Monday, October 26, 2015

The cornerstone issue (election 2015 YV-1)

I have been away for yet another long period but I am back for a series of short posts on the December election. Thus the first one should be about the cornerstone issue (plus some minor that are directly implied with the main issue).

As informed readers are aware, the Venezuelan situation is going from bad to worse. As such, any potential "normalcy" that could be associated with the scheduled December election is done away with speedily. Fortunately this has a positive effect: the crudeness of the moment peels away layers of cracked political paint painfully plastered by the regime. Now we have one overwhelming issue for the election: who's gonna deal with the disaster as of December 7.


Put this way the result of the election becomes meaningless: no matter the winner there will be a mix of devastating adjustment measures with a high likeness of bloody repression. This will happen, victims may vary.

The paradox comes from the motivations of the political sides. The opposition is trying to reach power to solve a crisis that it is not its fault, that will not provide them with any credit. In fact the opposition should wish to lose the election and let the regime sink alone. The regime on the other hand wants to retain absolute power when in fact it should wish for the opposition to take charge, or at least contemplate sharing power with the opposition so as to share responsibility. That sharing would work in front of an dumb Venezuelan public opinion.

Political wisdom should dictate that the regime and the opposition break a deal BEFORE the election for a power sharing transition no matter what the election results are. But this will not happen for a very simple reason: the regime is so corrupt, so compromised that it knows the only way it can avoid jail is to retain power at all cost. So the regime forges ahead in its electoral treachery while the opposition more aware of the disaster ahead of us has to try to win anyway so that we do not starve, even if it means assuming an undeserved guilt trip.

You need to understand this clearly if you are trying to figure out what is going on currently and what are the strategies to be deployed in coming weeks which could include suspending elections outright, to everyone's secret relief.

To this we can add other major parameters. One is the role of the army in the near future. Chavismo and opposition could well agree to let the blame for everything on the army and agree together in dismantling its current structure. Easier said than done, of course; but merely trying to do is scary enough for the current army extremely corrupt leadership (from cashing in to drug traffic large scale). The army will make sure that nothing happens from December 7 on that it does not approve. The question is who will the army support and that will depend in part on how the campaign unfolds.

Another parameter is that is is clear that there is a rift inside chavismo. On one side are those that are ready and willing to suspend elections or put to jail opposition leadership or something. On the other side are those that think some form of semi believable election should be held even if there is a real risk that the opposition may prevail. Both sides agree only on one thing: whatever opposition victory takes place, this one should be minimized through any mean, even if it risks trouble with international actors.

This being said and well understood in coming posts we'll go into more details.

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PS: do to personal situation I do not see in the near future me coming back to the regular to hectic blogging of the past. If ever: my job is basically done, the world knows. However I am slowly getting into Instagram and I am more active on Twitter since there is free time available for this in all the waiting rooms of doctors and public administration long lines.  Links to the accounts on the right. I am even trying to get a little bit better at being interactive with those willing to write, something hard for an Introverted INTP.

3 comments:

  1. you are a hero to me.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous1:10 PM

    Daniel:

    What you don't mention is how certain opposition leaders are behaving as if there is a deal already struck.

    Henry Ramos Allup is one that would probably prefer the status quo as opposed to a change. IF there is any change it would be that HE gets to be Assembly President in place of Diosdado so that he, Ramos Allup, can quash any investigation into both his wife's shenanigans and those of his "Derwick Bolichico" nephew.

    Julio Borges and his pal Armando Briquet are another pair of "oppo" figures that would likely prefer the status quo as they too have shady deals with government figures.

    Then there is Capriles: More and more it seems to me that he's preaching alone. They must have some really damaging info about him, because ever since he lost the presidential he has been as meek as a lamb.

    The few that speak out forcefully are neutered. The accommodating ones are the ones that permit these goons to continue.

    Anon 242

    ReplyDelete
  3. With the regime already publishing that they are leading in the polls there is no more question as to the gov'ts strategy. They clearly are planning to steal the election as they have before. I don't believe the people or opposition will do much about it. So the regime as is will go on and continue to steal all they an and destroy the country. Their hope being to carry on forever and who cares how badly the people or could try is doing. This will never end as long as the military gets to over express itself and survive on drug money with promises of Christmas when oil prices come back up.

    ReplyDelete

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