, not fully urban in union but linked through interests. There the democrats confirm their ascendancy.

Zulia two metro areas, Maracaibo +San Francisco and the three main districts across the bridge
Final result: chavismo 3.995K democrats 4.641K, summing up all the districts above. More than 600K votes advantage Capriles. Three times the alleged Maduro overall advantage nationwide. Draw your own conclusions if you wish.


  1. Anonymous11:39 PM

    The examples of the failed idiocy of communism are there for all to see-ruined economies, police states- brainwashing and vicious cruelty/mass murder. The Chavista ideology is really just a cover for race hatred and anti-European paranoia and scapegoating. How many times will people believe that the CIA is making the lights go out or that Exxon is sneaking 900 foot long tankers in at night and stealing Venezuela's oil? How can you propagandize the murder rate when anyone can see it is poor Chavistas pulling the trigger? It is all a big party paid for with petrodollars that will vanish as the world converts to other types of energy. If you hate America, why do you fuel the capitalist machine with oil? Are you tired of waiting 3 hours in line to buy a loaf of bread because the CIA supposedly blew up the bread truck? Even gullible fools wake up sooner or later and politicians fall.

    1. "The Chavista ideology is really just a cover for race hatred and anti-European paranoia and scapegoating." ...and envy. As long as Chavez was stickin' it to rich landowners and nationalizing rich people's companies, the people didn't care that their trash was piling up, the electricity wasn't working and they had no job.

  2. Anonymous11:42 PM

    Would an analogous investigation into non-metro areas, show an 800k plus difference in favor of Maduro?

    This would complete the project.

    1. Yeah, well....it has taken me about 4 hours for this post and Secretary Kerry still has to make good the checks of his predecessors. I can work only so much pro bono :(

  3. Where is the source of that data, the CNE results or the democrats data from each voting ballot (a more trustworthy one)?

    1. As always I only use CNE sources. Whether true is not the matter. I use them for "trends" which they are good enough for.

      The thing is that I do not have a holistic approach like looking who is the biggest new party or how many city halls X carried. I peruse the results and let my trained intuition detect what truly seems to matter. And that is apparent only if you remember selected past results well so you can smell trends. In turn that helps me a lot when I try to make predictions, with a rather decent record so far. Some times people that focus too much on the global result miss the new tree species for the forest.... :)

  4. Anonymous1:02 AM

    Could some of the numbers from the rural areas also be skewed by difficulties in policing the voting stations, with more ease in adusting the vote?

    Some were obvious, like the example of the station where 800+/- voted in a station with only 500 +/- registered voters (don't remember the exact numbers), and they were 100% maduro. But there were possibly many others that were not as obvious, tacking on numbers here and there contributing to the total for maduro.

    For sure as you mentioned the rural areas are more dependent on missions. But the trend that was becoming obvious in this campaign was that those same dependent rural areas were increasingly discontent about the failures of many of those missions that were past campaign promises that dried up soon after. Capriles covered a lot of ground during the last year of campaigns, and I believe he was winning over many of those previously chavez favored rural areas.

    1. Of course. Capriles has gone from 44 to 50! That does not come only from urban areas! The point of this text is that chavismo has officially lost the cities.

  5. Indudablemente esta vision extrangera que bien define la realidad politica electoral del gobierno en relacion con los sectores democraticos en nada nos llena de esperanzas, pues son muchos los escemarios que aun siguen teniendo y debemos impulsar politicas propias que hagan a este pais mas productivo y prospero, pero de manera endogena; es decir, desde nuestra propia optica sin ingerencia de potencias extrangeras. Saludos!

    1. Mira, yo escribiré en inglés pero escribo DESDE el estado Yaracuy EN Venezuela. ¡Ni que extranjera, ni que coño!


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