Thursday, May 15, 2014

I am afraid there is no peaceful outcome for Venezuela anymore

The opposition political umbrella, MUD, decided to walk out of the dialogue table, a decision based on the regime intensifying repression, a decision based on the clear plain fact that the regime is not interested in any compromise, in any dialogue, in any power sharing, ANY. Actually, with the abusive repression of yesterday where even kids distributing flyers were arrested we can safely assume that at no point the regime saw the dialogue meetings as anything but a device to gain some time. That the first public hearing was a first time eye opener for many chavistas about the rottenness of the regime was enough to sink the dialogue if there was anyone in the regime serious about it.

We are thus entering the heart of the crisis.


Let's review the direct causes of the crisis today.

There is an economic cause: the country is bankrupt and there is no way it can escape its fate this time around.

Yet, the regime has decided to ignore that side and is instead preparing itself for a major default, for the deliberate ruination of any economic factor not aligned with the regime, of an apartheid where only regime followers will have access to goods, to ration cards, if needed. I am convinced for at least a couple of years that this was an objective. I suspect that at first they meant to create a large dependent class that would be enough to ensure political survival for decades. But the incompetence and thuggery and corruption of the regime made this a runaway experiment, and now, cornered, they are seriously considering going all the way, turning the economy into a few major concerns that will be able to sustain a survival system.

Today in Venezuela you cannot replace your cel phone even with a cheap one, you cannot find batteries for your car, elevators cannot be fixed because there is no money to buy the electronic control cards, your production lines are compromised because there is no spare parts, there is no electricity, there is no functioning infrastructures. We are regressing faster than what many think, regressing in a way that will make it much more difficult to come back. A regression that will be accentuated by the poor education exiting now, by the massive emigration of skilled workers.

There is a political trigger and it is not the death of Chavez. The direct causes of the crisis today were set years ago, in 2010 when the National assembly was neutered and when Chavez did his last big wave of expropriations that left us today without milk, without meat, without cereals. That year were planted the seeds of rebellion, a rebellion that would grow as people realize there was no political outlet, no economy to prosper within, and that rebellion would become the only available tool.

The political trigger was the electoral fraud of April 2013 when Maduro lost the election but managed to claim a 1% margin victory though ballot stuffing the traditional old way. That the opposition at first denounced effectively the fraud but then dropped it cannot hide that aspect. Even chavismo knows that they are a not a majority anymore, then the scare tactics, to postpone the end, to pillage whatever can still be pillaged.

The crisis is made worse because turning the initial fraud claim against April 2013 result into a meek acquiescence has divided irremediably the opposition into two camps, none with a leadership inspiring enough to unify it, for the time being anyway.

The crisis has been made worse because chavismo is a hotbed of intrigue, a fight between corrupt clans where a Cuban master is only interested in controlling the country regardless of the political concessions it should make at least inside chavismo. All decisions are made to preserve the regular stipend that the Castro criminals think is their divine right.

The crisis is made worse because the only international community that could do something, Latin America, is mired in its political contradictions, the fake democratic vocation in many a country. It is also too afraid that it will not recover the huge amounts of cash Venezuela owes. They think that if the regime lasts some more they may recover some of the money due; and they are afraid that a new regime that would expose the intense corruption and connivance between Venezuela and in particular Brazil and Argentina would have a perfect excuse to default with these countries. And create political trouble for them.

Thus all of these factors are leading us inexorably to more and more violence, to a radicalization of opposition factors that will inevitably turn into some form of terrorism while the true murderous nature of the Cuban educated and brained washed chavista leadership will be given free rein. The regime will be unable to control our homegrown terrorism. The regime will be unable to accept any political solution because their crimes will be too many. Someday the body of Maduro or whoever will replace him will be trying to escape a Qaddafi fate while the country will end up in anarchy like Lybia or Syria. There is where our Venezuelan spring is headed.

It is too late for the regime, it is in automatic beast mode which will devour itself.  The opposition has still a slight chance to make a difference if it can unify for one last willful democratic challenge. If they don't, both sides will irremediably sink as only the violent fringes will have what it takes for the long years of trouble ahead.

33 comments:

  1. Boludo Tejano10:53 AM

    Today in Venezuela you cannot replace your cel phone even with a cheap one, you cannot find batteries for your car, elevators cannot be fixed because there is no money to buy the electronic control cards, your production lines are compromised because there is no spare parts, there is no electricity, there is no functioning infrastructures.

