May Day meditation
Sunday 2, May 2004

Since yesterday was May Day, workers day, it would be interesting to examine the financial situation of the Venezuelan worker. A simple table would do. The numbers are collected from different sources and I have tried to put up them in a simplified way, and as an average of what can be found. It is not useless to remind the reader that for the last two years there are no real reliable statistics. In addition some indicators such as the inflation cannot be calculated accurately. Inflation is based on a measure of controlled prices and of course the Central Bank cannot measure "officially" what are the real street prices.

Economical factor, indicator, parameter	Approximate value
Governmental expected expense increase in 2004 compared to 2003	55%
Expected inflation for 2004	23,6%
Probable real inflation outside of price controls	35-40%
Minimal monthly worker wage in April 2004, at the official US dollar exchange rate	129 $
Minimal worker wage as of August 2004, after a two step mandatory increase	168 $
Percentile increase of the minimum wage	30%
Minimal agricultural worker wage as of August 2004	151 $
Official food basket value for a family of 4, that is, only the food items needed for one month	247 $
Percentile increase of the food basket from one month ago	1.5%
Growth rate hoped for by the government in 2004	9.7%
Probable growth rate	6%
Percentage of the 2004 worker income as to the 1998 worker income even if the 9.7% growth rate is achieved	79.5%
Percentage of income growth that the worker will still have to make up after 2004 to reach the 1998 level	20.5%
Official currency exchange to the US dollar	1920
Street value of the dollar	3000 to 3500
Expected official rate before the end of 2004	2400
Employed workers in 2004	3.5 Million
Unemployed workers in 2004	2.4 M (23%)
Employed in the informal economy	3.5 to 5 M
Jobs lost in the last 5 years under Chavez administration	1 to 1.5 M

Obviously the economy has not been well managed to say the least. What is surprising is that still 35% of the people support Chavez. In Peru where things have not been as bad and where even some growth has been maintained Toledo is in the 10% range...

Or is it that the 35% percent are getting something that the 65% are not getting? Probably faith.

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PS: (added in proof) Can someone explain to me why the agricultural wage is still below the urban wage? At least in Yaracuy this does not make any sense. And if Caracas cost of living were really considered then the minimal wage there should be twice as much as in Yaracuy. It is amazing to observe that after 5 years of a "revolutionary" government that has devoted such energy to land redistribution, to peasant rhethoric, is still carrying this outdated scheme!!!! Perhaps those in the government that suddenly are acquiring haciendas consider that it is their turn to exploit rural workers? Naah! They are good revolutionaries, aren't they?