Tuesday, December 08, 2015

Musings on the 0,6666666666.... An Irrational or Transcendental number?

As I type, the opposition claims it got 2/3 of the Assembly and the CNE still tries to find ways to deny that number. But in a way it does not matter much, the psychological effect is there, and what matters more is that the vote against the current regime is 2 million+ votes. That is right, the MUD got more than 2 million votes that the PSUV alliance (GPP). The other candidates, I think , did not go much more than 1%, making this election the most polarized in our history (Chavez presidential victories aside but they were of a different nature, outright plebiscites on a charismatic leader).

By any measure the electoral result is surprising and transcendental. The Maduro's regime has been irremediably trashed, but not ousted. And that is were the key importance of the 2 million vote resides. That the regime conceded, that it was forced to by the army to do so is not democracy. With 2 million votes ahead the armed forces were not going to support a fraud because they would have had the task to kill what was needed to kill to save the regime. In the XXI century such crimes do not prescribe and General Padrino merely voiced the concerns of the bulk of the Army: "this disaster is of the politician's own making and there is no reason why we should take the hit for that". That the army benefited immensely from the regime is, in its eyes, circumstantial: the laws and lack of supervision that allowed such corruption were of the making of the politicians.

To be or not to be sanguine about a 2/3 Assembly majority? Well, for starters, the gerrymandering operated in reverse once a threshold had been reached. Also, that 2 million surprise did not follow what had been taking place slowly. The opposition share of the vote has been growing slowly from disgruntled chavistas that abstain an election or two until their conscience finally brings them to the other side. This time around too many chavistas jumped across the line outright. Too many I write because such shifts can be go back as fast as they came in. Thus the first consideration on sanguinity: that 2/3 is an ephemeral, irrational result that we should not build much on it. Speaking of constitution change right now, in the face of an economic blow out is, well, maybe unwise.

The second factor on sanguinity is the reaction of the regime. All that has been written before, at least on this blog, is still valid. They are a bunch of thugs focused on personal power and wealth. That they retreated Sunday is due to the only language thugs understand: force. 2 million + vote and the refusal of the army to go along with a fraud that could not be covered up in thick make up is a language they understand. The democratic language that people got tired of them and demand at the very least an aggiornamento of their objectives is a message that so far does not seem to have reached the guilt cortex area of Maduro, Cabello, Rodriguez and most heavy weights of the regime.

I allow myself to think that a 2/3 majority will scare the beejeezuzz of these thugs in charge and push them away of any possible transition. For the opposition to defend and assume the 0,666666... means that it has to be ready to face conflict much sooner than expected. Not that a 3/5 majority would be pleasing to the regime, but it would make negotiations easier to come along.

Let's not forget one thing: there is an economy blow up coming. What we have seen in 2015 is nothing. If we do not want to starve in 2016 or die of fever because we do not even aspirin we are going to have to go hat in hand for money. The only one left that can bail us out is the IMF and there is a need to convince the executive power in the hands of chavismo to accept that reality. Imposing it just because we have a 2/3 majority is not going to do.

To close this, a personal anecdote. The cleaning lady at home came back today from having gone to vote in her village. She has been always anti Chavez even though her village has voted 80% for Chavez (it went down to 62% Sunday...). She was happy. She hopes that the new National Assembly is going to arrange things quickly because she is sick and tired of the long lines. Talking to her I realized, to my great horror, that she has no clue as to what a National Assembly job is. For her, the N.A. is kind of a guardian put in place to replace Maduro at the helm, or something like that. I did not dare go in depth. Yet I explained in simple terms and images what a N.A. is for. It was like a revelation to her. She admitted that she had not been able to find anyone to clear that confusion for her. And she was disappointed to learn that the darn N.A. will not be able to fix up things fast. As in next week.

2/3 you said?




12 comments:

  1. Anonymous5:15 PM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NN1eSMXI_6Y

    ReplyDelete
  2. "She admitted that she had not been able to find anyone to clear that confusion for her. And she was disappointed to learn that the darn N.A. will not be able to fix up things fast. As in next week."

    That is my major worry about the election. The Chavistas control the media. The new assembly needs to do what ever they can to change that. They also need to quickly propose fixes for the problems that the Chavistas will oppose. Then blaim the Chavistas for opposing them.

    MUD can't fix the economy very quickly. The solution to the long lines would be to allow the currency to float, end government subsidies and get the government out of the retail business.

