Perhaps Calderon is leading this morning AMLO by a meager 1.04%, but the hard truth is that this lead is due to the crossover vote of disaffected PRI supporters that went over to AMLO, even if they still voted for their party in Congress. After all AMLO and many PRD used to belong to the PRI, let's not forget that (as, by the way, many chavista belonged to AD or COPEI in Venezuela, there is no such a thing as "spontaneous generation of voters").
If you want to visualize this cross over, nothing better but to look at the graph of how the Representative chamber of Mexico will look. The PAN and Calderon could actually reach a working majority without much trouble. It looks that Lopez Obrador would need more than the PRI to rule... I think that he should concede gracefully: the PRD can come next time once the PRI finishes its dissolution.
PS: more congratulations to the Mexican IFE. It is holding its cool under the pressure and the only one that seems to be losing his cool is AMLO. From the press and media there seems to be a general sense of trust and confidence in the workings of the IFE, something that in Venezuela is completley inexistent with the CNE which is pretty much assimilated now to a branch of the Chavez administration, even by chavistas which find it normal.........
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