Monday, November 30, 2015

The day after (election YV-6)

So, coverage of the election by this blog has been light this time around. But that is no excuse to make it complete. One thing is to vote and another what happens Monday 7. Let's see.

There could be still a suspension/coup

The violence in the campaign trail with the numerous attacks on opposition politicians and the murder of at least one activist has to give us pause. The signs are clear, the regime is not going away peacefully. Still, at this late date I am not betting all of my money that elections will be actually held on Sunday. Also, I am not betting all of my money that elections will be held and results accepted. Whatever the regime chooses to do on these aspects, it will be sorry for it.

The opposition victory

This is now a given, though some disaster can still strike. At this point there is no pollster that states that the regime may win the election, even with a one seat majority. The only question here is how large the opposition win will be. On this respect I have kept updating my Excel sheet and came up on a tighter result than the first "prediction" one. I have accepted that the MUD to PSUV spread will  be 10% (I resist giving it more no matter what pollsters say). I tweeted the result and the observation is that with a 10% advantage the "safe" and "leaning" MUD seats barely reach half! It will all depend on how the toss up seats go. This is a measure on how biased the electoral system is in favor or chavismo that a 10% advance barely gives the opposition a half dozen seats majority!

Recognizing victory

Let's say for the sake of the argument that the regime indeed accepts that the opposition alliance MUD wins. Will the regime accept full victory? Or will the regime subjects us to hours of delays while backroom negotiations take place so that the opposition recognizes a lower seat count in exchange of having a majority recognized? e.g. give up on a 3/5 majority in exchange of a regime recognition of a simple majority.

The week after

Depending on the shock wave of Sunday 6, it is quite possible that the regime uses what days are left from its 2010 majority to pass further laws to restrict the role of the elected National Assembly. That one may be able to shake that away but there will be a waste of time before the elected assembly can start its real job.


And of course there are all sorts of things that can go bump in the dark. For example there could be violence from the out of control "colectivos". There could be riots, hunger riots as surprisingly stores do not get food as soon as the opposition majority is proclaimed, etc, etc.

As for what happens once the opposition victory is acknowledged? Matter for another post.


  1. Anonymous7:25 PM

    I've heard rumors that all the polling places in Zulia have been relocated.

    Isn't it just likely that the regime will just dummy up whatever counts it wants while continuing to disenfranchise voters? They kicked out all electoral observers. Who is to say they will cling on to any pretense of honesty? Its in their interest to doctor the entire election and just call it a day.

    Sure, nobody will buy it, but the veneer of legitimacy has to be just razor thin enough to reassure those in power they still have gainful employment. Optics on the outside be damned.

  2. Charly8:42 PM

    In another setting, someone up North coined the expression "irrational exuberance" or to meaning in the local lingo, Maduro pa rato. Looks like the MUD is smoking the same grass generally reserved for Maduro himself.

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  4. Excellent observations, all of them. Perhaps only 2 items were left out, Chavez's Smartmatic, which for some obscure reason everyone trusts, but especially the BRIBE factor.

    After some high level of Fraud is perpetrated, after the blatant Gerrymandering already in place, bottom line is the laughable "parliament" will be split, say 90/77. "Mud victory" huh? Big changes? Don't think so. Because that's when the "sientate ahi, pana, vamos a conversar.." situations kick in. That's when the PDVSA money is redirected to silence, pollute, and Bribe the MUD new diputados. Most of them have a price. They will be bought.

  5. I find it hard to believe regardless how every one will know, that Maduro concedes anything. He went through to much effort to let the opposition win. He will just cheat the count like all dictatorships disguised under a democracy do. Then what world goes aw and does nothing g but sends letters and the people protest and meet extreme suppression and give up. Venezuela's history is made up of dictators rising to power and until the students all out revolt and make their families stand by then and hence military too the nothing changes. This would have happened a year ago when Lopez jumped in and made the students movement about politics.

  6. Anonymous8:28 AM

    It's interesting that where I'm located all the last minute election posters say NOTHING about Maduro. It's all about winning this one for Chávez.

    There's also "graffiti" (not the outpouring of people's emotions but merely a spray paint campaign paid for by the government) which shows the Eternal Supremo holding a paint can and brush (and wearing the presidential band - shouldn't Maduro have that?) and the text reads "I'm with you". I have an idea for a better image. The Eternal Supremo in hell with the same text, since that's what they turned this place into so we're already in hell. Or maybe have him in a big line to buy food, standing there with all the hoi polo, wearing his presidential band.

    1. Well, so what's your interpretation? "El pueblo" Adores Chavez. A dead Pajarito. A despicable, disguised dictator. Full of crap, by any civilized standards. The "pueblo" blames it all on "maduro" and "cabello" because they are not Chavez..

      No one has the guts to call it what it is: Massive ignorance and/or Massive Corruption. Or do you have another explanation?

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