Conclusions for a busy day: all lost something

Thus I end one of the longest posts ever, and without pictures.

I still cannot go to bed without some preliminary conclusion. And I am putting them separate from the post of the day.

One defeat

Chavismo which supposedly has between 45% and 70% in the opinion polls cannot explain how come AT LEAST 70% stayed home. This in a "democracia participativa" which as of tonight is an oxymoron in Venezuela. Thus I am not bothering translating the term. But there is no way chavismo can wiggle out of this one. Any explanation will either reflect on Chavez as the only motor, the chavismo inefficacy, the inability to ensure votes unless some bribe is at stake even if they like Chavez, and all sorts of equally unappetizing conclusions.

Thus even with maybe as much as 80% seats won chavismo shows more weakness than what it would care to admit. A giant with clay feet?

No victory at all but a view on a less bleak future

The opposition in its debacle sees a few rays of hope, or at least the beginnings of a way to recovery, perhaps even sooner than expected.

Union paid off in Zulia, in particular in Maracaibo where in spite a solid abstention, it manages to ravish the municipal council to the chavista mayor Di Martini. If this is confirmed, it is a serious set back for chavismo. Rosales seems in position to not only dictate how lists for the December election will be made in Zulia, but now his star is going to rise in Venezuela at large. He is the undefeated governor of the biggest state, the one in the middle of the PDVSA controversy and at least the locals seem pissed at Chavez.

In spite of uneven results those who preached abstention have some thing to be thankful of. The abstention is huge, huge enough in spite of all of the CNE maneuvers that it means a certain disgust with the CNE and how things are managed around, even among chavistas.

Primero Justicia run very, very well, where it run. It even got the majority in the Lecherias council proving that it can grow out of Caracas. Small start but a start (we need to see if they get a council person here and there to support this better).

AD spokes people are nowhere to be seen around (Copei did report from Tachira). Proyecto Venezuela lost the majority in its town council of El Hatillo to PJ! And seems to have lost more positions in Carabobo. Thus it seems that PJ did win its encounter with the old opposition. How will this translate?

Now PJ has improved its voice greatly in organizing the parliamentary challenge of December, in that any union now will pass through them, and Rosales in Zulia. Rosales has shown his ability to unite all in Maracaibo and elsewhere in Zulia. In other words for AD, Copei, the united left, Proyecto Veenzuela and some other minor players their choice is either to fall in place with PJ or Rosales or the asbtention leaders who must now start acting seriously. And imagine Rosales and PJ deciding on an electoral alliance?

In its darkest hour, the opposition sees some light and this by itself is quite an attenuation of the stinging defeat.

More comments, and revision of those above if needed tomorrow, with a rested head.

PS: added this morning. El Universal article by Roberto Giusti pretty much confirms my conclusions. It includes also a vivid account of the contrast between busy Sunday streets and empty voting centers, in popular Caracas areas.