Turning winds in Venezuela?

Tuesday 3, August 2004

I am preparing to leave on a work trip for a few short days. And two days off, I need a vacation. But I have planned ahead. I have a few people that will be sending me summaries of the daily news and if I can get good internet access I will be able to piece together the basic news. And by the middle of next week, in the final stretch I will be blogging daily again, and even many times a day as I do when major "developments" take place.

But I leave without too much worry. I sense that the ground is shifting under chavismo feet. I mean, this close from the end if chavismo were feeling confident it would not be doing the things it has been doing, for example just today:

1) This morning, Carlos Escarra, a chavista lawyer who has tried continuously to ingratiate himself with the power that is was on the state TV with a big NO sticker on his lapel in some sort of debate. Regardless what the debate was about I am sure that many in the audience are still picking up the pieces of their jaw as it fell on the floor. When asked point blank why people had to vote for NO, he said that one of the more important reasons was to stop corruption. I kid you not! Corruption has been denounced often enough in this blog, in Miguel's blog recently and very well, on the papers, etc, etc,... Who does he think he is kidding? I have had chavistas accepting the fact that this was the most corrupt government in our history but that they did not mind because it was "their guys" doing the looting!! And personally I have witnessed cases of corruption (always in cash, of course so there is no point for me to denounce it, not that the judicial system would do anything about it as you can ask to all the journalists that have presented complete dossiers that are languishing in bureaucracy heaven). No Mr. Escarra, this morning was one of your worst moments, to reach such a point to have to lie so blatantly tells volumes of how desperate your side is getting.

2) The ineffable Jesse Chacon went again against the telecommunication concern CANTV. Apparently they are insisting that CANTV is going to fudge transmission. Forgetting that a manual count of printed ballots would protect them of such type of fraud and that it was the government alone who insisted to "automatized" a YES/NO ballot. Chavez on Sunday again menaced CANTV of something short from re-nationalization. Do they think that people are going to believe that CANTV could pull out such a stint, even if they wanted too? After having transmitted all elections in Venezuela without any serious complaint from any side? Pleaaaaseeee.....!!!!! No, what is going with this type of accusations against CANTV and others is to try to create an atmosphere of tension and doubt that might allow the government to postpone, if not cancel altogether the referendum.

3)But the best of the day (so far, as there are a few hours left) was the most twilight zone assemblyman Pedro Carreno (of Montesinos and Direct TV cases) announcing that in a show of democracy and conciliation they decided to postpone the nomination of the new 12 justices until after the 15. I supposed the effect was to show confidence but the effect was missing. Journalists did not buy it for a second. The real explanation? A bruising nomination fight so close from election can only go against chavismo. Also all must go to battle and every single chavista representative must be hitting the road in the last days of campaign.

And many other little details such as cancelling via judicial fiat the elections in the University of Carabobo to avoid the sepctacle of yet another major campus trashing, yes, trashing the chavismo candidates as it happened in 4 major campus so far this year! Or the same state TV, "moderator" Ernesto Villegas was this morning reading a list of polling companies, most of them perfect unknowns until this campaign that give to Chavez anywhere from 10 to 25% advance. Really Ernesto, why is it that with such a lead your side is behaving as if it were trailing by the same margin?

So I am leaving with a slight optimism. It is still too early of course, and we need at least to beat Chavez by 10% to have a chance to reach some political truce. There is a long way to go yet, but it does seem that we might be on the right track.

Only 12 days until the Recall Election on Hugo Chavez. Do I want him out? SI!