A recap on the Venezuela Situation
Part 1: the numbers

The best is just to take the El Universal English summary, sort it out some and supplement it.

Jorge Rodriguez, a director of the National Electoral Council (CNE), said that over a million of people will be able to claim? or rectify? those signatures backing the presidential recall vote that were objected by the top electoral body.

Rodriguez explained that petitioners will be able to rectify signatures under observation and those rejected under article 3 of rules governing recall referenda.

According to guidelines on claims, approved by three out of five directors, 2.700 centers will be installed all over the country.

It is a good time to get into what the numbers mean. I will round up slightly for ease of understanding. The numbers announced by Carrasquero are:

3.086.013 signatures have been processed. First question, where are the missing ones? The oppostion has submitted 3.4 million. How does the CNE account for the 300 000 missing?

1.832.493 are considered valid.

876.017 signatures are "under observation".

In the coming days the ID numbers will be published, so that the whole world will now in a lawless country who directly opposes the great leader. His administration will now have a list of 1.8 million of avowed enemies and 0.9 potential enemies to whom deny all sorts of services.

143.930 signatures only seem to have been rejected for valid reason.

233.573 signatures have been invalidated for what can only be qualified capricious reasons.

Conclusion: 876 017 people and a portion of the 233 573 (and perhaps of the 143 930?) will be able to go for "repair" or "re-affirmation".

This was elaborated to a somewhat greater extent by Rodriguez alone too. No word from Zamora and Mejias to date.

He stated that only the 878 and 233 would be "elegible to effectuate a repair". A simple calculation is now possible.

The opposition needs 2 437 080, 2.4 million. It has 1.83 and a "reserve" of perhaps 1 million to get the 0.6 it is missing. Is this doable?

2 700 centers will be opened, supposedly in the same sites of the original location (the only real concession so far since last week the CNE wanted less than half).

The people that signed with the itinerant forms will have now to go personally to "confirm". If they could not go the first time, how do we know they will go now? I mean, why allow itinerant forms then to now cancel all of them?!?!?!?!?!?

The process will from now on controlled only by the CNE who will put one of its employees and one computer and a register. So why have delegated all the work to the petitioners, now to do the job themselves for almost half of the people that came first!?!?!?!?!?!? If people cannot be trusted then why not collect signtures themselves from the start? If people cannot be trusted, why have elections?

There will be witness and army provided security. Considering that the witness, Venezuelans or Carter/OAS, of the collection process have been disqualified how do we know that the witness this time will have any credence? And from the role of the armed forces lately what kind of "security" can we expect?

Only two days will be allotted. Two days? Already 4 days were a huge challenge for devoted organizers. This time with the CNE bureaucrats establishing at will the pace and discouraging people through long lines and what not, how can the operation last only two days?

Really, who are they kidding? This cannot work and the opposition would have to negotiate better conditions to accept such a decision from the CNE!!! To even have a slight chance at making this harebrained scheme work!

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More later, I am off to see what is going on in the streets and at work, if I can make it there. I will give a summary of reactions this afternoon.