    That is a damning paragraph in a country which according to the 2012 PDVSA Annual Report [page 10, part 1], exported 2.56 MBOPD at an average price of 103.42 $/BBL. That is $96 Billion in petroleum exports. [Informe de Gestión Anual 2012 (parte 1)]

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  2. Boludo Tejano10:57 AM

    Finally figured out how to get the PDVSA website to give a link: Annual Report 2012 .
    Previously, it would give the report, but just show PDVSA.com

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  3. "Someday the body of Maduro or whoever will replace him will be trying to escape a Qaddafi fate while the country will end up in anarchy like Lybia or Syria. There is where our Venezuelan spring is headed."

    Daniel,
    I think it's impossible for this to happen in Venezuela.
    As we speak,there's protests in both URBE(second day in a row) and URU(first time in more than a week) here in Maracaibo. While there's protests here, everyone's living their regular lives, the lines i can see in the 3 supermarkets from my window are larger than ever. Businesses are all open,malls are full, it's Juernes(pre-weekend) wich means clubs are gonna be full today.

    I just don't see something massive happening while kids are on twitter,or at the club,or watching soccer or businesses are all open and full and nobody can miss a day's work to protest(but sure as hell will miss when hungover). Venezuelans are not like the arabs,we are not arrecho and angry.In fact,we'd rather use the word "indignado" wich sounds more like "mildly discomforted" at the thought of supermarket lines,robberies and inflation.

    Time will tell,and as i always say: Please I want to be wrong!

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    1. I forgot to mention-t honorably mention the lines at the bank for the old patriots.
      What better way to serve your country AND lay back to enjoy life in your golden years than to stand in line for 6 hours!

      Delete
    2. JC,

      Could you elaborate more?I get so many different stories I am at a point where I believe nothing.

      Some people say they never go anywhere,but they spend their whole day in food lines, and in searching for medicines etc....they are so horrified by everything that they are barely surviving and in such a nervous state they are suffering from emotional and physical problems.

      Others seem fine, are dining in fine restaurants, throwing parties while standing in lines and are angry at the students for causing so much trouble.

      Someone needs to articulate on all of these contradictions a bit more.

      Today I was a bit incensed at a friend who told me he spends his whole day in grocery lines looking for products that are not absolutely necessary (like coffee)and my impression was that he looked for sympathy)...and while he was standing in lines he happened to be posting on facebook at the same time.He has no time for protests , segun el.

      Will the truth please stand up, because at this point I am more confused than clarified.Bout ready to give up understanding what is going on.

      firepigette

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    3. Elaborate on what exactly?
      As i said,here in Mcbo people just don't care.Everytime(except on sundays) i go to the supermarket i hear complain after complain,and it's the same thing in every line wherever you go: bank,market,ATM,SENIAT,whatever. Everyone's complaining about this,about prices,about lack of TP,about many different things.
      But nobody protests, like it's a dumb thing to do.

      Of course,there are many,and i mean many people who are still with the process.Who still think protests are just rich kids paid by the CIA to promote ecocide,homicide and destroy and burn everything.

      Too many people,with too many opinions but one thing in common: We are all getting fucked! Whats painful is what people will do when fucked, watch a soccer game,wait for the next cadena to repeat whatever they say,over-analyze things that are not worth being analized(Peacetalks 2014)....and the few that are obsessed with the future of the country and the world they're gonna have to live in.

      P.S: This is coming from what i see in Maracaibo. If you go to,say the San Francisco municipality(PSUV) you won't even know people are protesting since February.

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    4. Thanks Juan for trying to clarify.

      What confuses me is that some of my friends say that everybody is depressed and going nuts, and then others say people are just going about their lives pretty much as always.

      I find it absolutely repugnant that people could actually go about their lives as usual when students are laying down theirs, and people are jailed.

      I have noticed what you say about many people's reluctance to indulge in anger.Some even think they are above it....on a higher plane so to speak....and that attitude is not only stupid( yes I said stupid) but it is unacceptable in light of the fact that there are those who do make sacrifices.Idiots who would rather stand in line 45 minutes for coffee, than they would take the time to protest.

      firepigette

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    5. Anonymous4:46 PM

      Hi Piggy,
      I lived in Valencia for about four years, I now live in England I have contacted you before by eMail. I would like to speak with you. We have similar mindsets (I think).
      If you remember I ask you if you were a psycholgolista? Any Memory??
      I have at least a six hour time differance with you . you are ahead.
      call me on 772 924 0277.
      Its a Skype number not traceable.

      Delete
    6. Firepigette,

      I am not in Venezuela, but I saw a similar thing happen in Cuba. In my view, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn captured the essense of the problem:

      “And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?... The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If...if...We didn't love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.” - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

      This quote has, IMHO, been misunderstood/dismissed by some because of the last sentence. But I've always chosen to interpret that last sentence not as an attempt to blame the victims, but rather an admission of defeat as an inevitable result of having made the wrong choices at moments when choosing was still possible. I firmly believe that lack of awareness of the gravity of the situation is a bigger factor than fear, apathy, or the self-preservation instict. The realization that there is "nothing left to lose" is an antidote all of these urges, and a pre-requisite to finding a way out of the situation.

