Peering again at the Crystal ball on Venezuela
Recent announcement create yet a new scenario
A Globovision version of the Vice President declarations is not as clear as the Union Radio version, but evidence is gathering that the government might be getting ready to accept the results.
Let's us consider a third scenario from the two written earlier.
Chavez indeed decides to accept the signature results and goes to an August 8 Recall Election. The only reason he would do so is because he knows that the High Court would allow him to run again and he hopes that the opposition will overspend itself in the campaign. Losing the Recall Election would scare his supporters into believing that the return of the opposition would be dangerous for them. The Vice President would be in charge during the Electoral Campaign for a two year term president. Chavez would have a total of three months of constant campaigning (until September 8), what he does and likes best and by September 8 he could beat and even trash a divided opposition. The last month would be a ferocious character assassination of whomever is standing in front of Chavez (remember, you read it here first).
An additional advantage for Chavez is that he would run at the same time as the local election set for September. His presence on the ticket would allow him to save a few governorship that now look lost. And even if defeated he would have enough of his people placed to help him back in 2006.
It looks for me to be quite a gamble for Chavez. If he has the nerve to do so it is because he thinks that the favorable CNE (now "credible" again since it accepted the signatures) will be a big help in defeating the opposition. The new system is less than safe, a close election can be arranged to go Chavez way. After all we have a CNE that has managed to annul almost 1 million of the 3.4 collected and a High Court that will bow to Chavez, in particular considering that by September 8 the new Justices solely elected by the chavismo majority in the National Assembly will be in office, according to the new law.
High stakes. Chavez can lose a lot, but he could win it all. Even cheating Chavez could present a credible "democratic face" and set up once and for all his system.
Which of the three scenarios will it be? All are very difficult for the opposition.
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