Since it is in Spanish a short summary follows, plus what I wrote on that already in 2012:
The argument of Blasco is that the closing of the Colombian Venezuelan border since last year was in fact an excuse to justify removing some of the military contingent there and allow thus for less surveillance. The objective would have been to ease the transfer from Colombia to Venezuela of some of the FARC weaponry, drug manufacturing and guerilla personnel that cannot remain safely inside Colombia once a peace treaty is signed (forget about a referendum on it and an eventual enforcing, these are another matter).
That may be true, Blasco makes a good case. I would add to his case that the delay ad patres in governor election due this December is a powerful argument in his favor, something he did not mention. Effectively, as chavismo is almost certain to lose most state houses, it is crucial for them to finish any resettlement of the FARC while finding ways to preserve at the very least the states where the FARC will find refuge. This is a tall order unless the regime decides to annul the elections or do a massive and obvious cheating, always a possibility with these desperate crazies. Then there is also the possibility of a negotiated election where the opposition gets all state houses except for those of Zulia, Guarico, Apure and Amazonas. It is not outlandish [sigh...]
In 2012 I did draw this map below where that whole chavo-narko-FARC strategy was put together (retaken in 2013).
|How chavismo plans to offer refuge to FARC.|
In light mauve the zones in Colombia where FARC and ELN concentrate before crossing over to Venezuela.
There you have it.
The saddest part of it all is that the FARC as well as the regime are absolutely oblivious of the consequences for the population' suffering that such a resettlement would entail. There goes to tell you how soulless a narko system becomes. Let's not forget that Castro has always sponsored drug trafficking to democracies as a way to weaken them. In Venezuela he seems that he has succeeded and in Colombia he is getting a new start courtesy of Santos (who in addition of his weaknesses will likely face soon million of hunger refugees from Venezuela). As far as chavismo, Castro and the FARC are concerned, poverty and violence are a good tool to control the populace.
Hat tip for the Blasco article to my friend Fausta, always on top of such stuff.