There are a lot of interestingly awful things going in Venezuela right now and I may dare offer a grand unified theory. Applicable for no more than 48 hours until a new universe of crap and lies suddenly opens with new laws of political physics.
Since theories are based on facts that will be proven, or not, let's start with facts.
Today there a couple of items that are noteworthy.
The first one is that the latest hearing of Leopoldo Lopez, supposedly secret, has been recorded and has been released in two installments at CÑN. So let's start with this first item: a secret hearing was leaked and not by the Lopez people who probably had their underwear searched. It was leaked by someone inside the regime. Why?
The second item is that in spite of the international ridicule about to suffer, the regime decided to emit arrest orders against Pedro Burelli and Diego Arria (and others but I am simplifying). OK, let's see.
Pedro Burelli lives outside of Venezuela now, is quietly building up his personal fortune in diverse venture capital and does not need to do anything with Venezuela. In other words, there is no real reason to expect him to be involved in a coup/assassination that could jeopardize his settled life in the US of A. I am not saying he is not involved, I am saying that there are plenty more people that could credibly carry a coup, inside Venezuela that should be investigated before Burelli. Say, a few military inside the regime, like those releasing the Lopez audio? The charges are based on fraudulent e-mails that Burelli simply demanded Jorge Rodriguez to reproduce in full to prove that they were not forgeries (you know, headers, IP, etc...). Jorge Rodriguez is not producing them on the lamest of excuses and thus the Venezuelan attorney general went bonkers, announcing that the investigation was serious and now deciding for the arrest of Burelli.
What is the real problem here? A member of the most radical wing of chavismo, in full fight for control of the succession, has made an ass of himself and will probably be prosecuted for defamation in the US as he had the Venezuelan embassy issue the written material in the US. For all of its internal infighting chavismo cannot afford to have a single one of its pieces fall least the whole thing unravels. And so, as Burelli is seeking with Google the evidence to confound once and for all Rodriguez, the regime needs to attack like crazy first. Typical thug response, shoot first, ask questions later.
As for Arria, it is simply ridiculous to assume he would be in any position to perpetrate an assassination attempt, even if he wanted to. But he has been a constant international pain in the neck for the regime and the time has come to get rid of him.
Let me add, after all, a third item today: the regime decided through yet another bogus high court sentence that contradicts previous ones, and recent at that, that the CNE directors with long expired terms are maintained in place for as long as it takes. There is a clear reason for that, the regime does not have the legal votes to replace Tibisay Lucena by an equally subservient, electoral treachery practitioner, so they just unconstitutionally decided to retain her for life. But there is another reason, I am sure: the regime has plans for a vote anytime soon and they need the controlled election board, CNE, they own now to remain in place.
So, what is my grand unified theory?
The battle rages inside chavismo. But they need to maintain a semblance of unity. If one piece falls, it may just bring all down together. One way to preserve that unity is to bring regularly to the public altar of sacrifice some opposition figure on any charge. The details are irrelevant, what matters is that the blood thirsty chavista lumpen is satisfied and that all factions share the blame for the innocent victim, and thus find further reasons to stick together.
But that does not stop the internal fights, it just postpones the final outcome. That is where the further jailing of Lopez makes sense, and the leaking of the hearings that is making quite a lot of damage to the regime as it exposes the kangaroo courts we have now.
I propose that Lopez is Diosdado Cabello prisoner, one of his trump cards to use against the regime as well as against the opposition. Hence why someone leaked the audio.
It is a trump card against the regime because if Cabello were to feel threatened he could have Lopez released to create trouble for those inside chavismo attacking him. The Cuban gang for example.
It is a trump card against the opposition because if the opposition players do not rally behind him he could release Lopez that could instantly become the main opposition leader. Thus people like AD and PJ who secretly prefer Lopez in jail than outside campaigning are blackmailed into some sort of compromise with Cabello if needed.
Of course, poor Lopez: his life is in the end irrelevant to Cabello who has long ago passed the point of caring for any human being. His only chance of survival may well be unfortunately to accept to play the game with Cabello... Hence that someone released the audio, to weaken Cabello trump cards.
Which brings the CNE. The regime, cornered by an economic crisis, cornered by an intractable internal war that no one seems to be able to win, may wish for an electoral option to settle something. A referendum on the economy, an amnesty, something? A dismissal of Capriles from Miranda and the need of adequate electoral fraud to make sure the opposition does not get Miranda state? Maybe a bigger event like a sudden resignation of Maduro? Or as simple as preparing an atrocious further gerrymandering for parliamentary elections next year since it is clear that the regime is not going to get the 48% it got three years ago. Only through more gerrymandering can the regime hope to retain a weak majority (assuming we reach that deadline as a pretend democracy still).
So there, my unified theory with an expiration date of days. I may be totally and absolutely wrong, but if anyone has a better idea, please write your own version in the comment section.