    The problem with doing that is that it would make it hard for the poor to eat. The poor won't therefore understand the necessity of doing this and at the same time, oil prices are dropping so that Venezuela has very little money.

    The people simply are not going to want to understand and believe that Chavismo has destroyed the Venezuela economy, the Venezuela manufacturers, the Venezuela currency and left the country in economic ruin. There is no way to recover from that without going through a lot of pain.

    This is the problem that socialists cause. They destroy the economy. But at first, there is a lot of wealth in the country for the socialists to redistribute. When that money runs out, the problems start being visible to the poor. The eventually abandon the socialists for someone else. Sometimes the replacement is competent and starts to fix the problems but it takes time. The people get tired of waiting for the problems to be fixed and the socialists get voted back into office. They continue the destruction.




    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. por lo menos separas en parrafos, seldom do!

      Delete
  3. Finally, an update on the cne site.

    http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_asamblea2015/r/0/reg_000000.html

    Mud 109, psuv 55, indigena 3 !!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous6:49 PM

    For heaven's sakes stop analysing to the umpteen's digit.
    WE WON, THEY LOST!
    Now: manos a la obra. And I hope you don't fuck it up!
    Mike

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous6:08 AM

      Actually Mike, that umpteenth digit mattered significantly.

      That 112th seat means the new assembly will be able to do much more than they could with 111 seats.

      Want more small numbers that mean a lot?

      82. 82 votes out of 140,000 in the 3rd circuit of Aragua were the difference that gave us that 112th seat.

      82.

      Never let it be said that your vote doesn't count.

      Roberto N

      Delete
  5. If the MUD had full control there would be some quick fixes that would certainly show benefit to the people. Would start by immediately confiscating the billions stolen, starting with the 30 to 40 billion in Chavez's daughters name or the free oil to Cuba and use this money to help feed the poor. Not with lower food prices at the store level but with food stamps type programs. Fixing the currency is obvious let it truly reflect its situation. Then ask the indebted to rationalize the debt into a workable situation and look to world to work with a stable intelligent gov't. Yes all would take time but I am guessing long food lines would disappear very quickly. Get the gov't out of business and fix the ridiculous labor laws and watch a very hot job market explode for those willing to work for an honest days pay.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous7:40 PM

      Yes, yes, yes get the stolen billions, particularly from the Chavez' daughters. There has to be a means to get to that money and then put them in Leopoldo's cell and forget that they exist, these dumbass arrogant women / teenagers.
      Mike

      Yes in case you wonder

      Delete
  6. They need to do lots of little "quick fixes" to show that things are moving along as they focus on big things. This shows the people they are capable and not bogged down on one huge issue....It is key to show people things are different from the last few years....And change becomes tangible as quickly as possible.. Get the garbage picked up, fix roads, capital investment projects and public works are visible things. Even if you need to take a loan to pay workers and get things started. It is visible.

    ReplyDelete
  7. They need to do lots of little "quick fixes" to show that things are moving along as they focus on big things. This shows the people they are capable and not bogged down on one huge issue....It is key to show people things are different from the last few years....And change becomes tangible as quickly as possible.. Get the garbage picked up, fix roads, capital investment projects and public works are visible things. Even if you need to take a loan to pay workers and get things started. It is visible.

    ReplyDelete
  8. People need to be realistic about what needs to be done. There is no bounty of stolen wealth that will easily be recovered from the chavistas thieves. Even if it could be found, it wouldn't be enough to spread largesse among the population.

    No, The first thing the new Assembly needs to do is remove price and currency controls which have been strangling the economy. "Precios justos" are a little value when all the shelves are empty.

    Some news articles also suggest they are going to cut gas subsidies. That is long overdo, and if they can get Maduro to go along with it, it would make a lot of sense. However, if the Assembly does it on its own, I suspect the chavistas will try to whip the population (which considers "free" gasoline an entitlement) into a hysteria against the opposition.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous9:18 PM

    Two things. First, the judicial branch will necessitate a serious restructuring, meaning removing Chavista judges and probably the entire supreme court; otherwise, any legislative effort could be frustrated. And second, with the oil barrel at that price (expected to last for a year or so), allowing the currency to fluctuate freely to push the economy may trigger a huge inflation (the real value of things, some say); sadly, any measures now to fix the economy risk making things difficult for Venezuelans and the Chavistas will certainly use this to their advantage.

    ReplyDelete

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