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    7. Miguel- o -Matic,

      Good quote.I agree very much with it and would also stick in a qualifier to that last sentence :I don't think anyone deserves this but I do think that people are unwittingly helping to create the situation so are partially to blame.

      The ability to observe with some objectivity is not the most common trait.I have always thought this to be the most important skill to teach in schools.Some people are absolutely brilliant , but when lacking this quality, forfit so much of what is needed to make good decisions.

      The 'nothing left to lose factor' reminds me of the AA 'hitting bottom'....but then I ask" How low is their bottom?

      firepigette

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    8. Anonymous5:59 PM

      I lived in Venezuela for almost ten years, where my Venezuelan husband and I worked in the oil industry. What struck me while there was the general philosophy of "Eso no es posible". Being from the U.S. where our philosophy tends to be "Where there's a will there's a way." I found the Venezuelan way of thinking to be very frustrating. I think this may be the reason so many have not even bothered to protest--because creating change through protest is not seen as being possible.

      Delete
    9. Anonymous,I lived there about 35 years, and thought the same thing.There is very little can -do -will.Most people would much rather adapt to a situation than change it.
      I just had a friend visit me from Margarita( one of my closet friends) ...she kept saying that she had found the perfect solution and that she realized the only intelligent thing to do is to ignore all the bad and just be happy.I told her I am so happy that she is not my mother.

      But seriously getting out of the country changed her attitude....she realized she had adapted herself to something that nobody should adapt to and therefore decided to move to Colombia. I am so glad because she is way too old to be fighting. firepigette

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  4. Anonymous7:17 PM

    I wonder if you ever thought that there could have been a "dialogue" with Maduro.
    there is no way they will leave the power ALIVE. they are killing and they will continue to kill, they will rather die before steping out of power. WHY? simply because they know they will go to jail, if they are not killed first.

    C.

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  5. Dr. Faustus12:18 AM

    "for the deliberate ruination of any economic factor not aligned with the regime, of an apartheid where only regime followers will have access to goods, to ration cards, if needed."

    You have it exactly right. When the 'rationing' starts, and that's gonna happen soon, only the Chavistas will find access to food, medicines, etc. etc. The rest,...well, they can simply leave. That's been the plan all along.

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    1. That's their plan. It worked in Cuba, and they are running the same plays. But, I don't think it will work in Venezuela. The Cuban diaspora involved the relocation of about half a million people over a period of a decade. In order to successfully bleed off enough social and political pressure in Venezuela to allow the Chavistas to stay in power, I think that it would require the relocation of upwards of three million or more Venezuelans. Who can absorb that amount of economic and political refugees?

      Delete
    2. Anonymous5:03 AM

      And relocate how, exactly? With whose money/visa/etc?

      Delete
  6. "The opposition has still a slight chance to make a difference if it can unify for one last willful democratic challenge."

    But the Dictators would steal the elections again, let's not be that naive.

    The only way out now that the MUD lo embarro todo with their retarded "dialogos", is for the economic crisis to get even worse. Hopefully. Yes, Hopefully. That's what will keep the people angry and hopefully re-ignite public protest and more robust action in the streets.

    So when we hear bad economic news, more inf;ation, desempleo, inseguridad, escasez, it's actually a good sign. The problem would be if somehow the imbeciles from the MUD and this incompetent, disguised neo-dictatorship somehow find a way to improve the economy, slighly and artificially as it may be, and calm people down.

    If so, time goes by, and get ready for Cuba #2.

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    1. What's the difference between a Democracy and a Dictatorship?

      Answer:

      In a Democracy you get to vote,in a Dictatorship someone / or group takes over.

      firepigette

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    2. Sledge

      Where does it say that it has to be electoral? There other ways to express democracy.

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    3. Well, I strongly doubt that "democracy will be expressed" in any other way than more bloody protests in the streets, Egyptian style, and thus agree with the title of your post.

      These thugs in power will not step down in any "democratic" way, that's for sure, so I don't know what you mean.

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    4. And to further illustrate my point about the economy needing to get even worse, as the only way out, remember the main reason behind most popular insurgencies, including our our French revolution: (Just susbstitute Pain by Harina Pan, and fast forward a few hundred years..)

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_French_Revolution

      Forget about pretty ideals, and principles of Libertad, honesty, equal opportunity, education, blah, blah, blah, you know, the Capriles crap.. People can even tolerate the highest murder rates and our infamous "inseguridad..

      What REALLY pisses people off and overthrows totalitarian regimes is lack of BREAD, and poverty. Severe, bottom-line economic woes.

