SOME BACKGROUND

Sunday 8, December 2002
[I did write this as a summary of the events that preceded, and lead to, what I have been writing of. Notes in brackets are later additions for the sake of a better understanding]

After the events of April, which I reported at the time, Chavez did not make any serious attempt to find some common ground [Chavez resigned briefly but Carmona tried to make a grab for power which resulted in Chavez return to power. Details are still quite murky and it seems that Chavez did resign indeed but disputes between the generals, the real power behind either Chavez or Carmona, resulted in their decision to ring back Chavez]. As a result the situation got worse and the opposition managed to get 15% of the electoral body to sign to call for a non-binding referendum on Chavez government. Since the most optimist polls give him 30% (down from an Olympian 80 % 2 years ago), there is no way that the government can accept this referendum. Chavez is not forced to resign but of course it would become clear that he lost legitimacy and he would have to give up at some point. When the opposition in a huge march brought the petition and the signatures to back it up (they needed a truck to carry the bound books of signatures) the Chavez people tried to block access to the electoral commission, with the result of several dozen people injured, many by bullet! Yet the march managed to pass and give the petition to the national electoral commission, a “fifth” new independent power under the new constitution of 1999.

This was November 4. Since then the government has used all sorts of dilatory tactics, to the point of using the National assembly to disbar a judge of the Supreme Court in an illegal manner just because he emitted a decision that they did not like. The rest of the court, afraid of Chavez, is “debating” what is clearly a conflict of power that is not up to debate. Obviously Chavez controls all powers and there is just one thing left to the opposition: a general work stoppage, or strike. I prefer the first term as it is a movement called by the business people AND the trade unions. So strike does not really describe it [since then the high court has rejected the Assembly move and the electoral commission has shown some backbone to resist official pressure].

Another detail of importance. Since November we have a “negotiation” table that the government insists in calling a “dialogue” table. This one is presided by OAS secretary Cesar Gaviria. The poor guy is doing his best but the delay tactics are working there even more flagrantly than in other fronts.

Thus the 4th work stoppage of the year started Monday December 2 and keeps going on as we speak. Of course commerce on a pre Christmas season has trouble following. In particular after a very bad year which saw the Bolivar go from 700 to the American dollar to 1485 a few weeks ago (1325 lately as people just run out of money to buy dollars….). But industry and major business did stop up to a 90% in some areas and/or sectors. On Tuesday it seemed that the stoppage was floundering since the streets in some areas seemed to have enough animation to be used as video for governmental propaganda. But, in what seems to have been a dumb provocation, the National Guard repressed brutally a small pacific demonstration. As a result the stoppage was prolonged and the first effect in the oil industry started to appear. By Thursday the merchant navy had joined the strike and today between 50 and 89% of the oil industry activities are shut down. It is important to note that quite responsibly the workers have kept essential units open when shutting them could carry huge costs when reopened. The consequence is that Bush is suddenly very worried. He should have known better and not support Chavez for oil while wondering about Iraq. The US risks not be a privileged partner of a post Chavez government, if he were to fall eventually.

And it got worse Friday with the shooting at Plaza Francia of Altamira. This landmark square of Caracas in the last year has become the rallying point of anti Chavez opposition, and more so since a month ago over 100 military officers have publicly defected and set up shop there, living in a hotel nearby or some areas of the underground garage. The shooting was awful. It happened just as the country was listening to the stoppage committee announcing the prolongation of the strike until Monday. All the private networks cut the declarations to show live a few seconds after the shootings (all TV networks, except the state one have a permanent correspondent there since many of the opposition announcements come from Altamira). So we could see, live, people that got shot bleed direct in front of us, and even in an emergency shelter a young woman die: she was monitored and they realized her heart had stopped. We could see when they removed her shirt and pressed her chest to try to revive her, breasts and blood for all to see. Another man shot in the head and dead right there was in a pool of blood, with someone having covered his face with a Venezuelan flag.