      Hopefully things will not get better, artificially now, with the MUD's mud, oil monies, or whatever artificial incentives they come up with. Hopefully it will get worse, until the people just can't take it anymore and Overthrow the regime, old style. That's the only way I see now.

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    5. Unfortunately, the kind of further economic deterioration I'm talking about may have to surpass the current malcontent threshold of poverty, or "escasez", going into the lines of actual Famine, some hunger even in Venezuela's tropical weather con el cambur bajito. That's what several opposition intellectuals and Economy scholars are already expressing in the media.

      Delete
  7. Wow your blog has a lot of comments! I can see you are becoming well noticed world wide! I agree completely with what you are saying about Venezuela, I think ever since Hugo Chavez was in office everything turned bad. My blog is a lot similar to to yours involving Venezuela, and "The Motorcycle Diaries" By Ernesto Guevara. If you could visit it I would really appreciate it! Thanks! http://motorcyclediariesfhs.blogspot.com/

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    1. There is few things more tacky in Internet than trying to ride a blog's long established reputation to promote another blog about stuff that are an insult to the first blog. In case you do not get my point, the writer of this blog considers Che Guevera to be a major criminal. Tawdry flattery will not do you any good.

      Delete
    2. Boludo Tejano4:09 PM

      The aforementionred blog is a bit self-contradictory, I found the following in a posting, NOT in a dissenting comment:
      "How can the OAS neglect the suffering people in Venezuela? I’m left nearly without words. They refuse to help because they 'find it difficult'?! "

      Here the OAS is doing the bidding of Chavismo and of the Castro brothers. Che Guevara was literally a diehard supporter of the Castro brothers- "hasta la muerte," indeed. Certainly Che Guevara, the hero of that blog, would have approved of the OAS here doing the bidding of Chavismo and the Castro brothers.
      I doubt the people operating this blog, which lionizes Che, are aware of the contradiction of condemning an act of the OAS which Che would undoubtedly approved of.

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    3. Anonymous4:17 PM

      "Here Lies Che Guevara, Murderer, Psycopath and Sadist - Murdered by Order of Fidel Castro".

      That about sums it up methinks.

      Delete
    4. Charly9:00 PM

      Raw stuff Daniel, your post. You are in agreement with Diego Arias, no democratic and/or pacific solution to this situation.On another subject, just like Chavez, Che did only one thing right in his life, die. Let hope the rest of the gang go the same way ASAP.

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  8. Anonymous11:02 AM

    Very strong account, even if it does read like it was written by committee

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    1. "written by committee"? Please, explain.

      Delete
  9. Anonymous5:58 PM

    And this crappy Obama government can't impose a single sanction. What a joke.

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    1. Targeted sanctions are coming, and a clean-up of the US Dept of State and other agencies that prevaricated against them, with or without Obama's approval.If you are Chavista, we hope you make every mistake possible about this. If you are not, make no mistake about this. Fifteen years is far too long for a people with so much good potential to kow-tow to petty kleptocrats pretending to be altruistic revolutionaries. When is enough simply bastante mal?

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  10. The sanctions are coming, make no mistake about that. Obama will lose and the Republicans will lose a huge amount of support unless they are passed and stringently implemented. Indifference is a problem cross the globe, many people think 'I'm alive, eating, getting mine. To hell with the rest, it never will happen to me." The Student SOS/Occupy Venezuela movement is the best hope for now. The indifferents will think differently when they are forced to live 15 persons in a home or flat built for four maximum.When rations are equal or less than Cuba or Haiti. The USA is not willing to absorb 3 million indifferents, they can get people as apathetic and unloyal from anywhere-- cheaper if they want such takers and través de personaje. They have no clue how hard people in th eUSA have to work, and how fast they will be drafted to fight against Cubazuela if it comes to that.

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  11. Daniel,

    While I agree with your conclusion, you have neglected to include the social element of the propagation of hundreds of thousands of "ladrones". Chavismo always saw this group of people as part of their constituency and protected them. Through their loose connections to various "colectivos" these organized criminal gangs have flourished and operate with virtual impunity. Fifteen years of neglecting to to seriously combat crime have produced in Venezuela a criminal subclass that numbers perhaps half a million individuals (pure guesswork on my part). They know no other life except for the crime that they were raised into and by. Most of them have become so hardened and bereft of humanity that it is difficult to imagine that any sort of reform is possible.

    Even assuming a new government starting with the best of intentions, we cannot expect that this subclass is going to go get jobs in construction and pay their taxes. Therefore, they are going to need to be defeated and killed or jailed. And I do not see it likely that Venezuela will build all the new jails needed anytime soon, This problem will have to be dealt with through a combination of military action and local vigilantism. More blood...

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