I let you imagine the collective trauma.

In a show of outmost cynicism, Chavez eventually spoke at 11 PM, to the government network journalists (the only ones he declares to these days). He spoke of his day activities dealing with the stoppage, including calling a cook of one of the stopped tanker that disagreed with the rest of the crew…. After 10 minutes he finally declared on Altamira as just one of the events of the day, suggesting even that it could have been a self-perpetrated attack by the opposition. Even though by then the killer had been caught and shown to be linked with Chavistas extremist groups. If I tell you this particular thing it is because it is very representative of what is going on in the country. We have two sides that are pretty much unable to speak to each other. And that the government is now throwing all of his dice to see what happens. [This very Sunday 8, in his daily TV show “Alo Presidente” Chavez has pushed his cynicism to declare that after all the Altamira shooter might not be the shooter since some people just confess to the most incredible things. This senseless defense have left people wondering about the motives].

The trauma of Friday has of course the effect of energizing the opposition. The negotiation table discussions inexorably change since now nobody from the opposition can trust a negotiated agreement with Chavez. I really do not know what will happen in the next few hours. Saturday Chavistas did a huge support march (many paid or forced to go as they are public employees). That march was festive as it commemorated the election of Chavez 4 years ago. Meanwhile in an equally impressive act, the undaunted opposition, dressed in black and in silence, marched at the other end of the city. With trumpet calls to the dead, altars with candles, flowers, etc… Of course the contrast demonstrates the little regard of Chavez for “the enemy” and “traitors of the father land” as we are now called. There is something of a fundamentalist nature in the remaining Chavez followers. It has become a religion of sorts as we can see in the followers of totalitarian regimes through history. Which is of course extremely scary.

Voila. Right now I am trapped in San Felipe as gas is scarce and I have to monitor my business, stoppage or not. The strain is terrible for the country. As the oil industry shuts down, it brings down with it the stopping of other basic process that must work 365 days a year. So restarting the economy will be a hard task already. We do not know whether Chavez will impose martial law and in fact make his own coup Fujimori style. Or if he will be forced to resign. These seem the only two options. And both have large probabilities of blood shed.

Some links

The New York Times (which in the past days seems to have missed the mark on what is really going on in Venezuela, not too surprising since I always felt that there South American coverage was not as good as their European coverage for example)

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/07/international/americas/07VENE.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/08/international/americas/08VENE.html

The first one is good for the pics which show a man crying in the flag, quite a frequent occurrence these days, and people hiding during the shootings of Friday night and the supporters of the striking navy waving flags over the water. Plus map and oil info. The second link is just an update of the first one minus pics.

The Washington Post has been better informed. This most recent link is pretty good and I would agree with most of it.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A24479-2002Dec7.html

For those who dig some Spanish. El Nacional, one of the two main papers here has a photo gallery. Unfortunately it is a little bit cumbersome and I would advise you to look at it if you have fast connection. Or if you have nothing else to do at the time. It will show you quite well the atmosphere from either side during this strike.

http://www.el-nacional.com/Galeria/preview.asp?Id=18277&IdSeccion=64&NumPag=1&Codigo_Galeria=84

Another much more accessible photo gallery with a commentary, in Spanish, can be found in the other Venezuelan Newspaper, the oldest one in the country by the way, El Universal (I read both of them so I have no particular preference). This gallery is specific to the events of Plaza Altamira Friday night.

http://www.eluniversal.com/especiales/terror/terror.shtml

The next gallery is more specific as to the general strike, in particular when the merchant navy joined Thursday, stopping soon the flow of oil to the US.

http://www.eluniversal.com/especiales/paro61202/paro61202.shtml

and this last one is of the brutal repression of a small rally on Tuesday PM who as a result strengthened the resolve of the strikers.

http://www.eluniversal.com/especiales/enfrentamiento3d/index_e2d.shtml